Sweden avoiding lockdown

nw1dqsv7amx026

bb1234567 wrote: »

I followed it since January and I would say that a lot of information was made available on the situation in Wuhan. The profile of victims was well established, we knew that most children were asymptomatic for example, just the fact Italy had such a high number of at risk individuals caused a lot of deaths, which triggered knee jerk reaction globally.

Somebody said to me that we were lucky in seeing what happened in Lombardy. My reply was that we were unlucky.

How would we have reacted if the first Irish case of Corona had been Brady’s Ham plant in Kildare.
One person with symptoms but at least quarter (80 so far) of the workforce infected and showing no symptoms. I don't think we would have shut the schools and locked down the country.

nw1dqsv7amx026

MadYaker wrote: »

It’s amazing how many experts there are on boards that know better than a team of scientists and doctors with hundreds of collective years experience.

You say that as if all the experts are saying the same thing on this or on any subject.

I guess if RTE is your only source of information it would be easy to come to that conclusion. Maybe comforting too!

But that's the point of this forum? We mightn't agree but we're free to discuss and debate.

nw1dqsv7amx026

MadYaker wrote: »

It’s amazing how many experts there are on boards that know better than a team of scientists and doctors with hundreds of collective years experience.

Looking at these numbers where would suggest the danger is?


Age # % of deaths

15-24 1 0.06
25-34 5 0.28
35-44 13 0.74
45-54 26 1.48
55-64 72 4.09
65-74 249 14.14
75-84 599 34.01
85+ 796 45.20

1761 100

gabeeg

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Somebody said to me that we were lucky in seeing what happened in Lombardy. My reply was that we were unlucky.

How would we have reacted if the first Irish case of Corona had been Brady’s Ham plant in Kildare.
One person with symptoms but at least quarter (80 so far) of the workforce infected and showing no symptoms. I don't think we would have shut the schools and locked down the country.

From the WHO

"On average it takes 5–6 days from when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show, however it can take up to 14 days."

So many of them will be on their way to getting very, very sick from about today.
So it would likely have scared the **** out of us and we'd have locked down anyway

ceadaoin.

gabeeg wrote: »

From the WHO

"On average it takes 5–6 days from when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show, however it can take up to 14 days."

So many of them will be on their way to getting very, very sick from about today.
So it would likely have scared the **** out of us and we'd have locked down anyway

Wasn't there another cluster at a meat plant earlier in the outbreak where the vast majority were also asymptomatic at the time of testing positive? Did many of them get very very sick? I remember people saying the same thing, "just wait" but I dont remember hearing any further updates about hospitalisations or deaths.

charlie14

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Wasn't there another cluster at a meat plant earlier in the outbreak where the vast majority were also asymptomatic at the time of testing positive? Did many of them get very very sick? I remember people saying the same thing, "just wait" but I dont remember hearing any further updates about hospitalisations or deaths.

Being asymptomatic does not mean the cannot spread the virus to others.

Nermal

john4321 wrote: »

I'm not highlighting this part to be confrontational only just to discuss. Did we really know this in detail in March? I didn't think we knew a lot about the virus until it hit Europe (Italy) from what I can remember.

Yes, we knew enough to choose a better path from the outset:
[url](https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112899489)[/url]

Groupthink, unwillingess of institutions to change course and no small amount of hysteria have locked us into the current path, and it's going to be really difficult to change anything now, with the sunk capital invested in the current approach.

Not an attack on you personally, but I posted four months ago how your question would emerge: (https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=113247431)

"In a few year's time, you'll be telling one another that the government acted on the best data they had and that you always privately thought the lockdown went a bit to far.

It'll be the new 'we all partied'."

The only way to mentally reconcile changing course with the vast waste of what's been done to date is to pretend that in retrospect it was the only reasonable course of action at the time.

i_surge

Nermal wrote: »

Yes, we knew enough to choose a better path from the outset:
[url](https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112899489)[/url]

Groupthink, unwillingess of institutions to change course and no small amount of hysteria have locked us into the current path, and it's going to be really difficult to change anything now, with the sunk capital invested in the current approach.

