Sweden avoiding lockdown

normanoffside

thereitisgone wrote: »

Finland closed bars and restaurants and schools, school's returned before summer bars and restaurants June 1st
Still really low cases here about 20 a day nowadays
Finland had people working from home but everything else was normal with really good social distancing during worst time
We had no rea lockdown it dosnt reallly seem to work. Common sense from people social distancing worked here
As of today, 335 dead from corona from a population of 5.5 million
And economy has come out pretty good so far

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finnish_economy_emerged_from_corona_spring_as_eu_winner_most_economists_say_worst_is_over/11507127

Finns were really pleased when the 2 metres social distancing requirements were scrapped as they could go back to their normal 5 metres.

SeaBreezes

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

The only people that seem to be floating around the immunity theory are those opposing Sweden’s strategy. I realize it doesn’t matter how many times it’s explained that Sweden’s strategy was about living with the virus as best possible, people still say Sweden’s herd immunity goal is a bust. Herd immunity was only ever going to be a potential byproduct of living with the virus. This won’t be the last time I’m sure this has to be explained.

Ha ha did you not read Tegells leaked emails? It was ALL about herd immunity.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Where did you get 500 from? I think I mentioned 429 a while back but that is nowhere near 500. Yes the 429 contains deaths that occurred the previous month but that is true for Ireland's figures too.

Also it has been explained already how you can have two different numbers for a given month since there are two dates associated with a given death: a) the date the death was reported and b) the date on which the death occurred. Since these are not the same date, monthly figures based on these dates will be different.

Most countries use the first date, the date of report. Sweden also provide a dataset based on the second date, the date of death. This is where I think you are getting confused. Both sets are correct but they serve different purposes. The important thing is to use data which is consistent with other countries when doing comparisons.

One of the problems with Worldometers is that they are using this second dataset incorrectly as it is not consistent with the data they are presenting from other countries. But this is a problem with Worldometers not anything Sweden is producing. That is why most don't use that site any more for stats from Sweden, you being the exception.

On the close to 500,tbh to lazy to check back to your post.
But then I didn`t reference that 500 as July deaths. Or The Local figure of 392.
I referred too Ozark707`s lower figure of 288.

429, 288, 392 is it not just totally confusing and any wonder that Worldometers have not posted daily deaths for Sweden since beginning of June when they were going back on virtually a daily basis altering the previous day number?

Why do Sweden not simply specify which are deaths for that particular day and which are historical ?
Same a we do in Ireland.
It would save a lot of confusion for everyone.
Not the least, their own media.
Their own The Local has daily deaths for the month of July that total 392 with a disclaimer that basically says they do not know the daily deaths either.

charlie14

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

The only people that seem to be floating around the immunity theory are those opposing Sweden’s strategy. I realize it doesn’t matter how many times it’s explained that Sweden’s strategy was about living with the virus as best possible, people still say Sweden’s herd immunity goal is a bust. Herd immunity was only ever going to be a potential byproduct of living with the virus. This won’t be the last time I’m sure this has to be explained.

Really?
It looks to me from recent posts that it has been those that favour the Swedish strategy who have been attributing a decrease in confirmed cases to herd immunity.


I`m afraid if there was ever any doubt on Sweden`s strategy being herd immunity,for me Annika Linde Swedish state epidemiologist 2005-2013, and Anders Tegnell`s predecessor, put that to bed.
You also may have missed some emails uncovered by journalist Emanuel Karlsten under freedom of information between Tegnell and Johan Giesecke and Tegnell and his Finnish counterpart Mika Salminen on the topic of herd immunity back as far as March.
Seems there have been a number of email inexplicitly deleted by Tegnell during that time as well.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Why do Sweden not simply specify which are deaths for that particular day and which are historical ?


Same a we do in Ireland.

Can you give me an example (link) on the web of these two figures for Ireland for a particular day.

It would save a lot of confusion for everyone.
Not the least, their own media.
Their own The Local has daily deaths for the month of July that total 392 with a disclaimer that basically says they do not know the daily deaths either.

Yes but these are not sources you should be using anyway because they will not always tell you the source they are using or the basis of that source (as I explained in an earlier post there are two different dates associated with a covid death.).

Use either Sweden's official site or something like the ECDC or WHO.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Can you give me an example on the web of these two figures for Ireland for a particular day.

