Sweden avoiding lockdown

Bit cynical

What I think we're seeing now is a gradual move in Ireland towards the Swedish philosophy of sustainable long term measures. The virus will be here for a while and we need to learn to live with it. Some predicted this early on in this thread.

RTE: Acting CMO says 'we will have to live' with virus threat

What we're learning is that you can shut down everything and indeed reduce cases and therefore deaths, but then what? Short term attempts at eradication, though politically attractive, are ultimately unrealistic.

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

What I think we're seeing now is a gradual move in Ireland towards the Swedish philosophy of sustainable long term measures. The virus will be here for a while and we need to learn to live with it. Some predicted this early on in this thread.

RTE: Acting CMO says 'we will have to live' with virus threat

What we're learning is that you can shut down everything and indeed reduce cases and therefore deaths, but then what? Short term attempts at eradication, though politically attractive, are ultimately unrealistic.

I believe the plan was always to do this, reduce deaths and infections to sustainable levels and then revert to a form of normality while practicing social distancing and hand hygiene, I don't think they made a secret that this was their preferred approach, localised lockdowns when infections threaten to get out of control for future outbreaks.

lee_baby_simms

greyday wrote: »

I believe the plan was always to do this, reduce deaths and infections to sustainable levels and then revert to a form of normality while practicing social distancing and hand hygiene, I don't think they made a secret that this was their preferred approach, localised lockdowns when infections threaten to get out of control for future outbreaks.

I believe the original plan was to lockdown to prevent icu beds being overburdened then slowly open up.

At some point the goalposts grew castors and it changed. Its become a pointless game of whacamole with hugely damaging and punitive lockdowns that driven small business even further into the ground, a gross overreaction to pockets of mainly asymptomatic cases.

cnocbui

The flattening of the curve got lost in translation and became complete elimination of the curve, which also means complete elimination of many small businesses and the travel/tourism industry - which was the the largest single employment category globally and driver of 10% of global GDP.

Bit cynical

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

I believe the original plan was to lockdown to prevent icu beds being overburdened then slowly open up.

At some point the goalposts grew castors and it changed. Its become a pointless game of whacamole with hugely damaging and punitive lockdowns that driven small business even further into the ground, a gross overreaction to pockets of mainly asymptomatic cases.

Yes, the original "flattening the curve" strategy where the object was not to eradicate the virus (which of course was never possible) but to stop hospitals being overrun.

It got switched to an eradication policy at some point. I think the reason for this is that it is comparatively simple to keep case numbers down. Just maintain the lockdown and numbers will fall. The problem is, of course, once they are down they don't stay down without continuing restrictions. Moreover, it becomes a political target that pulls the focus away from wider issues. The country is paralysed, afraid to do anything for fear cases will rise again. This is unsustainable.

The politically easy thing, lockdown, is unsustainable. The sustainable thing (expanding ICU capacity and managing cases) is politically difficult. Sweden had to go through a tough period where they were being criticised bot internally and externally until they proved themselves.

The problem is that while people at the top in Ireland may now realise what they are doing is unsustainable and counter-productive, they may not know how to perform the u-turn necessary to put things right, and the whole thing may come to a chaotic end.

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

I believe the plan was always to do this, reduce deaths and infections to sustainable levels and then revert to a form of normality while practicing social distancing and hand hygiene, I don't think they made a secret that this was their preferred approach, localised lockdowns when infections threaten to get out of control for future outbreaks.

The problem with this is that a given level of restriction does not translate to a particular level of infections or deaths. Restrictions instead affect the rate at which daily cases rise or fall.

Once a given level of restrictions is sufficient to cause daily new cases to fall over time, then it is just a matter of continuing the same level and cases will continue to fall to negligible levels.

However once restrictions are lifted a bit, cases start to rise again and keep rising. This is what is happening now in Ireland. There's no permanence in low levels brought about by restrictions and at the same time the restrictions that are needed to keep numbers from rising are not sustainable.

nw1dqsv7amx026

Bit cynical wrote: »

The politically easy thing, lockdown, is unsustainable. The sustainable thing (expanding ICU capacity and managing cases) is politically difficult. Sweden had to go through a tough period where they were being criticised bot internally and externally until they proved themselves.

