Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Ok, we have a different way of working. I would cite the source and quote the exact reference.

You mean this :-
https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

And does this report say that Sweden had 4,000 excess deaths on top of the reported covid deaths? So, 9000 extra deaths compared to other years.

That was the source and the exact reference.
Now there is nothing I know of that would be the case of excess deaths in Sweden in the first half of a year more so than the second half.
Covid-19 deaths in Sweden until end of June were around 5,500. So working from that, do your own calculation for excess deaths for the first half of this year and let me know.

bb1234567

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Demographics meant it would be unlikely to have a repeat of what happened in Northern Italy in Ireland.

The region in northern Italy that had overcrowding issues had an elderly population, one of the oldest in Europe, of 10m in an area the size of Munster.

Density of Dublin region is higher than Lombardy , hospitals in New York were overrun despite the population being several years younger than Ireland on average, and among the youngest in western world.

Not saying it'll happen, personally don't think it would , plenty of places have bucked the trend of course such as Sweden, but to say it is that unlikely here is pretty crazy considering it has happened in places all over the world by this stage and Lombardy is not in any way exceptional now as it was in April , some Irish people still thinking we are somehow certain to be an exception to this.

Anyway the reason Lombardy was overwhelmed is because it came as a surprise , lack of preparation. The density and age profile is not exceptional in a European context at all.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t know what you believe that proves, but I have a feeling it`s not what you think it does.


Over 65 deaths in Ireland 1,644.
Over 65 deaths in Sweden 5,202.
Do the maths and it is exactly the figure I gave you. 62% more deaths in Sweden of over 65`s than Ireland.
If HIQA`s figures are correct the same applies. 2.4 times more deaths of over 65`s in Sweden than Ireland.

You do know the population of Sweden is twice that of Irelands? And they have 50% more over 65?

Fintan's point is correct. You are as likely to die of covid19 in Ireland as Sweden if you are over 65. Pro rata there's no difference in rates.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

We asked people to social distance here before the lockdown and not have large gatherings in pubs, clubs and public spaces. All were jammed the weekend before lockdown.

Yes because some Irish people can't be trusted to follow public health advice. Far more Swedish people can obviously hence no reason to impose strict rule. Its been said Swedes are less sociable than Irish so less of a need to impose lockdown.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

It has also been covered in the Swedish paper The Local SE. If there is a second wave that hits the country evenly the estimate from the Swedish Public Health Agency is for a further 5,800 deaths.

Projections don't equal fact. Sweden was projected to have 100,000 deaths in a couple of months if it didn't lockdown. It now stands at 5750.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You do know the population of Sweden is twice that of Irelands? And they have 50% more over 65?

Fintan's point is correct. You are as likely to die of covid19 in Ireland as Sweden if you are over 65. Pro rata there's no difference in rates.

You do know that Swedish deaths per 100,000 of population is 56.01 and based on HSE figures Ireland`s is 35.97 ?
On HIQA figures Ireland`s death per 100,000 would be as low as 25.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Projections don't equal fact. Sweden was projected to have 100,000 deaths in a couple of months if it didn't lockdown. It now stands at 5750.

You do know that figure is from the Public Health Agency of Sweden ?

That would be the same Public Health Agency of Sweden you have lauded for their strategy in dealing with this virus.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

You do know that Swedish deaths per 100,000 of population is 56.01 and based on HSE figures Ireland`s is 35.97 ?
On HIQA figures Ireland`s death per 100,000 would be as low as 25.

Charlie I can requote bit cynicals graph but I dont think it will help.

Bottom line is, with the official figures, a Swedish citizen over 65 is as safe as an irish citizen.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Yes because some Irish people can't be trusted to follow public health advice. Far more Swedish people can obviously hence no reason to impose strict rule. Its been said Swedes are less sociable than Irish so less of a need to impose lockdown.

Which is why it is pointless comparing Ireland with Sweden on a like for like basis.
It would make more sense to compare the Nordic countries as like for like.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Charlie I can requote bit cynicals graph but I dont think it will help.

Bottom line is, with the official figures, a Swedish citizen over 65 is as safe as an irish citizen.

