Sweden avoiding lockdown

Lash_Alert

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Ok I'll get my daughter to tell her friend what you said.
Everything's going to be fine now!

Well, i'd like to think your daughter and her friend are smart enough to be aware of the current rules. If you suspect they aren't which i guess from your comment you do, then you have a responsibility to tell them the rules.

nw1dqsv7amx026

Lash_Alert wrote: »

Well, i'd like to think your daughter and her friend are smart enough to be aware of the current rules. If you suspect they aren't which i guess from your comment you do, then you have a responsibility to tell them the rules.

Ok, you got me, I'm not biting any more,

Good night.

Lash_Alert

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Ok, you got me, I'm not biting any more,

Good night.

No biting, just discussion. Night sir

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

The bank bailout cost €41.3 billion.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/bank-bail-out-estimated-to-have-cost-state-41-7bn-says-comptroller-1.4035332?mode=amp

Unemployment, public sector wages etc. were the big costs or circa €130 billion.

We won't get another €130 billion this time I think, so what happens next year? What happens if the schools don't open?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30994285.html

If we need it, then it does not look as if we would have much problem in getting it. And at a much better rate

That 41.7 billion from the banking crisis is costing an average of 2.5% yearly to service.


9th of June this year the NTMA looked to borrow 6 billion on 10 year Treasury Bonds to offset the costs of this pandemic.
The rate was 0.285% and it was oversubscribed by 60 billion.

Breezin

Back to Sweden, and Tegnell

while other countries lifted restrictions from April, Sweden has left almost all measures in place, despite registering a rapid drop in the number of cases from over 150 cases per 100,000 people per fortnight in early July to about 30 on Friday.

“We try to put measures in place that are sustainable over time, instead of jumping from extremely high level of measures to no levels at all,” Tegnell told the Observer. “Lifting and closing things is really detrimental to trust and will also have a lot more negative effects than keeping some kind of level of measures all the time. Opening and closing schools, for example, would be disastrous.”

Tegnell also criticised the recent decisions of countries such as the UK and Norway to reimpose quarantine restrictions or reinstate advice not to travel after seeing upticks in infection.

The scale of the drop would indicate an immunity in the Swedish population of “20%, 30%, maybe even slightly more in some areas”, he suggested, indicating that antibody tests in Sweden showing much lower rates were not telling the full story.

While Sweden’s steady-as-you-go strategy is starting to look more sensible as Denmark, Norway and Finland see a resurgence in cases, Tegnell said he now doubted if there would ever be a definitive answer over which strategy was best.

“It will be very difficult to to achieve any kind of really clear-cut answer as to what was right and what was wrong,” he said. “I think we’re talking years into the future before we can get any kind of consensus on how to deal with this in the best possible way.”

Breezin

Back to Sweden, and Tegnell

while other countries lifted restrictions from April, Sweden has left almost all measures in place, despite registering a rapid drop in the number of cases from over 150 cases per 100,000 people per fortnight in early July to about 30 on Friday.

“We try to put measures in place that are sustainable over time, instead of jumping from extremely high level of measures to no levels at all,” Tegnell told the Observer. “Lifting and closing things is really detrimental to trust and will also have a lot more negative effects than keeping some kind of level of measures all the time. Opening and closing schools, for example, would be disastrous.”

Tegnell also criticised the recent decisions of countries such as the UK and Norway to reimpose quarantine restrictions or reinstate advice not to travel after seeing upticks in infection.

The scale of the drop would indicate an immunity in the Swedish population of “20%, 30%, maybe even slightly more in some areas”, he suggested, indicating that antibody tests in Sweden showing much lower rates were not telling the full story.

While Sweden’s steady-as-you-go strategy is starting to look more sensible as Denmark, Norway and Finland see a resurgence in cases, Tegnell said he now doubted if there would ever be a definitive answer over which strategy was best.

“It will be very difficult to to achieve any kind of really clear-cut answer as to what was right and what was wrong,” he said. “I think we’re talking years into the future before we can get any kind of consensus on how to deal with this in the best possible way.”

Cupatae

How ye all that were supporting idea that Ireland follow Sweden feeling now knowing ye were completely and utterly wrong ?

mcsean2163

Cupatae wrote: »

How ye all that were supporting idea that Ireland follow Sweden feeling now knowing ye were completely and utterly wrong ?

