Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

The graph shows that for those 23 EU countries the peak is expected for about 3rd or 4th week of January. This indicates more deaths should typically occur in the first 6 months of the year.

This is really basic stuff that should be obvious to a child studying math in primary school or perhaps first year in secondary school.

Simple statistics have shown us several things, perhaps we could move the debate forward and attempt to discover if there is some innate reason or adaptive immunity that Norway has over Sweden. Norway seemed to have a really low death rate despite initial high infection rates.

Your last post "Note that deaths typically peak around winter "


Any child, not even studying math, can tell you that Winter in the Northern Hemisphere is not between April and July 17th. Nor is it in the first 6 months of the year.

Your own source, Euromomo, shows no excess deaths for the first 12 weeks of the year never mind the 3rd. or the 4th. week of January.


Excess deaths begin in April and by the 17th. July they are 2,000 greater than reported Covid-19 deaths.
With deaths typically peaking around Winter, then that figure should most likely be higher as the calculations are based on the 10 year average total deaths of a 6 month 50/50 split.

tobefrank321

Things continuing to improve for Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200310/timeline-how-the-coronavirus-has-developed-in-sweden

3 deaths today, 1 yesterday, 4 on friday, 7 on Thursday.

Only 38 people in ICU.

And new cases declining. Seems only a matter of time before Irelands daily new cases pass Swedens on current trends.

Denmark have reopened the border with Sweden.

And Sweden now predicted to suffer the least in Europe economically.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-03/virus-hit-to-sweden-s-economy-seen-among-least-bad-in-europe

Sweden and Italy now doing best against a second wave.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-04/italy-and-sweden-are-taming-the-coronavirus-s-potential-second-wave

eddie73

It is too early to say who has had the best policy or strategy in dealing with coronavirus.

If China is to be believed, they have probably displayed the best results against the odds.

Sweden went on somewhat of a solo run and have had to bear the brunt of the western media as a result of their above the odds rates of infection and deaths per million.

We will have to wait and see how the world emerges from this before we can say with certainty how they fared.

Ce he sin

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Things continuing to improve for Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200310/timeline-how-the-coronavirus-has-developed-in-sweden

3 deaths today, 1 yesterday, 4 on friday, 7 on Thursday.

Only 38 people in ICU.

And new cases declining. Seems only a matter of time before Irelands daily new cases pass Swedens on current trends.

Denmark have reopened the border with Sweden.

And Sweden now predicted to suffer the least in Europe economically.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-03/virus-hit-to-sweden-s-economy-seen-among-least-bad-in-europe

Sweden and Italy now doing best against a second wave.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-04/italy-and-sweden-are-taming-the-coronavirus-s-potential-second-wave

You have rather more confidence that Sweden won't see a second wave than I do. Looking at the figures it seems that their cases peaked rather later than elsewhere and are still on their initial decline. The experience of many or indeed most other countries is that the decline to low case figures is maintained for a matter of weeks before numbers increase again.
Not for a moment do I believe the Italian figures. They're claiming that their daily cases are still at a low level when France and Spain, places that are culturally similar,, are showing increases.

tobefrank321

Ce he sin wrote: »

You have rather more confidence that Sweden won't see a second wave than I do. Looking at the figures it seems that their cases peaked rather later than elsewhere and are still on their initial decline. The experience of many or indeed most other countries is that the decline to low case figures is maintained for a matter of weeks before numbers increase again.
Not for a moment do I believe the Italian figures. They're claiming that their daily cases are still at a low level when France and Spain, places that are culturally similar,, are showing increases.

While I think there will be post lockdown second waves in other countries its debatable how it can happen in Sweden as they never fully locked down. The countries on their green list such as Denmark have less cases than them. Its unlikely tourists from other countries will travel there given the recent bad press. Schools reopening might cause a spike so it will be interesting to watch.

Bit cynical

Ce he sin wrote: »

You have rather more confidence that Sweden won't see a second wave than I do. Looking at the figures it seems that their cases peaked rather later than elsewhere and are still on their initial decline. The experience of many or indeed most other countries is that the decline to low case figures is maintained for a matter of weeks before numbers increase again.

Based on deaths they had their peak about the same time as Ireland which was a few weeks after some other countries.

But there seems to be a belief here that numbers need drop below a certain level before they can start rising again. I'm not sure how that would work; most of the second waves around Europe would appear to have more to do with restrictions suppressing the virus being relaxed or people finding ways to circumvent them.

ceadaoin.

