Sweden avoiding lockdown

Ce he sin

tobefrank321 wrote: »

.....We are now seeing an average of 50 cases a day in Ireland but no deaths. Because in Ireland we managed to eventually sort out PPE and protected nursing homes....

.

You do realise that deaths follow reported cases by weeks or even months, right? The welcome absence of deaths in the past few days has rather more to do with the low reported case numbers in the past few weeks than with the recent upsurge. Also, most of the recent cases are younger. The danger is as it always has been, that younger people get the disease first because they're less likely to take precautions and then spread it.

tobefrank321

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Interestingly a citizen over 65 has been safer in Italy than Ireland from Covid.

The spin the media have put on the death stats was incredibly clever

The misfortune countries like Sweden and Italy had was to successfully keep a lot of their citizens alive into old age. These elderly citizens were the perfect target for covid 19.

Bit cynical

A piece of news coming out on Wednesday is the preliminary second quarter GDP figures. The most severe forecast is for -8.5% annualised quarter on quarter from Nordia. The most benign is Capital Economics with -4% q on q who are also predicting -1% for the year.

While critics have been quick to jump on the fact that Sweden will not gain economically from the pandemic, their losses have to be compared to the carnage of -12.1% average in the lockdown eurozone countries. In addition to economic damage which will affect their ability to fund healthcare, many of these countries will have built up little immunity and are therefore vulnerable to second waves.

Bloomberg: Virus Hit to Sweden’s Economy Seen Among Least Bad in Europe

"Data this week could confirm how Sweden’s contentious decision to avoid a full lockdown at the start of the coronavirus pandemic has spared its economy from the worst of the fallout.

"On Wednesday, Sweden will publish a keenly anticipated flash indicator for second-quarter GDP, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a 7% contraction, according to median estimates."

FintanMcluskey

Bit cynical wrote: »

Another important bit of news is due tomorrow, the first preliminary second quarter GDP figures for Sweden are out.

If it tanks some of us wont be seen for dust on here

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Interestingly a citizen over 65 has been safer in Italy than Ireland from Covid.

The spin the media have put on the death stats was incredibly clever

Since day one it’s been media spin and extremely clever number manipulation.

Look at Italy/USA.... “you don’t want to end up like them”...

Bit cynical

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

If it tanks some of us wont be seen for dust on here

I would be interested in Charlie14 view of which of the forecasts in the Bloomberg argument will be most accurate.

Charles Babbage

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Interestingly a citizen over 65 has been safer in Italy than Ireland from Covid.

The spin the media have put on the death stats was incredibly clever

Dodgy stat alert.

Please provide your stats.

FintanMcluskey

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Dodgy stat alert.

Please provide your stats.

Using bit cynical's data for Ireland

Population over 65 -637567

Death total over 65- 1644 gives a death rate of
257 per 100k over 65

I got the Itilian data on statista

Population over 65 13.2 million
death total over 65 - 30000 gives a death rate of
227 per 100k over 65

Its still not incredibly accurate as the data for Italy is recorded between 60-69 so Ive halved the data set for the calculation, also data is from mid July

bb1234567

Though it is important to note that excess deaths in Italy are 45,000 for the period March-June, which is 10,000 more than the official number of COVID victims. At least a significant amount of these will be unreported COVID deaths in the chaos at the beginning.

FintanMcluskey

bb1234567 wrote: »

Though it is important to note that excess deaths in Italy are 45,000 for the period March-June, which is 10,000 more than the official number of COVID victims. At least a significant amount of these will be unreported COVID deaths in the chaos at the beginning.

If all those 10 k surplus deaths are accounted to Covid over 65 victims it would make the statistics
303 deaths per 100k for Italy
257 deaths per 100k for Ireland

On the other hand we will have to wait until year end to see the complete surplus deaths

And its possible there will be no surplus deaths in 2020 just a peak in March - April. But we have to wait and see

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

I have looked at the Euromomo deaths for Sweden, and for prior years there are no major spike differences between deaths in the first half of a year and the second.
This year from bb1234567 calculations there are 2,000 excess deaths over and above Sweden`s reported Covid-19 deaths.
My guess is that a fair proportion of those are Covid-19 deaths as I have not heard of anything else as regards Sweden that would account for that level of deaths.

It's amazing how two people can look at the same thing and draw different conclusions. One other year in particular has two defined spikes when I look...

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Should what be apparent?

Im not really sure, is there any outliers?

Sweden have 2 million citizens over 65 - 5700 deaths
Norway has 923000 over 65 - 256 deaths
Denmark has 1.1 million over 65. 616 deaths
Finland has 1.2 million over 65. 329 deaths
Ireland has 650k over 65. 1700 deaths

I cant answer your question Charlie, the stats are baffling.

Ireland hasnt done well but the stats from Norway, Denmark and Finland are excellent.

Are they only recording deaths exclusively from Covid, and not all postive case that happened to die?

If your theory that Ireland`s lockdown did not save any more lives in the 65 plus age group than Sweden with no lockdown due to Sweden having a higher percentage of their population in that age group, then should that theory not also hold true for Sweden`s Nordic neighbours ?