Hmmm, you may have missed it but apparently Sweden has X3 over 65 population as Ireland so as someone pointed out, when that's taken into account there's little difference in the recorded data.

I'm just hoping that the schools reopen or I might have to move to Sweden for my own sanity!

mcsean2163

Cupatae wrote: »

How ye all that were supporting idea that Ireland follow Sweden feeling now knowing ye were completely and utterly wrong ?

Hmmm, you may have missed it but apparently Sweden has X3 over 65 population as Ireland so as someone pointed out, when that's taken into account there's little difference in the recorded data.

I'm just hoping that the schools reopen or I might have to move to Sweden for my own sanity!

tobefrank321

Cupatae wrote: »

How ye all that were supporting idea that Ireland follow Sweden feeling now knowing ye were completely and utterly wrong ?

Wrong? Sweden's new cases and deaths have declined hugely and while cases are going up slightly its nowhere near as steep as elsewhere in Europe.

A large number of countries are just out of lockdown and may be heading back into lockdown. How is that "right"?

Whether schools reopen or stay open and the impact on infections will be a huge test to see who got this right or wrong.

Bit cynical

Cupatae wrote: »

How ye all that were supporting idea that Ireland follow Sweden feeling now knowing ye were completely and utterly wrong ?

I don't think anyone has suggested we copy Sweden exactly but the basic facts would suggest that Sweden has done reasonably well and better than the critics would have predicted. It is not too long ago that someone posted a crowded tram in Stockholm and people were predicting carnage. That has not happened.

1. Lower peak of daily deaths than Ireland.
2. Deaths per age group roughly the same as Ireland.
3. Less economic dislocation than Ireland.
4. Current rate of daily deaths about the same as Ireland.
5. Economically less damaged than the Eurozone on average.
6. No talk of schools not opening in September.
7. No regional shutdowns.
8. Fewer indirect deaths due to lockdown.
9. Greater level of immunity in the general population.

bb1234567

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think anyone has suggested we copy Sweden exactly but the basic facts would suggest that Sweden has done reasonably well and better than the critics would have predicted.


1. Lower peak of daily deaths than Ireland.
2. Deaths per age group roughly the same as Ireland.
3. Less economic dislocation than Ireland.
4. Current rate of daily deaths about the same as Ireland.
5. Economically less damaged than the Eurozone on average.
6. No talk of schools not opening in September.
7. No regional shutdowns.
8. Fewer indirect deaths due to lockdown.
9. Greater level of immunity in the general population.

Do you've any evidence to support that point? I have not seen any proof that there has as yet been any increase in deaths related to lockdown here, and if there were, that they were greater than Sweden's. Sweden is experiencing increase levels of excess deaths beyond what has been confirmed as those caused by COVID, Ireland is experiencing fewer excess deaths than the number of confirmed COVID deaths. So it would seem that the opposite is true at surface level.

Bit cynical

bb1234567 wrote: »

Do you've any evidence to support that point? I have not seen any proof that there has as yet been any increase in deaths related to lockdown here, and if there were, that they were greater than Sweden's. Sweden is experiencing increase levels of excess deaths beyond what has been confirmed as those caused by COVID, Ireland is experiencing fewer excess deaths than the number of confirmed COVID deaths. So it would seem that the opposite is true at surface level.

No and to be honest it is speculation on my part. The indirect deaths I would expect to see over the next couple of years rather than in the immediate period of the lockdown itself.

A very strict lockdown I would actually expect to see fewer deaths during the lockdown itself not just Covid-19 deaths but road traffic accidents, other infections like influenza, workplace accidents etc.

gl0Rob

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think anyone has suggested we copy Sweden exactly but the basic facts would suggest that Sweden has done reasonably well and better than the critics would have predicted. It is not too long ago that someone posted a crowded tram in Stockholm and people were predicting carnage. That has not happened.

1. Lower peak of daily deaths than Ireland.
2. Deaths per age group roughly the same as Ireland.
3. Less economic dislocation than Ireland.
4. Current rate of daily deaths about the same as Ireland.
5. Economically less damaged than the Eurozone on average.
6. No talk of schools not opening in September.
7. No regional shutdowns.
8. Fewer indirect deaths due to lockdown.
9. Greater level of immunity in the general population.

Can you provide source material for 5, 8 & 9? I believe they are very key points when looking at the outcome of either approach. I know Sweden didn’t exactly say immunity was a goal but none the less it’s important to compare.

