Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

joeguevara wrote: »

I think you are misunderstanding me. I completely agree with you and understand about excess mortality.

Apologies for taking you up wrong.

nw1dqsv7amx026

Bit cynical wrote: »

Just on the age breakdown in Ireland and Sweden,

There was someone on here saying he was glad he lived in Ireland because he was 70. But, in fact, it probably does not make a huge amount of difference. If we control for age, Ireland and Sweden have performed roughly the same.

Sources: Ireland population (2016): CSO.ie
Ireland deaths by age bracket: Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland

Sweden Population: SCB.se
Sweden deaths by age: Statistica

This is probably the best post on this thread in analysing the results of the Swedish strategy. It's pure data.

I hadn't seen a NPHET breakdown of deaths by age before this and it was very revealing.

Breaking down the numbers I see that from an Irish population of 637,567 aged over 65, we had 1644 deaths so 0.257%.
From a Swedish population of 2,610,774 aged over 60 yrs, they had 5512 deaths so 0.211%.

So deaths were, 0.25% of over 65's in Ireland and 0.21% of over 60's in Sweden.

I looked into Charlie's opinion and links for excess deaths in Sweden. While I certainly accept that the Swedes could be under reporting, it is not possible to draw that conclusion from the available data. I couldn't find a monthly breakdown of deaths in Sweden and I think it's over simplistic to divide the 2019 deaths by 2 and then say any deaths over that for Jan-Jun 2020 are Covid related.
Deaths will fluctuate over the year so for example, with an usually bad winter or bad flu season you would expect excess deaths and then less the following year.

I found the following article interesting.

https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-1993-and-2000-compared-to-april-2020-why/

FintanMcluskey

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

This is probably the best post on this thread in analysing the results of the Swedish strategy. It's pure data.

I hadn't seen a NPHET breakdown of deaths by age before this and it was very revealing.

Breaking down the numbers I see that from an Irish population of 637,567 aged over 65, we had 1644 deaths so 0.257%.
From a Swedish population of 2,610,774 aged over 60 yrs, they had 5512 deaths so 0.211%.

So deaths were, 0.25% of over 65's in Ireland and 0.21% of over 60's in Sweden.

I looked into Charlie's opinion and links for excess deaths in Sweden. While I certainly accept that the Swedes could be under reporting, it is not possible to draw that conclusion from the available data. I couldn't find a monthly breakdown of deaths in Sweden and I think it's over simplistic to divide the 2019 deaths by 2 and then say any deaths over that for Jan-Jun 2020 are Covid related.
Deaths will fluctuate over the year so for example, with an usually bad winter or bad flu season you would expect excess deaths and then less the following year.

I found the following article interesting.

https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-1993-and-2000-compared-to-april-2020-why/

The way I interpret that data is I cant see a correlation between a lack of restrictions and a high death toll, certaintly for the countries compared

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I looked into Charlie's opinion and links for excess deaths in Sweden. While I certainly accept that the Swedes could be under reporting, it is not possible to draw that conclusion from the available data. I couldn't find a monthly breakdown of deaths in Sweden and I think it's over simplistic to divide the 2019 deaths by 2 and then say any deaths over that for Jan-Jun 2020 are Covid related.
Deaths will fluctuate over the year so for example, with an usually bad winter or bad flu season you would expect excess deaths and then less the following year.

I found the following article interesting.

https://emanuelkarlsten.se/more-swedes-died-in-one-month-1993-and-2000-compared-to-april-2020-why/

I don`t think it is quite as simple to explain away as a bad Winter or bad flu season.


If you look at the euromomo graph for Sweden deaths were below the baseline for the last 10 week of 2019 until the 12th week of 2020.
Excess deaths only move above the baseline in week 12.


From week 12 until week 30 (17th. July) excess deaths are 2,000 greater than Covid -19 deaths for those weeks.
Is it even plausible that between the start of April until the middle of July that something is causing the majority of this 35% of the excess deaths of Covid-19, other than Covid-19 ?

greyday

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The way I interpret that data is I cant see a correlation between a lack of restrictions and a high death toll, certaintly for the countries compared

When you compare Sweden to its neighbours, you can most certainly see a correlation between strict lockdowns and a big reduction in deaths.