Ce he sin wrote: »

You have rather more confidence that Sweden won't see a second wave than I do. Looking at the figures it seems that their cases peaked rather later than elsewhere and are still on their initial decline. The experience of many or indeed most other countries is that the decline to low case figures is maintained for a matter of weeks before numbers increase again.
Not for a moment do I believe the Italian figures. They're claiming that their daily cases are still at a low level when France and Spain, places that are culturally similar,, are showing increases.

Those other countries experienced a decline due to lockdown. The rise in cases then just continued where it left off upon loosening of restrictions. Sweden, without a lockdown could possibly be more due to the virus burning out or running its course and could be an indication of what will happen elsewhere without further restrictions.

As far as I'm aware, not one of the places that experienced a large "first wave", which was already in full swing before lockdowns, (nyc, lombardy, parts of Spain) has had a resurgence as of yet, even with reopening? So shouldn't it follow that Sweden will also see a similar decline and no immediate surge of cases?

bb1234567

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Those other countries experienced a decline due to lockdown. The rise in cases then just continued where it left off upon loosening of restrictions. Sweden, without a lockdown could possibly be more due to the virus burning out or running its course and could be an indication of what will happen elsewhere without further restrictions.

As far as I'm aware, not one of the places that experienced a large "first wave", which was already in full swing before lockdowns, (nyc, lombardy, parts of Spain) has had a resurgence as of yet, even with reopening? So shouldn't it follow that Sweden will also see a similar decline and no immediate surge of cases?

Yeh there's not a lot of examples, only one I can think of is Louisianna which had a very bad first wave which was mostly stopped by lockdown and is now also having a bad second wave.

ceadaoin.

bb1234567 wrote: »

Yeh there's not a lot of examples, only one I can think of is Louisianna which had a very bad first wave which was mostly stopped by lockdown and is now also having a bad second wave.

I think its different areas affected this time though? New Orleans was the epicentre earlier in the year, and now its other cities and more rural areas where its is spreading, with New Orleans remaining stable. Same in New York -New York City seems to be done with this wave and its now moved more to upstate areas.

The New Orleans area has seen significant decreases in daily new cases since its peak during the first surge. Orleans Parish, for example, recorded 797 cases per 100,000 during the week of April 7. Its peak during the summer surge, during the week of July 16, brought only 181 cases per 100,000 – a decrease of 77%.

The same was true for the other parishes that had high case numbers during the first wave. The recent peaks for Jefferson and St. John the Baptist Parishes were 53% and 55% lower, respectively, than in the worst April weeks in those parishes.

But the parishes that were largely spared during the first wave are now recording more cases than they did in April. Calcasieu Parish – which includes one of Louisiana's most populous cities, Lake Charles – had a modest peak of new cases during the spring surge with 121 in the week ending April 7. Its peak in the summer surge, last week, was more than 900% higher, at 1,245

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/08/01/louisiana-second-covid-19-wave-worse-than-first-no-1-per-capita/5558862002/

As of now, I don't think there is any evidence of a true second wave. Rather a continuation of the first, which was basically paused by lockdowns in most places

Spiderman0081

In my opinion it would be more reasonable to compare countries who have followed the same strategy. Lockdown v lockdown, Ireland v Norway for example.
But let’s compare Sweden and it’s neighbors to keep the masses happy.
Let’s start with the amount of medial officers working in Norway compared to Sweden. Sweden has 60 while Norway has 350.
What about the death rates in Denmark and Norway, whose death rates are far below those in Sweden.
Corona crisis or not, people die faster in Swedish nursing homes than in the neighboring countries. The average length of time for which a person lives in a special accommodation before he or she dies is lower in Sweden than in Norway and Denmark. On average, the Swede who moves into a nursing home is 86 years old and the median life expectancy since moving in is 2 years. About half die within a year of moving to a special accommodation
- The residents in Sweden are older and sicker when they move in than they are in Norway.
In Denmark, the average life expectancy in nursing homes is 2.8 years. 1/3 survive less than 1 year. The time a person lives in Norwegian housing, "care housing" and "nursing home" combined, is highest among the three neighboring countries. Depending on, among other things, two reasons: They have the highest proportion of places in nursing homes, but also because Norway has a "two-step procedure" in its care. In Norway, a distinction is made between "care homes", which include many elderly people who do not have such a great need for care, and "nursing homes" where the absolutely oldest and frailest live. The average Norwegian is 83 years old when he receives help through care homes and 87.5 years old when he comes to a nursing home.
In Norwegian nursing homes, the average life expectancy from the time a person enters until they die is 2 years. The median time is 1.3 years.
Nursing homes in Norway have a little more of a hospital character, compared to Swedish nursing homes. You do not come to a nursing home until you are very ill.