The problem is that while people at the top in Ireland may now realise what they are doing is unsustainable and counter-productive, they may not know how to perform the u-turn necessary to put things right, and the whole thing may come to a chaotic end.

Johan Giesecke made this exact point in a number of interviews early on. Politicians like to look strong by taking decisive action i. e. lock down. But he asked how you can then get out of lock down.
In this country it will probably be in the form of a cross party committee which recommends easing of restrictions.

gmisk

I don't know if anyone has posted this but seems like Sweden have made huge mistakes when it comes to false positive testing

https://www.thelocal.se/20200825/sweden-raises-alarm-after-3700-people-test-false-positive-for-coronavirus/amp

cnocbui

gmisk wrote: »

I don't know if anyone has posted this but seems like Sweden have made huge mistakes when it comes to false positive testing

https://www.thelocal.se/20200825/sweden-raises-alarm-after-3700-people-test-false-positive-for-coronavirus/amp

Looks more like Sweden are yet another victim of Chinese poor quality, and it's not 'Sweden' that has made a mistake. Discovering a manufacturer has misrepresented a product is not making a mistake.

The Swedish labs are to be commended for the due diligence QC that discovered the potential problem.

Great spin by misrepresenting what the article is about.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

You can only lead a horse to water.

Especially when that horse only wants to stay ploughing old ground that has been ploughed to death, and is determined to avoid any other sources of water bar one.

charlie14

greyday wrote: »

I believe the plan was always to do this, reduce deaths and infections to sustainable levels and then revert to a form of normality while practicing social distancing and hand hygiene, I don't think they made a secret that this was their preferred approach, localised lockdowns when infections threaten to get out of control for future outbreaks.

Other than the first priority being to prevent our health service being being over-run, that would be how I see it as well.
Some appear to believe that the aim of lockdown was to eradicate the virus.
On just one area alone, anybody that believes that has very little understanding of the geography or history of a 500km open border between ourselves and our neighbouring jurisdiction of Northern Ireland imo.

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Johan Giesecke made this exact point in a number of interviews early on. Politicians like to look strong by taking decisive action i. e. lock down. But he asked how you can then get out of lock down.
In this country it will probably be in the form of a cross party committee which recommends easing of restrictions.

On Johan Giesecke`s recent history of crystal ball readings for his own country, I would not have much faith in him where other are concerned.

gmisk

cnocbui wrote: »

Looks more like Sweden are yet another victim of Chinese poor quality, and it's not 'Sweden' that has made a mistake. Discovering a manufacturer has misrepresented a product is not making a mistake.

The Swedish labs are to be commended for the due diligence QC that discovered the potential problem.

Great spin by misrepresenting what the article is about.

I am pretty sure in early April around 90 people were given the wrong results in Ireland and people lost their minds calling it a scandal etc.

Here we have Sweden giving 3,700 wrong results over space of 5 months! and there's barely a shrug....that was more my point.
I linked to the article it is just my take on it not "spin".

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

On Johan Giesecke`s recent history of crystal ball readings for his own country, I would not have much faith in him where other are concerned.

You still upset because I called you out on spoofing about z score normalisation and the rest?

You have no faith in him, but the WHO seem to?
Members of the Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/strategic-and-technical-advisory-group-for-infectious-hazards/members/biographies/en/index2.html

charlie14

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

You still upset because I called you out on spoofing about z score normalisation and the rest?

You have no faith in him, but the WHO seem to?
Members of the Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/strategic-and-technical-advisory-group-for-infectious-hazards/members/biographies/en/index2.html

Upset.:D
No I just became bored with someone who just runs around in circles attempting to avoid anything that else that is at variance with their belief.

Giesecke`s involvement with the WHO is a bit historical at this stage don`t you think ?
Even the photograph in that link looks dated.

I was referring to his crystal ball reading as revealed by recently discovered emails in relation to the epidemic in Sweden.

Interesting that he now teaches at the Karolinska Institute.
Do you believe he will comply with that institutes recommendations for staff and students on the wearing of face mask ?

nw1dqsv7amx026

charlie14 wrote: »

Upset.:D
No I just became bored with someone who just runs around in circles attempting to avoid anything that else that is at variance with their belief.

