Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I was talking about a rise in detected cases not deaths in that post.

Point taken, but is that figure of 392 deaths for July correct do you know ?
I was under the impression the number was much lower than close to an average of around a 100 deaths a week.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Point taken, but is that figure of 392 deaths for July correct do you know ?
I was under the impression the number was much lower than close to an average of around a 100 deaths a week.

I'm not sure but generally I would not use worldometers for data from Sweden as the last time I looked they were using the wrong dataset. Looks daily deaths had been falling throughout the month of July from about 168 per week down to about 30 per week at the end of the month but this may be abnormally low. On the other hand cases have not been rising that fast so we will have to see.

Ozark707

charlie14 wrote: »

Point taken, but is that figure of 392 deaths for July correct do you know ?
I was under the impression the number was much lower than close to an average of around a 100 deaths a week.

I checked the figures here :

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

I counted 288 for July.

Hopefully they are accurate figures and will not be subject to change due to a lag for holiday season.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I'm not sure but generally I would not use worldometers for data from Sweden as the last time I looked they were using the wrong dataset. Looks daily deaths had been falling throughout the month of July from about 168 per week down to about 30 per week at the end of the month but this may be abnormally low. On the other hand cases have not been rising that fast so we will have to see.

Since the beginning of the holiday season worldometers appear to have given up on reporting Swedish daily deaths. Why they did that I have no idea. Other than perhaps it was due to them perhaps feeling that with the holiday season it was difficult from time lags in Swedish reporting to post an accurate daily figure. Far as I recall in June there were quite a few days when worldometers posted Swedish daily deaths where some were subsequently backdated by Sweden to prior dates which could also be part of the reason.
Like yourself I was under the impression that July deaths were quite low and with your mention of new cases in July when I checked The Local paywall free page, which gives a daily update, I was surprised that their figure for deaths in July was 392, with 67 of those between July 24th and July 31st.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Far as I recall in June there were quite a few days when worldometers posted Swedish daily deaths where some were subsequently backdated by Sweden to prior dates which could also be part of the reason.
31st.

This looks to me that Worldometers are using the wrong dataset from Sweden.

charlie14

Ozark707 wrote: »

I checked the figures here :

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

I counted 288 for July.

Hopefully they are accurate figures and will not be subject to change due to a lag for holiday season.

The overall figure for deaths tally with those of The Local se so I can only assume that of the 392 July total 104 have been since re-allocated to prior dates.

Even without being subject to change due to a holiday lag, the weekly deaths would average close to 70 for July.

timmy_mallet

donaghs wrote: »

The website of Washington state USA basically admits that they were counting people who tested positive for COVID and died (of anything?). They admit to correcting this and removing people who had COVID and died of suicide, homicide and overdoses. https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/ChangingCriteriaUsedtoReportDeathsReCOVID.pdf?ver=2020-06-17-151822-090

The UK had similar issues, and removed over 5,000 “COVID deaths” from their stats.

I know of two people who were terminally ill, went to hospital, caught COVID in hospital, died. +2 for COVID deaths.

bb1234567

timmy_mallet wrote: »

I know of two people who were terminally ill, went to hospital, caught COVID in hospital, died. +2 for COVID deaths.

They are very unlikely to be common situations, if cases like this were in any way the norm excess mortality would not be so highly evelated across the globe currently. I'm sure some regions may be overestimating , such as Ireland where the excess mortality was lower than confirmed cases, but in most of the rest of the world excess mortality far exceeds confirmed deaths. In many developing countries deaths are 3x-8x times higher than confirmed Covid deaths. Excess deaths do not lie .

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

This looks to me that Worldometers are using the wrong dataset from Sweden.

They may indeed may be, but their overall figures tally with those of The Local who in their paywall free section give daily updates.


I do not know where The Local get their daily figure, but with that paper being Swedish, and those daily figures for deaths not tallying with those of Worldometers, it does not appear a if they getting them from Worldometers.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

The overall figure for deaths tally with those of The Local se so I can only assume that of the 392 July total 104 have been since re-allocated to prior dates.

Even without being subject to change due to a holiday lag, the weekly deaths would average close to 70 for July.

True. We don't yet know the total deaths due to Covid-19 for July in Sweden yet. Like Ireland, numbers come through over time and the figures updated. There was a spike in deaths last week in Ireland but the presenters pointed out that the actual dates of these deaths occurred over a spread out period of time. Some of them will have occurred in the previous month.

But if we are to compare like with like, we need to use figures based on date of report rather than date of death. These are the figures generally used for international comparison. On this basis, Sweden reported 429 deaths in the month of July. This will be higher than the number of actual deaths in July because Sweden's numbers have been gradually falling for several months, but it is the number generally used in graphs and charts because it does not change.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

I do not know where The Local get their daily figure, but with that paper being Swedish, and those daily figures for deaths not tallying with those of Worldometers...

