Sweden avoiding lockdown

cnocbui

greyday wrote: »

You need to compare Sweden with Finland as Norway exports mainly petroleum which got hit vastly more than most other products during the pandemic.

No I don't, because I also took a peek at Oct 2019 figures.

Boggles

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I have no first hand experience of people who suffer with their mental health.
I would assume that lock down contributes to their struggle. Certainly, I find the isolation challenging and I have not been looking after my health as well as before, i.e. alcohol, diet and exercise.

I'm sorry you found it challenging, I'm not suggesting for a second people didn't.

But trust me for an enormous amount of people it was very good for their mental well being and health and society in general.

Lets be honest, Ireland's "lockdown" was timid at best, we were absolutely blessed with the weather and any notion that our liberties had been ripped from us was expelled from my mind every time I passed the local shop and saw a massive line waiting for cones.

The main gripes before "lockdown" at least in my circle, was bills, mortgage and childcare being at the top, the amount of time in the rat race, travelling to work, hours in the car and all the stress that came with that.

The brake was applied to all that for a large portion of the population almost instantaneously.

Exercise and spending time with the family became the norm, reaching out to people you hadn't heard from in years, the community spirit of helping those who couldn't help themselves.

For those with young families it was actually like being retired for a couple of months but they got to spend time with the kids before they became adults.

It was a truly unique situation and I would guess a largely positive one in terms of actual health and mental well being overall.

That's before you even consider the drop in pollution levels and the general day to day hazards of large amounts of people moving around and interacting.

greyday

cnocbui wrote: »

No I don't, because I also took a peek at Oct 2019 figures.

So put up the figures that are not distorted by one Country exporting a commodity which has been particularly hit during the pandemic.
The figures you put up seem to say Finland no worse than Sweden, they export 55 billion yearly, Sweden export 135 Billion.

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

Notice I said herd immunity rather than just immunity, some infected people are showing barely detectable antibodies which is a major concern.

I noticed but it is not necessary to have herd immunity to benefit from immunity. You could have something short of herd-immunity and, when combined with some level of comparatively light restriction, still see rates come down. If, on the other hand, you have little or no restrictions, then you need comparatively harsh restrictions to keep numbers down (the R value below 1).

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

I noticed but it is not necessary to have herd immunity to benefit from immunity. You could have something short of herd-immunity and, when combined with some level of comparatively light restriction, still see rates come down. If, on the other hand, you have little or no restrictions, then you need comparatively harsh restrictions to keep numbers down (the R value below 1).

Which is what Ireland are doing IMO, light restrictions while managing a low level of infections.
The outdoor events may be a little overkill with the 200 person restrictions but I expect that number to rise as confidence grows that the level of infection will not go exponential again.
Going all in on Herd Immunity so early with a new virus is not responsible IMO, as our knowledge grows with more data becoming available, in the future we will one far more informed to make decisions which can have such grave consequences.
There is an interesting article in the Irish Times today which is worth reading on the timing of the use of a steroid in the most severe cases, research we did not have available in March.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Roughly speaking, the most recent monthly export figures in € Billions for Sweden, Norway and Denmark, were 11.6, 5.2 and 5, respectively, so Sweden had exports of more than the other two combined.

I would have though Sweden`s exports would be much higher than those of the other two combined.
Sweden`s population is only 10% less than the combined population of Norway and Denmark.

nw1dqsv7amx026

Boggles wrote: »

I'm sorry you found it challenging, I'm not suggesting for a second people didn't.

But trust me for an enormous amount of people it was very good for their mental well being and health and society in general.

Lets be honest, Ireland's "lockdown" was timid at best, we were absolutely blessed with the weather and any notion that our liberties had been ripped from us was expelled from my mind every time I passed the local shop and saw a massive line waiting for cones.

The main gripes before "lockdown" at least in my circle, was bills, mortgage and childcare being at the top, the amount of time in the rat race, travelling to work, hours in the car and all the stress that came with that.

The brake was applied to all that for a large portion of the population almost instantaneously.

Exercise and spending time with the family became the norm, reaching out to people you hadn't heard from in years, the community spirit of helping those who couldn't help themselves.

For those with young families it was actually like being retired for a couple of months but they got to spend time with the kids before they became adults.