Not an attack on you personally, but I posted four months ago how your question would emerge: (https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=113247431)

"In a few year's time, you'll be telling one another that the government acted on the best data they had and that you always privately thought the lockdown went a bit to far.

It'll be the new 'we all partied'."

The only way to mentally reconcile changing course with the vast waste of what's been done to date is to pretend that in retrospect it was the only reasonable course of action at the time.

You seem to be of the belief that lockdown was the wrong decision. The beautiful downward slope would disagree with you when compared with countries that didn't want to "sink costs"

Now we are stuck, I agree, mostly a failure of ambition from what I have seen here. There are either the lovers of the status quo or the corona deniers "we have to get back to normal"..neither approach solves the current problem.

ceadaoin.

charlie14 wrote: »

Being asymptomatic does not mean the cannot spread the virus to others.

I never said anything about the spread. The workers are aware they have the virus so presumably are isolating. I was replying to the poster who said that so many of those workers are going to get very very sick and that it would scare people into lockdown if it happened earlier. Doesn't seem to have happened in previous outbreaks at meat plants is all I'm saying.

nw1dqsv7amx026

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I never said anything about the spread. The workers are aware they have the virus so presumably are isolating. I was replying to the poster who said that so many of those workers are going to get very very sick and that it would scare people into lockdown if it happened earlier. Doesn't seem to have happened in previous outbreaks at meat plants is all I'm saying.

Exactly, the asymptomatic workers will most likely remain asymptomatic.
The one with symptoms may have symptoms akin to a bad flu. They's a possibility they may require hospitalisation but unless they are over 80 or have a serious pre existing condition they will probably be fine.

nw1dqsv7amx026

So, lockdown didn't work so what will we do???

I know more but better lockdown.

i_surge

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

So, lockdown didn't work so what will we do???

I know more but better lockdown.

What do you propose? Copy Sweden?

nw1dqsv7amx026

i_surge wrote: »

What do you propose? Copy Sweden?

I would have thought my opinion was obvious??

Yes.

tobefrank321

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I never said anything about the spread. The workers are aware they have the virus so presumably are isolating. I was replying to the poster who said that so many of those workers are going to get very very sick and that it would scare people into lockdown if it happened earlier. Doesn't seem to have happened in previous outbreaks at meat plants is all I'm saying.

It should be reflected in ICU numbers if they are seriously ill.
In fact even though we've had close to 1000 cases in the last month it doesn't seem like ICU numbers went up.

mcsean2163

National debt now €231 billion

https://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/statistics

It will be 250 billion by Christmas. Who's meant to pay it? Unless the world completely changes, this Pandemic is going to be extremely expensive.

I told my daughter today that her generation will pay for it. What happens if multinationals exit Ireland, who will lend to us then?

More lockdowns, no tourism, how long can this go on?

Bit cynical

I think today is the first weekday Sweden have reported no deaths; they don't report on weekends. Their daily death rate had been falling since the peak in April and is now below many EU countries though still above the EU average. On the other hand, daily detected cases are now sharply increasing and have been for the last 10 days or so. The rise is largely among the 20-29 age group.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200806/its-a-bad-sign-sweden-sees-renewed-rise-in-infections-among-young-adults

gabeeg

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Wasn't there another cluster at a meat plant earlier in the outbreak where the vast majority were also asymptomatic at the time of testing positive? Did many of them get very very sick? I remember people saying the same thing, "just wait" but I dont remember hearing any further updates about hospitalisations or deaths.

No. If they're working in a factory they're unlikely to be old or infirm and therefore most if not all would not require hospitalisation.

Many probably got sick, but that's hardly newsworthy.

I thought those that gave it the "it's just a flu" were bad enough, but some of you are now drifting into "it's not even a mild cold" territory now.

These people have been falsely labeled asymptomatic. There's no way of knowing how they'll fare in the end, but in the incubation period all of them are simply pre-symptomatic.

gabeeg

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I would have thought my opinion was obvious??

Yes.

So you want to go into a lighter form of lockdown?

mcsean2163

mcsean2163 wrote: »

National debt now €231 billion

https://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/statistics

It will be 250 billion by Christmas. Who's meant to pay it? Unless the world completely changes, this Pandemic is going to be extremely expensive.