FintanMcluskey

greyday wrote: »

When you compare Sweden to its neighbours, you can most certainly see a correlation between strict lockdowns and a big reduction in deaths.

We can compare every country that locked down to Swedens neighbours. They have done very well.

Why did all the rest if Europe's countries that locked down have such a high cost of life ie Ireland.

Why did Ireland experiment so much with its citizen's locked up?

A citizen over 65 in Ireland would have been safer in Italy, and just as safe in Sweden.

I just cant see the justification for the high cost of life in Ireland

nw1dqsv7amx026

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The way I interpret that data is I cant see a correlation between a lack of restrictions and a high death toll, certaintly for the countries compared

I'm surprised. I assumed that the virus was less widespread here compared to Sweden because of the lockdown. Could be that care homes in both countries were badly hit while the rest of the Irish population hasn't been.
I have a family friend who does some work in a very large nursing home and apparently they had huge infection rates in that home.

Or could be that lock downs made very little difference as the virus was already well established in Ireland by March.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t think it is quite as simple to explain away as a bad Winter or bad flu season.


If you look at the euromomo graph for Sweden deaths were below the baseline for the last 10 week of 2019 until the 12th week of 2020.
Excess deaths only move above the baseline in week 12.


From week 12 until week 30 (17th. July) excess deaths are 2,000 greater than Covid -19 deaths for those weeks.
Is it even plausible that between the start of April until the middle of July that something is causing the majority of this 35% of the excess deaths of Covid-19, other than Covid-19 ?

Up to now I had never heard of euromomo. I'll have a look.
Do you know how they source their data?

My point above was that if for example, there is a nasty flu or cold snap in December then there would be excess deaths. The same flu/weather in January would kill less because the at risk already succumbed.

I was questioning the logic, due to limited data, that you used to calculate excess deaths in Sweden.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The way I interpret that data is I cant see a correlation between a lack of restrictions and a high death toll, certaintly for the countries compared

Could that possibly be because you are selective about the countries you compare.
I would have though neighbouring countries with much in common would be the most telling comparison.

nw1dqsv7amx026

greyday wrote: »

When you compare Sweden to its neighbours, you can most certainly see a correlation between strict lockdowns and a big reduction in deaths.

Correlation is not causation is a common subject in statistics.

Does increased ice cream consumption lead to more drownings?

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Up to now I had never heard of euromomo. I'll have a look.
Do you know how they source their data?

My point above was that if for example, there is a nasty flu or cold snap in December then there would be excess deaths. The same flu/weather in January would kill less because the at risk already succumbed.

I was questioning the logic, due to limited data, that you used to calculate excess deaths in Sweden.

The calculations I have used here are those of bb1234567.

More conservative than mine, but to avoid confusion I have gone with those.
My point was that these excess deaths are from week 12(April) until week 30 (17th.July)
Up until week 12, week on week, Swedish deaths are below the baseline.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

I would have though neighbouring countries with much in common would be the most telling comparison.

Briefly, why do you think this?

Climate, social behaviour, ethnicity, living conditions, demographics or does the virus behave differently at certain latitudes?

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Correlation is not causation is a common subject in statistics.

Does increased ice cream consumption lead to more drownings?

Is it not more a case that a mathematical theory is being forwarded to attempt to prove that lockdown has no effect in saving the lives of those over 65 years.

A mathematical theory to hold true should do so in all similar circumstances should it not ?

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Briefly, why do you think this?

Climate, social behaviour, ethnicity, living conditions, demographics or does the virus behave differently at certain latitudes?

Would all the above not have more in common as regards the Nordic countries than the likes of Ireland or Italy who certain posters here are determined to only compare Sweden too ?

AlmightyCushion

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Correlation is not causation is a common subject in statistics.

Does increased ice cream consumption lead to more drownings?