You can quote whatever you like Fintan. It will not change the fact that Sweden had anything from 62% to 2.4 times greater deaths than Ireland.
Much greater again when compared to their neighbours.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

You can quote whatever you like Fintan. It will not change the fact that Sweden had anything from 62% to 2.4 times greater deaths than Ireland.
Much greater again when compared to their neighbours.

Well this has hit a dead end anyway

CalamariFritti

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t know what you believe that proves, but I have a feeling it`s not what you think it does.


Over 65 deaths in Ireland 1,644.
Over 65 deaths in Sweden 5,202.
Do the maths and it is exactly the figure I gave you. 62% more deaths in Sweden of over 65`s than Ireland.
If HIQA`s figures are correct the same applies. 2.4 times more deaths of over 65`s in Sweden than Ireland.

You need to take into account how many over 65s there are in each country. You cant just say 'over 65s'. Sweden 2m Ireland 650k. Comes out pretty much at the same rate.

The way you wrote it up its flawed.

charlie14

CalamariFritti wrote: »

You need to take into account how many over 65s there are in each country. You cant just say 'over 65s'. Sweden 2m Ireland 650k. Comes out pretty much at the same rate.

The way you wrote it up its flawed.

It`s only flawed if you consider those over 65 expendable.


I don`t so the facts are, as I`ve said, Sweden has anything from 62% - 240% more death than Ireland.
Greater again on a like for like basis with their Nordic neighbours.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

It`s only flawed if you consider those over 65 expendable.

Charlie sorry to offend to you but this is waffle

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Charlie sorry to offend to you but this is waffle

Why is it waffle ?


Deaths per 100,000 of population.
Sweden 56.01
Denmark 10.58
Finland 5.60
Norway 4.79
Ireland 35.92 or 25 whichever agency you wish to believe.


Are you saying those figures are incorrect ?

CalamariFritti

charlie14 wrote: »

It`s only flawed if you consider those over 65 expendable.


I don`t so the facts are, as I`ve said, Sweden has anything from 62% - 240% more death than Ireland.
Greater again on a like for like basis with their Nordic neighbours.

I don't agree with you in that it makes a statement as to anyone's expendability.

Its been said that Swedens approach has 'extra deaths' over Ireland and is therefore debunked. This is saying that there aren't any extra deaths. This is saying that the vast vast majority of deaths occur over 65 everywhere and Sweden has disproportionally more of those compared to Ireland.

It's simply lining up the numbers more correctly when trying to compare the success or not of one approach over another. It's not trying to imply expendability.

charlie14

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I don't agree with you in that it makes a statement as to anyone's expendability.

Its been said that Swedens approach has 'extra deaths' over Ireland and is therefore debunked. This is saying that there aren't any extra deaths. This is saying that the vast vast majority of deaths occur over 65 everywhere and Sweden has disproportionally more of those compared to Ireland.

It's simply lining up the numbers more correctly when trying to compare the success or not of one approach over another. It's not trying to imply expendability.

You and Fintan can play around with numbers all you like but if you do not consider over 65`s expendable then the figures speak for themselves. Sweden has a much greater rate of deaths than Ireland. Even more so when compared to their neighbours

CalamariFritti

Its not playing with numbers. Sweden has 2 times our population but 3 times the number of our 65s. So when almost all deaths occur in that age group wouldn't it make sense that Sweden has 3 times our deaths, too?

tobefrank321

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Its not playing with numbers. Sweden has 2 times our population but 3 times the number of our 65s. So when almost all deaths occur in that age group wouldn't it make sense that Sweden has 3 times our deaths, too?

Yes.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

You and Fintan can play around with numbers all you like but if you do not consider over 65`s expendable then the figures speak for themselves. Sweden has a much greater rate of deaths than Ireland. Even more so when compared to their neighbours

Its not playing its basic understanding of statistics.


And I have no idea what the boloxoligy about being expendable is about, its an incredibly immature statement

greyday

Sweden has close to 50% single person households, how many have we?

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

You do know that Swedish deaths per 100,000 of population is 56.01 and based on HSE figures Ireland`s is 35.97 ?
On HIQA figures Ireland`s death per 100,000 would be as low as 25.

