Sweden avoiding lockdown

bb1234567

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Oh absolutely, I corrected someone here before who was saying that, say if someone had covid and died from being hit by a car that it would be counted in Ireland but not Sweden. It's my understanding that it would be counted in both countries.

Well I will now correct you both as you are all incorrect. Car crash victim who tested positive would not be counted as a Covid death in Ireland , Sweden or any country on the entire planet.

These are the guidelines issued by WHO and folllwed directly by the HSE.

'A death due to COVID-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma).'

https://www.thejournal.ie/how-are-covid-19-probable-deaths-counted-5102540-Jul2020/

So that idiotic statement can stop being bandied about perhaps. Just stop and think for a second maybe, do you think if all people who died and were covid positive at the time were counted as covid deaths that we would see so incredibly few young victims in the country ? Especially given that several hundreds of thousands of people in the country had simultaneous active infections in March and April and approximately 5200 people would die in that period ordinarily, we would have seen a far larger disparity between excess death and confirmed deaths if the process was as suggested.

greyday

bb1234567 wrote: »

Well I will now correct you both as you are all incorrect. Car crash victim who tested positive would not be counted as a Covid death in Ireland , Sweden or any country on the entire planet.

These are the guidelines issued by WHO and folllwed directly by the HSE.

'A death due to COVID-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma).'

https://www.thejournal.ie/how-are-covid-19-probable-deaths-counted-5102540-Jul2020/

So that idiotic statement can stop being bandied about perhaps. Just stop and think for a second maybe, do you think if all people who died and were covid positive at the time were counted as covid deaths that we would see so incredibly few young victims in the country ? Especially given that several hundreds of thousands of people in the country had simultaneous active infections in March and April and approximately 5200 people would die in that period ordinarily, we would have seen a far larger disparity between excess death and confirmed deaths if the process was as suggested.

What exactly are you correcting me on?

bb1234567

greyday wrote: »

What exactly are you correcting me on?

Dunno if boards is glitching or something but my post is quoting pudding not you

Nermal

Nermal wrote: »

If nothing else, this event has made it clear how many of us are now incapable of independent reading, thinking and judgement.

We just rely on taking sides. Why bother reading something? All I need to figure out is if the invisible hand of the Russians was behind it, or alternatively that of George Soros, then I'll decide whether I agree with it or not.

It's republished from the Mises Institute. Is that a pro-Russian source?

The irony in your post would be amusing if it weren't so worrying. Not taking toxic 'sources' seriously isn't a sign of a loss of independent reading, thinking and judgement - it's quite the opposite. It's irrational and illogical to waste time reading articles or sources from far/alt-right movements masquerading as 'news' websites, just as it's irrational and a waste of time to read RT when looking for news on Russia.



Mises Institute is;

founded in Misesian praxeology ('the logic of action'), that holds that economic science is a deductive science rather than an empirical science

Is an institute that believes economics isn't about evidence, it's about deduction. It's listed as a hate site by the Southern Poverty Law Centre, and commonly espouses white nationalist and far-right views.


If you care so much about independent research, why is it I had to do that for you?


oh right...

patnor1011

Deleted User wrote: »

zerohedge is a pro-Russian pro-Trump far right libertarian blog that's been banned from multiple social media networks.


You should be questioning what it says about you as a person that you're agreeing with anything posted on that website, rather than parroting it's rank bull****.

https://newrepublic.com/article/156788/zero-hedge-russian-trojan-horse

https://www.newyorker.com/news/benjamin-wallace-wells/is-the-alt-right-for-real

Oh my bad. I did not realize that only anti-Trump and anti-Russian sources are permitted.
Try to shoot a message and not a messenger. Trying to put some label on someone else is so woke novadays but it is actually funny.

the incredible pudding

bb1234567 wrote: »

Well I will now correct you both as you are all incorrect. Car crash victim who tested positive would not be counted as a Covid death in Ireland , Sweden or any country on the entire planet.

These are the guidelines issued by WHO and folllwed directly by the HSE.

