Sweden avoiding lockdown

PokeHerKing

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Looking at the Statista table, the US which has 30 times Sweden's population has almost 300 times its daily deaths.

They will jump above Sweden within the next two weeks as will Mexico and Chile. Iran has already been caught undereporting deaths by 300% so they should be on that table near the top also.

Sweden will drop out of the top ten within the next month.

Yes those sneaky Iranians under reporting.. Look at the drop-off in the Swedish cases/deaths from the end of June. It's beyond suspect.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Per head of population Sweden has 2,200 more deaths than Ireland.

Deaths per head of population of those over 65 may be around the same as Ireland, but compared to the other Scandinavian countries there is a marked difference.

Sweden with 20% over 65. Deaths 260 per 100,000 For the three others if all deaths were over 65.
Finland with 22% over 65. Deaths 27 per 100,000
Denmark with 20% over 65. Deaths 54 per 100,000
Norway with 17% over 65. Deaths 28 per 100,000.


Whatever about your sanity, if you are going to move to Scandinavia and you are over 65, any of the other three would be a safer choice.

One of these days when I have time I will go through what I believe are the main differences between Norway and Sweden. In summary all they share is a region, apart from that they appear to be like chalk and cheese. Especially when it comes to the amount of visitors there, the population density of Oslo v Stockholm, their economies (58% of Norways exports is oil) the massive difference in ethnic minorities, 295k from non western backgrounds in Norway, close to 800k in Sweden - we know the importance of BAME in covid spread and several other difference such as many more old people in Sweden and the habit of Swedes to go skiing in southern Europe in the winter. All these factors add up.

Norway and Sweden are not the homogenious twins some would have us believe, no more than the UK and Ireland are - and we know that while the virus doesn't respect borders it certainly takes accounts of demographics, population density, numbers of air travellers coming in and so on.

In short, two different countries, completely different.

PokeHerKing

tobefrank321 wrote: »

92/12 x 7 = 53,667

60,000 - 53,667 = 6,333 - about 600 more than reported covid numbers - not a massive difference and possibly accounted for by other deaths.

88/12 x 7 = 51,333

Finally, 90/12 x 7 = 52.5 - 7,500 of an excess.

It could be any of these numbers, but if we agree to the 90k a year number, then its about 1900 of an excess over covid. We simply do not know the cause of these deaths. It may be the Swedes count covid deaths differently to Ireland for example - someone who was terminally ill with something else also happened to have covid or suspected covid at time of death, but the other illness killed them.

Excess deaths are excess deaths. The Swedish governments categorization of them matters not a jot.

tobefrank321

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Excess deaths are excess deaths. The Swedish governments categorization of them matters not a jot.

Covid deaths make up about 10% of all deaths in Sweden.

People die from other things, many other things, some of them preventable in normal circumstances.

Longer term there will be a lot of excess deaths related to unscreened or undiagnosed cancers and other conditions.

tobefrank321

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Yes those sneaky Iranians under reporting.. Look at the drop-off in the Swedish cases/deaths from the end of June. It's beyond suspect.

Drop off in cases, deaths, hospitalisations and ICU admissions.

You might be able to fiddle the numbers of one category but to do all four at the same time demands a conspiracy that most conspiracy theorists would laugh at.

PokeHerKing

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Covid deaths make up about 10% of all deaths in Sweden.

People die from other things, many other things, some of them preventable in normal circumstances.

Longer term there will be a lot of excess deaths related to unscreened or undiagnosed cancers and other conditions.

But the Swedes didn't shut down. So none of that will apply to their excess deaths. Only lockdown countries will have excess suicides, undiagnosed cancers and mask related fatalities.

i_surge

tobefrank321 wrote: »

One of these days when I have time I will go through what I believe are the main differences between Norway and Sweden. In summary all they share is a region, apart from that they appear to be like chalk and cheese. Especially when it comes to the amount of visitors there, the population density of Oslo v Stockholm, their economies (58% of Norways exports is oil) the massive difference in ethnic minorities, 295k from non western backgrounds in Norway, close to 800k in Sweden - we know the importance of BAME in covid spread and several other difference such as many more old people in Sweden and the habit of Swedes to go skiing in southern Europe in the winter. All these factors add up.