You are just going to ignore the fact Sweden has 50% more over 65s and therefore logically should have 50% more deaths, arent you?

FintanMcluskey

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You are just going to ignore the fact Sweden has 50% more over 65s and therefore logically should have 50% more deaths, arent you?

Or the fact that a person over 65 is just as likely to die from Covid in Ireland.

mcsean2163

I've just gone through pages of this mad argument.

Let's make it really simple and exclude the portion of deaths below age 65.

Let's assume all over 65s die. Let's assume a population of 100 in Ireland and 200 in Sweden.

From previous poster.

In Ireland 13 die, 13% over 65.
In Sweden 40 die, 20% over 65. Normalise per 100

13 v 20

Swedish death rate will be 54% higher due to demographics assuming all things equal.

A primary school child could understand the above. Charlie14, please stop ruining this thread.

Point 2: rip.ie study. I suspect a major flaw could be BAME that do not use rip.ie. Let's wait for excess mortality euro mono figures.

Point 3: average age in Lombardy 45.4 is really high. E.g Ireland 36.5

charlie14

Lads or lassies ye can dance around here all you like highlighting deaths of over 65`s saying on one hand you do not believe they are expendable, yet at the same time they are because Sweden has more over of their population over 65 than we do.

If you really do not believe 65`s and over are expendable, then the simple facts are that population wise Sweden has a very minimum of 62% more deaths than Ireland.

When compared to their Nordic neighbour. They have 12 times the deaths of Norway, 10 times the deaths of Finland and 5 time those of Denmark.
Those are the harsh facts folks and no amount of playing around with numbers changes them.

Any of you care to give a reason why there is such a huge disparity in numbers for 4 neighbouring countries that have otherwise so much in common ?

SeaBreezes

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Its not playing with numbers. Sweden has 2 times our population but 3 times the number of our 65s. So when almost all deaths occur in that age group wouldn't it make sense that Sweden has 3 times our deaths, too?

If every 65 year old plus got infected yes. Then we might expect the ratios.

But in Ireland we went into lockdown to stop our young people spreading it to our over 65s.

Would hate to be over 65 in Sweden.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

That was the source and the exact reference.
Now there is nothing I know of that would be the case of excess deaths in Sweden in the first half of a year more so than the second half.
Covid-19 deaths in Sweden until end of June were around 5,500. So working from that, do your own calculation for excess deaths for the first half of this year and let me know.

Honestly, I'm struggling here to understand what you are trying to say.
You refer to first half and second half of a year so, best I can come up with is that you added deaths for Jan - Jun 2020 and compared them to Jul - Dec 2019??

If so, give us the exact numbers, compare them to other year's in Sweden and do the same for Ireland.

But to answer your question, I would assume deaths are influenced by weather, and perhaps variations of the regular flu. And of course in this year by covid 19.

And exact reference? No, that's not what you did.

nw1dqsv7amx026

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You are just going to ignore the fact Sweden has 50% more over 65s and therefore logically should have 50% more deaths, arent you?

Either he can't understand or won't consider that.

nw1dqsv7amx026

greyday wrote: »

Sweden has close to 50% single person households, how many have we?

I'd guess you would get that here

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/surveys/qnhs-householdsandfamilyunits/

But I'm not going to get it for you.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Honestly, I'm struggling here to understand what you are trying to say.
You refer to first half and second half of a year so, best I can come up with is that you added deaths for Jan - Jun 2020 and compared them to Jul - Dec 2019??

If so, give us the exact numbers, compare them to other year's in Sweden and do the same for Ireland.

But to answer your question, I would assume deaths are influenced by weather, and perhaps variations of the regular flu. And of course in this year by covid 19.

And exact reference? No, that's not what you did.

You have the source.
For 2019 total deaths in Sweden were 88,766. I don`t see where there should be much of a discrepancy between the first 6 months of 2019 and the second, so that would equate to 44,383 deaths for the first 6 months of 2019.
17 days after the first 6 months of 2020 Sweden`s total deaths are 56,408.
That is 12,000 more deaths. First 6 month deaths by Covid-19 in Sweden were 5,500.

Other than deaths for 17 days of July, that leaves 6,500 excess deaths.