'A death due to COVID-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma).'

https://www.thejournal.ie/how-are-covid-19-probable-deaths-counted-5102540-Jul2020/

So that idiotic statement can stop being bandied about perhaps. Just stop and think for a second maybe, do you think if all people who died and were covid positive at the time were counted as covid deaths that we would see so incredibly few young victims in the country ? Especially given that several hundreds of thousands of people in the country had simultaneous active infections in March and April and approximately 5200 people would die in that period ordinarily, we would have seen a far larger disparity between excess death and confirmed deaths if the process was as suggested.

The hyperbolic example of the car was a poor choice on my part and it was poor judgement to use. I don't believe the ill effects of virus are being blown out of proportion or hugely misrepresented. I sincerely doubt some one asymptomatic would be tested in that case anyhow but I don't think it matters in the slightest to the main points to be debated.
It is the case where if someone is already terminal Ill and dies from that illness whilst having tested positive and failing to revover that they are counted as a covid death in both countries even if the death is not directly attributable to the virus. It's not something I take issue with but there were some here arguing that the authorities in Sweden were treating this differently than in Ireland and that is not the case.

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

Close to half Swedens deaths have been in nursing homes.

The data suggests though that it is a little more spread out among ages in Sweden than Ireland, though Sweden did sadly have a lot of care home deaths too.

When comparing Ireland and Sweden overall, Ireland's strategy has relied much more heavily on restrictions than dealing with cases as they arise. One problem with this is that even with low levels of infection in the environment, it doesn't take much for the virus to break into a nursing home and then the whole building is infected. Lockdowns in themselves don't help those in institutional care that much. The other problem is that immunity, whatever the level conferred by the virus, is likely to be much lower in Ireland. Those cases that happened in nursing homes won't have helped the general community.

On the other hand, younger people dying is obviously not desirable. Gun crime deaths as in the US are considered particularly tragic because they affect younger people.

Bit cynical

Via Dr John Cambpell:

Basically, immunity is conferred by catching a mild form of Covid-19 and is present in individuals that don't show up on antibody tests.

Good news obviously for Sweden but also good news for countries like Ireland because when a vaccine eventually comes, if there's a t-cell response then that is likely to be long lasting and robust.

Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in a large cohort of unexposed individuals as well as exposed family members and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative family members and individuals with a history of asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals.

It is important to remember, however, that herd-immunity is not an official strategy in Sweden, rather sustainable measures to curb the virus is the priority.

Bit cynical

Sweden below EU average for daily cases.

Cases have been rising in Sweden most likely due to people returning from the long July vacation but at a rate slower than the EU generally and therefore the 7-day average for Sweden is now lower than that for the EU.

Thierry12

Bit cynical wrote: »

Via Dr John Cambpell:

Basically, immunity is conferred by catching a mild form of Covid-19 and is present in individuals that don't show up on antibody tests.

Good news obviously for Sweden but also good news for countries like Ireland because when a vaccine eventually comes, if there's a t-cell response then that is likely to be long lasting and robust.

Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in a large cohort of unexposed individuals as well as exposed family members and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative family members and individuals with a history of asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals.

It is important to remember, however, that herd-immunity is not an official strategy in Sweden, rather sustainable measures to curb the virus is the priority.

He's been thinking that for a long while, just couldn't confirm it

Even on the death's

He strongly suspected most of the reported deaths in places like Italy were "with covid" not "from covid" and would have had the same eventual outcome with or without

Interesting that more people are dieing of pneumonia in the UK right now than Covid

10,000 deaths a week or so in UK now

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending7august2020

In Week 32, 13.0% of all deaths in England and Wales mentioned “Influenza and Pneumonia"

Of all deaths registered in Week 32, 1.7% mentioned COVID-19

7 times more dieing from “Influenza and Pneumonia" than Covid19 in UK right now

mcsean2163

the incredible pudding wrote: »

The hyperbolic example of the car was a poor choice on my part and it was poor judgement to use. I don't believe the ill effects of virus are being blown out of proportion or hugely misrepresented. I sincerely doubt some one asymptomatic would be tested in that case anyhow but I don't think it matters in the slightest to the main points to be debated.
It is the case where if someone is already terminal Ill and dies from that illness whilst having tested positive and failing to revover that they are counted as a covid death in both countries even if the death is not directly attributable to the virus. It's not something I take issue with but there were some here arguing that the authorities in Sweden were treating this differently than in Ireland and that is not the case.