But who here has been basing arguments on figures from either of those two non-official sites?

Ozark707

Bit cynical wrote: »

But who here has been basing arguments on figures from either of those two non-official sites?

Whether you agree or disagree with their approach I would expect that the official numbers in Sweden would be accurate. If not I would expect that it will come out in the wash as they take these things pretty seriously over there (well used to at least!)

the incredible pudding

Pretty sure I read in that thelocal do update their number using the official source - https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/

However, they just add the new number, subtract the difference and put in a very clear disclaimer of how these numbers are reported. Worldometers are very clearly not an accurately reflecting the figures. They could use the APIs to query the data and update their own accurately (though tbf all the field names are in Swedish and it doesn't look especially friendly).

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

True. We don't yet know the total deaths due to Covid-19 for July in Sweden yet. Like Ireland, numbers come through over time and the figures updated. There was a spike in deaths last week in Ireland but the presenters pointed out that the actual dates of these deaths occurred over a spread out period of time. Some of them will have occurred in the previous month.

But if we are to compare like with like, we need to use figures based on date of report rather than date of death. These are the figures generally used for international comparison. On this basis, Sweden reported 429 deaths in the month of July. This will be higher than the number of actual deaths in July because Sweden's numbers have been gradually falling for several months, but it is the number generally used in graphs and charts because it does not change.

I have no problem with the total Covid-19 deaths to date of 5,810. Official sources, Wordometers and The Local all quote that figure. And I can fully understand that there will be historical deaths from earlier dates.
What I cannot understand is why when reporting the previous days deaths Swedish authorities do not just list which are historical, and which are for the previous day. Same as Ireland does.

I was under the impression that the weekly deaths for July were on average around 30, but from different sources who all agree on the overall figure, they are anything from 429 to 288 for July. Even now 22 day into August we still do not know if that average of the lower 70 deaths a week is correct.
Before anyone gets the idea I am somehow attempting to suggest the Swedish authorities are trying to cover up anything, I am not. But I can understand why Worldometers post just the overall figure now and not daily deaths.

mcsean2163

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

This Swedish doctor seems to think that the Pandemic is over in Sweden...

Storm 10

Sweden PM happy

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-swedish-pm-stefan-lofven-defends-covid-19-strategy-12054315

is_that_so

Storm 10 wrote: »

Sweden PM happy

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-swedish-pm-stefan-lofven-defends-covid-19-strategy-12054315

Well, he can hardly say otherwise at this point as they sanctioned it. The likelihood of it ever being a template for any other country is negligible.

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

This Swedish doctor seems to think that the Pandemic is over in Sweden...

It’s definitely slowing down/weakening.

charlie14

Hunky Monster wrote: »

It’s definitely slowing down/weakening.

Nationally new cases have decreased, but like ourselves they appear to have areas where there are still significant spikes.
Skane county, which contains Sweden`s third largest city Malmo, reported 249 new cases. The highest new confirmed and serious cases there since June.
Stockholm, although it is only around half their cases for the same period reported 416 cases this week.

charlie14

Lord Fairlord wrote: »

For those who are pro face muzzles and Orwellian social distancing - what's the end game? A vaccine that doesn't work as often as it does?

It seems Sweden have more faith in a vaccine than you.


Richard Bergstrom, Sweden`s vaccine coordinator, expects Sweden to have up to 18 million vaccine doses available for a national vaccination programme beginning second half of next year.

Widdensushi

charlie14 wrote: »

It seems Sweden have more faith in a vaccine than you.


Richard Bergstrom, Sweden`s vaccine coordinator, expects Sweden to have up to 18 million vaccine doses available for a national vaccination programme beginning second half of next year.

I presume that you need 2 doses? A week or a month apart or something?

charlie14

Widdensushi wrote: »

I presume that you need 2 doses? A week or a month apart or something?

That I presume will be down to whatever vaccine Sweden uses.

SeaBreezes

Bit cynical wrote: »

Via Dr John Cambpell:

Basically, immunity is conferred by catching a mild form of Covid-19 and is present in individuals that don't show up on antibody tests.

Good news obviously for Sweden but also good news for countries like Ireland because when a vaccine eventually comes, if there's a t-cell response then that is likely to be long lasting and robust.

Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in a large cohort of unexposed individuals as well as exposed family members and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative family members and individuals with a history of asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals.

It is important to remember, however, that herd-immunity is not an official strategy in Sweden, rather sustainable measures to curb the virus is the priority.

I thought though while the T cells do recognise it the jury was still out on immunity cause:

1) like ebola, this virus ages and kills Tcells.
2) The danger of ADE, triggering cytokine.?

Immunologists seem divided/unsure on the matter.
I guess we will see in sweden this winter.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

Nationally new cases have decreased, but like ourselves they appear to have areas where there are still significant spikes.
Skane county, which contains Sweden`s third largest city Malmo, reported 249 new cases. The highest new confirmed and serious cases there since June.
Stockholm, although it is only around half their cases for the same period reported 416 cases this week.