Yes but these are not sources you should be using anyway because they will not always tell you the source they are using or the basis of that source (as I explained in an earlier post there are two different dates associated with a covid death.).

Use either Sweden's official site or something like the ECDC or WHO.

Has Ireland not announced daily figures to the media stating which have been for that day and which were historical.

Why can Sweden not do that and save a lot of confusion for their own media if nobody else.

I imagine when their public health authority is informed of a Covid-19 death, the date of that death is included.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Has Ireland not announced daily figures to the media stating which have been for that day and which were historical.

Sure but it must therefore be on the web. Can you point me to such a page please?

JP Liz V1

What's Sweden's numbers like in total as in cases and deaths?

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

It`s impossible to know what their daily numbers have been for the last 3 months. Even Worldometers have given up on posting them since the beginning of June.
For July alone they posted close to 500 deaths it seems according to one poster, but from another poster the July deaths are 288 with the other 200 being historical from earlier than July.
We do it here. so it cannot be that complicated to announce on any given day what the actual daily deaths are and what deaths are historical.

Why do Sweden not do that ?

They do do that, the source for which has been posted so many times on this thread Charlie.
It's the official page, https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
they post it every day at 2pm the figures for the last day and they retrospectively add the dates from the reports that give figures for other days. Thelocal is a privately run news site, it exists in a few countries I think. You can't exactly blame them for not doing the work for you and it's very quiet as to how much it matters. They're all deaths that have happened, just because they happened a month ago doesn't make them any less important. This was never going to be a situation that was to become clear on a day to day basis.

Bit cynical

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What's Sweden's numbers like in total as in cases and deaths?

https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se
"In Sweden, from Jan 31 to 2:22pm CEST, 24 August 2020, there have been 86,068 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 5,810 deaths"

Roughly the same deaths as Ireland to date when adjusted for the older age profile of Sweden and larger population.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

On the close to 500,tbh to lazy to check back to your post.
But then I didn`t reference that 500 as July deaths. Or The Local figure of 392.
I referred too Ozark707`s lower figure of 288.

429, 288, 392 is it not just totally confusing and any wonder that Worldometers have not posted daily deaths for Sweden since beginning of June when they were going back on virtually a daily basis altering the previous day number?

Why do Sweden not simply specify which are deaths for that particular day and which are historical ?
Same a we do in Ireland.
It would save a lot of confusion for everyone.
Not the least, their own media.
Their own The Local has daily deaths for the month of July that total 392 with a disclaimer that basically says they do not know the daily deaths either.

Previously you were adamant that the Swedes were under reporting deaths based on a simplistic analysis of statista, a z normalized graph and on the analysis of another poster (btl) .

Parking confusion on how they, not the media, present deaths by date of reporting/date of death.

Have you been persuaded that their death rates when adjusted for age and population size are similar to ours?

(Park herd immunity and vaccines also. )

ngunners

Bit cynical wrote: »

https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se
"In Sweden, from Jan 31 to 2:22pm CEST, 24 August 2020, there have been 86,068 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 5,810 deaths"

Roughly the same deaths as Ireland to date when adjusted for the older age profile of Sweden and larger population.

Adjusting for population means Sweden has the 8th highest deaths rate with 575 deaths per million.

Ireland is 18th with 359. How did you adjust for the older population?

nw1dqsv7amx026

ngunners wrote: »

Adjusting for population means Sweden has the 8th highest deaths rate with 575 deaths per million.

Ireland is 18th with 359. How did you adjust for the older population?

Look for his post on July 31st.

Nphet released data on Irish deaths by age for the first time (?) at the end of July.
He cross-referenced this against CSO demographic data, did the same for Sweden and graphed it.
He did the same a few days later except with a log scale.

The results indicate that death rates by age group were similar between Ireland and Sweden.

Well worth your time looking at this.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Sure but it must therefore be on the web. Can you point me to such a page please?

Gov.ie -updates on Covid-19 (Coronavirus) for July and August 2020

tobefrank321

ngunners wrote: »

Adjusting for population means Sweden has the 8th highest deaths rate with 575 deaths per million.

Ireland is 18th with 359. How did you adjust for the older population?