Yep. Anyone dying with covid19 was logged as a covid19 death but egregious exceptions e.g. carcrash would most likely not be included.

mcsean2163

the incredible pudding wrote: »

The hyperbolic example of the car was a poor choice on my part and it was poor judgement to use. I don't believe the ill effects of virus are being blown out of proportion or hugely misrepresented. I sincerely doubt some one asymptomatic would be tested in that case anyhow but I don't think it matters in the slightest to the main points to be debated.
It is the case where if someone is already terminal Ill and dies from that illness whilst having tested positive and failing to revover that they are counted as a covid death in both countries even if the death is not directly attributable to the virus. It's not something I take issue with but there were some here arguing that the authorities in Sweden were treating this differently than in Ireland and that is not the case.

Yep. Anyone dying with covid19 was logged as a covid19 death but egregious exceptions e.g. carcrash would most likely not be included.

bb1234567

What percentage of the population is theorised to not present with antibodies even after infection ? Is there an updated figure?

A lot of studies recently are showing huge level of antibody response in some populations

51% of citizens in the state of Pune India had antibodies
https://m.timesofindia.com/city/pune/citys-first-sero-survey-shows-51-5-citizens-have-covid-antibodies/articleshow/77602008.cms

Even if 100% of people in Pune were infected it seems like at least a majority of people develop antibodies in response to infections. Heard some people mention 2x-4x times as many people develop T cell response, this doesn't seem to align with reality really.

Spiderman0081

Bit cynical wrote: »

Sweden below EU average for daily cases.

Cases have been rising in Sweden most likely due to people returning from the long July vacation but at a rate slower than the EU generally and therefore the 7-day average for Sweden is now lower than that for the EU.

FHM have been saying with several weeks now that they expect to see a rise in the number of confirmed cases when people return from their holidays. Coupled with the fact that the weather here in Sweden has been very hot the last couple of weeks and many bathing spots have been overly busy.

Bit cynical

bb1234567 wrote: »

What percentage of the population is theorised to not present with antibodies even after infection ? Is there an updated figure?

A lot of studies recently are showing huge level of antibody response in some populations

51% of citizens in the state of Pune India had antibodies
https://m.timesofindia.com/city/pune/citys-first-sero-survey-shows-51-5-citizens-have-covid-antibodies/articleshow/77602008.cms

Even if 100% of people in Pune were infected it seems like at least a majority of people develop antibodies in response to infections. Heard some people mention 2x-4x times as many people develop T cell response, this doesn't seem to align with reality really.

I don't think the paper estimates the proportion with t-cell vs antibodies. It was more about robustness of t-cell immunity. The paper also infers that such immunity should be long-lasting based on what was observed with MERS and SARS-1.

Also from the study:

The anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG responses against the nucleocapsid and spike antigens were strongly correlated (Figure S8A). Further analysisrevealed that SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+andCD8+T cellresponses were present in seronegative individuals,albeit at lower frequencies compared with seropositive individuals (Figure 4F). These discordant responses were nonetheless pronounced in some convalescent individualswith a history of asymptomatic/mild COVID-19, exposed family members, and healthy individuals who donated blood during the pandemic (Figure 4Fand S8B, S8C),often targeting both the internal (nucleocapsid) and surface antigens (membraneand/or spike) of SARS-CoV-2(Figure 4G).

Suggesting that milder asymptomatic infections were more likely to produce the t-cell response alone.

With regard to Pune, I think many people there are likely to get the disease at the same time as it will spread quickly there. Therefore if an antibody test is carried out at the right time it will catch many people with antibodies whereas the same test in, say, Sweden the same test will catch people at different stages, some with antibodies and others who caught the virus earlier with just the t-cell response.

