Sweden avoiding lockdown

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

It does not look as if it will even come to the health authorities being in a position to release a vaccine before the election.
Moderna have slowed their phase 3 tests due to their volunteer base not being representative, and Pfizer from their CEO`s statement have no intention of rushing their vaccine for authorisation.

Astra Zeneca have halted their vaccine trial due to a severe reaction in a test subject. Sweden took the right approach. The lockdowners are aiming for economic suicide and creating something worse than the Great Depression if they don't halt their unsustainable madness.

TRANQUILLO

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Nah, lots of mess ups with the approach and it's too early to tell. Not as bad as some doomsayers here were stating but plenty of mistakes made. Things are looking much, much better here right now thankfully but it's still early days.


As an aside that site makes me totally nauseous with all the anti-vaccine nonsense and climate change denial bile, that's even discounting that the article is full of false information and false assumptions.

It will be the first place go on my holidays. I loved scandinavia before this but looks like the most normal place to visit at the moment now also.

Back to fotografiska and gamla stan for a cold bevvie. Cant wait.

TRANQUILLO

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Nah, lots of mess ups with the approach and it's too early to tell. Not as bad as some doomsayers here were stating but plenty of mistakes made.

So same as everywhere else then?

greyday

cnocbui wrote: »

Astra Zeneca have halted their vaccine trial due to a severe reaction in a test subject. Sweden took the right approach. The lockdowners are aiming for economic suicide and creating something worse than the Great Depression if they don't halt their unsustainable madness.

An unexplained reaction which is always investigated during clinical trials.

the incredible pudding

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Back to fotografiska

I thought it was closed as it closed due to Covid in March but delighted to see that it's open again since May - I know what I'm doing this weekend!

TRANQUILLO wrote:

So same as everywhere else then?

Well I'd argue it's quite different given the nature of going in a completely different direction as everywhere else but yeah most countries made some mistakes. As mentioned here, the other Nordic nations did a fantastic job of closing fast and early and opening up again pretty quickly though as mentioned, it's still far from over.

I would have preferred if they'd even had imposed stricter and more specific guidelines from early March rather than humming and hawing for a month.
A lot of the advice was very vague and there was a lot of confused discussions on my work's communication channels over what we were actually meant to be doing. It did improve but took some time.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Astra Zeneca have halted their vaccine trial due to a severe reaction in a test subject. Sweden took the right approach. The lockdowners are aiming for economic suicide and creating something worse than the Great Depression if they don't halt their unsustainable madness.

From reports it appears that one of the thousand of test volunteers has a medical problem. It is not yet clear if that problem is due to the vaccine or not and the trial is on hold until the cause is determined.
Seems a sensible precaution to me and counters this idle speculation by some that these trials were being rushed through without the normal safety checks.

There were quite a few around here telling us from the outset that on a like for like basis compared to Sweden by using lockdown we were committing economic suicide.
Even a few weeks ago some here, based on a Bloomberg article, were predicting a Swedish GDP contraction of 7% for Q2 with Ireland`s being as high as 12%.
Sweden`s GDP contraction for Q2 was 8.6%. Ireland`s was 6.1%.
On those figures on that like for like basis, Sweden has not gained anything economically by avoiding lockdown.

tobefrank321

The Swedes were predicting 3000 more deaths by Christmas a month ago, in I think a best case scenario.

On current trends, they are unlikely to have 500 more deaths by Christmas.

Their approach hasn't been a total success but not a total failure either. Somewhere in the middle. And yes it all depends when the vaccine is rolled out. If it isn't rolled out before 2022, then they will have been somewhat vindicated.

I think Norway currently has a higher rate of infection.

Nermal

charlie14 wrote: »

There were quite a few around here telling us from the outset that on a like for like basis compared to Sweden by using lockdown we were committing economic suicide.
Even a few weeks ago some here, based on a Bloomberg article, were predicting a Swedish GDP contraction of 7% for Q2 with Ireland`s being as high as 12%.
Sweden`s GDP contraction for Q2 was 8.6%. Ireland`s was 6.1%.
On those figures on that like for like basis, Sweden has not gained anything economically by avoiding lockdown.