In Sweden, about half of those who died in the suites of covid-19 have lived in nursing homes. In Norway, that figure is 60 percent. In Denmark, one third of deaths are found in elderly care. This testifies to the fact that Norway and Denmark have not been much better at protecting their elderly compared with Sweden, and that the large differences in death rates say something about how great the infection is in society.

In a number of countries, including Ireland around 50 per cent of the deceased have lived in nursing homes. Sweden’s neighboring countries have succeeded better because they have less infection in society. If 60 percent of those who died in Norway have had elderly care, they have not managed to protect their elderly better than they have in Sweden, relative to the population. One would have thought that they would have succeeded better in Norway because they have more nurses in the staff, they have a closer connection to doctors and healthcare. In Denmark, they seem to have succeeded a little better.
But the fact that so many Swedes fall ill and die in nursing homes does not just say something about how widespread the spread of infection is in society. The high death rates in Sweden may also be due to the fact that Swedes are older when they move into homes than in Norway and Denmark. An average of 86 years in Sweden and in Norway 83.
It is difficult to compare countries. There are differences in how the elderly care of the different countries is organized. In Norway, there is different legislation that deals with nursing homes and care homes. Home care in the three countries looks different, can involve both home health care and practical help and company at home. In Sweden and Denmark, private actors are more common in both home care and elderly care.
Norway were very quick to implement a tracing program after a covid case was detected and were very successful, stopping the spread of the virus into their care homes. But this does not prove in any way that a total lockdown was necessary. It does prove that tracing works. Quarantining the healthy for months on end is counterproductive in many ways.

Hopefully this will give some perspective as to the untold number of reasons it’s difficult to compare apples and pears.
Ireland needs to start studying the serious implications of crippling their own economy and stop trying to prove that its to only way to tackle this virus.

nw1dqsv7amx026

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The correct saying is 'correlation does not imply causation'.

The fact that you're trying to correct me in the sequence of words in a saying is mind boggling.

The 'does not imply' bit is important there as it means it can imply.

Absolutely, I agree
Red cars are involved in more accidents is true because people who buy red cars like to drive faster would be the opposite case to increased ice cream consumption causing drowning.

From the start there have been a lot of scientists who have put forward the theory that lock down does not slow the spread and this is the Swedish position.

Preventing people from mixing will affect the spread of a disease like Coronavirus. How you can argue otherwise is mind boggling.

I would have agreed with this but always felt that lock down was pointless because the virus would just start off again once lock down was lifted. For that reason the Swedish approach was sustainable imo.

However, the numbers and graphs presented in this thread by bit_cynical strongly suggest that lock down did not reduce deaths when you compare no lock down Sweden to Lock Down Ireland. I spent an hour examining those numbers myself and they look correct.

You can try to muddy this with under reporting / Nordic neighbours but I don't believe that.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

Is it not more a case that a mathematical theory is being forwarded to attempt to prove that lockdown has no effect in saving the lives of those over 65 years.

A mathematical theory to hold true should do so in all similar circumstances should it not ?

I didn't see any mathematical theories put forward.
It was simple percentages of death by number in a particular age group only??
The graph with Irish and Swedish percentages strongly suggests no difference.

Could be that Swedes are generally healthier or that they received better medical care than the Irish?

If you were to argue that as the cause I could buy into it.

SeaBreezes

Is today the day sweden economy numbers released?

Anyone know when they are out?

Edit: Nevermind found it. 8.6% contraction

http://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/national-accounts/national-accounts/national-accounts-quarterly-and-annual-estimates/pong/statistical-news/national-accounts-second-quarter-2020/

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

Would all the above not have more in common as regards the Nordic countries than the likes of Ireland or Italy who certain posters here are determined to only compare Sweden too ?

Yes I would have thought so too, but then you would need to compare small towns in Sweden with small towns in Finland/Norway say.

I've spent time in both Seden and Finland. Stockholm (and I believe Gotenborg) are not like Linkopping (Sweden) or Helsinki.
Both these cities are more similar to size to Dublin and both like Dublin have large immigrant populations.
We have a lot of sparse density population in Ireland but the centre of Dublin can be densely populated eg Parnell street.
Finns behave very differently imo to Swedes when out socialising.
Climate, from Mar-Jun is probably similar?