Economically as I understand it, they are having the worst year in their history since the Second World War.

biko

Breezin wrote: »

Back to Sweden, and Tegnell

Mad how the biggest failure of Scandinavia now lectures other countries.

bb1234567

Bit cynical wrote: »

No and to be honest it is speculation on my part. The indirect deaths I would expect to see over the next couple of years rather than in the immediate period of the lockdown itself.

Ok well it is a pretty big claim with very little precedent outside of Ireland and Sweden that would confirm the theory that lockdown has caused any excess deaths. Seems to vary quite wildly by country, some countries with strict lockdowns had very low excess deaths, others without lockdown had very high excess deaths, though these are usually caused by the higher COVID deaths. But this can't always be fully explained just by COVID deaths, such as in Sweden, if they are recording COVID deaths as accurately as we are led to believe. I'm sure in years to come however those that delayed cancer treatment will have higher excess deaths though.

CalamariFritti

biko wrote: »

Mad how the biggest failure of Scandinavia now lectures other countries.

Why is he the biggest failure of Scandinavia?

Way too early to draw conclusions but I will give Sweden that at least they had the balls to listen to science and rationale instead of just hitting the panic button over and over again.

It even seems they come out fairly sane in all this. None of the armageddon predictions came true. Their fatality rates are similar to ours. Their restrictions seem on a much more sustainable and less intrusive level. Their numbers are trending down for a while. And by the look of it they had much more exposure to it so there is a good chance they won't see the same resurgences that others do.

At the very least its way too early to judge.

PokeHerKing

Swedens reporting is a complete sham. Why do people think a virus would act one way in one country and another way in another country??

It spreads between people in close contact, it kills a portion of those infected. That's it. Doesn't matter if you're black, brown Swedish or Irish, that's what the virus does.

Similar to the States, the only metric to watch in countries is excess mortality. That's the true death toll of this pandemic.

Politics and general reporting inadequacies can and will impact the "official stats".

Cupatae

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Wrong? Sweden's new cases and deaths have declined hugely and while cases are going up slightly its nowhere near as steep as elsewhere in Europe.

A large number of countries are just out of lockdown and may be heading back into lockdown. How is that "right"?

Whether schools reopen or stay open and the impact on infections will be a huge test to see who got this right or wrong.

Yer scrambling now ha 100% wrong don't compare it to Ireland compare it to it's neighbors, it makes for grim reading , conviently trying to compare it to Ireland please.. clutching at straws

Unless of course having 5k deaths compared to denmark finland and the likes only have 200-400 each... Is that what success looks like ? Disaster

bb1234567

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Why is he the biggest failure of Scandinavia?

Way too early to draw conclusions but I will give Sweden that at least they had the balls to listen to science and rationale instead of just hitting the panic button over and over again.

It even seems they come out fairly sane in all this. None of the armageddon predictions came true. Their fatality rates are similar to ours. Their restrictions seem on a much more sustainable and less intrusive level. Their numbers are trending down for a while. And by the look of it they had much more exposure to it so there is a good chance they won't see the same resurgences that others do.

At the very least its way too early to judge.

How can these two theories possibly not contradict one another. Number of deaths directly correlates with exposure levels from the outbreak. And so then Ireland likely had as high levels of infection as Sweden has,which you seem to think is high, and thus that makes the last of your points moot. Or else Sweden has lower levels than thought and more in line with the rest of Europe, which is generally consider to not be a high level of exposure, which also would make your last point moot.

CalamariFritti

Fair point. I need to think about that.

Bit cynical

gl0Rob wrote: »

Can you provide source material for 5, 8 & 9? I believe they are very key points when looking at the outcome of either approach. I know Sweden didn’t exactly say immunity was a goal but none the less it’s important to compare.

Economically as I understand it, they are having the worst year in their history since the Second World War.

5 I will admit to being speculative on my part. But I will try to find information on screening programmes that were curtailed to a lesser extent in Sweden than Ireland.

9 is based on ICU numbers at peak which were far in excess of Ireland yet deaths were lower.





https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0511/1137763-what-can-we-learn-from-swedens-covid-19-icu-figures/

This suggests that Sweden were dealing with higher levels of infection and therefore immunity while keeping deaths down. Their relatively low levels of testing hid fairly high levels of infection.