I told my daughter today that her generation will pay for it. What happens if multinationals exit Ireland, who will lend to us then?

More lockdowns, no tourism, how long can this go on?

That's approximately €50,000 per man, woman and child. For a small island on the periphery of Europe, we've chalked up a lot of debt. Hopefully our debt won't result in further death.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

National debt now €231 billion

https://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/statistics

It will be 250 billion by Christmas. Who's meant to pay it? Unless the world completely changes, this Pandemic is going to be extremely expensive.

I told my daughter today that her generation will pay for it. What happens if multinationals exit Ireland, who will lend to us then?

More lockdowns, no tourism, how long can this go on?

We borrowed 231 billion since March.:rolleyes:

Ha Long Bay

Nermal wrote: »

Yes, we knew enough to choose a better path from the outset:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112899489

Groupthink, unwillingess of institutions to change course and no small amount of hysteria have locked us into the current path, and it's going to be really difficult to change anything now, with the sunk capital invested in the current approach.

Not an attack on you personally, but I posted four months ago how your question would emerge: (https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=113247431)

"In a few year's time, you'll be telling one another that the government acted on the best data they had and that you always privately thought the lockdown went a bit to far.

It'll be the new 'we all partied'."

The only way to mentally reconcile changing course with the vast waste of what's been done to date is to pretend that in retrospect it was the only reasonable course of action at the time.

Just on the first part of your reply where you link back to your post from March were you aware at the time the article you linked to at the time was taken from a conspiracy theory website?


https://truepundit.com/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-severely-overreacting-to-coronavirus/

https://www.newsguardtech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/TruePundit.pdf

Nermal

john4321 wrote: »

Just on the first part of your reply where you link back to your post from March were you aware at the time the article you linked to at the time was taken from a conspiracy theory website?

The first link in the article is directly to the piece written by Ioannidis, here.

Ce he sin

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think today is the first weekday Sweden have reported no deaths; they don't report on weekends. Their daily death rate had been falling since the peak in April and is now below many EU countries though still above the EU average. On the other hand, daily detected cases are now sharply increasing and have been for the last 10 days or so. The rise is largely among the 20-29 age group.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200806/its-a-bad-sign-sweden-sees-renewed-rise-in-infections-among-young-adults

And to think that there are people posting here who say that the Swedish approach is leading to herd immunity....

Ha Long Bay

Nermal wrote: »

The first link in the article is directly to the piece written by Ioannidis, here.

Appreciate the reply just had a look at the article referenced and this in my opinion is what is wrong with the original site you quoted.

On the statnews site the headline of the opinion piece was:

"A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data"


The site you linked to on truepundit the headline was:

"Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus"

Hope you can see from just that example how things can be twisted to suit a narrative.

Spiderman0081

Ce he sin wrote: »

And to think that there are people posting here who say that the Swedish approach is leading to herd immunity....

And to think that there are people posting here who still believe that the number one goal of the Swedish approach was to lead to herd immunity....

greyday

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

And to think that there are people posting here who still believe that the number one goal of the Swedish approach was to lead to herd immunity....

And you don't?

i_surge

greyday wrote: »

And you don't?

I don't, they are no where near it.

Spiderman0081

greyday wrote: »

And you don't?

And you do?

tobefrank321

Unlikely Sweden will achieve herd immunity any time soon and they said it might happen but its not the primary goal.

The primary goal is to live with the virus and leave as much of the country open.

They appear to have got a handle on deaths and ICU numbers which is likely to do with better cocooning of vulnerable groups.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Unlikely Sweden will achieve herd immunity any time soon and they said it might happen but its not the primary goal.

The primary goal is to live with the virus and leave as much of the country open.

They appear to have got a handle on deaths and ICU numbers which is likely to do with better cocooning of vulnerable groups.

I have a bridge to sell very cheap, are you interested?
There is a very good argument that the Swedes have reported at least less then 2000 deaths from Covid than they should have while we have reported more deaths than we should have, the bridge is made of gold.