It was a truly unique situation and I would guess a largely positive one in terms of actual health and mental well being overall.

That's before you even consider the drop in pollution levels and the general day to day hazards of large amounts of people moving around and interacting.

Some of what you say is true in that there were/are positives to the lock down, especially if you are nervous about your health or know that your salary and job are secure. More so, if you are getting paid the same or more to not work.
But this is not free money and will have to be repaid.
There is also a social cost in that our children have been out of education since March.

As regards the virus, what if the Swedish were correct and obtain numbers approaching herd immunity levels then their numbers will stay low.

Meanwhile, when the winter comes and people retreat indoors, our numbers will probably increase leading to us locking down again.

If that happens would you agree the Swedes had the correct approach?

Boggles

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Meanwhile, when the winter comes and people retreat indoors, our numbers will probably increase leading to us locking down again.

If that happens would you agree the Swedes had the correct approach?

We have a lot milder winter than Sweden with more sunlight.

What is their Herd Immunity status at the moment?

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Roughly speaking, the most recent monthly export figures in € Billions for Sweden, Norway and Denmark, were 11.6, 5.2 and 5, respectively, so Sweden had exports of more than the other two combined.

And most recent export figures for Ireland are €12.7bn, compared to 13.1 in the same month last year.

greyday

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Some of what you say is true in that there were/are positives to the lock down, especially if you are nervous about your health or know that your salary and job are secure. More so, if you are getting paid the same or more to not work.
But this is not free money and will have to be repaid.
There is also a social cost in that our children have been out of education since March.

As regards the virus, what if the Swedish were correct and obtain numbers approaching herd immunity levels then their numbers will stay low.

Meanwhile, when the winter comes and people retreat indoors, our numbers will probably increase leading to us locking down again.

If that happens would you agree the Swedes had the correct approach?

If Sweden are proven to be correct, why would we lock down anywhere other than those places looking after the most vulnerable?

nw1dqsv7amx026

Boggles wrote: »

We have a lot milder winter than Sweden with more sunlight.

UV light probably is a factor but not as much as we hoped for. Temperature also but I don't think it will be significant enough.

What is their Herd Immunity status at the moment?

Based on their numbers I would say pretty good. Based on antibody tests they are just as f**ked as we are.

nw1dqsv7amx026

greyday wrote: »

If Sweden are proven to be correct, why would we lock down anywhere other than those places looking after the most vulnerable?

Absolutely!

cnocbui

greyday wrote: »

So put up the figures that are not distorted by one Country exporting a commodity which has been particularly hit during the pandemic.
The figures you put up seem to say Finland no worse than Sweden, they export 55 billion yearly, Sweden export 135 Billion.

Exports for Oct 2019 - billion Euros.

Norway: 7.17
Denmark: 8.94
Sweden: 13.3

greyday

cnocbui wrote: »

Exports for Oct 2019 - billion Euros.

Norway: 7.17
Denmark: 8.94
Sweden: 13.3

Choosing months is not really the way to got but you know that.

charlie14

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

Sweden’s unemployment rate is not 17%, it is 9,8%. I think you are talking about the extra people who are “korttidspermitterade”. Companies were able to reduce the amount of working hours of their employees if it was temporarily necessary. The government covers the hours lost up to approximately 90% of most wages for those hours.
These people are by no means unemployed.

I did not say they were unemployed. I said that according to Bloomberg they were on furlough (temporary layoff from work) and as such were not included in unemployment figures.
Bloomberg said that if those numbers were included, Sweden`s unemployment rate would be 17%.
If you disagree with the Bloomberg analysis I suggest you take it up with Bloomberg.

cnocbui

greyday wrote: »

Choosing months is not really the way to got but you know that.

That is the way the data is presented on the website I was using. Don't do your back in moving those goal posts to suit your agenda.

greyday

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Absolutely!

Has this not been obvious?
We are very similar to Sweden at the moment but with a far lower infection rate even with the recent spike.
The data is not available one way or another so we choose the most cautious way until the data becomes available.

AdamD

Boggles wrote: »

I'm sorry you found it challenging, I'm not suggesting for a second people didn't.

But trust me for an enormous amount of people it was very good for their mental well being and health and society in general.

