Sweden avoiding lockdown

PHG

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Interesting article.

https://unherd.com/2020/08/why-sweden-is-different-when-it-comes-to-covid/

Would be good to hear what spiderman thinks of it. FWIW, I'm on a 3 hour masked train journey at the moment. I'll be wearing the mask for 6 hours (return journey). Not the worst thing in the world tbh.

I live in Stockholm and read your attachment. This is the part that got me

In the supermarkets, Swedes are careful to observe social distancing, particularly with older people; at the restaurants and bars there is a queue outside until seats become available (there’s a table-service only rule in place). In the spirit of allemansrätt, people are behaving responsibly but choosing their own path.

Because on most levels it is nonsense. I had to go to ICA (their version of Dunnes) twice over the weekend and people right behind me in the queue even though markers were laid out. This was the same when I went for a coffee. I am not saying it is everyone but it is most.

As Spiderman says, nobody is wearing a mask. I counted 2 people in the last week wearing them. As for the restaurants and bars queuing. Swedes always queue, places make you queue even if it is not busy and when inside it is not spaced out any different than if Covid was not around.

I am highly suspect of the numbers reported too, for previous reasons laid out on this thread by others, but also, people at home don't realise that Swedes take all of July and the first week of August off every year. There wasn't a soul around in Stockholm since the end of June until last weekend. I would assume a backdating of numbers could be on the cards in the coming weeks.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I'm getting deja vu here. I suggested the same about two weeks ago.

What I would love is the actual raw data on deaths from Sweden by week or by month. I couldn't find this. I didn't see where euromomo pulls it data from, presumably the CSO equivalent in each country?

Your getting deja vu!

If you are then you have some inkling as to how I feel.
I`ve explained this to you a number of times.


Euromomo maps and graphs.

Sweden`s graph shows deaths below the baseline up until the end of March. Less death for that period than the norm.


Statista gave the number of deaths in Sweden up until July 17th.
As there were no excess deaths until the end of March, then excess deaths are between then and July 17th.


bb1234567 calculated that this shows that for that period based on the average Swedish deaths over a ten year period, there are 2,000 deaths over and above Covid-19 deaths.
Even then he didn`t make any allowance for less deaths than normal up until the end of March.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Looking at the differences between Norway and Sweden, Norway have 17% of the population over 65, Sweden 20%.

This means there are close to 20% more over 65s in Sweden.

The difference is even more significant when you come to people from a BAME background. Norway has about 300k from a non western background, Sweden has about 800k from a non western background, another substantial difference.

BAME communities have been found to be disproportionally represented in covid fatality figures.

https://www.ft.com/content/5fd6ab18-be4a-48de-b887-8478a391dd72



You also have the other factors I mentioned, the Swedes habit of going skiing in Southern Europe and the population densities of major cities like Stockholm which is almost 50% higher than Oslo.

So even if Sweden locked down at the same time as Norway there is no guarantee they would have fared as well as Norway for reasons mentioned - different demographics mainly.

It would not change the stats that much if you included all of that 800,000 in Sweden`s over 60`s. Deaths would be 196 per 100,000.
Doing the same for Norway`s over 65`s if all Norway`s deaths were from that group, Norway`s deaths would be 20 per 100,000.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

Your getting deja vu!

If you are then you have some inkling as to how I feel.
I`ve explained this to you a number of times.


Euromomo maps and graphs.

Sweden`s graph shows deaths below the baseline up until the end of March. Less death for that period than the norm.


Statista gave the number of deaths in Sweden up until July 17th.
As there were no excess deaths until the end of March, then excess deaths are between then and July 17th.


bb1234567 calculated that this shows that for that period based on the average Swedish deaths over a ten year period, there are 2,000 deaths over and above Covid-19 deaths.
Even then he didn`t make any allowance for less deaths than normal up until the end of March.

Right so first it was statista, then it was euromomo, now its bb1234567.
And every time it had to be dragged out of you. You should have told me to check posts from bb1234567!

Despite all that, I should take as fact your assertion that Sweden under reported their deaths by 2,000.