Norway and Sweden are not the homogenious twins some would have us believe, no more than the UK and Ireland are - and we know that while the virus doesn't respect borders it certainly takes accounts of demographics, population density, numbers of air travellers coming in and so on.

In short, two different countries, completely different.

Importance of BAME in covid spread?

More susceptible, not more likely to spread. A strange notion outside of socioeconomic factors.

i_surge

PokeHerKing wrote: »

But the Swedes didn't shut down. So none of that will apply to their excess deaths. Only lockdown countries will have excess suicides, undiagnosed cancers and mask related fatalities.

What are mask related fatalities?

tobefrank321

PokeHerKing wrote: »

But the Swedes didn't shut down. So none of that will apply to their excess deaths. Only lockdown countries will have excess suicides, undiagnosed cancers and mask related fatalities.

The Swedes suspended cancer screening. They also advise against non essential visits to the elderly and cocooning of vulnerable categories, as well as working from home.
A lot of what the Swedes do is similar to other countries, but they do differ in some areas such as leaving schools, pubs, hotels and most if not all workplaces open, something which hopefully for their sake makes a long term difference economically.

tobefrank321

i_surge wrote: »

Importance of BAME in covid spread?

More susceptible, not more likely to spread. A strange notion outside of socioeconomic factors.

There's a debate whether they are more susceptible or whether they are more susceptible because or working and accommodation arrangements - ie more likely to live in multigenerational households or as frontline workers.

mcsean2163

Ce he sin wrote: »

That may well be a bogus table because it's assuming that the reported figures are correct. As has been frequently stated here Sweden's excess over expected deaths for the first half of this year is substantially higher than that attributed to Covid 19. Assuming (yes, it's an assumption) that all of the excess is actually caused by the virus makes Sweden's position on that table rather different.

This is quite annoying. No evidence of higher excess deaths over and above the COVID-19 stated by Sweden has been shown on this thread
People have assumed a constant rate of death per month when in fact deaths in Europe typically peak at the end of January. Unless you have evidence, please stop spreading unsubstantiated erroneous conclusions.:(

i_surge

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There's a debate whether they are more susceptible or whether they are more susceptible because or working and accommodation arrangements - ie more likely to live in multigenerational households or as frontline workers.

I think you are using a very wide brush to draw broad strokes on that one.

PokeHerKing

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The Swedes suspended cancer screening. They also advise against non essential visits to the elderly and cocooning of vulnerable categories, as well as working from home.
A lot of what the Swedes do is similar to other countries, but they do differ in some areas such as leaving schools, pubs, hotels and most if not all workplaces open, something which hopefully for their sake makes a long term difference economically.

So what you're saying is, if they have excess deaths outside of their official covid19 recorded deaths it will be because of all of the things they did similar to lockdown countries.

But nothing to do with the things they did differently?

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

Euromomo graph of Swedish deaths this year show them below the baseline for every week up until week 12(end of March), so nothing to indicate front loading in the earlier months.
Swedish deaths are now 60,000 at the end of July
.Even going on that high figure of 92.000, with 5 months left until year end and their usual high deaths during Winter, their numbers look suspect imo.

I'm beginning to despair. This must be how teachers feel in a school.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Baseline deaths are at a maximum at end January in Europe. This means there are more deaths in Europe in the first half of the year than the latter half.

Spiderman0081

biko wrote: »

Even now Tegnell won't endorse mask wearing but people are wearing them anyway.


And when the Swedish Prime Minister went to Brussels he had to wear one contrary to his expert's opinion.