1) Assuming you're not a shut-in like half the people on this forum, avoiding lockdown is a good outcome in and of itself.

2) We don't live in autarkies. If the policies that avoided lockdown were applied globally, all countries would have seen smaller falls in GDP.

3) To limit our GDP fall to 6% we're going to end up spending around €30BN this year, paying 10% of the available for work population to do nothing, ballooning our deficit and gross government debt. Sweden ran a surplus in August! They'll have half our deficit in percentage terms for 2020. They just had their AAA rating re-affirmed - five steps ahead of us.

4) Stop posting.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

From reports it appears that one of the thousand of test volunteers has a medical problem. It is not yet clear if that problem is due to the vaccine or not and the trial is on hold until the cause is determined.
Seems a sensible precaution to me and counters this idle speculation by some that these trials were being rushed through without the normal safety checks.

There were quite a few around here telling us from the outset that on a like for like basis compared to Sweden by using lockdown we were committing economic suicide.
Even a few weeks ago some here, based on a Bloomberg article, were predicting a Swedish GDP contraction of 7% for Q2 with Ireland`s being as high as 12%.
Sweden`s GDP contraction for Q2 was 8.6%. Ireland`s was 6.1%.
On those figures on that like for like basis, Sweden has not gained anything economically by avoiding lockdown.

On the otherhand, Ireland reported a Q2 budget deficit of close to €10 billion, while Sweden reported a surplus of about €2 billion just for the month of August.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/09/07/2089426/0/en/Surplus-for-Swedish-central-government-in-August-2020.html

Surplus for Swedish central government in August 2020
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September 07, 2020 03:30 ET | Source: Riksgälden
multilang-release
Surplus for Swedish central government in August 2020

Swedish central government payments resulted in a surplus of SEK 19.8 billion in August. The Debt Office's forecast was a deficit of SEK 26.7 billion. The difference is due to, among other things, tax income being higher than calculated and the fact that the turn over loss support to companies has not been used as expected.

The primary balance was SEK 45.2 billion higher than forecasted. Tax income were approximately SEK 12 billion higher than estimated. There is not yet any information on what taxes it´s about. The Debt Office had calculated that the payments for the turn over loss support to companies would amount to SEK 13 billion in August. The outcome was significantly lower, just under SEK 1 billion. Payments for short-term work allowance were SEK 5 billion lower than calculated and payments of local government grants SEK 5 billion lower than estimated. However, the extra grants to local governments were paid out already in July, which means that it is a redistribution between months.

The Debt Office’s net lending to government agencies etc. were SEK 0.8 billion lower than calculated.

Interest payments on central government debt were SEK 0.5 billion lower than forecasted.

The net borrowing requirement and chiefly the primary balance has developed in a significantly better way than the Debt Office expected as recently as May. The explanation is that economic development has been better than expected, which means that tax income have been higher and that some of the support measures introduced in the spring has not been used in the expected extent. New forecasts for 2020 and 2021, as well as a first forecast for 2022 will be published on October 21, at 09.30 a.m.

For the twelve-month period up to the end of August 2020, central government payments resulted in a deficit of SEK 131.0 billion.

Central government debt amounted to SEK 1,181 billion at the end of August.

Feels like the Swedish economy has turned a corner, whereas Ireland's is still very uncertain, particularly if there's lockdowns in places like Dublin.

TRANQUILLO

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The Swedes were predicting 3000 more deaths by Christmas a month ago, in I think a best case scenario.

On current trends, they are unlikely to have 500 more deaths by Christmas.

Their approach hasn't been a total success but not a total failure either. Somewhere in the middle. And yes it all depends when the vaccine is rolled out. If it isn't rolled out before 2022, then they will have been somewhat vindicated.

I think Norway currently has a higher rate of infection.

Sweden (Tegnell) reckon long term we will all end up with similar numbers.

NZ for instance look like best in class but there is a contention they have just delayed the inevitable.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

On the otherhand, Ireland reported a Q2 budget deficit of close to €10 billion, while Sweden reported a surplus of about €2 billion just for the month of August.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/09/07/2089426/0/en/Surplus-for-Swedish-central-government-in-August-2020.html



Feels like the Swedish economy has turned a corner, whereas Ireland's is still very uncertain, particularly if there's lockdowns in places like Dublin.