It`s a simple enough question Fintan.
If this theory holds true then it should do so for Sweden`s closest neighbours as well.
Their stats are no more baffling than Ireland`s or Italy`s.


Btw according to HIGA Ireland may have over counted deaths.
Perhaps the question you asked should be asked of Sweden.
With excess deaths of 2,000, are they only recording deaths exclusively from Covid, and not all positive cases that happened to die.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

It's amazing how two people can look at the same thing and draw different conclusions. One other year in particular has two defined spikes when I look...

One year has practically the same spike for the first 6 months as it does for the second six months.

The other years have practically all months within the baseline with no difference between the first and second 6 months.



Do you know of some reason for the first 6 months of this year that has caused 2,000 excess deaths over and above 5,500 Covid-19 deaths ?

ittakestwo

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Should what be apparent?

Im not really sure, is there any outliers?

Sweden have 2 million citizens over 65 - 5700 deaths
Norway has 923000 over 65 - 256 deaths
Denmark has 1.1 million over 65. 616 deaths
Finland has 1.2 million over 65. 329 deaths
Ireland has 650k over 65. 1700 deaths

I cant answer your question Charlie, the stats are baffling.

Ireland hasnt done well but the stats from Norway, Denmark and Finland are excellent.

Are they only recording deaths exclusively from Covid, and not all postive case that happened to die?

Comparing Ireland and Sweden or any two countries that are not neighbours with cultural similarities is pointless in accessing their approach.

The best gauge of the Swedish approach is to compare them with neighbours who had a stricter approach to see what difference Sweden's lenient approach made. If you compare Sweden with Norway who had a strict approach like Ireland, you will see Norway had a significantly lower rate than Sweden. The peak was also 2 months before Sweden's (April v June). It is obvious that if Ireland took a similar approach to sweden we also would have had a higher infection rate than we did and would have also probably not peaked till June instead of April.

If you say well Sweden's death rate in the over 65's was similar Ireland. That just means the two countries were not at the same starting position in beginning of March when european countries first started lockdowns.

JimmyVik

Ireland (and most other countries) made an effort to break the chain of transmission early.
I think they were very successful so far in that effort.

Sweden made no such effort. This exposed their vulnerable to the virus even more with the resulting deaths. Now not all could have been avoided, but breaking that chain early on would have certainly spared a lot of people. Though Swedes have in general realized that their losses were very high and had taken upon themselves to help break the chain of transmission. That now seems to be working.
Their government did indeed perform a large expensive experiment that cost a lot of lives.

FintanMcluskey

ittakestwo wrote: »

Comparing Ireland and Sweden or any two countries that are not neighbours with cultural similarities is pointless in accessing their approach.

The best gauge of the Swedish approach is to compare them with neighbours who had a stricter approach to see what difference Sweden's lenient approach made. If you compare Sweden with Norway who had a strict approach like Ireland, you will see Norway had a significantly lower rate than Sweden. The peak was also 2 months before Sweden's (April v June). It is obvious that if Ireland took a similar approach to sweden we also would have had a higher infection rate than we did and would have also probably not peaked till June instead of April.

If you say well Sweden's death rate in the over 65's was similar Ireland. That just means the two countries were not at the same starting position in beginning of March when european countries first started lockdowns.

In theory thats a great idea

Its not whats happening though is it, the whole response to covid has been to compare how "well" Ireland has done compared to those other countries.

FintanMcluskey

JimmyVik wrote: »

Ireland (and most other countries) made an effort to break the chain of transmission early.
I think they were very successful so far in that effort.

Sweden made no such effort. This exposed their vulnerable to the virus even more with the resulting deaths. Now not all could have been avoided, but breaking that chain early on would have certainly spared a lot of people. Though Swedes have in general realized that their losses were very high and had taken upon themselves to help break the chain of transmission. That now seems to be working.
Their government did indeed perform a large expensive experiment that cost a lot of lives.

Thats all very interesting, but a citizen in Sweden over the age of 65 is just as safe as a citizen over 65 in Ireland.

JimmyVik

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Thats all very interesting, but a citizen in Sweden over the age of 65 is just as safe as a citizen over 65 in Ireland.

Sure. Thats why so many of them died.

Charles Babbage

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Using bit cynical's data for Ireland

Population over 65 -637567

Death total over 65- 1644 gives a death rate of
257 per 100k over 65

I got the Itilian data on statista

Population over 65 13.2 million
death total over 65 - 30000 gives a death rate of
227 per 100k over 65

Its still not incredibly accurate as the data for Italy is recorded between 60-69 so Ive halved the data set for the calculation, also data is from mid July

Fair play for having the numbers.

The point about Italy is that the disease was only severe in areas around Lombardy. But in those areas where things were bad many people died untested, and this would be especially true of older people, in some towns excess mortality was 10 times official Covid deaths.

To really prove this point you would need excess mortality figures for these age groups in both countries.

FintanMcluskey

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Fair play for having the numbers.

The point about Italy is that the disease was only severe in areas around Lombardy. But in those areas where things were bad many people died untested, and this would be especially true of older people, in some towns excess mortality was 10 times official Covid deaths.

