Sweden avoiding lockdown

Spiderman0081

thereitisgone wrote: »

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-coronavirus-rate-similar-stockholm-a4522381.html

If true a lot of deaths in Sweden for nothing

Not sure what you mean. It’s been explained before many times that Sweden’s strategy from the very beginning was to try and live with the virus. Herd immunity might have been a byproduct of living with the virus.
I think the only thing that the article would prove if true, is that the lockdown in the Uk was completely pointless if the same ratio of people became infected in one city that had a complete lockdown and one that had a more light handed approach.

Bit cynical

thereitisgone wrote: »

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-coronavirus-rate-similar-stockholm-a4522381.html

If true a lot of deaths in Sweden for nothing

How are you drawing that conclusion from the article?

greyday

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

Not sure what you mean. It’s been explained before many times that Sweden’s strategy from the very beginning was to try and live with the virus. Herd immunity might have been a byproduct of living with the virus.
I think the only thing that the article would prove if true, is that the lockdown in the Uk was completely pointless if the same ratio of people became infected in one city that had a complete lockdown and one that had a more light handed approach.

What it proves is that the UK locked down too late.

charlie14

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But if you count suspected then there is the possibility that you're over counting, no?

HIQA recently estimated that in Ireland we have been, and that Covid-19 deaths are 1,100 -1,200.

mcsean2163

https://reason.com/2020/08/14/did-sweden-accidentally-blunder-into-covid-19-herd-immunity/#comments

i_surge

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://reason.com/2020/08/14/did-sweden-accidentally-blunder-into-covid-19-herd-immunity/#comments

This T cell business, is that code for the asymptomatic? They can still spread it which lends me to be quite skeptical of that attempt to shoe horn the model to say 35%, not very believable but I'm keeping an open mind.

mcsean2163

i_surge wrote: »

This T cell business, is that code for the asymptomatic?

No

i_surge

mcsean2163 wrote: »

No

Does it indicate who had corona but are now not showing antibodies?

Or is it a new class of people who neither get ill or spread it?

Confused

Bit cynical

i_surge wrote: »

Does it indicate who had corona but are now not showing antibodies?

Or is it a new class of people who neither get ill or spread it?

Confused

Potentially both if the research is to be believed. Some immunity may exist from exposure to other coronaviruses as well as exposure to the current one. This means that a segment of the population may already have some immunity prior to the outbreak and others who have been exposed may have immunity while being negative on anti-body tests.

i_surge

Bit cynical wrote: »

Potentially both if the research is to be believed. Some immunity may exist from exposure to other coronaviruses as well as exposure to the current one. This means that a segment of the population may already have some immunity prior to the outbreak and others who have been exposed may have immunity while being negative on anti-body tests.

If the virus runs out of road at 35% I will be pleasantly shocked.

What % have the most infected places gotten to? New jersey, lombardy?

dubrov

greyday wrote: »

Ireland counts suspected cases of covid deaths.
If you don't test then you could potentially have no deaths attributed to Covid.

Surely there are at least tests after death to confirm?

greyday

dubrov wrote: »

Surely there are at least tests after death to confirm?

Not in Sweden at the start, they may have changed course but I doubt it, it helps keep the numbers down when others are being critical of the approach.

dubrov

greyday wrote:

Not in Sweden at the start, they may have changed course but I doubt it, it helps keep the numbers down when others are being critical of the approach.

I meant in Ireland. They are hardly recording all suspected cases even when Covid is not the main cause of death. That would seriously overstate the numbers

sydthebeat

dubrov wrote: »

I meant in Ireland. They are hardly recording all suspected cases even when Covid is not the main cause of death. That would seriously overstate the numbers

If covid is 'suspected' its recorded as a covid death.

Ireland figures, if anything, are on the over stated side.

As Sweden initially didn't include deaths unless there was a positive covid test, their figures are on the under stated side.

PokeHerKing

dubrov wrote: »

I meant in Ireland. They are hardly recording all suspected cases even when Covid is not the main cause of death. That would seriously overstate the numbers

Irelands excess deaths are only around 1200 to date, so we do seem to have over counted our Covid19 deaths.

seamus

dubrov wrote: »

I meant in Ireland. They are hardly recording all suspected cases even when Covid is not the main cause of death. That would seriously overstate the numbers

Ireland's covid deaths are overstated by about 30%. The government confirmed this.
Better to overcount than undercount.

patnor1011

The data suggest that lockdowns have not prevented any deaths from covid-19. At best, lockdowns have deferred death for a short time, but they cannot possibly be continued for the long term. It seems likely that one will not have to even compare economic deprivation with loss of life, as the final death toll following authoritarian lockdowns will most likely exceed the deaths from letting people choose how to manage their own risk. After taking the unprecedented economic depression into account, history will likely judge these lockdowns to be the greatest policy error of this generation. Covid-19 is not going to be defeated; we will have to learn how to coexist with it. The only way we can learn how best to cope with covid-19 is to let individuals manage their own risk, observe the outcomes, and learn from mistakes. The world owes a great debt to Sweden for setting an example that the rest of us can follow.