To be honest, I was most interested, in how your calculated 2,000 deaths from a time series graph of z normalised deaths.

nw1dqsv7amx026

i_surge wrote: »

It is already spoiled by people talking about imaginary numbers they will never know for sure. Enjoy

I think he's talking about you Charlie. You should reply and set him straight.

Bit cynical

PHG wrote: »

I am highly suspect of the numbers reported too, for previous reasons laid out on this thread by others, but also, people at home don't realise that Swedes take all of July and the first week of August off every year. There wasn't a soul around in Stockholm since the end of June until last weekend. I would assume a backdating of numbers could be on the cards in the coming weeks.

They are indeed having an increase in daily deaths at present which, as you point out, is likely due to return from summer holidays.

It is good to have people based in Sweden posting on this thread. I would be interested to know whether the topic of Covid-19 is still high on the news agenda. Have TV programmes such as dramas and so forth resumed filming? Are there studio audiences?

Also another poster suggested that for most Swedes the Covid-19 issue is more or less over as far as they are concerned. It no longer occupies their thoughts. Would you tend to agree with this?

Spiderman0081

Bit cynical wrote: »

They are indeed having an increase in daily deaths at present which, as you point out, is likely due to return from summer holidays.

It is good to have people based in Sweden posting on this thread. I would be interested to know whether the topic of Covid-19 is still high on the news agenda. Have TV programmes such as dramas and so forth resumed filming? Are there studio audiences?

Also another poster suggested that for most Swedes the Covid-19 issue is more or less over as far as they are concerned. It no longer occupies their thoughts. Would you tend to agree with this?

In my opinion, it’s definitely on most people’s thoughts as much as washing hands and keeping a distance from others where possible. But the fear that, what I would say, the majority of people here on boards express is in my experiences non existent here in Sweden. But none of my colleagues at work or my girlfriends family are in any way worried about going to work or eating at a restaurant. My girlfriends parents are in the late 60’s and her grandmother is in her 80’s. Try telling them they are not allowed see their grandchildren or go out for a coffee. They know the risks. In the beginning I was very against them visiting their grandchildren. For weeks. But in the end they just turned up and told me it was not my decision to make.
When saying that people in Ireland are fearful, and those that I know in Sweden are not, I am speaking from my own perspective.
I don’t know of anyone thankfully that has passed from covid, but I know plenty that have had it, and not one of them have fallen ill more than a cold or sore throat. It could be one of the reasons why many are not afraid. Of course things could get a lot worse here in Stockholm again, who knows. But thankfully I am living in a city where my friends and family are unlikely to panic.

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

You would make a very poor teacher.
Baseline deaths for Sweden are minus for every week up until the end of April.
What does that tell you teacher ?

OMG, more of it. There is only z scopre for Sweden that is irrelevant to my point.

Look at the European baseline here



It clearly shows deaths are expect to peak at the end of Janaury in Europe each year.

Can anyone else understand my point that deaths are likely expected to be higher in first six months?
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

If so, can you explain to Charlie. I give up.

nw1dqsv7amx026

mcsean2163 wrote: »

OMG, more of it. There is only z scopre for Sweden that is irrelevant to my point.

Look at the European baseline here



It clearly shows deaths are expect to peak at the end of Janaury in Europe each year.

Can anyone else understand my point that deaths are likely expected to be higher in first six months?
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

If so, can you explain to Charlie. I give up.

I tried.

He won't ever provide any references, won't explain his logic. But you should just accept his assertions.

Last time he stated that his numbers were in euromomo, but by country I only see z scores.
In my experience when somebody is that hostile and defensive when questioned on a technical subject they claim to understand, it's normally because they're out of their depth, don't know the subject and are afraid to look stupid.

I don't believe he really understands the statistics behind the euromomo graphs on Sweden.
That said it is possible Sweden under reported.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I tried.

He won't ever provide any references, won't explain his logic. But you should just accept his assertions.