Giesecke`s involvement with the WHO is a bit historical at this stage don`t you think ?
Even the photograph in that link looks dated.

I was referring to his crystal ball reading as revealed by recently discovered emails in relation to the epidemic in Sweden.

Interesting that he now teaches at the Karolinska Institute.
Do you believe he will comply with that institutes recommendations for staff and students on the wearing of face mask ?

Have to say I didn't think you would beat your description of a percentage as a mathematical model or was it mathematical theory but this comes close.

So, you think this fortune teller "now teaches at the Karolinska Institute" and you wonder if a staff member (no, Professor Emeritus) there wears a face mask?

I'm sure his colleagues who are on the Nobel Prize Committee for Medicine would lend him one.

You are right about one thing, this is getting tiresome.

i_surge

charlie14 wrote: »

Upset.:D
No I just became bored with someone who just runs around in circles attempting to avoid anything that else that is at variance with their belief.

Giesecke`s involvement with the WHO is a bit historical at this stage don`t you think ?
Even the photograph in that link looks dated.

I was referring to his crystal ball reading as revealed by recently discovered emails in relation to the epidemic in Sweden.

Interesting that he now teaches at the Karolinska Institute.
Do you believe he will comply with that institutes recommendations for staff and students on the wearing of face mask ?

His belief that all countries will wind up the same looks impossible now. Full of ****, arrogant curmudgeon would be my best assessment.

nw1dqsv7amx026

i_surge wrote: »

His belief that all countries will wind up the same looks impossible now. Full of ****, arrogant curmudgeon would be my best assessment.

Well maybe not at country level but several regions are seeing big drops in numbers which could indicate herd immunity.
News reports (I know, not a great source) regarding Manaus infections dropping rapidly although they had paid a huge price already.
Rough calculations if those deaths were replicated in Ireland would mean 10K here. Although living conditions would be significantly different between Brasil and Ireland.

And re. Sweden, I do think they are hoping for herd immunity. It would be foolish not to hope for that.

i_surge

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Well maybe not at country level but several regions are seeing big drops in numbers which could indicate herd immunity.
News reports (I know, not a great source) regarding Manaus infections dropping rapidly although they had paid a huge price already.
Rough calculations if those deaths were replicated in Ireland would mean 10K here. Although living conditions would be significantly different between Brasil and Ireland.

And re. Sweden, I do think they are hoping for herd immunity. It would be foolish not to hope for that.

Thanks

His contention was that even with lockdown all countries will wind up about the same and that you are only screwing your economy needlessly, "you will see" with an arrogant smugness.

Impossible at this stage imo looking at Iceland compared to Brasil for example.

TonyMaloney

There's been another 4 covid reinfections found. This time in the Netherlands.

https://www.businessinsider.com/four-coronavirus-reinfection-cases-reported-in-the-netherlands-2020-8

Bit cynical

TonyMaloney wrote: »

There's been another 4 covid reinfections found. This time in the Netherlands.

https://www.businessinsider.com/four-coronavirus-reinfection-cases-reported-in-the-netherlands-2020-8

Good news for hopes of a vaccine if comparatively small numbers are getting reinfected.

nw1dqsv7amx026

Bit cynical wrote: »

Good news for hopes of a vaccine if comparatively small numbers are getting reinfected.

Professor Hendrik Streeck in an interview I watched a few months ago speculated that
partial immunity would result from infection by any of the corona viruses. Seems these reinfections are asymptomatic.

The big question is are the patients contagious.

The link if anybody is interested, it's long.

https://youtu.be/vrL9QKGQrWk

nw1dqsv7amx026

i_surge wrote: »

Thanks

His contention was that even with lockdown all countries will wind up about the same and that you are only screwing your economy needlessly, "you will see" with an arrogant smugness.

I know he comes across as arrogant or cold/dispasionate but I think that's just the Swedish way.
I also saw him nearly sneer at a question.

Impossible at this stage imo looking at Iceland compared to Brasil for example.

This is the million dollar question!