Lets be honest, Ireland's "lockdown" was timid at best, we were absolutely blessed with the weather and any notion that our liberties had been ripped from us was expelled from my mind every time I passed the local shop and saw a massive line waiting for cones.

The main gripes before "lockdown" at least in my circle, was bills, mortgage and childcare being at the top, the amount of time in the rat race, travelling to work, hours in the car and all the stress that came with that.

The brake was applied to all that for a large portion of the population almost instantaneously.

Exercise and spending time with the family became the norm, reaching out to people you hadn't heard from in years, the community spirit of helping those who couldn't help themselves.

For those with young families it was actually like being retired for a couple of months but they got to spend time with the kids before they became adults.

It was a truly unique situation and I would guess a largely positive one in terms of actual health and mental well being overall.

That's before you even consider the drop in pollution levels and the general day to day hazards of large amounts of people moving around and interacting.

Maybe in a middle-class, settled down with a family whilst working from home bubble. The effect this had on mental health varies wildly depending on circumstances.

I'd be shocked if this had a largely positive influence on mental health

greyday

cnocbui wrote: »

That is the way the data is presented on the website I was using. Don't do your back in moving those goal posts to suit your agenda.

No moving of goal posts, you are presenting data from one month to prove your point which is silly.
Go with annual data if you want to prove your point as that gives a clearer picture with less chance of noise influence, I could go to weekly or daily data to refute your point and round and round we go.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Exports for Oct 2019 - billion Euros.

Norway: 7.17
Denmark: 8.94
Sweden: 13.3

On those figures you do realise that Norway and Denmark, with a combined population 10% greater than Sweden, had exports worth 22% more don`t you ?

nw1dqsv7amx026

greyday wrote: »

Has this not been obvious?
We are very similar to Sweden at the moment but with a far lower infection rate even with the recent spike.
The data is not available one way or another so we choose the most cautious way until the data becomes available.

Well, say it becomes apparent in November/December that there is immunity (partial/temporary or otherwise) in Sweden.

What politician will admit they chose the wrong path?

Anyway at that stage, the Irish population will have reduced immune systems. Seasonal flu will be due. Other winter respiratory illnesses will be causing increased hospitalization for the weak. Children will hopefully be in school most likely spreading infection of the various bugs and probably corona. People will have less patience and reduced compliance with the covid measures.

So, we let corona rip??

I wonder how that would work with "A Safe Return to Health Services - restoring services in a COVID Environment, July 22 2020"

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/

I think then is too late and we will need to wait until the spring.

greyday

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Well, say it becomes apparent in November/December that there is immunity (partial/temporary or otherwise) in Sweden.

What politician will admit they chose the wrong path?

Anyway at that stage, the Irish population will have reduced immune systems. Seasonal flu will be due. Other winter respiratory illnesses will be causing increased hospitalization for the weak. Children will hopefully be in school most likely spreading infection of the various bugs and probably corona. People will have less patience and reduced compliance with the covid measures.

So, we let corona rip??

I wonder how that would work with "A Safe Return to Health Services - restoring services in a COVID Environment, July 22 2020"

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/

I think then is too late and we will need to wait until the spring.

Politicians will only be too willing to go another way if the data supports it rather than close the economy again, I would assume any further lockdowns would be localised if they look like getting out of control.
We have more knowledge and a change of behaviour on our side now which is something we didn't have when this all started.
Even if Swedens strategy proves correct, it would be naive to think others were wrong as Sweden has gambled while others have done what was advised by experts, there is no other way IMO to describe Swedens strategy other than a gamble, they did not know if herd immunity could be achieved but ploughed ahead regardless.

nw1dqsv7amx026

greyday wrote: »

Politicians will only be too willing to go another way if the data supports it rather than close the economy again,

You really believe this? They will create some cross party committee to recommend the way forward, get some PR spin on it and then it will probably be spring anyway. The spin will be "Living with Corona" and maybe they will change the yellow posters to blue.

They didn't release a detailed breakdown on deaths by age until very recently. Why was that? I would suggest that they've known for months how dangerous it is to younger and middle aged people.

We have more knowledge and a change of behaviour on our side now which is something we didn't have when this all started.

I do agree with you here. We're not great at following the rules.

