Sweden avoiding lockdown

biko

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

biko

Deaths per million
United Kingdom 700.48
Spain 610.03
Italy 582.56
Sweden 565.93
USA 497.12
Brazil 482.4
Mexico 414.44
Ireland 365.1
Netherlands 357.32

FintanMcluskey

bb1234567 wrote: »

Yes it's interesting that that is the figure because Bergamo was also around 56% antibody response.

And with infections now reducing in cities like Mumbai it really seems like the often cited 60% figure may be when herd immunity occurs.

Although, based on deaths in Mumbai it appears the IFR is a little bit higher than that 0.02% .

This article states that in Mumbai, a city with a population of 12.5 million, it has experienced 6,200 deaths. Half of it's population live in slums - where 57% of people are infected. While the other half outside the slums, only 16% infection rate.

This would mean about 4.5 million infections in the city overall .
With 6200 deaths that is an IFR of approximately 0.14%.


Some of the information I used to come to that figure is in the article below. Feel free to point out errors, maths are not my strong suit
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53576653

Apologies if I have misinterpreted this but are the figures suggesting that in a densely populated developing country the IFR is 0.14%?

gl0Rob

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is a tricky one because you only know you have, say, one year's immunity after one year and so on. Same problem with immunity from a vaccine of course. We won't know how long the vaccine confers immunity until that length of time passes.

But, assuming at least some immunity - and I think the scientific consensus is that there is some - then it is reasonable to infer that those countries with more infections probably have more immunity than countries that successfully avoided infections. The full extent of it, as you say, will take time.

Agree with the point of there being some kind on immunity alright. It also needs to be weighted against any long term effects of the virus which are not well understood at this point. A potential risk that needs to be considered

Hego Damask

biko wrote: »

Deaths per million
United Kingdom 700.48
Spain 610.03
Italy 582.56
Sweden 565.93
USA 497.12
Brazil 482.4
Mexico 414.44
Ireland 365.1
Netherlands 357.32

I notice Sweden below Italy and Spain there, Spain that had the most draconian lockdowns and are forcing the population to wear masks out on the streets, the SS thug police out just looking for people to fine - easy money.


I suppose it's working well in Spain , cases are falling .... oh ... **** no....

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

Deaths per million
United Kingdom 700.48
Spain 610.03
Italy 582.56
Sweden 565.93
USA 497.12
Brazil 482.4
Mexico 414.44
Ireland 365.1
Netherlands 357.32

Why let facts get in the way of your bogus table - such as omitting Belgium, Peru and Iran (official figures understated by 300%.

Here's a table from John Hopkins

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

And if there was a table that accounted for deaths per million Over 65s they'd be much lower again and about the same as Ireland.

Hego Damask

Hego Damask wrote: »

I notice Sweden below Italy and Spain there, Spain that had the most draconian lockdowns and are forcing the population to wear masks out on the streets, the SS thug police out just looking for people to fine - easy money.


I suppose it's working well in Spain , cases are falling .... oh ... **** no....

Spain and Italy locked down too late when spread was already out of control. Spain reopened and started actively encouraging tourists to return, with loads going from Germany and the UK.

I am sure the Spanish government enjoyed the easy money from a few fines rather than the billions in list taxation associated with the destroyed tourist season. Do ye think governments enjoy destroying large parts of their revenue? Just doing for the craic?

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Why let facts get in the way of your bogus table - such as omitting Belgium, Peru and Iran (official figures understated by 300%).

And if there was a table that accounted for deaths per million Over 65s they'd be much lower again and about the same as Ireland.

Norway, Finland, Denmark

Spiderman0081

I seen someone wearing a mask today in Stockholm

tobefrank321

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Norway, Finland, Denmark

Its all there in the John Hopkins table. No selective editing required.

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Its all there in the John Hopkins table. No selective editing required.

Context is required though. And the context here is that Sweden had a major issue despite having all the same advantages as Norway in either a. Not being an impacted earl(Spain, Italy, Iran), not having a nutcases in charge(us, Russia, Brazil, uk), or significantly over counted following care home issues( Ireland, Belgium). Sweden should be measured against its neighbours, who started with the same profile as Sweden, and stopped way short

tobefrank321

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Context is required though. And the context here is that Sweden had a major issue despite having all the same advantages as Norway in either a. Not being an impacted earl(Spain, Italy, Iran), not having a nutcases in charge(us, Russia, Brazil, uk), or significantly over counted following care home issues( Ireland, Belgium). Sweden should be measured against its neighbours, who started with the same profile as Sweden, and stopped way short

Apart from geographical proximity its hard to compare Sweden with Norway.