Not my words but I pretty much agree with what is said here. Full article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/why-americans-should-adopt-sweden-model-covid-19

bb1234567

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Irelands excess deaths are only around 1200 to date, so we do seem to have over counted our Covid19 deaths.

Of course that's possible but the lower excess death doesn't necessarily prove that. This also coincided with a lockdown in Ireland which has been shown to lower homicide, suicide, car crash death rates, etc. Maybe it had very little impact, who knows, but it can't be dismissed, maybe it had a significant impact on lowering mortality overall.

In Ireland a majority of deaths were in nursing homes, these people are not going to live any more than a couple of years more than when covid killed them. Their deaths would have a much smaller impact on excess mortality due to mortality displacement theory,this doesn't meant that their deaths caused by Covid were overcoubted just because it had a smaller impact on national mortality excess. This is in comparison with Sweden,and most of the rest of the world, where most deaths were in the community , where people are healthier and more likely to live a significant number more years of life.

greyday

Close to half Swedens deaths have been in nursing homes.

patnor1011

patnor1011 wrote: »

The data suggest that lockdowns have not prevented any deaths from covid-19. At best, lockdowns have deferred death for a short time, but they cannot possibly be continued for the long term. It seems likely that one will not have to even compare economic deprivation with loss of life, as the final death toll following authoritarian lockdowns will most likely exceed the deaths from letting people choose how to manage their own risk. After taking the unprecedented economic depression into account, history will likely judge these lockdowns to be the greatest policy error of this generation. Covid-19 is not going to be defeated; we will have to learn how to coexist with it. The only way we can learn how best to cope with covid-19 is to let individuals manage their own risk, observe the outcomes, and learn from mistakes. The world owes a great debt to Sweden for setting an example that the rest of us can follow.

Not my words but I pretty much agree with what is said here. Full article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/why-americans-should-adopt-sweden-model-covid-19

zerohedge is a pro-Russian pro-Trump far right libertarian blog that's been banned from multiple social media networks.


You should be questioning what it says about you as a person that you're agreeing with anything posted on that website, rather than parroting it's rank bull****.

https://newrepublic.com/article/156788/zero-hedge-russian-trojan-horse

https://www.newyorker.com/news/benjamin-wallace-wells/is-the-alt-right-for-real

Nermal

Deleted User wrote: »

zerohedge is a pro-Russian pro-Trump far right libertarian blog that's been banned from multiple social media networks.

You should be questioning what it says about you as a person that you're agreeing with anything posted on that website, rather than parroting it's rank bull****.

https://newrepublic.com/article/156788/zero-hedge-russian-trojan-horse

https://www.newyorker.com/news/benjamin-wallace-wells/is-the-alt-right-for-real

If nothing else, this event has made it clear how many of us are now incapable of independent reading, thinking and judgement.

We just rely on taking sides. Why bother reading something? All I need to figure out is if the invisible hand of the Russians was behind it, or alternatively that of George Soros, then I'll decide whether I agree with it or not.

It's republished from the Mises Institute. Is that a pro-Russian source?

Spiderman0081

sydthebeat wrote: »

If covid is 'suspected' its recorded as a covid death.

Ireland figures, if anything, are on the over stated side.

As Sweden initially didn't include deaths unless there was a positive covid test, their figures are on the under stated side.

You mean to say that certain deaths should have been counted as covid deaths even if a positive covid test result was not produced?

greyday

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

You mean to say that certain deaths should have been counted as covid deaths even if a positive covid test result was not produced?

Autopsies were not carried out in most of Ireland on suspected Covid deaths as there are only two locations in the Country capable of carrying out Autopsies on infectious bodies, this is why a lot of deaths where Covid was suspected were classified as Covid deaths.

Do you know if Sweden has been carrying out Autopsies on suspected Covid deaths?

biko

greyday wrote: »

Do you know if Sweden has been carrying out Autopsies on suspected Covid deaths?

Not as standard procedure anyway, just a few autopsies so far.

Spiderman0081

greyday wrote: »

Autopsies were not carried out in most of Ireland on suspected Covid deaths as there are only two locations in the Country capable of carrying out Autopsies on infectious bodies, this is why a lot of deaths where Covid was suspected were classified as Covid deaths.