5. 8.6% for Sweden vs 12.1% Eurozone average.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/sweden-coronavirus-record-gdp-fall-still-outperformed-some-in-europe.html

Bit cynical

bb1234567 wrote: »

How can these two theories possibly not contradict one another. Number of deaths directly correlates with exposure levels from the outbreak. And so then Ireland likely had as high levels of infection as Sweden has,which you seem to think is high, and thus that makes the last of your points moot. Or else Sweden has lower levels than thought and more in line with the rest of Europe, which is generally consider to not be a high level of exposure, which also would make your last point moot.

I don't think deaths necessarily correlates with infection rates. A developing country without hospital capacity will have much higher deaths per infection. The IFR will be higher. Sweden expanded their ICU capacity by a factor (if I remember correctly) of three and used 80% of that increased capacity.

Bit cynical

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Swedens reporting is a complete sham. Why do people think a virus would act one way in one country and another way in another country??

It spreads between people in close contact, it kills a portion of those infected. That's it. Doesn't matter if you're black, brown Swedish or Irish, that's what the virus does.

No, they do appear to have had higher infection rates than Ireland at the peak. See graph in earlier post. Possibly they were better at protecting the more vulnerable for a given level of infection than Ireland so ended up being roughly the same in the end despite some failures on both sides. Possibly just better at treating cases.

CalamariFritti

I think a lot of things come into it. In the Mumbay slums they found 57% had an immune reaction. More or less full COVID saturation you could say. And despite the awful hygienical and medical standards they had less than 0.02% fatality rate, but in the slums only 6.5% are over 65.

bb1234567

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I think a lot of things come into it. In the Mumbay slums they found 57% had an immune reaction. More or less full COVID saturation you could say. And despite the awful hygienical and medical standards they had less than 0.02% fatality rate, but in the slums only 6.5% are over 65.

Yes it's interesting that that is the figure because Bergamo was also around 56% antibody response.

And with infections now reducing in cities like Mumbai it really seems like the often cited 60% figure may be when herd immunity occurs.

Although, based on deaths in Mumbai it appears the IFR is a little bit higher than that 0.02% .

This article states that in Mumbai, a city with a population of 12.5 million, it has experienced 6,200 deaths. Half of it's population live in slums - where 57% of people are infected. While the other half outside the slums, only 16% infection rate.

This would mean about 4.5 million infections in the city overall .
With 6200 deaths that is an IFR of approximately 0.14%.


Some of the information I used to come to that figure is in the article below. Feel free to point out errors, maths are not my strong suit
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653

gl0Rob

Bit cynical wrote: »

5 I will admit to being speculative on my part. But I will try to find information on screening programmes that were curtailed to a lesser extent in Sweden than Ireland.

9 is based on ICU numbers at peak which were far in excess of Ireland yet deaths were lower.




https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0511/1137763-what-can-we-learn-from-swedens-covid-19-icu-figures/

This suggests that Sweden were dealing with higher levels of infection and therefore immunity while keeping deaths down. Their relatively low levels of testing hid fairly high levels of infection.

5. 8.6% for Sweden vs 12.1% Eurozone average.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/sweden-coronavirus-record-gdp-fall-still-outperformed-some-in-europe.html

Thanks, my only reservation is that infection = immunity is an assumption that has yet to be fully proved I think. Next couple of months should make that clear

Bit cynical

gl0Rob wrote: »

Thanks, my only reservation is that infection = immunity is an assumption that has yet to be fully proved I think. Next couple of months should make that clear

It is a tricky one because you only know you have, say, one year's immunity after one year and so on. Same problem with immunity from a vaccine of course. We won't know how long the vaccine confers immunity until that length of time passes.

But, assuming at least some immunity - and I think the scientific consensus is that there is some - then it is reasonable to infer that those countries with more infections probably have more immunity than countries that successfully avoided infections. The full extent of it, as you say, will take time.

Hego Damask

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Swedens reporting is a complete sham. Why do people think a virus would act one way in one country and another way in another country??

It spreads between people in close contact, it kills a portion of those infected. That's it. Doesn't matter if you're black, brown Swedish or Irish, that's what the virus does.

Similar to the States, the only metric to watch in countries is excess mortality. That's the true death toll of this pandemic.

Politics and general reporting inadequacies can and will impact the "official stats".

Can't stand the fact that Sweden have gotten it right.

biko

If "gotten it right" means killed thousands of their old folks, then yes.