Sweden has about 20% of their population over 65 whereas Ireland has about 13.5% in that category. They have just short of 50% more over 65s than us.

charlie14

the incredible pudding wrote: »

They do do that, the source for which has been posted so many times on this thread Charlie.
It's the official page, https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
they post it every day at 2pm the figures for the last day and they retrospectively add the dates from the reports that give figures for other days. Thelocal is a privately run news site, it exists in a few countries I think. You can't exactly blame them for not doing the work for you and it's very quiet as to how much it matters. They're all deaths that have happened, just because they happened a month ago doesn't make them any less important. This was never going to be a situation that was to become clear on a day to day basis.

Not to disparage your source, but it is about as clear a mud and as difficult to wade through.
I have in no way even suggested that deaths that happened a month ago, or at any stage for that matter, makes them any less important.
My point is that it is virtually impossible to determine on a daily basis which deaths are for that day and which are historical.
Even for posters who have told me, like you, to use this source.
One has said Sweden`s reported deaths for July are 429. Another says he counted 288, and even The Local, who you I believe said they used the same source, list 392 with a caveat that says basically they do not know the actual daily deaths either.

tobefrank321

The confusion around day of death reported and when it happened is not exclusive to Sweden. Every country has that issue.

Thankfully the trends have been down, both here and in Sweden. With some ongoing Swedish type restrictions in Ireland we should be able to keep deaths low and live relatively normal lives.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Previously you were adamant that the Swedes were under reporting deaths based on a simplistic analysis of statista, a z normalized graph and on the analysis of another poster (btl) .

Parking confusion on how they, not the media, present deaths by date of reporting/date of death.

Have you been persuaded that their death rates when adjusted for age and population size are similar to ours?

(Park herd immunity and vaccines also. )

You are doing so much parking in that post you remind me of the old Parnell Square lockhards.


Why the fixation on death rates when adjusted for age and population size comparing Ireland to Sweden ?

Is it supposed to be some sort of proof that lockdown does not work ?
If it is then it falls flat when comparing Sweden to the other three Scandinavian countries, based on the same criteria, that I have already posted. Post #4742

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

Not to disparage your source, but it is about as clear a mud and as difficult to wade through.
I have in no way even suggested that deaths that happened a month ago, or at any stage for that matter, makes them any less important.
My point is that it is virtually impossible to determine on a daily basis which deaths are for that day and which are historical.
Even for posters who have told me, like you, to use this source.
One has said Sweden`s reported deaths for July are 429. Another says he counted 288, and even The Local, who you I believe said they used the same source, list 392 with a caveat that says basically they do not know the actual daily deaths either.

My source is the Swedish Public Health agency that are doing the actual reporting, it's the original source.
It's the Alvinda table, that's the deaths. Look at the most recent day. That's the last reported figure for the day. If you have the computer know how you can make queries to their server containing the information. It's all there, present and available. But why would you bother? What do the actual months total figures really matter that much but for scoring internet points? I don't really care if one person thinks it's 390 and another thinks it's 410. The data is there if you're arsed count or do the query. The graph shows the actual valuable information and how the situation is trending. That and of course the total number as those are real lives and each deserves to be reported whether or not they were last week or 3 months ago.

I don't believe thelocal did a number for any specific month. They just state the number of deaths that were added to the total. You can look at the graph to see how many were this week or last week or whatever week / month you like. The quality of the journalism there isn't the highest, it's not a large or mainstream paper but a mildly useful resource for expats who live in the countries they operate.

JimmyVik

charlie14 wrote: »

You are doing so much parking in that post you remind me of the old Parnell Square lockhards.


Why the fixation on death rates when adjusted for age and population size comparing Ireland to Sweden ?

Is it supposed to be some sort of proof that lockdown does not work ?
If it is then it falls flat when comparing Sweden to the other three Scandinavian countries, based on the same criteria, that I have already posted. Post #4742

Death means different things depending on your age to some people.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

You are doing so much parking in that post you remind me of the old Parnell Square lockhards.

Yeah, I'm trying unsuccessfully to narrow your focus.
You didn't answer which I will take as a concession.

Why the fixation on death rates when adjusted for age and population size comparing Ireland to Sweden ?

Because age seems to be the main factor in your outcome after catching this. We've had this conversation before.

Is it supposed to be some sort of proof that lockdown does not work ?

I always thought that lockdown would suppress it but not be a viable medium term solution.

The data presented here contradicted that in my mind.

