Sweden avoiding lockdown

alwald

niallo27 wrote: »

First mention in Google.

By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.

https://www.history.com/.amp/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic#section_13

That's a start but keep digging to learn more.

alwald

alwald wrote: »

That's a start but keep digging to learn more.

How far will he have to dig before he gets to "Spanish flu was eliminated"?

alwald

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How far will he have to dig before he gets to "Spanish flu was eliminated"?

If you mean the H2H transmission was eliminated then not too long.

Gary kk

Hey guys your both kinda playing words now and you have changed stance since this started

ush

I live in Sweden. I think a lot of us are looking at this the wrong way. Its about regions, not countries. There's factors at play that means it burrows into a specific spot. It doesn't just spread out. The analogy I read was its a badger, rather than a swarm of wasps. In Sweden its concentrated, so far, in Stockholm. There'll be an analysis of this later. But the reason why its concentrated in that region could be the privately run old folks homes. State or council run place could be better run in some way. I read that Norwegian old folks homes are more like old style healthcare institutions. So they were built to contain infections. Which explains why the virus hasn't hit their old folks homes the same way as Stockholm's.

That's my two crowns.

alwald

alwald wrote: »

This is better than your previous post.
So you agree that there are studies showing that social distancing was a contributor, just like isolation, to curb/eliminate the H2H transmission.

As per elimination yes the H2H transmission was eliminated but the H1N1 was found 90 years later in pigs and infected humans again.

Studies primarily based on the us data. Social distancing helped mitigate the impact on some us cities, however elimination is only possible through immunity. Either natural or vaccine. When they talk about social distancing in 1918 as well, it’s nothing like what we are doing as the vast majority of city dwellers did not have the luxury of the food security we now have. If what is being done now was done 100 years ago there would have been mass famine

thebaz

ush wrote: »

There'll be an analysis of this later.

That is the key, right now no one knows 100% which is the correct approach.
By end of month we will get an idea, whether the Swedish approach was totally irrepsonsible or the brave one, saving secondary serious issues such as economic misery/ mental breakdowns and other serious illness issues.
No one here knows for sure right now, despite the many experts here pretending they do.

MadYaker

alwald wrote: »

If you mean the H2H transmission was eliminated then not too long.

But you said the spanish flu was eliminated on the previous page? Thats not true.

alwald

Deleted User wrote: »

Studies primarily based on the us data. Social distancing helped mitigate the impact on some us cities, however elimination is only possible through immunity. Either natural or vaccine. When they talk about social distancing in 1918 as well, it’s nothing like what we are doing as the vast majority of city dwellers did not have the luxury of the food security we now have. If what is being done now was done 100 years ago there would have been mass famine

The most important part is in bold, the rest is your wrong interpretation of what I said as I never compared social distancing between now and the past.
So without going around in circles, you say that elimination is only possible through immunity, so how come Wuhan, through their strict lockdown, have literally eliminated the virus without herd immunity?? Same applies to Taiwan even if their number of cases are lower.

alwald

alwald wrote: »

The most important part is in bold, the rest is your wrong interpretation of what I said as I never compared social distancing between now and the past.
So without going around in circles, you say that elimination is only possible through immunity, so how come Wuhan, through their strict lockdown, have literally eliminated the virus without herd immunity?? Same applies to Taiwan even if their number of cases are lower.

Suppression, not elimination. And to keep it low various degrees of suppression will be needed until immunity reaches the required level. Plus we don’t know how bad it really got in Wuhan.

MadYaker

Someone needs to look up the definitions of suppression and elimination in relation to infectious diseases.

alwald

Deleted User wrote: »

Suppression, not elimination. And to keep it low various degrees of suppression will be needed until immunity reaches the required level. Plus we don’t know how bad it really got in Wuhan.

Still avoiding the herd immunity justification, suppression which is leading to elimination without your herd immunity so how?

Turtwig

alwald wrote: »

Still avoiding the herd immunity justification, suppression which is leading to elimination without your herd immunity so how?

I mean this in the nicest possible way. None of your posts make any sense to the point I'm not even sure what others are disagreeing with you over.

alwald

Turtwig wrote: »

I mean this in the nicest possible way. None of your posts make any sense to the point I'm not even sure what others are disagreeing with you over.