Spiderman0081

Finland has spent a few million euros testing kids in school for coranavirus up to the age of 10. The goal was to see if there is any evidence that kids that have returned to school are spreaders of the virus and if so, are masks necessary for children. 11,000 children were tested after returning to school. 5 children tested positive, 0.045%.

bb1234567

Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: »

Well maybe not at country level but several regions are seeing big drops in numbers which could indicate herd immunity.
News reports (I know, not a great source) regarding Manaus infections dropping rapidly although they had paid a huge price already.
Rough calculations if those deaths were replicated in Ireland would mean 10K here. Although living conditions would be significantly different between Brasil and Ireland.

And re. Sweden, I do think they are hoping for herd immunity. It would be foolish not to hope for that.

That is good to hear about Manaus. It is crazy how many people died there, 120 excess deaths per day mid peak in a city of just 1.8 million

tobefrank321

bb1234567 wrote: »

That is good to hear about Manaus. It is crazy how many people died there, 120 excess deaths per day mid peak in a city of just 1.8 million. Many countries have not even had 100 covid deaths per million in total yet and Manuas was reporting more than that every 48 hours. It's be like roughly 330 excess deaths daily here in Ireland in April instead of the 40 or so excess daily deaths we had at our peak.

Manaus had no social distancing I believe.

If they had even followed the Swedish model of some social distancing they'd be in a better position.

The problem with countries like Brazil is the day to day existence and inability to work from home. And also very dense multi generational households, poor/zero sanitation. Brazil seems an ideal country for covid 19 - not westernised for people to work from home, but developed enough that there are public transport and densely populated in areas with some elderly.

Africa will probably do better than Brazil because of a younger population and less population density.

mcsean2163

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Manaus had no social distancing I believe.

If they had even followed the Swedish model of some social distancing they'd be in a better position.

The problem with countries like Brazil is the day to day existence and inability to work from home. And also very dense multi generational households, poor/zero sanitation. Brazil seems an ideal country for covid 19 - not westernised for people to work from home, but developed enough that there are public transport and densely populated in areas with some elderly.

Africa will probably do better than Brazil because of a younger population and less population density.

Yes Africa should be fine.

The city of Lagos covers an immense area, coming in with a total of 1,171.28 square kilometers (452.23 square miles). With the population continuing to grow, and currently exceeding at least 17 million residents, the population density is around 6,871 residents per square kilometer (17,800 per square mile).

I wonder how the BCG trials are going.... Or could there be another complicating factor?

bb1234567

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Manaus had no social distancing I believe.

If they had even followed the Swedish model of some social distancing they'd be in a better position.

The problem with countries like Brazil is the day to day existence and inability to work from home. And also very dense multi generational households, poor/zero sanitation. Brazil seems an ideal country for covid 19 - not westernised for people to work from home, but developed enough that there are public transport and densely populated in areas with some elderly.

Africa will probably do better than Brazil because of a younger population and less population density.

In addition to that, it also has a much more significant elderly population than most developing countries.
Almost 10% of Brazilians are over 65, not a huge proportion, but in a country ike Brazil where it;s spreading rapidly to all corners, that's over 21 million who are at risk. Also has a surprisingly high obesity rate of 35%...much higher than most Europe, along with not-insignificant levels of malnutrition simultaneously, with 7% of Brazilian children facing stunted growth due to inadequate nutrition.

Probably Brazil, and most of Latin America really, are the perfect storm of conditions for COVID to be pretty devastating.

nw1dqsv7amx026

bb1234567 wrote: »

In addition to that, it also has a much more significant elderly population than most developing countries.
Almost 10% of Brazilians are over 65, not a huge proportion, but in a country ike Brazil where it;s spreading rapidly to all corners, that's over 21 million who are at risk. Also has a surprisingly high obesity rate of 35%...much higher than most Europe, along with not-insignificant levels of malnutrition simultaneously, with 7% of Brazilian children facing stunted growth due to inadequate nutrition.

Probably Brazil, and most of Latin America really, are the perfect storm of conditions for COVID to be pretty devastating.

The article on Manaus:-
I've no knowledge of the paper but it seems like decent enough journalism.

'In the Brazilian Amazon, a sharp drop in coronavirus sparks questions over collective immunity'

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazil-coronavirus-manaus-herd-immunity/2020/08/23/0eccda40-d80e-11ea-930e-d88518c57dcc_story.html

SeaBreezes

https://twitter.com/ProfessorsBlogg/status/1299064185557602305?s=19