The correct saying is 'correlation does not imply causation'. The 'does not imply' bit is important there as it means it can imply. Preventing people from mixing will affect the spread of a disease like Coronavirus. How you can argue otherwise is mind boggling.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Just on that topic Fintan. How does that theory stack up in relation to Sweden and the other Nordic countries?
I notice you have now done the calculations for Italy as well as Ireland, and with their much smaller numbers the Nordic countries should be no problem for you.

His point is the idea of an Irish person criticising Sweden is farcical.

Compliment Finland or Norway if you want but to criticise Sweden when we did no better for the elderly is frankly shameful.

FintanMcluskey

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I'm surprised. I assumed that the virus was less widespread here compared to Sweden because of the lockdown. Could be that care homes in both countries were badly hit while the rest of the Irish population hasn't been.
I have a family friend who does some work in a very large nursing home and apparently they had huge infection rates in that home.

Or could be that lock downs made very little difference as the virus was already well established in Ireland by March.

It could all be to do with the timing of the lockdown.

If you dont lockdown at the right time, there is no point is entering a lockdown at all.

Maybe Norway, Finland and Denmark timed the lockdown perfectly and the rest of Europe didnt and were better off not entering lockdown at all.

Maybe Norway, Finland and Denmark will see death rates rise once they reopen.

greyday

Sweden had an advantage over the rest of Europe with approximately 50% of households being 1 person households, they decided to experiment and have seen multiples of deaths compared to their neighbours despite their advantage.

ittakestwo

tobefrank321 wrote: »

His point is the idea of an Irish person criticising Sweden is farcical.

Compliment Finland or Norway if you want but to criticise Sweden when we did no better for the elderly is frankly shameful.

But if we had followed the Swedish approach more elderly would have died.

The two countries were not at the same starting position at the beginning of March when European countries first started lock downs. It seems Ireland was already more effected than Sweden in early March.

All you can say. If from early March Ireland had followed Sweden's approach more elderly would have died with the peak deaths occurring in June instead of April. If Sweden had followed Ireland's from early March then less elderly would have died there with a peak in April.

So from decisions taken from early March then yes we did do a better job at protecting the elderly.

FintanMcluskey

ittakestwo wrote: »

But if we had followed the Swedish approach more elderly would have died.

The two countries were not at the same starting position at the beginning of March when European countries first started lock downs. It seems Ireland was already more effected than Sweden in early March.

All you can say. If from early March Ireland had followed Sweden's approach more elderly would have died with the peak deaths occurring in June instead of April. If Sweden had followed Ireland's from early March then less elderly would have died there with a peak in April.

So from decisions taken from early March then yes we did do a better job at protecting the elderly.

Lets follow the statistics for now.

They show Sweden has protected its citizen's as well as Ireland.

Ill use statistics, you can use some very iffy whataboutery

FintanMcluskey

greyday wrote: »

Sweden had an advantage over the rest of Europe with approximately 50% of households being 1 person households, they decided to experiment and have seen multiples of deaths compared to their neighbours despite their advantage.

It wasn't an experiment. It was a cost benefit analysis.

The decided the cost of life would perhaps be less taking the approach they did.

The media convinced you the lockdown wouldnt cost any life, thats a risky chance

greyday

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It wasn't an experiment. It was a cost benefit analysis.

The decided the cost of life would perhaps be less taking the approach they did.

The media convinced you the lockdown wouldnt cost any life, thats a risky chance

It was known lockdowns would reduce deaths, no one said said a lockdown would not cost lives afaik.
Could you provide a link to where any expert said the lockdown would not cost any lives?

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

One year has practically the same spike for the first 6 months as it does for the second six months.

The other years have practically all months within the baseline with no difference between the first and second 6 months.



Do you know of some reason for the first 6 months of this year that has caused 2,000 excess deaths over and above 5,500 Covid-19 deaths ?

For any interested:

Data from 23 participating European countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality.

See attached. Note that deaths typically peak around winter. Euro mono shows only a z score with respect to baseline. Again look at attached image.

ittakestwo

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Lets follow the statistics for now.