If it is then it falls flat when comparing Sweden to the other three Scandinavian countries, based on the same criteria, that I have already posted. Post #4742

Prof Luke O'Neill made the same point to Pat Kenny staying that there are similar variables between Nordic countries. It would have been interesting to tease that further with him as there are differences in those countries.
However he stated that if Swedish deaths continue to stay at current levels and ours increase before a viable therapeutic then they will have been proven correct in their approach (and vice versa).

charlie14

the incredible pudding wrote: »

My source is the Swedish Public Health agency that are doing the actual reporting, it's the original source.
It's the Alvinda table, that's the deaths. Look at the most recent day. That's the last reported figure for the day. If you have the computer know how you can make queries to their server containing the information. It's all there, present and available. But why would you bother? What do the actual months total figures really matter that much but for scoring internet points? I don't really care if one person thinks it's 390 and another thinks it's 410. The data is there if you're arsed count or do the query. The graph shows the actual valuable information and how the situation is trending. That and of course the total number as those are real lives and each deserves to be reported whether or not they were last week or 3 months ago.

I don't believe thelocal did a number for any specific month. They just state the number of deaths that were added to the total. You can look at the graph to see how many were this week or last week or whatever week / month you like. The quality of the journalism there isn't the highest, it's not a large or mainstream paper but a mildly useful resource for expats who live in the countries they operate.

It ha nothing to do with "scoring internet points". I have explained that I was under the impression that for July weekly Covid-19 deaths in Sweden during July were on average around 30 per week.
When I went to check, nobody really seemed to know with figures anything from 429 to 288.
There is really no way of knowing how trends are if you do not at the very least what the 7 day figure is or why Sweden cannot post a simplified version rather than having to plough around through a very confusing source.
In Ireland we are not noted for user friendly government information sites, but at least from Gov.ie-updates on Covid-19 (coronavirus) from July and August it is much clearer which are daily deaths and which are historical.

charlie14

JimmyVik wrote: »

Death means different things depending on your age to some people.

Even on age they seem to mean more comparing Ireland to Sweden than comparing Sweden to the other Scandinavian countries.:)

nw1dqsv7amx026

the incredible pudding wrote: »

My source is the Swedish Public Health agency that are doing the actual reporting, it's the original source.
It's the Alvinda table, that's the deaths. Look at the most recent day. That's the last reported figure for the day. If you have the computer know how you can make queries to their server containing the information. It's all there, present and available. But why would you bother? What do the actual months total figures really matter that much but for scoring internet points? I don't really care if one person thinks it's 390 and another thinks it's 410. The data is there if you're arsed count or do the query. The graph shows the actual valuable information and how the situation is trending. That and of course the total number as those are real lives and each deserves to be reported whether or not they were last week or 3 months ago.

I don't believe thelocal did a number for any specific month. They just state the number of deaths that were added to the total. You can look at the graph to see how many were this week or last week or whatever week / month you like. The quality of the journalism there isn't the highest, it's not a large or mainstream paper but a mildly useful resource for expats who live in the countries they operate.

As you rightly point out, each of these is a real person.

The trending by age group from cases > intensive care > death are interesting as you go down ie it shifts down and left to right?

Are there filters that you can apply to all the visuals. It would be interesting to see how it went for a particular age group by time. I'd suspect younger people were getting infected earlier in the year but possibly not tested.

I wonder if the Irish data is similar. Certainly it seems that mostly young people are getting infected now.

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

It ha nothing to do with "scoring internet points". I have explained that I was under the impression that for July weekly Covid-19 deaths in Sweden during July were on average around 30 per week.
When I went to check, nobody really seemed to know with figures anything from 429 to 288.
There is really no way of knowing how trends are if you do not at the very least what the 7 day figure is or why Sweden cannot post a simplified version rather than having to plough around through a very confusing source.
In Ireland we are not noted for user friendly government information sites, but at least from Gov.ie-updates on Covid-19 (coronavirus) from July and August it is much clearer which are daily deaths and which are historical.

I don't dispute the gov.ie daily updates are good (though to get a monthly figure it looks like you'd have to go through the same rigmarole as tallying up the figures from their dashboards.
I linked to a page with a graph that gives you exactly what you're looking for in terms of seeing what any week / monthly figures, clear graphs showing the exact trends of ICU patient admissions, positive test results and deaths. It takes two seconds to see a snapshot of any date in time. If you're confused by that it's on you.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

It ha nothing to do with "scoring internet points". I have explained that I was under the impression that for July weekly Covid-19 deaths in Sweden during July were on average around 30 per week.
When I went to check, nobody really seemed to know with figures anything from 429 to 288.
There is really no way of knowing how trends are if you do not at the very least what the 7 day figure is or why Sweden cannot post a simplified version rather than having to plough around through a very confusing source.
In Ireland we are not noted for user friendly government information sites, but at least from Gov.ie-updates on Covid-19 (coronavirus) from July and August it is much clearer which are daily deaths and which are historical.