Even if Swedens strategy proves correct, it would be naive to think others were wrong as Sweden has gambled while others have done what was advised by experts, there is no other way IMO to describe Swedens strategy other than a gamble, they did not know if herd immunity could be achieved but ploughed ahead regardless.

Well they never stated that there were looking for herd immunity but I agree that they were hoping for it. They mainly stated that they were looking for a sustainable solution. Our solution is far from viable. Will we have an emergency budget?

If you look back at old interviews with Johan Giesecke, he stated Covid was probably just slightly worse than a bad flu season. He also asked how you get out of lock down once you go in. This to me is a very pertinent question as 5 months on we still aren't out of lock down.

Anyway the Swedish numbers are looking like they were correct.

i_surge

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Anyway the Swedish numbers are looking like they were correct.

Not exactly, if you look at the rate of new cases they don't look great. Ultimately it is deaths that matter and after that the numbers who have life altering complications (is there any info on the rates?) vs. the effect on the economy. Still early in that race. They have a higher baseline of infected to try get back to true normality from but they seem to be a wiser, more compliant society.

Why aren't the US states that opposed lockdown not included in the same analysis? To be objective.

greyday

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

You really believe this? They will create some cross party committee to recommend the way forward, get some PR spin on it and then it will probably be spring anyway. The spin will be "Living with Corona" and maybe they will change the yellow posters to blue.

They didn't release a detailed breakdown on deaths by age until very recently. Why was that? I would suggest that they've known for months how dangerous it is to younger and middle aged people.


I do agree with you here. We're not great at following the rules.



Well they never stated that there were looking for herd immunity but I agree that they were hoping for it. They mainly stated that they were looking for a sustainable solution. Our solution is far from viable. Will we have an emergency budget?

If you look back at old interviews with Johan Giesecke, he stated Covid was probably just slightly worse than a bad flu season. He also asked how you get out of lock down once you go in. This to me is a very pertinent question as 5 months on we still aren't out of lock down.

Anyway the Swedish numbers are looking like they were correct.

We have come a long way from the initial lockdown, when the data says we should go one way or another, we will do that.
Johan Giesecke can see how coming out of lockdown looks like now, its a slow process with bumps on the road but it can be seen that most of Europe are now firmly on the road to the new normal until a vaccine becomes available that is proven safe.
Once we protect the vulnerable we will not see deaths like we did at the start.

i_surge

greyday wrote: »

Johan Giesecke

He said all countries will have the same outcome in the end. Seems like an impossibility to me if you compare Brasil to New Zealand or USA to China.

nw1dqsv7amx026

i_surge wrote: »

Not exactly, if you look at the rate of new cases they don't look great. Ultimately it is deaths that matter and after that the numbers who have life altering complications (is there any info on the rates?) vs. the effect on the economy. Still early in that race. They have a higher baseline of infected to try get back to true normality from but they seem to be a wiser, more compliant society.

Why aren't the US states that opposed lockdown not included in the same analysis? To be objective.

I agree that it's deaths that show the trends which we also are not doing too bad in.

I also would love to see any data on life altering complications after infection. If that was happening wouldn't the government use it to get people to wear masks and stop house parties?

I haven't looked at the US situation whatsoever but I believe New York is doing well now?

i_surge

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I haven't looked at the US situation whatsoever but I believe New York is doing well now?

Sure after losing 1 in 350 of its population. But it was early in the race and knuckled down as it was very serious, i'm thinking of Florida.

Spain and Italy used hard policies to force a huge relative reduction in cases. Why are we so mediocre that we can't mimic what looks to be best practice?

nw1dqsv7amx026

i_surge wrote: »

He said all countries will have the same outcome in the end. Seems like an impossibility to me if you compare Brasil to New Zealand or USA to China.

Yes I saw that and I believe he was saying that everybody will eventually get corona. Those that are vulnerable will unfortunately die from it. And I believe he also said that it was important to stop the hospitals from being over run.

Maybe New Zealand can enforce quarantine until a vaccine.

greyday

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I agree that it's deaths that show the trends which we also are not doing too bad in.

I also would love to see any data on life altering complications after infection. If that was happening wouldn't the government use it to get people to wear masks and stop house parties?

I haven't looked at the US situation whatsoever but I believe New York is doing well now?

The data about health after infection is only now starting to come out and it doesn't look good for some with permanent organ damage seemingly more common than expected.