I mean this nicely too. If your brain can't understand enough then ask nicely and I will explain further...we can do it baby steps.

Gary kk

Ok can you please put in bullet point what you are trying to get across because i am lost to

Gary kk

Yeah baby steps that would be good that way there will be no back tracking bh either side

coppergrass

I'm also living in Sweden a couple of years now in a town a similar size to Galway. There seems to be a sense of collective social responsibility here that isn't nearly as present in Ireland. It's kind of hard to articulate and I still don't fully grasp it.

I suspect it plays at least some part in avoiding a lockdown. Most social distancing and travel measures are recommended rather than enforced and while there were some notable exceptions, people around here broadly seem to be sticking to them. The authorities were worried about excessive travel over Easter but cell tower data suggests many trips out of Stockholm were down over 90%. I doubt there'd have been a similar drop in traffic from Dublin without the lockdown.

The approach seems to be that the authorities won't bring in a lockdown as long as government advice is broadly followed and people who need critical care can get it. I guess time will tell how it works out.

thebaz

alwald wrote: »

I mean this nicely too. If your brain can't understand enough then ask nicely and I will explain further...we can do it baby steps.

can you explain what you understand herd immunity to be?

and why always the condescending tone ?

Beasty

alwald wrote: »

I mean this nicely too. If your brain can't understand enough then ask nicely and I will explain further...we can do it baby steps.

Give it a rest

Jurgen Klopp

MadYaker wrote: »

Someone needs to look up the definitions of suppression and elimination in relation to infectious diseases.

Lads need to stop replying to someone that came to a conclusion it's a 21% death rate and keeps calling everyone else stupid

tom1ie

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'll say it one more time.

Spanish flu was NOT "eliminated"

That is an active sentence that assumes that someone or some organisation or humanity as a whole "eliminated" it. THAT DID NOT HAPPEN.

We eliminated smallpox. We did not eliminate Spanish Flu.

Like a lot of viral diseases it goes through the population and then either comes up against herd immunity or mutates into something less dangerous.

Social distancing helped curb some of the potential impact of the disease, it did not eliminate the virus.

Why do you say less dangerous.
Can it not mutate into something more dangerous?
Not that I prefer that it’s just I presume the mutation could and can and has gone either way?

begbysback

tom1ie wrote: »

Why do you say less dangerous.
Can it not mutate into something more dangerous?
Not that I prefer that it’s just I presume the mutation could and can and has gone either way?

Why would a virus mutate into something more dangerous? That means it would kill its host, viruses survive by living with its hosts.

thebaz

tom1ie wrote: »

Why do you say less dangerous.
Can it not mutate into something more dangerous?
Not that I prefer that it’s just I presume the mutation could and can and has gone either way?

From most studies done , so far, C19 does not mutate much , this is good news, as people who become infected , and recover, will most likely then have immunity for a few years.

2u2me

begbysback wrote: »

Why would a virus mutate into something more dangerous? That means it would kill its host, viruses survive by living with its hosts.

Virus mutate randomly. Virus' that have a low mortality rate tend to survive longer yes because they don't kill their hosts as well.

Doesn't mean this virus can't mutate and wipe out a large chunk of the world.

Apparently there are already A,B,C mutations of this virus being studied.

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

I mean this in the nicest possible way. None of your posts make any sense to the point I'm not even sure what others are disagreeing with you over.

I was just thinking that myself. That’s why I’ve given up

WhiteMemento9

Swedish coronavirus deaths top 1,000, fuelling criticism over strategy

Memnoch

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Swedish coronavirus deaths top 1,000, fuelling criticism over strategy

Their testing rate seems to be very poor. The real toll is likely to be much, much higher.

Del Griffith

They are counting deaths in care homes etc, Norway are only counting deaths in hospitals, not like for like

zerosugarbuzz

There seems to be no consistency in counting methods in any country. Count what suits you and present that would seem to be the order of the day. Personally I thing the figures on worldometer are a joke at this point.

suicide_circus

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

There seems to be no consistency in counting methods in any country. Count what suits you and present that would seem to be the order of the day. Personally I thing the figures on worldometer are a joke at this point.

if i get covid 19 tomorrow and fall down the stairs and die the day after, i will have died from covid 19