A surplus has little or nothing to do with GDP, and much of that surplus, from what I have seen, is down too Swedish business`s not availing of state subsidies. Whether that was due to them either not needing them, or they were too difficult to avail off, nobody seems quite sure.


Our own economy does not appear relatively to be doing that badly.

Our GDP has out performed Sweden by around 40% for Q2, despite all the doom and gloom predictions on here due to lockdown.

Our income tax returns are down by just 2%, and despite all the naysayer predictions the Minister for Finance has stated he has no intention of increasing income tax in budget 2021.

charlie14

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Sweden (Tegnell) reckon long term we will all end up with similar numbers.

NZ for instance look like best in class but there is a contention they have just delayed the inevitable.

I would not have a lot of faith in Tegnell`s predictions on numbers.
The antibody tests results showed just how far off the mark his numbers were.

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

From reports it appears that one of the thousand of test volunteers has a medical problem. It is not yet clear if that problem is due to the vaccine or not and the trial is on hold until the cause is determined.
Seems a sensible precaution to me and counters this idle speculation by some that these trials were being rushed through without the normal safety checks.

There were quite a few around here telling us from the outset that on a like for like basis compared to Sweden by using lockdown we were committing economic suicide.
Even a few weeks ago some here, based on a Bloomberg article, were predicting a Swedish GDP contraction of 7% for Q2 with Ireland`s being as high as 12%.
Sweden`s GDP contraction for Q2 was 8.6%. Ireland`s was 6.1%.
On those figures on that like for like basis, Sweden has not gained anything economically by avoiding lockdown.

Ireland's GDP figures are an economic fantasy with regards the 'native' economy as its a figure massively distorted by US multinationals, like pharmaceuticals, tech and Apple consumer products, all of which have done very well recently. That financial activity has little benefit for Ireland as it is barely taxed and most of it ends up in US banks in short order.

Wikipedia even have an entry about it under the heading 'Leprechaun economics'.

Economy in recession over impact of Covid-19 restrictions

But sectors focused on the domestic market experienced significantly lower levels of economic activity in the quarter, with construction contracting by 38.3% and the distribution, transport, hotels and restaurants sector contracting by 30.3%.

Activity in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sectors slumped by 60.6% while the Arts and Entertainment sector saw activity sinking 65.5%.

Personal consumption of goods and services, a key measure of domestic economic activity, also decreased by 19.6% in the three month period.

The CSO also said that modified domestic demand, a measure that strips out some of the ways large multinational firms can distort GDP here, decreased by 16.4% in the second quarter.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0907/1163668-cso-second-quarter-gdp-figures/

bb1234567

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The Swedes were predicting 3000 more deaths by Christmas a month ago, in I think a best case scenario.

On current trends, they are unlikely to have 500 more deaths by Christmas.

Their approach hasn't been a total success but not a total failure either. Somewhere in the middle. And yes it all depends when the vaccine is rolled out. If it isn't rolled out before 2022, then they will have been somewhat vindicated.

I think Norway currently has a higher rate of infection.

It is dependent on whether there are subsequent waves or not. I don't see how Stockholm and certainly not Sweden as a while could have achieved herd immunity with so few deaths, Madrid which reported about 3x times more excess deaths per capita than the Stockholm region is now seeing a steep rise in infections and hospitalisations. It would strongly imply the reason for the drop in infections in Stockholm is not because of herd immunity

the incredible pudding

I don't really think you can compare Madrid with Stockholm.
One had a sharp rise, then locked down, quickly flattened, reopened and is now experiencing another sharp rise.
The other had a sharp rise, then very slowly and gradually dropped and has continued to decrease slowly for a long while now whilst changing very little in terms of the behaviour. It might change, it might now. That's even discounting the vast cultural differences.

It's hard to say what the cause for the drop of infections here would be if not a higher rate of immunity / greater immune response amongst those mostly traversing the public. Some say T-Cells might play a part, I don't know, your guess is as good as mine. People here seem a little more lax with social distancing than before if anything though for the most part I've found most people do a good job of it as it's kind of just become the norm.