They show Sweden has protected its citizen's as well as Ireland.

Ill use statistics, you can use some very iffy whataboutery

I am looking at the stats. Sweden's daily peak did not happen till June 25th in cases.

If you look at the curve for cases and deaths the Sweden curve does not fall as quick as their neighbors or Ireland throughout May and June.

It is fair to say their curve of deaths would have fallen in the same way as their neighbors if they had implemented a similar approach as their neighbors and Ireland. Which would have resulted in less elderly deaths in Sweden.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

His point is the idea of an Irish person criticising Sweden is farcical.

Compliment Finland or Norway if you want but to criticise Sweden when we did no better for the elderly is frankly shameful.

To each their own.
For me it is shameful of an Irish person comparing Ireland to Sweden attempting to prove lockdown does not protect the lives of those over 65, while continually refusing to do the same for Swedens neighbouring countries.


If this theory that lockdown does not protect the over 65`s, then should it not be universally apparent ?

tobefrank321

Both Ireland and Sweden made mistakes when it came to the elderly, eg sending old people.from hospitals to care homes without doing a covid test.

Sweden at least had the decency to apologise for their mistakes.

Can't see Simon Harris or Leo standing on a podium and apologising for Ireland's mistakes.

Bit cynical

ittakestwo wrote: »

I am looking at the stats. Sweden's daily peak did not happen till June 25th in cases.

If you look at the curve for cases and deaths the Sweden curve does not fall as quick as their neighbors or Ireland throughout May and June.

It is fair to say their curve of deaths would have fallen in the same way as their neighbors if they had implemented a similar approach as their neighbors and Ireland. Which would have resulted in less elderly deaths in Sweden.

It is unlikely that June 25th was the actual peak in infections. That probably happened much earlier and at a much higher rate than indicated by the case numbers which were kept flat by limited testing. The June date, rather, coincides with a large increase in daily testing.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

For any interested:

Data from 23 participating European countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality.

See attached. Note that deaths typically peak around winter. Euro mono shows only a z score with respect to baseline. Again look at attached image.

But we are not talking about Winter.
We are talking about an excess of 2,000 deaths over and above reported Covid-19 deaths from April until 17th. July.

Euromomo shows that deaths were below the baseline for each week up until week 12.
From what you have posted if peak deaths are in Winter then deaths would be greater in the second half of the year. In which case the excess deaths are even greater for the first half as the figure is based on a 50/50 split.

Widdensushi

charlie14 wrote: »

But we are not talking about Winter.
We are talking about an excess of 2,000 deaths over and above reported Covid-19 deaths from April until 17th. July.

Euromomo shows that deaths were below the baseline for each week up until week 12.
From what you have posted if peak deaths are in Winter then deaths would be greater in the second half of the year. In which case the excess deaths are even greater for the first half as the figure is based on a 50/50 split.

Even without covid if the death rate was lower than usual for at least 12 weeks in a row it was likely that it was going to be higher than usual for a time. Ireland will have higher death rates from cancer etc for next number of years due to the cancellation of hospital appointments etc. To judge whether the Swedish approach was wrong or right I think you would need to have to wait till at least 2025 to cover the relevant data. Even at that it could be decades till the mental health costs of the lockdown can be measured.

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

But we are not talking about Winter.
We are talking about an excess of 2,000 deaths over and above reported Covid-19 deaths from April until 17th. July.

Euromomo shows that deaths were below the baseline for each week up until week 12.
From what you have posted if peak deaths are in Winter then deaths would be greater in the second half of the year. In which case the excess deaths are even greater for the first half as the figure is based on a 50/50 split.

The graph shows that for those 23 EU countries the peak is expected for about 3rd or 4th week of January. This indicates more deaths should typically occur in the first 6 months of the year.

This is really basic stuff that should be obvious to a child studying math in primary school or perhaps first year in secondary school.

Simple statistics have shown us several things, perhaps we could move the debate forward and attempt to discover if there is some innate reason or adaptive immunity that Norway has over Sweden. Norway seemed to have a really low death rate despite initial high infection rates.