Age Demographics - I haven't checked. I know the Italians & Swedes have an older population than us. Likewise the British are significantly older than the Irish.

Ethnicity, I believe the Finns and Norwegians have homogeneous populations. The Swedes definitely don't.

My point is that there are a lot of variables so it's not so easy to simplify by using the neighbour argument.

nw1dqsv7amx026

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It could all be to do with the timing of the lockdown.

If you dont lockdown at the right time, there is no point is entering a lockdown at all.

Good point. So shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted.

The question is, are the other horses likely to bolt or stay in the nice warm barn anyway?

Maybe Norway, Finland and Denmark will see death rates rise once they reopen.

This is the crux of the problem with lock down. What happens after?

cnocbui

Sweden's second quarter GDP figures are out; -8.6% for the quarter and -8.1% yoy.

The EU 2Q GDP was -12.1%, so Sweden did 50% better economically. I think the kicker would be in the number of small businesses that fail permanently and the fall in incomes of the self employed, which I suspect will be far fewer, and less, in Sweden than in lockdown EU countries.

nw1dqsv7amx026

ittakestwo wrote: »

But if we had followed the Swedish approach more elderly would have died.

The two countries were not at the same starting position at the beginning of March when European countries first started lock downs. It seems Ireland was already more effected than Sweden in early March.

All you can say. If from early March Ireland had followed Sweden's approach more elderly would have died with the peak deaths occurring in June instead of April. If Sweden had followed Ireland's from early March then less elderly would have died there with a peak in April.

So from decisions taken from early March then yes we did do a better job at protecting the elderly.

This is a reasonable argument. But then once we got back to Swedish levels of infection why not follow their course? Its more sustainable.

I'm afraid we'll be going backwards before the end of September. Phase 2?

nw1dqsv7amx026

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Lets follow the statistics for now.

They show Sweden has protected its citizen's as well as Ireland.

Ill use statistics, you can use some very iffy whataboutery

I think this is true! The statistics don't show that Ireland did any better.

sydthebeat

cnocbui wrote: »

Sweden's second quarter GDP figures are out; -8.6% for the quarter and -8.1% yoy.

The EU 2Q GDP was -12.1%, so Sweden did 50% better economically. I think the kicker would be in the number of small businesses that fail permanently and the fall in incomes of the self employed, which I suspect will be far fewer, and less, in Sweden than in lockdown EU countries.

8/12 = 0.666

so they did 33% better

50% of 12 is 6

nw1dqsv7amx026

greyday wrote: »

It was known lockdowns would reduce deaths, no one said said a lockdown would not cost lives afaik.
Could you provide a link to where any expert said the lockdown would not cost any lives?

Very True. I'd guess most people didn't consider that lock downs would cause deaths. In the early days we were only (myself included) worried about corona.
I was in favour of closing schools in March.

I know from friends/acquaintances in government that this was a factor in Ireland accelerating the lifting of restrictions because rates of death from stroke and heart attack increased here during lock down.
I don't have any source so can't back this up.

nw1dqsv7amx026

tobefrank321 wrote: »

While I think there will be post lockdown second waves in other countries its debatable how it can happen in Sweden as they never fully locked down. The countries on their green list such as Denmark have less cases than them. Its unlikely tourists from other countries will travel there given the recent bad press. Schools reopening might cause a spike so it will be interesting to watch.

I would agree that schools opening will have to cause an increase in cases. Deaths maybe not so much.
I'm hoping that the government will then refuse to close the schools unless the hospitals look like getting overwhelmed.

If this is the case they will have my backing even though I don't generally agree with the approach so far.

bb1234567

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I think its different areas affected this time though? New Orleans was the epicentre earlier in the year, and now its other cities and more rural areas where its is spreading, with New Orleans remaining stable. Same in New York -New York City seems to be done with this wave and its now moved more to upstate areas.



https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/08/01/louisiana-second-covid-19-wave-worse-than-first-no-1-per-capita/5558862002/

As of now, I don't think there is any evidence of a true second wave. Rather a continuation of the first, which was basically paused by lockdowns in most places

Wow, that's interesting. I assumed because Louisianna is so small it was a true second wave. Probably means other Irish cities outside ofour epicentre in Dublin are open to a second wave then if a similar situation occurred in Louisianna with a comparable population layout and density.