Charlie are you changing your opinion on the Swedish approach or are you still thinking that the cost is too high and/or they under reported the number of deaths?
I would expect an increase in infection numbers after the Swedish summer holidays, so in the next week or two. It will be interesting to see if there is an increase in deaths also.

thereitisgone

Finland closed bars and restaurants and schools, school's returned before summer bars and restaurants June 1st
Still really low cases here about 20 a day nowadays
Finland had people working from home but everything else was normal with really good social distancing during worst time
We had no rea lockdown it dosnt reallly seem to work. Common sense from people social distancing worked here
As of today, 335 dead from corona from a population of 5.5 million
And economy has come out pretty good so far

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finnish_economy_emerged_from_corona_spring_as_eu_winner_most_economists_say_worst_is_over/11507127

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Charlie are you changing your opinion on the Swedish approach or are you still thinking that the cost is too high and/or they under reported the number of deaths?
I would expect an increase in infection numbers after the Swedish summer holidays, so in the next week or two. It will be interesting to see if there is an increase in deaths also.

Why would I change my mind on the cost in lives being too high when the lowest estimate here for Covid-19 deaths in Sweden for July was an average of 70 a week.
There already has been an increase in infections in areas of Sweden.

Skane last week had 249. The highest there in confirmed and serious cases since June.
Stockholm last week 416. Close to half their previous peak.Many of those may be young fit with no underlying conditions, but it does not say much for this immunity theory floating around here with Stockholm being their epicenter.
It would make one wonder if it has anything to do with the recent announcement by Richard Bergstrom of those 18 million vaccines.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

Why would I change my mind on the cost in lives being too high when the lowest estimate here for Covid-19 deaths in Sweden for July was an average of 70 a week.
There already has been an increase in infections in areas of Sweden.

Skane last week had 249. The highest there in confirmed and serious cases since June.
Stockholm last week 416. Close to half their previous peak.Many of those may be young fit with no underlying conditions, but it does not say much for this immunity theory floating around here with Stockholm being their epicenter.
It would make one wonder if it has anything to do with the recent announcement by Richard Bergstrom of those 18 million vaccines.

Your earlier post seemed like you were softening your opinion.
Certainly it seemed like you now accept their posted numbers?

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Your earlier post seemed like you were softening your opinion.
Certainly it seemed like you now accept their posted numbers?

It`s impossible to know what their daily numbers have been for the last 3 months. Even Worldometers have given up on posting them since the beginning of June.
For July alone they posted close to 500 deaths it seems according to one poster, but from another poster the July deaths are 288 with the other 200 being historical from earlier than July.
We do it here. so it cannot be that complicated to announce on any given day what the actual daily deaths are and what deaths are historical.

Why do Sweden not do that ?

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

For July alone they posted close to 500 deaths it seems according to one poster, but from another poster the July deaths are 288 with the other 200 being historical from earlier than July.

Where did you get 500 from? I think I mentioned 429 a while back but that is nowhere near 500. Yes the 429 contains deaths that occurred the previous month but that is true for Ireland's figures too.

Also it has been explained already how you can have two different numbers for a given month since there are two dates associated with a given death: a) the date the death was reported and b) the date on which the death occurred. Since these are not the same date, monthly figures based on these dates will be different.

Most countries use the first date, the date of report. Sweden also provide a dataset based on the second date, the date of death. This is where I think you are getting confused. Both sets are correct but they serve different purposes. The important thing is to use data which is consistent with other countries when doing comparisons.

One of the problems with Worldometers is that they are using this second dataset incorrectly as it is not consistent with the data they are presenting from other countries. But this is a problem with Worldometers not anything Sweden is producing. That is why most don't use that site any more for stats from Sweden, you being the exception.

Spiderman0081

charlie14 wrote: »

Why would I change my mind on the cost in lives being too high when the lowest estimate here for Covid-19 deaths in Sweden for July was an average of 70 a week.
There already has been an increase in infections in areas of Sweden.

Skane last week had 249. The highest there in confirmed and serious cases since June.
Stockholm last week 416. Close to half their previous peak.Many of those may be young fit with no underlying conditions, but it does not say much for this immunity theory floating around here with Stockholm being their epicenter.
It would make one wonder if it has anything to do with the recent announcement by Richard Bergstrom of those 18 million vaccines.

The only people that seem to be floating around the immunity theory are those opposing Sweden’s strategy. I realize it doesn’t matter how many times it’s explained that Sweden’s strategy was about living with the virus as best possible, people still say Sweden’s herd immunity goal is a bust. Herd immunity was only ever going to be a potential byproduct of living with the virus. This won’t be the last time I’m sure this has to be explained.