Last time he stated that his numbers were in euromomo, but by country I only see z scores.
In my experience when somebody is that hostile and defensive when questioned on a technical subject they claim to understand, it's normally because they're out of their depth, don't know the subject and are afraid to look stupid.

I don't believe he really understands the statistics behind the euromomo graphs on Sweden.
That said it is possible Sweden under reported.

If you wish to ignore actual statistics from Statista and Euromomo in favour of mythical "expected" January deaths that didn`t happen in January. Or for the first 11 weeks of the year for that matter, because it`s at variance with your agenda, you work away. Even though it is clear from your bluster you actually do get it.
I have wasted enough of my time with you.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

OMG, more of it. There is only z scopre for Sweden that is irrelevant to my point.

Look at the European baseline here



It clearly shows deaths are expect to peak at the end of Janaury in Europe each year.

Can anyone else understand my point that deaths are likely expected to be higher in first six months?
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

If so, can you explain to Charlie. I give up.

^ ^ ^ ^
See above.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

I think he's talking about you Charlie. You should reply and set him straight.

That poster is perceptive.
He managed to get you much faster than it took me.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

That poster is perceptive.
He managed to get you much faster than it took me.

That's a unique perspective.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

If you wish to ignore actual statistics from Statista and Euromomo in favour of mythical "expected" January deaths that didn`t happen in January. Or for the first 11 weeks of the year for that matter, because it`s at variance with your agenda, you work away. Even though it is clear from your bluster you actually do get it.
I have wasted enough of my time with you.

So explain to me how you extracted a figure for excess deaths when all you have is z normalised scores. Or even tell me what extra information you would need to do so.

I'm sure you've googled normalisation by now.

gabeeg

Polite but snide I see.

Bit cynical

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

In my opinion, it’s definitely on most people’s thoughts as much as washing hands and keeping a distance from others where possible. But the fear that, what I would say, the majority of people here on boards express is in my experiences non existent here in Sweden. But none of my colleagues at work or my girlfriends family are in any way worried about going to work or eating at a restaurant. My girlfriends parents are in the late 60’s and her grandmother is in her 80’s. Try telling them they are not allowed see their grandchildren or go out for a coffee. They know the risks. In the beginning I was very against them visiting their grandchildren. For weeks. But in the end they just turned up and told me it was not my decision to make.
When saying that people in Ireland are fearful, and those that I know in Sweden are not, I am speaking from my own perspective.
I don’t know of anyone thankfully that has passed from covid, but I know plenty that have had it, and not one of them have fallen ill more than a cold or sore throat. It could be one of the reasons why many are not afraid. Of course things could get a lot worse here in Stockholm again, who knows. But thankfully I am living in a city where my friends and family are unlikely to panic.

Thank you for that perspective. It can be hard to judge how a situation is affecting people from newspaper reports and statistics. Things like a gradual return to normality are not newsworthy and tend not to be reported.

I think in Ireland a lot of the fear that initially kept people in their homes is gone now but politically we're still stuck; no government wants to preside over rising cases even if potentially more long-term damage is done by maintaining restrictions.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

So explain to me how you extracted a figure for excess deaths when all you have is z normalised scores. Or even tell me what extra information you would need to do so.

I'm sure you've googled normalisation by now.

I have already clearly explained, and why, I believe I have wasted enough of my time on you.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

92/12 x 7 = 53,667

60,000 - 53,667 = 6,333 - about 600 more than reported covid numbers - not a massive difference and possibly accounted for by other deaths.

88/12 x 7 = 51,333

Finally, 90/12 x 7 = 52.5 - 7,500 of an excess.

It could be any of these numbers, but if we agree to the 90k a year number, then its about 1900 of an excess over covid. We simply do not know the cause of these deaths. It may be the Swedes count covid deaths differently to Ireland for example - someone who was terminally ill with something else also happened to have covid or suspected covid at time of death, but the other illness killed them.

Agreed. It could also be to do with Sweden only reporting Covid-19 deaths of those who tested positive before they passed.

nw1dqsv7amx026

You told me that a percentage which calculated deaths by age group was a mathematical theory. I probably should have realised then that you didn't understand the numbers.

charlie14 wrote: »

...and a theory based on mathematical percentages. A mathematical theory ?