The reason its easier and probably more apppropriate to compare Sweden with Ireland is both are open economies that depend largely on trade and dealings with the outside world. Sweden actually makes stuff and exports it. Norways wealth is largely down to oil. Norway is on the periphery of Scandanavia, Sweden smack bang in the middle with a link to Denmark and mainland Europe.

Norway has billions in reserves and can sit out any lockdown indefinitely. Sweden needs to keep its economy going to pay for day to day services.

Swedes like Irish people like to go skiing in the Alps in the winter and spring.

By the time the Swedes realised they had a problem they likely had many many more cases than the other Scandanavian countries, mostly undiscovered. It had spread too far and fast for a lockdown to achieve much. At that stage they had no option but to continue on the route they selected.

But they appear to have achieved a sustainable balance compared to other countries and deaths and cases are now stablised.

You can look at other countries to see unsustainable approaches. Australia is now seeing a rise in deaths and yesterday was their highest death total so far. Lockdown flattens the curve but flattening the curve often means spreading deaths over a longer period especially if you emerge from lockdown.

I also think that proper cocooning of the vulnerable, PPE, more testing, hospital improvements and a few other measures achieves more in reducing deaths than lockdowns, and both Ireland and Sweden have made huge progress on this.

Miccoli

bb1234567 wrote: »

Do you've any evidence to support that point? I have not seen any proof that there has as yet been any increase in deaths related to lockdown here, and if there were, that they were greater than Sweden's. Sweden is experiencing increase levels of excess deaths beyond what has been confirmed as those caused by COVID, Ireland is experiencing fewer excess deaths than the number of confirmed COVID deaths. So it would seem that the opposite is true at surface level.

I posted this in a different thread as it is not directly linked to Sweden. However this study by Loughborough University concludes that lockdown caused more deaths than it saved

https://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/news/2020/july/new-approach-to-recording-covid-deaths/

bb1234567

Miccoli wrote: »

I posted this in a different thread as it is not directly linked to Sweden. However this study by Loughborough University concludes that lockdown caused more deaths than it saved

https://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/news/2020/july/new-approach-to-recording-covid-deaths/

Thank you for the link and that is interesting although it does only focus on the UK obviously and bitcynical's point referred to Sweden having reduced deaths caused by lockdown compared to Ireland.

I'm not just being pedantic for the sake of it, it's just important to note because lockdown absolutely did not cause increased deaths in all places implemented. Many countries such as several in Northern Europe, experienced reduced excess deaths despite introducing lockdowns. Obviously many other countries with lockdowns saw huge rises in excess deaths but often these countries lockded down because of simultaneous widespread outbreaks. As far as I'm aware there are no examples of countries without large COVID outbreaks but large scale lockdowns that experienced rises in short term excess deaths because of the lockdowns.

It is absolutely really important to assess each country individually, and I have no doubt that lockdowns did cause deaths in some or many regions of the world, but we can't say it did or did not in Ireland and Sweden just because it did in the UK.

Onesea

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Apart from geographical proximity its hard to compare Sweden with Norway.

The reason its easier and probably more apppropriate to compare Sweden with Ireland is both are open economies that depend largely on trade and dealings with the outside world. Sweden actually makes stuff and exports it. Norways wealth is largely down to oil. Norway is on the periphery of Scandanavia, Sweden smack bang in the middle with a link to Denmark and mainland Europe.

Norway has billions in reserves and can sit out any lockdown indefinitely. Sweden needs to keep its economy going to pay for day to day services.

Swedes like Irish people like to go skiing in the Alps in the winter and spring.

By the time the Swedes realised they had a problem they likely had many many more cases than the other Scandanavian countries, mostly undiscovered. It had spread too far and fast for a lockdown to achieve much. At that stage they had no option but to continue on the route they selected.

But they appear to have achieved a sustainable balance compared to other countries and deaths and cases are now stablised.

You can look at other countries to see unsustainable approaches. Australia is now seeing a rise in deaths and yesterday was their highest death total so far. Lockdown flattens the curve but flattening the curve often means spreading deaths over a longer period especially if you emerge from lockdown.