Romania is another country going through a second wave that looks worst than the first, although again it is more of a continued first wave and again Romania is a pretty big country presumably it is another region that is affected than the first time round.
I think you're right that there's no example worldwide of a region that completely stopped an outbreak and then had a secondary outbreak occur there again.

cnocbui

sydthebeat wrote: »

8/12 = 0.666

so they did 33% better

50% of 12 is 6

You are mostly correct, , although it's 40%, I obviously need another coffee.

charlie14

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Is today the day sweden economy numbers released?

Anyone know when they are out?

Edit: Nevermind found it. 8.6% contraction

http://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/national-accounts/national-accounts/national-accounts-quarterly-and-annual-estimates/pong/statistical-news/national-accounts-second-quarter-2020/

There was much being made here at the end of June on Sweden`s finance minister Magdalena Andersson prediction of a contraction of 6%.

I did warn at the time that this figure should be viewed with caution coming from a minister who is part of a government responsible for Sweden`s coronavirus strategy, and pointed out that The Riksbank`s worst case scenario was a contraction of 9.7%.
I was told that The Riksbank projections "are now quite out of date".

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

There was much being made here at the end of June on Sweden`s finance minister Magdalena Andersson prediction of a contraction of 6%.

I did warn at the time that this figure should be viewed with caution coming from a minister who is part of a government responsible for Sweden`s coronavirus strategy, and pointed out that The Riksbank`s worst case scenario was a contraction of 9.7%.
I was told that The Riksbank projections "are now quite out of date".

She was stating that for the year forecast, this contraction was that for the quarter.

Bit cynical

the incredible pudding wrote: »

She was stating that for the year forecast, this contraction was that for the quarter.

I think forecasters have been predicting peak-to-trough falls in GDP due to the crisis as greater than the fall for the year. This might also be good for the Eurozone if they can keep the opening of their economies going.

Storm 10

Coronavirus: Sweden's economy hit less hard by pandemic - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

Spiderman0081

tobefrank321 wrote: »

While I think there will be post lockdown second waves in other countries its debatable how it can happen in Sweden as they never fully locked down. The countries on their green list such as Denmark have less cases than them. Its unlikely tourists from other countries will travel there given the recent bad press. Schools reopening might cause a spike so it will be interesting to watch.

I was traveling around Sweden with a caravan the last few weeks. A very large portion of the tourists I heard speaking were from Germany, USA and Denmark. They did not look at all concerned about traveling in Sweden, even with the negative press directed towards it.

Bit cynical

Storm 10 wrote: »

Coronavirus: Sweden's economy hit less hard by pandemic - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

More here:

CNBC: Sweden’s second-quarter GDP fall was its worst in modern history — but outperformed many in Europe

The record decline, broadly in line with consensus, was significantly worse than even the fourth quarter of 2008 when the Nordic country recorded a fall of 3.8% during the global financial crisis.

However, Sweden’s economy still outperformed many of its European counterparts over the three-month period through to the end of June. It follows the government’s decision not to impose a full-scale lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

David Oxley, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC via email that Sweden’s sharp GDP contraction “confirms that it has not been immune to Covid, despite the government’s well-documented light-touch lockdown.”

“Nonetheless, the economic crunch over the first half of the year was in a different league entirely to the horror shows in southern Europe,” he added.

Surprised a little that they outperformed Germany at -10% considering Germany had a comparatively mild outbreak.

Bit cynical

Probably enough has been discussed about this but following on from an earlier post here, I thought the plot posted looked like an exponential curve, so plotting instead on a logarithmic scale, we get



Sure enough we get a very straight line allowing us to fit an exponential curve with the equation indicated on the chart. Each data point is for Ireland (first) then Sweden alternating. We can observe that for the age group centred on 20, and again at 50 and 60, Sweden's deaths are a little higher. For the older ages, Ireland's and Sweden's rates are about the same. Ireland has a small edge but it is at the younger ages that this manifests itself.

The picture is a little clearer if we separate out the two sets of data and fit a curve to each.



We can see that Sweden is a little worse at the lower end of the age range but as you get older, the rates converge. This makes sense as Ireland's lockdown prevented infections and deaths across all age ranges at the expense of immunity for the younger age groups. In Sweden, schools were still open and younger age groups were still able to get out and socialise if they wished. Sweden did better at protecting the elderly considering the much higher rates of infection indicated by higher ICU numbers during the peak. However overall the lines are surprisingly similar for Ireland and Sweden across all ages despite the radically different approaches of the two countries.