Bit cynical

It is worth pointing out that we don't currently know how many people were infected in any country. Deaths are not a good proxy as there can be wide variations in underlying health (obesity rates etc.) as well as hospital capability. Confirmed case figures are very dependent on testing and Sweden had a low level of testing during the peak. Antibody tests are now seen as inadequate as they don't take into account t-cell immunity and protection.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Difficult to know what the primary aim was.
It appears to vacillate on any given day from protecting the vulnerable, ensuring their health services were not overrun, protecting their economy, too living with the virus depending on who is making the claim.

However, these can all be seen as facets of an overall primary aim of sustainable measures to manage the virus over a potentially extended period of time. In order to do this things like the economy have to be protected, schools need to remain open and so on though when you break it down it can seem like separate aims.

tobefrank321

Its unlikely herd immunity has anything to do with Swedens new infections decline although having 12% immunity in your capital city is a better position to be in than 3%.

The more likely reason is the limited restrictions and voluntary compliance of the population means the measures are sustainable longterm and there is no fatigue or rebellion against measures.

When the pubs reopen in Ireland you will see an example of what people do when they get tired of forced restrictions and react against it.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

Ireland's GDP figures are an economic fantasy with regards the 'native' economy as its a figure massively distorted by US multinationals, like pharmaceuticals, tech and Apple consumer products, all of which have done very well recently. That financial activity has little benefit for Ireland as it is barely taxed and most of it ends up in US banks in short order.

Wikipedia even have an entry about it under the heading 'Leprechaun economics'.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0907/1163668-cso-second-quarter-gdp-figures/

Are you not perhaps attempting to change horses in midstream regarding GDP ?
There is no international uniformity as to how states tax foreign multinationals, or how their figures are used in calculating GDP.
At a guess I would imagine the Nordic countries probably come as close as you will find, but here again your economic suicide theory on lockdown does not add up.
The other three Nordic countries that used lockdown all had better Q2 results than Sweden.

I found the Wikipedia mention of forestry interesting/amusing/irritating.
Our main problem with the drop in GDP from forestry appears to be more to do with seven individuals lodging complaints that has halted practically all tree felling than Covid-19.
Ironically due of those complaints we are helping the GDP of Nordic countries. We are now importing timber from them that would normally be sourced from our own forests.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

However, these can all be seen as facets of an overall primary aim of sustainable measures to manage the virus over a potentially extended period of time. In order to do this things like the economy have to be protected, schools need to remain open and so on though when you break it down it can seem like separate aims.

By omitting the last sentence of my post to another poster, your reply contextually misses the point I was making, and which the other poster had acknowledged, (although admittedly at a level lower than I personally believe), that among those aims was herd immunity.
Not as a happy coincidence that some in authority in Sweden or posting here would like us to believe.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Its unlikely herd immunity has anything to do with Swedens new infections decline although having 12% immunity in your capital city is a better position to be in than 3%.

The more likely reason is the limited restrictions and voluntary compliance of the population means the measures are sustainable longterm and there is no fatigue or rebellion against measures.

When the pubs reopen in Ireland you will see an example of what people do when they get tired of forced restrictions and react against it.

I agree, but as too what practical use 12% immunity would have I have my doubts.
I would hope that when the pubs open people behave in a manner to ensure there is no threat of them having to close again or resulting in localised lockdowns.

biko

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Sweden (Tegnell) reckon long term we will all end up with similar numbers.

Tegnell is just guessing and hoping to be right in 2/3 years, but there is no precedence nor any evidence to support him.
It's gamble he and the Swedish government desperately hope pays of (and I do too).

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

By omitting the last sentence of my post to another poster, your reply contextually misses the point I was making

I don't think it does miss the point. Yes, I missed out protecting the vulnerable but this too can be seen as a facet of the broader primary aim though it is true that they had, like Ireland, failures in this regard.

The problem with herd immunity as a goal is that it can only be proven to have been reached when society is fully back to normal and that is not quite the case yet in Sweden even though immunity is probably playing a part in keeping infections down. For this reason it has to be kept separate from the primary goal of sustainable measures.

eddie73

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think it does miss the point. Yes, I missed out protecting the vulnerable but this too can be seen as a facet of the broader primary aim though it is true that they had, like Ireland, failures in this regard.