Another factor is that in a densely populated Indian city, the herd immunity threshold is likely to be much higher than in the developed West, so you are going to see more people who have caught the disease generally.

mcsean2163

bb1234567 wrote: »

What percentage of the population is theorised to not present with antibodies even after infection ? Is there an updated figure?

A lot of studies recently are showing huge level of antibody response in some populations

51% of citizens in the state of Pune India had antibodies
https://m.timesofindia.com/city/pune/citys-first-sero-survey-shows-51-5-citizens-have-covid-antibodies/articleshow/77602008.cms

Even if 100% of people in Pune were infected it seems like at least a majority of people develop antibodies in response to infections. Heard some people mention 2x-4x times as many people develop T cell response, this doesn't seem to align with reality really.

Agree. It might depend on the local population too and the diseases they've been exposed to. A lot of the literature seems contradictory and confusing, this has been confusing me too.

biko

biko wrote: »

What we need to do to get true-ish numbers is to wait for general death stats for the year.
Below are deaths per year for the country

2015 91000
2016 91000
2017 92 000
2018 92 000
2019 89 000

Numbers have been pretty constant at 90K since 1977.
2002 was a very high year with 95000 dead
As Swedish population is increased medical advances improve keeping the 90K figure stable

Sweden has (unsurprisingly) the most deaths in 150 years.

In total, 51,405 Swedes died in the January to June period, a higher number than any year since 1869 when 55,431 died - partly as a result of a famine.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden/sweden-records-highest-death-tally-in-150-years-in-first-six-months-of-2020-idUSKCN25F1YL

bb1234567

That is pretty surprising, I would have thought that even without adjusting for population growth Sweden would have seen far more deaths in total in 1918 than now. Would be interesting to compare the years then,Swedens population is about 75% larger today than it was in 1918.

biko

If we compare to the last two years they average 90.5k
For the first half of 2020 we could expect 45.2 (give or take for winter deaths etc) but we got 51.4k so the reported 5800 dead by Covid alone so far seems pretty close (45.2k+5.8k=51k)*.


*guesstimates of course

dubrov

biko wrote: »

If we compare to the last two years they average 90.5k
For the first half of 2020 we could expect 45.2 (give or take for winter deaths etc) but we got 51.4k so the reported 5800 dead by Covid alone so far seems pretty close (45.2k+5.8k=51k)*.


*guesstimates of course

What's your source for the 51.4k?

patnor1011

biko wrote: »

If we compare to the last two years they average 90.5k
For the first half of 2020 we could expect 45.2 (give or take for winter deaths etc) but we got 51.4k so the reported 5800 dead by Covid alone so far seems pretty close (45.2k+5.8k=51k)*.


*guesstimates of course

Say 6k more died than what "was expected" on the other hand it was mostly people with other serious underlying condition. It is possible that there will be smaller number than "expected" in the other half of the year. Only time will tell. It is all just speculation but come january-february we will have numbers for most of the countries and we can compare stats.
I still think that their approach was much better than total lockdown. We should have go more precisely - to protect vulnerable and people at risk and not spend resources to keep young and healthy people at home.

Thierry12

biko wrote: »

Sweden has (unsurprisingly) the most deaths in 150 years.

In total, 51,405 Swedes died in the January to June period, a higher number than any year since 1869 when 55,431 died - partly as a result of a famine.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden/sweden-records-highest-death-tally-in-150-years-in-first-six-months-of-2020-idUSKCN25F1YL

I dont see the Jan - June period for all those years?

More people die in the first half of the year anyway? Especially Swedish winter

Wouldnt that be obvious

biko

dubrov wrote: »

What's your source for the 51.4k?

The Reuters article I posted.

Thierry12 wrote: »

I dont see the Jan - June period for all those years?

More people die in the first half of the year anyway? Especially Swedish winter

Wouldnt that be obvious

Unless Reuters did count the first six months and just didn't write it out as it's implied.

dubrov

biko wrote: »

The Reuters article I posted.