I also think that proper cocooning of the vulnerable, PPE, more testing, hospital improvements and a few other measures achieves more in reducing deaths than lockdowns, and both Ireland and Sweden have made huge progress on this.

LIFE here in Norway is just as effected as mainland Europe. We are very financially conservative, all my work mates are still waiting for the dole money since March afte loosing our jobs.

The media here don't brainwash the populace with fear, Ireland seems alot different in that regard.

Little international trade, oil is down, unemployment doubled overnight and will get worse.

So Norway ain't doing so rosey.

Fast food consumption is up 30 percent on last year, one area of growth

biko

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

I seen someone wearing a mask today in Stockholm

Even now Tegnell won't endorse mask wearing but people are wearing them anyway.


And when the Swedish Prime Minister went to Brussels he had to wear one contrary to his expert's opinion.

Ce he sin

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Why let facts get in the way of your bogus table - such as omitting Belgium, Peru and Iran (official figures understated by 300%.

Here's a table from John Hopkins

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

And if there was a table that accounted for deaths per million Over 65s they'd be much lower again and about the same as Ireland.

That may well be a bogus table because it's assuming that the reported figures are correct. As has been frequently stated here Sweden's excess over expected deaths for the first half of this year is substantially higher than that attributed to Covid 19. Assuming (yes, it's an assumption) that all of the excess is actually caused by the virus makes Sweden's position on that table rather different.

seamus

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Apart from geographical proximity its hard to compare Sweden with Norway.

This is a virus. Geographical proximity to hotspots is one of the primary factors influencing viral spread. Economic structures and national financial stockpiles are tertiary factors.

You cannot say "if you ignore geographical proximity, Sweden is nothing like Norway". It's like saying, "Apart from the fact that my client was standing beside the victim's body, it's hard to say he had anything to do with his death".

tobefrank321

Ce he sin wrote: »

That may well be a bogus table because it's assuming that the reported figures are correct. As has been frequently stated here Sweden's excess over expected deaths for the first half of this year is substantially higher than that attributed to Covid 19. Assuming (yes, it's an assumption) that all of the excess is actually caused by the virus makes Sweden's position on that table rather different.

The excess over covid deaths was reckoned by some on here to be about 2000.

However, that depends on taking a 10 year average of deaths. If you look at the previous 10 years, they can have anything from 88k up to 92k a year in deaths. If there was no covid this year, deaths could have been 92k or 88k. So taking the average isn't an exact science, its a rough guess.

Also its been speculated the Swedish deaths are disproportionally frontloaded in the earlier months of the year, perhaps due to flu.

There's also many reasons why people die. Covid deaths in Sweden will probably account for 10% of total deaths by year end (assuming they keep it to about 9k deaths). So there are many other categories of deaths which may have risen such as heart attacks among people who are cocooning.

tobefrank321

seamus wrote: »

This is a virus. Geographical proximity to hotspots is one of the primary factors influencing viral spread. Economic structures and national financial stockpiles are tertiary factors.

You cannot say "if you ignore geographical proximity, Sweden is nothing like Norway". It's like saying, "Apart from the fact that my client was standing beside the victim's body, it's hard to say he had anything to do with his death".

ok so.

Do Spain and Portugal have the same death rate?

or Ireland and UK?

Bit cynical

seamus wrote: »

This is a virus. Geographical proximity to hotspots is one of the primary factors influencing viral spread. Economic structures and national financial stockpiles are tertiary factors.

You cannot say "if you ignore geographical proximity, Sweden is nothing like Norway". It's like saying, "Apart from the fact that my client was standing beside the victim's body, it's hard to say he had anything to do with his death".

True. Then again, things like trade links can be very important such as the link between China and Northern Italy. I believe Spain had similar links. I would also look at holiday patterns. I read that Sweden tends to have more skiing holidays in the Alps including Northern Italy than Norway.

Bit cynical

biko wrote: »

And when the Swedish Prime Minister went to Brussels he had to wear one contrary to his expert's opinion.

In fairness, he would stand out quite a bit if everyone else around him is wearing one. Plus there's a higher rate of daily cases in Belgium at he moment though I doubt if that is the main reason.

Diarmuid

biko wrote: »

And when the Swedish Prime Minister went to Brussels he had to wear one contrary to his expert's opinion.