Then hostility again which is the bluffers standard response when their lack of understanding is questioned.

charlie14 wrote: »

I have already clearly explained, and why, I believe I have wasted enough of my time on you.

Feel free to post a link to where you think you attempted to explain anything.

Onesea

So 8nstead of panicing about the amount dieing we are more concerned over the method of counting death and if numbers are honest.
All lockdowns are now based on detecting the virus instead of sick people.

Seriously wtf is going on.


The Australian pm even admitted he doesn't have access to the prediction models, nor does anyone in government.

Ita almost like anarchy is the plan

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

You told me that a percentage which calculated deaths by age group was a mathematical theory. I probably should have realised then that you didn't understand the numbers.

What are you waffling about now.
Some here were attempting to deaths of over 65`s in Ireland and Sweden as proof that regardless of lockdown or no lockdown the percentage of over 65`s dying from Covid-19 would be the same.

I asked you if you believed it was a mathematical theory. As in if it was then when applied to other countries it showed the same.
As to your, my not understanding the numbers, you realised incorrectly.
I have posted the numbers for all four Scandinavian countries which shows it clearly doesn`t apply.
But then acting like a belligerent spoiled brat you conveniently overlooked that with your snide "you didn`t understand the numbers"

CalamariFritti

charlie14 wrote: »

Agreed. It could also be to do with Sweden only reporting Covid-19 deaths of those who tested positive before they passed.

Sorry this has caught my attention. I could be terribly behind the thread. Or missing something obvious.

But my question would be why would you count anyone else?

greyday

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Sorry this has caught my attention. I could be terribly behind the thread. Or missing something obvious.

But my question would be why would you count anyone else?

Ireland counts suspected cases of covid deaths.
If you don't test then you could potentially have no deaths attributed to Covid.

thereitisgone

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-coronavirus-rate-similar-stockholm-a4522381.html

If true a lot of deaths in Sweden for nothing

charlie14

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Sorry this has caught my attention. I could be terribly behind the thread. Or missing something obvious.

But my question would be why would you count anyone else?

As greyday said, if you are only counting those that passed after they tested positive, then there is the possibility that you are not including those that passed due to Covid-19 but did not test positive prior to that.

SeaBreezes

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Sorry this has caught my attention. I could be terribly behind the thread. Or missing something obvious.

But my question would be why would you count anyone else?

It’s a novel virus. Only 1 month ago they figured out it causes blood clots and triggers heart attacks and strokes. Before that, who knew? It attacks organs and depletes oxygen to levels not seen before in functioning people.

Excess deaths is the only real measure of accuracy.

CalamariFritti

greyday wrote: »

Ireland counts suspected cases of covid deaths.
If you don't test then you could potentially have no deaths attributed to Covid.

So what are they doing? Are they testing them after they die? Or do they just go and say 'yup COVID'?

CalamariFritti

charlie14 wrote: »

As greyday said, if you are only counting those that passed after they tested positive, then there is the possibility that you are not including those that passed due to Covid-19 but did not test positive prior to that.

But if you count suspected then there is the possibility that you're over counting, no?

bb1234567

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But if you count suspected then there is the possibility that you're over counting, no?

It's a possibility but it's just not that likely. Respiratory illness cases in July and August are just not common,especially not in hotspot zones where these suspected deaths are counted due to there being so many cases. The symptoms of COVID are pretty specific for the most part, I'm sure most doctors and coroners are pretty adept at spotting it in patients alive and deceased.

CalamariFritti

bb1234567 wrote: »

It's a possibility but it's just not that likely. Respiratory illness cases in July and August are just not common,especially not in hotspot zones where these suspected deaths are counted due to there being so many cases. The symptoms of COVID are pretty specific for the most part, I'm sure most doctors and coroners are pretty adept at spotting it in patients alive and deceased.

So why didnt they test them then if the symptoms are so clear cut?