The problem with herd immunity as a goal is that it can only be proven to have been reached when society is fully back to normal and that is not quite the case yet in Sweden even though immunity is probably playing a part in keeping infections down. For this reason it has to be kept separate from the primary goal of sustainable measures.

Society will never be fully back to normal even without a pandemic-anywhere. But let's assume by fully back to normal you mean 'the way things were' before the pandemic.

By getting back to the stage of 'the way things were' before the pandemic, you are relying on the rest of the world to be in a similar situation as yourself to continue where you left off on the global economy. This will not be the case.

For this reason, through no fault of their own, Sweden are completely at the mercy of how other countries manage Coronavirus. They are going to be judged negatively despite their unique achievements.

is_that_so

eddie73 wrote: »

Society will never be fully back to normal even without a pandemic-anywhere. But let's assume by fully back to normal you mean 'the way things were' before the pandemic.

By getting back to the stage of 'the way things were' before the pandemic, you are relying on the rest of the world to be in a similar situation as yourself to continue where you left off on the global economy. This will not be the case.

For this reason, through no fault of their own, Sweden are completely at the mercy of how other countries manage Coronavirus. They are going to be judged negatively despite their unique achievements.

When this has passed or we are faced with another one, the narrative will be this is what most countries did and this is what Sweden did. It's just not a convincing enough approach for others to embrace.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think it does miss the point. Yes, I missed out protecting the vulnerable but this too can be seen as a facet of the broader primary aim though it is true that they had, like Ireland, failures in this regard.

The problem with herd immunity as a goal is that it can only be proven to have been reached when society is fully back to normal and that is not quite the case yet in Sweden even though immunity is probably playing a part in keeping infections down. For this reason it has to be kept separate from the primary goal of sustainable measures.

Then I am afraid that is where you and I differ.
As far as I`m concerned the primary aim of the Swedish strategy was herd immunity.
From the outset practically every interview given by Anders Tegnell and Johan Giesecke included predictions on antibody levels Even the Swedish ambassador to the US was at it.
When the antibody test results showed how inaccurate those predictions were, Tegnell`s precursor as state epidemiologist Annika Linde let the cat out of the bag as to what the primary was.
The recently published emails from back in March, uncovered under freedom of information, between Tegnell and Giesecke and Tegnell and his Finnish counterpart Mika Salminen, would certainly not dissuade me from that belief.

Bit cynical

is_that_so wrote: »

When this has passed or we are faced with another one, the narrative will be this is what most countries did and this is what Sweden did. It's just not a convincing enough approach for others to embrace.

I agree. If Sweden succeed it will be in the pages of academic journals where lives lost in Sweden as a direct result of the virus are weighed up against lives lost due to extended lockdowns in other countries.

The average punter in Ireland will still regard Ireland's policy as correct even if more lives are ultimately lost in Ireland. That is the easiest thing to do even if it is not the most accurate.

mcsean2163

https://www.ft.com/content/5cc92d45-fbdb-43b7-9c66-26501693a371

Free to read ft article in Tegnell.

Widdensushi

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/5cc92d45-fbdb-43b7-9c66-26501693a371

Free to read ft article in Tegnell.

Thank you, very interesting

ElTel

charlie14 wrote: »

Then I am afraid that is where you and I differ.
As far as I`m concerned the primary aim of the Swedish strategy was herd immunity.
From the outset practically every interview given by Anders Tegnell and Johan Giesecke included predictions on antibody levels Even the Swedish ambassador to the US was at it.
When the antibody test results showed how inaccurate those predictions were, Tegnell`s precursor as state epidemiologist Annika Linde let the cat out of the bag as to what the primary was.
The recently published emails from back in March, uncovered under freedom of information, between Tegnell and Giesecke and Tegnell and his Finnish counterpart Mika Salminen, would certainly not dissuade me from that belief.

It's hard to disagree with you on this especially with these email leaks (have not read them myself). The living with the virus for two years sustainable plan sounds a lot more PC of course.

Whatever way it's worded though do you think we can make any inferences/deductions about their hopes for a vaccine when they came up with their strategy and would it be different now?