Unless Reuters did count the first six months and just didn't write it out as it's implied.

Thanks for that.
Some good death statistics here by day

Amazingly, deaths are pretty consistent in the last 5 years.
It looks like there was as significant spike in late March but had returned to normal by late June.

If anything it is lower than normal now but I'm unsure if that is because some deaths are reported late.

StefanFal

My kids just back at school this week in Sweden.

No social distancing arrangements in class or outdoors.
No mask wearing for both students and teachers.

A few weeks before the end of the term when infection rate was increasing they removed all plates and cups from school canteen. The kids would bring a lunchbox with knife fork and a cup to school. This isn't necessary now and its back to normal.

If your kid has any symptoms keep them home. They must be 2 days without any symptoms before they return to school.

Nice reduction in cases over the past 2 months. Everyone was on holidays and Swedes distance themselves from others anyway. Interesting to see the numbers in the coming weeks.

Bit cynical

StefanFal wrote: »

My kids just back at school this week in Sweden.

No social distancing arrangements in class or outdoors.
No mask wearing for both students and teachers.

A few weeks before the end of the term when infection rate was increasing they removed all plates and cups from school canteen. The kids would bring a lunchbox with knife fork and a cup to school. This isn't necessary now and its back to normal.

If your kid has any symptoms keep them home. They must be 2 days without any symptoms before they return to school.

Nice reduction in cases over the past 2 months. Everyone was on holidays and Swedes distance themselves from others anyway. Interesting to see the numbers in the coming weeks.

Very valuable to get the views of those based in Sweden.

There has been a rise in cases in August but it seems to have been less pronounced than expected given the numbers who take annual leave in July.

donaghs

bb1234567 wrote: »

Well I will now correct you both as you are all incorrect. Car crash victim who tested positive would not be counted as a Covid death in Ireland , Sweden or any country on the entire planet.

These are the guidelines issued by WHO and folllwed directly by the HSE.

'A death due to COVID-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma).'

https://www.thejournal.ie/how-are-covid-19-probable-deaths-counted-5102540-Jul2020/

So that idiotic statement can stop being bandied about perhaps. Just stop and think for a second maybe, do you think if all people who died and were covid positive at the time were counted as covid deaths that we would see so incredibly few young victims in the country ? Especially given that several hundreds of thousands of people in the country had simultaneous active infections in March and April and approximately 5200 people would die in that period ordinarily, we would have seen a far larger disparity between excess death and confirmed deaths if the process was as suggested.

The website of Washington state USA basically admits that they were counting people who tested positive for COVID and died (of anything?). They admit to correcting this and removing people who had COVID and died of suicide, homicide and overdoses. https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/ChangingCriteriaUsedtoReportDeathsReCOVID.pdf?ver=2020-06-17-151822-090

The UK had similar issues, and removed over 5,000 “COVID deaths” from their stats.

PHG

Thierry12 wrote: »

I dont see the Jan - June period for all those years?

More people die in the first half of the year anyway? Especially Swedish winter

Wouldnt that be obvious

Last winter was incredibly mild. In Sweden they say winter arrives when you have 5 days in arrow of below 0. Did not happen last winter. Never took the snow boots out once. Was very much like a winter at home except a lot less daylight.

Had a nice experience of an old Swedish man shout a couple beside us on the bus for wearing masks too. Since the 1st of August have now seen 6 people wearing masks.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Very valuable to get the views of those based in Sweden.

There has been a rise in cases in August but it seems to have been less pronounced than expected given the numbers who take annual leave in July.

Since the start of the holiday season in July it has been difficult to know what deaths there have been due to Covid-19 there have been in Sweden using Worldometers, but from The Local se there has been 392 for the month.
I wouldn`t have thought it was that high from reading posts here ?

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Since the start of the holiday season in July it has been difficult to know what deaths there have been due to Covid-19 there have been in Sweden using Worldometers, but from The Local se there has been 392 for the month.
I wouldn`t have thought it was that high from reading posts here ?

I was talking about a rise in detected cases not deaths in that post.