You can do a lot more with the data from Sweden. I'd imagine you could combine it with cso data using any gis package and made very detailed presentations by region/tract.
The Irish government aren't doing that afaik. It will probably be released eventually by the cso. I think they've only given some very basic data by census tract.

charlie14

the incredible pudding wrote: »

I don't dispute the gov.ie daily updates are good (though to get a monthly figure it looks like you'd have to go through the same rigmarole as tallying up the figures from their dashboards.
I linked to a page with a graph that gives you exactly what you're looking for in terms of seeing what any week / monthly figures, clear graphs showing the exact trends of ICU patient admissions, positive test results and deaths. It takes two seconds to see a snapshot of any date in time. If you're confused by that it's on you.

True, you would still need to tally the gov.ie daily updates to get the weekly or monthly figures on actual daily or monthly deaths excluding historical deaths, but it is a lot simpler than the Swedish version.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Yeah, I'm trying unsuccessfully to narrow your focus.
You didn't answer which I will take as a concession.

Because age seems to be the main factor in your outcome after catching this. We've had this conversation before.


I always thought that lockdown would suppress it but not be a viable medium term solution.

The data presented here contradicted that in my mind.


Prof Luke O'Neill made the same point to Pat Kenny staying that there are similar variables between Nordic countries. It would have been interesting to tease that further with him as there are differences in those countries.
However he stated that if Swedish deaths continue to stay at current levels and ours increase before a viable therapeutic then they will have been proven correct in their approach (and vice versa).

No. You are trying to narrow the focus on something I told you weeks ago that I believe I have wasted enough of my time on. Simply put I have better for doing than chasing you down rabbit holes.


Age seems to be for you the main factor when statistically comparing Sweden and Ireland in the death of those over 65 years of age, but not when it come to Sweden and it`s three Scandinavian neighbours.
Rather than it being a conversation we have had, It`s a conversation you appear very determined to avoid.


I do not know what this data is you have in your mind that proves lockdown hasn`t worked.
Per capita Sweden has 64% more deaths due to Covid-19 than Ireland.
Even higher percentages when compared to their neighbours.


It does not look as if we will be able to compare Sweden`s strategy and Ireland`s long term. According to Richard Bergstrom Sweden are covering all the bases on vaccines, purchasing 18 million from various sources and intend to begin inoculation next year.

tobefrank321

Both Sweden and Ireland made mistakes, and by the looks of it very similar mistakes which had nothing to do with their different strategies.

They both failed to adequately protect nursing homes. The main focus was clearing out hospitals in expectation of a huge wave of hospitalisations.

This was dumb from both countries. Even a 5 minute analysis of the Italian experience back in March would tell you it was the elderly who were most at risk and nursing homes were the number 1 area to focus on. Instead both countries tried to empty their hospitals by sending sick patients to nursing homes as a step down and also sadly not offering ICU beds to nursing home patients many of who may have survived.

There were other mistakes made too - eg our refusal to quarantine those coming here from abroad until very late in the epidemic and encouraging people including medical professionals to go to work if they had no symptoms. I'm sure Sweden made similar mistakes.

And yes Sweden's death rate among the elderly is almost exactly the same as our own. But hey, Ireland good, Sweden bad.

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

No. You are trying to narrow the focus on something I told you weeks ago that I believe I have wasted enough of my time on. Simply put I have better for doing than chasing you down rabbit holes.


Age seems to be for you the main factor when statistically comparing Sweden and Ireland in the death of those over 65 years of age, but not when it come to Sweden and it`s three Scandinavian neighbours.
Rather than it being a conversation we have had, It`s a conversation you appear very determined to avoid.


I do not know what this data is you have in your mind that proves lockdown hasn`t worked.
Per capita Sweden has 64% more deaths due to Covid-19 than Ireland.
Even higher percentages when compared to their neighbours.


It does not look as if we will be able to compare Sweden`s strategy and Ireland`s long term. According to Richard Bergstrom Sweden are covering all the bases on vaccines, purchasing 18 million from various sources and intend to begin inoculation next year.

You can only lead a horse to water.