Do you know if Sweden has been carrying out Autopsies on suspected Covid deaths?

I have no idea. Where would one find the information that states Sweden may have missed many covid deaths because tests were not done?

the incredible pudding

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

I have no idea. Where would one find the information that states Sweden may have missed many covid deaths because tests were not done?

I read before that around 10-15% of the cases were via investigation after the death (so where they hadn't been tested positive before hand).

From the social service page

"Number of deaths up to 10 August 2020: 5,612
Of these, 90 percent (5,032 out of 5,612) have laboratory-confirmed covid-19 according to the Swedish Public Health Agency's database of infected people."

Spiderman0081

the incredible pudding wrote: »

I read before that around 10-15% of the cases were via investigation after the death (so where they hadn't been tested positive before hand).

From the social service page

"Number of deaths up to 10 August 2020: 5,612
Of these, 90 percent (5,032 out of 5,612) have laboratory-confirmed covid-19 according to the Swedish Public Health Agency's database of infected people."

Ok thanks. But as I understand there is no evidence to say that of that 90%, how many deaths were caused by covid, and not died with covid. A news article in Sweden today stated that a province of Sweden did complete an investigation in to the actual cause of death in those who passed away with covid in their system, in that province. I will google translate the article. It states
“ A large majority of the elderly who died outside the hospital with confirmed covid-19 also had other diseases that contributed to or were absolutely decisive for the patient's death. This is shown by a review carried out by the Östergötland Region.

The region has reviewed all cases where an elderly person has died at home or in special accommodation with confirmed covid-19. In 15 percent of the cases examined, the coronavirus was judged to be the direct cause of death, but for 70 percent, the virus was more of a contributing cause than direct. For 15 percent, the cause of death was other diseases, reports Läkartidningen and Vårdfokus.”

I imagine that this might be the case in many recorded deaths, both in Sweden and Ireland.

greyday

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

Ok thanks. But as I understand there is no evidence to say that of that 90%, how many deaths were caused by covid, and not died with covid. A news article in Sweden today stated that a province of Sweden did complete an investigation in to the actual cause of death in those who passed away with covid in their system, in that province. I will google translate the article. It states
“ A large majority of the elderly who died outside the hospital with confirmed covid-19 also had other diseases that contributed to or were absolutely decisive for the patient's death. This is shown by a review carried out by the Östergötland Region.

The region has reviewed all cases where an elderly person has died at home or in special accommodation with confirmed covid-19. In 15 percent of the cases examined, the coronavirus was judged to be the direct cause of death, but for 70 percent, the virus was more of a contributing cause than direct. For 15 percent, the cause of death was other diseases, reports Läkartidningen and Vårdfokus.”

I imagine that this might be the case in many recorded deaths, both in Sweden and Ireland.

I doubt anyone is doubting this is the case, it is the main reason the virus is so deadly for our most vulnerable elderly people, when you live to a good age you will no doubt have picked up many ailments along the way which Covid exploits causing death.

the incredible pudding

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

Ok thanks. But as I understand there is no evidence to say that of that 90%, how many deaths were caused by covid, and not died with covid. A news article in Sweden today stated that a province of Sweden did complete an investigation in to the actual cause of death in those who passed away with covid in their system, in that province. I will google translate the article. It states
“ A large majority of the elderly who died outside the hospital with confirmed covid-19 also had other diseases that contributed to or were absolutely decisive for the patient's death. This is shown by a review carried out by the Östergötland Region.

The region has reviewed all cases where an elderly person has died at home or in special accommodation with confirmed covid-19. In 15 percent of the cases examined, the coronavirus was judged to be the direct cause of death, but for 70 percent, the virus was more of a contributing cause than direct. For 15 percent, the cause of death was other diseases, reports Läkartidningen and Vårdfokus.”

I imagine that this might be the case in many recorded deaths, both in Sweden and Ireland.

Oh absolutely, I corrected someone here before who was saying that, say if someone had covid and died from being hit by a car that it would be counted in Ireland but not Sweden. It's my understanding that it would be counted in both countries.

greyday

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Oh absolutely, I corrected someone here before who was saying that, say if someone had covid and died from being hit by a car that it would be counted in Ireland but not Sweden. It's my understanding that it would be counted in both countries.

Covid would not be listed as cause of death if you were killed in a car accident intentionally, it is not the main cause of death.
Where Covid could be listed is if someone with an underlying condition contracted Covid and died, Covid in this instance could have been a main contributor if the underlying condition could be managed in normal times.