I think you missed the joke 🀗
Do you live in Sweden. I was at the lake yesterday with my kids. Went to McDonald’s and various other activities. I seen one person with a mask.
And get this. I was at the skatepark with my kids today. My oldest son fell on his arm and is in a lot of pain. We are at the emergency room now waiting to get X-ray. We were stopped at the entrance and questioned about any symptoms we have or have had lately. The nurse told my children to just sit down as quite as they can and try not to move about unnecessarily. My girlfriend came to the emergency room just now from work and we were informed that only one parent is allowed stay so I am in the car waiting. Hopefully my son will be ok but I’m telling this story just to say that nobody, nurses, doctors or patients in the waiting room are wearing masks. Myself included.

mcsean2163

Interesting article.

https://unherd.com/2020/08/why-sweden-is-different-when-it-comes-to-covid/

Would be good to hear what spiderman thinks of it. FWIW, I'm on a 3 hour masked train journey at the moment. I'll be wearing the mask for 6 hours (return journey). Not the worst thing in the world tbh.

tobefrank321

Looking at the differences between Norway and Sweden, Norway have 17% of the population over 65, Sweden 20%.

This means there are close to 20% more over 65s in Sweden.

The difference is even more significant when you come to people from a BAME background. Norway has about 300k from a non western background, Sweden has about 800k from a non western background, another substantial difference.

BAME communities have been found to be disproportionally represented in covid fatality figures.

https://www.ft.com/content/5fd6ab18-be4a-48de-b887-8478a391dd72

People from a Bame background make up about 13 per cent of the UK population but account for a third of virus patients admitted to hospital critical care units. Black Americans represent around 14 per cent of the US population but 30 per cent of those who have contracted the virus.Inquiries into why racial minorities are so heavily over-represented among those suffering from Covid-19 are under way, although few expect simple answers. Health experts and academics are now searching for clues among the multiple medical, socio-economic, behavioural, cultural, environmental and biological factors that could be driving the association between Covid-19 and ethnicity.“When we started to raise the alarm about four weeks ago some people thought it was scaremongering,” said Kamlesh Khunti, professor of primary care diabetes and vascular medicine at Leicester University in the UK. “Now we see that more than 70 per cent of healthcare professionals who have died in the UK have been from Bame backgrounds.”Similar patterns showing disproportionate numbers of Bame virus victims have emerged in the US and other European countries with large minority populations, although Prof Khunti said none had as strong evidence as the UK about overall ethnic patterns of Covid-19. France, another country with a large Bame proportion, prohibits the gathering of statistics based on ethnicity.“We in the UK are in a position to alert the world to what is happening,” said Prof Khunti.In the US, data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is incomplete. But it shows that white people accounted for 51 per cent of Covid-19 cases whose race was specified, compared with 74 per cent of the US population.

You also have the other factors I mentioned, the Swedes habit of going skiing in Southern Europe and the population densities of major cities like Stockholm which is almost 50% higher than Oslo.

So even if Sweden locked down at the same time as Norway there is no guarantee they would have fared as well as Norway for reasons mentioned - different demographics mainly.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I'm beginning to despair. This must be how teachers feel in a school.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Baseline deaths are at a maximum at end January in Europe. This means there are more deaths in Europe in the first half of the year than the latter half.

You would make a very poor teacher.
Baseline deaths for Sweden are minus for every week up until the end of April.
What does that tell you teacher ?

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

You would make a very poor teacher.
Baseline deaths for Sweden are minus for every week up until the end of April.
What does that tell you teacher ?

Looking at those graphs, the baselines for Sweden do appear to be low but only by a very low amount - likely only a couple hundred people at most.

Notice the massive spike for Sweden when they were seeing 500 deaths a week at their peak! Contrast that with the miniscule dips in the graphs for January and February.

tobefrank321

It appears I made a mistake for population densities.

The population density for Stockholm is 4800 per sq k, and its 1645 for Oslo - So Stockholm's density is 3 times that of Oslo.

nw1dqsv7amx026

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I'm beginning to despair. This must be how teachers feel in a school.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Baseline deaths are at a maximum at end January in Europe. This means there are more deaths in Europe in the first half of the year than the latter half.

I'm getting deja vu here. I suggested the same about two weeks ago.

What I would love is the actual raw data on deaths from Sweden by week or by month. I couldn't find this. I didn't see where euromomo pulls it data from, presumably the CSO equivalent in each country?

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

You would make a very poor teacher.
Baseline deaths for Sweden are minus for every week up until the end of April.
What does that tell you teacher ?

Charlie,where in the Euromomo site do you get excess deaths by country?
I only see it done by z normalisation!