To really prove this point you would need excess mortality figures for these age groups in both countries.

Yeah I stated before that until the excess mortality is available for the total of the year, its not an accurate comparison.

The point I was making 30k death's in Italy or 5700 in Sweden sounds like Ireland has protected its vulnerable very well.

However, when the statistics are investigated, its not the case, and with the official numbers currently available, a citizen over 65 is safer in Italy, and just as safe in Sweden as Ireland.

That may change when 2020s excess mortality is available

Bit cynical

JimmyVik wrote: »

Sure. That's why so many of them died.

While Sweden had a radically different approach to what ended up being done in Ireland, it is in fact true that if you pick any particular age bracket, you had about as much chance of succumbing to the virus in Sweden as in Ireland, possibly slightly worse in Ireland for some age brackets.

It is not what we might have expected. It is not too long ago that a contributor here posted a picture of a packed Stockholm tram full of people without masks and the general opinion was that there would be Armageddon, but that has not happened.

Charles Babbage

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Yeah I stated before that until the excess mortality is available for the total of the year, its not an accurate comparison.

The point I was making 30k death's in Italy or 5700 in Sweden sounds like Ireland has protected its vunerable very well.

I don't think anyone thinks that Ireland has protected its vulnerable very well, the nursing homes were a disgrace. Ireland didn't so bad generally.

niallo27

Charles Babbage wrote: »

I don't think anyone thinks that Ireland has protected its vulnerable very well, the nursing homes were a disgrace. Ireland didn't so bad generally.

I think that is his point, we are quick to knock Sweden and how they left the vulnerable to die in some kind of experiment when in fact our own government left the vulnerable to die in very similar fashion.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

It's amazing how two people can look at the same thing and draw different conclusions. One other year in particular has two defined spikes when I look...

I had another look at the Euromomo chart and noticed something I had missed earlier.

What is particularly interesting about this year is that for the first 11 weeks deaths were below the baseline.
Excess deaths did not begin until week 12 which would coincide with the first deaths due to Covid-19
The excess deaths from then until the 17th of July are, by bb1234567 calculations, 2,000 greater than Sweden`s reported deaths for Covid-19

Unless there was another factor during those few months that we are unaware of, is it not highly likely that those 2,000 deaths were also due to Covid-19 ?

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

In theory thats a great idea

Its not whats happening though is it, the whole response to covid has been to compare how "well" Ireland has done compared to those other countries.

The complete opposite is nearer the truth.

There is a concerted effort by some here to compare Ireland with Sweden to avoid comparing Sweden with its neighbours.

joeguevara

I know that I'm easily amused but I find it hilarious reading posts about excess mortality and bringing forward deaths from the second half of the year which have not yet occurred and being allocated to the first six months. It conjured up an image of a smoky room in an accountants office in Stockholm, where an elderly accountant bursts into a room screaming 'That b1tch Inge Johannsen was not supposed to die until November the 28th and she died yesterday. This is going to fcuck up all of our calculations, bring December 4th deaths forward immediately before we are found out'.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Thats all very interesting, but a citizen in Sweden over the age of 65 is just as safe as a citizen over 65 in Ireland.

Just on that topic Fintan. How does that theory stack up in relation to Sweden and the other Nordic countries?
I notice you have now done the calculations for Italy as well as Ireland, and with their much smaller numbers the Nordic countries should be no problem for you.

charlie14

joeguevara wrote: »

I know that I'm easily amused but I find it hilarious reading posts about excess mortality and bringing forward deaths from the second half of the year which have not yet occurred and being allocated to the first six months. It conjured up an image of a smoky room in an accountants office in Stockholm, where an elderly accountant bursts into a room screaming 'That b1tch Inge Johannsen was not supposed to die until November the 28th and she died yesterday. This is going to fcuck up all of our calculations, bring December 4th deaths forward immediately before we are found out'.

Being easily amused you may have missed the point.
These are not predicted deaths brought forward from the second half of the year.

They are actual deaths during the first half of the year that show an excess of 2,000 deaths above reported Covid-19 deaths for the first half of the year. Or to be exact from week 12 until the 17th. of July.

joeguevara

charlie14 wrote: »

Being easily amused you may have missed the point.
These are not predicted deaths brought forward from the second half of the year.

They are actual deaths during the first half of the year that show an excess of 2,000 deaths above reported Covid-19 deaths for the first half of the year. Or to be exact from week 12 until the 17th. of July.

I think you are misunderstanding me. I completely agree with you and understand about excess mortality.

sydthebeat

its quite simple.

countries similar and comparable to sweden that locked down (norway , finland, denmark) has significantly lesser death rates in vulnerable people than sweden.

That sweden did not enact a government ordered and organised lock down directly links those deaths to that political decision.

whether those older people would have died anyway next week or next december is absolutely immaterial to the argument that the political decision is directly linked to those deaths. Those comparable scandinavian countries show this.

in ireland, the way we dealt with care homes is the big scandal of these times, but our politicians, clinicians and policy makers will have to own those mistakes... the same way those in charge of sweden's decision will have to own the decision to allow older people to needlessly die, choosing economy over lives.