Yes because they are the rules in Belgium. One generally follows the rules in the country you are visiting, not apply the rules from your home country.

biko

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Why let facts get in the way of your bogus table - such as omitting Belgium, Peru and Iran (official figures understated by 300%.

Ce he sin wrote: »

That may well be a bogus table

The "bogus" table https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

I don't have to declare every country in my post, only what I deem the relevant ones.

Belgium have been compared to Sweden many times in this thread. You already knew that I think.

Btw, there exist more countries below Ireland, but in my image but I have chosen to omit them, just so you know...

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

The "bogus" table https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

I don't have to declare every country in my post, only what I deem the relevant ones.

Belgium have been compared to Sweden many times in this thread. You already knew that I think.

Btw, there exist more countries below Ireland, but in my image but I have chosen to omit them, just so you know...

You left Belgium off your original table, a country doing far worse than Sweden despite a similar population size.

Its hard to take anyone seriously who removes countries from tables in order to make one country look worse than they are.

tobefrank321

Looking at the Statista table, the US which has 30 times Sweden's population has almost 300 times its daily deaths.

They will jump above Sweden within the next two weeks as will Mexico and Chile. Iran has already been caught undereporting deaths by 300% so they should be on that table near the top also.

Sweden will drop out of the top ten within the next month.

niallo27

biko wrote: »

The "bogus" table https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

I don't have to declare every country in my post, only what I deem the relevant ones.

Belgium have been compared to Sweden many times in this thread. You already knew that I think.

Btw, there exist more countries below Ireland, but in my image but I have chosen to omit them, just so you know...

Just stop, your embarrassing yourself at this stage.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The excess over covid deaths was reckoned by some on here to be about 2000.

However, that depends on taking a 10 year average of deaths. If you look at the previous 10 years, they can have anything from 88k up to 92k a year in deaths. If there was no covid this year, deaths could have been 92k or 88k. So taking the average isn't an exact science, its a rough guess.

Also its been speculated the Swedish deaths are disproportionally frontloaded in the earlier months of the year, perhaps due to flu.

There's also many reasons why people die. Covid deaths in Sweden will probably account for 10% of total deaths by year end (assuming they keep it to about 9k deaths). So there are many other categories of deaths which may have risen such as heart attacks among people who are cocooning.

Euromomo graph of Swedish deaths this year show them below the baseline for every week up until week 12(end of March), so nothing to indicate front loading in the earlier months.
Swedish deaths are now 60,000 at the end of July
.Even going on that high figure of 92.000, with 5 months left until year end and their usual high deaths during Winter, their numbers look suspect imo.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Hmmm, you may have missed it but apparently Sweden has X3 over 65 population as Ireland so as someone pointed out, when that's taken into account there's little difference in the recorded data.

I'm just hoping that the schools reopen or I might have to move to Sweden for my own sanity!

Per head of population Sweden has 2,200 more deaths than Ireland.

Deaths per head of population of those over 65 may be around the same as Ireland, but compared to the other Scandinavian countries there is a marked difference.

Sweden with 20% over 65. Deaths 260 per 100,000 For the three others if all deaths were over 65.
Finland with 22% over 65. Deaths 27 per 100,000
Denmark with 20% over 65. Deaths 54 per 100,000
Norway with 17% over 65. Deaths 28 per 100,000.


Whatever about your sanity, if you are going to move to Scandinavia and you are over 65, any of the other three would be a safer choice.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Euromomo graph of Swedish deaths this year show them below the baseline for every week up until week 12(end of March), so nothing to indicate front loading in the earlier months.
Swedish deaths are now 60,000 at the end of July
.Even going on that high figure of 92.000, with 5 months left until year end and their usual high deaths during Winter, their numbers look suspect imo.

92/12 x 7 = 53,667

60,000 - 53,667 = 6,333 - about 600 more than reported covid numbers - not a massive difference and possibly accounted for by other deaths.

88/12 x 7 = 51,333

Finally, 90/12 x 7 = 52.5 - 7,500 of an excess.

It could be any of these numbers, but if we agree to the 90k a year number, then its about 1900 of an excess over covid. We simply do not know the cause of these deaths. It may be the Swedes count covid deaths differently to Ireland for example - someone who was terminally ill with something else also happened to have covid or suspected covid at time of death, but the other illness killed them.