That other site you referenced, Statista does not give detailed data.

i_surge

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I'm getting deja vu here. I suggested the same about two weeks ago.

What I would love is the actual raw data on deaths from Sweden by week or by month. I couldn't find this. I didn't see where euromomo pulls it data from, presumably the CSO equivalent in each country?

Why are you all debating the tiny details of the "real" Swedish numbers when evidence from American states where lockdown was disbanded simply blow the basis for the "Swedish Model" out of the water?

Disconfirming evidence is king.

the incredible pudding

i_surge wrote: »

Why are you all debating the tiny details of the "real" Swedish numbers when evidence from American states where lockdown was disbanded simply blow the basis for the "Swedish Model" out of the water?

Disconfirming evidence is king.

The Swedish model isn't 'disbanding lockdown' - it was based on trying to make changes to how people live in a way that would be attainable and manageable for what was expected to be a very long time. It is certainly not the same thing as the States where you have a hugely politicised and polarised divide.

People here take the 'guidelines' and recommendations of those employed in governmental bodies seriously, which is why nobody here in Stockholm bar Asian people, some elderly and some foreigners wear a mask ( for what it's worth - I really wish it was recommended. ).

There were many, many failures in how how this was implemented. However, many things were certainly gotten right. It's neither been a success nor the catastrophic failure some here seem to be trying to paint it as. It's not a black and white situation no matter how extreme people's views here are to vehemently attack the 'other' side regardless of the presence or (more importantly) absence of accurate data, statistics and facts. Time will provide more clarity but probably still only so much tbh.

nw1dqsv7amx026

i_surge wrote: »

Why are you all debating the tiny details of the "real" Swedish numbers when evidence from American states where lockdown was disbanded simply blow the basis for the "Swedish Model" out of the water?

Disconfirming evidence is king.

You don't understand the difference between the Swedish approach and the US approach? Not sure that there is such a thing as a US approach.

Not surprising since you didn't understand the political difficulties in applying the New Zealand approach to two states on the same island (Ireland).

i_surge

the incredible pudding wrote: »

The Swedish model isn't 'disbanding lockdown' - it was based on trying to make changes to how people live in a way that would be attainable and manageable for what was expected to be a very long time. It is certainly not the same thing as the States where you have a hugely politicised and polarised divide.

People here take the 'guidelines' and recommendations of those employed in governmental bodies seriously, which is why nobody here in Stockholm bar Asian people, some elderly and some foreigners wear a mask ( for what it's worth - I really wish it was recommended. ).

There were many, many failures in how how this was implemented. However, many things were certainly gotten right. It's neither been a success nor the catastrophic failure some here seem to be trying to paint it as. It's not a black and white situation no matter how extreme people's views here are to vehemently attack the 'other' side regardless of the presence or (more importantly) absence of accurate data, statistics and facts. Time will provide more clarity but probably still only so much tbh.

I agree but there have been massive failures elsewhere. People love to use Sweden as an argument against lockdowns (usually conspiracy theorists) when that doesn't hold to scrutiny.

i_surge

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

You don't understand the difference between the Swedish approach and the US approach? Not sure that there is such a thing as a US approach.

Not surprising since you didn't understand the political difficulties in applying the New Zealand approach to two states on the same island (Ireland).

I understand them but I still see them as excuses.

nw1dqsv7amx026

i_surge wrote: »

I agree but there have been massive failures elsewhere. People love to use Sweden as an argument against lockdowns

You're obviously planning to flip flop around this thread like the other threads which you have spoiled.

(usually conspiracy theorists) when that doesn't hold to scrutiny.

What?

i_surge

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

You're obviously planning to flip flop around this thread like the other threads which you have spoiled.



What?

It is already spoiled by people talking about imaginary numbers they will never know for sure. Enjoy

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Looking at those graphs, the baselines for Sweden do appear to be low but only by a very low amount - likely only a couple hundred people at most.

Notice the massive spike for Sweden when they were seeing 500 deaths a week at their peak! Contrast that with the miniscule dips in the graphs for January and February.

The fact that the baseline for Sweden is low until the end of March does not explain the excess deaths.
It means that there were more excess deaths between the end of March and now as up until March deaths were lower.