Sweden avoiding lockdown

suicide_circus

suicide_circus wrote: »

if i get covid 19 tomorrow and fall down the stairs and die the day after, i will have died from covid 19

Wasn't there apparently someone in the states who was in a car crash and died from the COVID..

sydthebeat

Swedens numbers depend on the person being tested before dying.
Swedens testing numbers are pitiful.

Their true covid death numbers are absolutely higher than what they report

Ultimately there is only one way to count numbers and that is to look at long term mortality rates. We won't really know what happened in a lot of countries until that analysis is done, numbers are just too sketchy and there are arguments for either inflating them or decreasing them.

Of course then you will get into having to separate out covid deaths from those indirectly caused by economic shock and other illnesses not being treated.

It will take at least a year and probably 2 to get a clear view. People making instant judgements at the moment don't really have the data to do so with confidence.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Deleted User wrote: »

Ultimately there is only one way to count numbers and that is to look at long term mortality rates. We won't really know what happened in a lot of countries until that analysis is done, numbers are just too sketchy and there are arguments for either inflating them or decreasing them.

Of course then you will get into having to separate out covid deaths from those indirectly caused by economic shock and other illnesses not being treated.

It will take at least a year and probably 2 to get a clear view. People making instant judgements at the moment don't really have the data to do so with confidence.

Look at swine flu in 2009.

1.6 million confirmed cases. 700 million to 1.4 billion is considered the true number of cases.

The_Kew_Tour

Basically Sweden’s restrictions are just bit lighter.

The main cities are much quieter and trade is down as much as 80 to 90%. All OAPs are asked stayed inside. It’s not business as usual like so many think

sydthebeat

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Basically Sweden’s restrictions are just bit lighter.

The main cities are much quieter and trade is down as much as 80 to 90%. All OAPs are asked stayed inside. It’s not business as usual like so many think

Any source for those figures KT?

it would be an interesting if disturbing outcome from the swedish experiment if their economy took a serious hit due to personal actions, even though the governmental policy of risk versus reward was weighed towards the economy

tom1ie

thebaz wrote: »

From most studies done , so far, C19 does not mutate much , this is good news, as people who become infected , and recover, will most likely then have immunity for a few years.

did Iceland not release a report identifying 40 different strains of c19?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8146565/Scientists-Iceland-claim-FORTY-mutations-coronavirus.html

it is a daily mail link above but I'm sure I read it somewhere else aswell.

Del Griffith

sydthebeat wrote: »

Swedens numbers depend on the person being tested before dying.
Swedens testing numbers are pitiful.

Their true covid death numbers are absolutely higher than what they report

As are the recovery numbers and the asymptomatic etc, I mean you can only work with the data you have. As they are cross referencing anyone that dies of anything with a test result I'd say it evens out.

As another poster said the only real way to know is v normal morality rates.

Downlinz

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Basically Sweden’s restrictions are just bit lighter.

The main cities are much quieter and trade is down as much as 80 to 90%. All OAPs are asked stayed inside. It’s not business as usual like so many think

They're also a country with the population density of Carlow or Wexford so I'd imagine it's quite a manageable situation outside of Stockholm.

Cuddlesworth

Deleted User wrote: »

It will take at least a year and probably 2 to get a clear view. People making instant judgements at the moment don't really have the data to do so with confidence.

For most European countries, it won't take a year or two. We will see pretty good figures by the summer. Deaths in general are pretty static in terms of the overall population.

Eg, if there were roughly 10k deaths in the last 4 Aprils, but 16k deaths this April then regardless of the official "reason", the pandemic caused a additional 6k deaths either directly or indirectly.

See the UK for example.

In general the average is within a couple of hundred for a week. Over the year it averages out. Yet in week 14, England and Wales saw a additional 6k deaths with 3.5k reported as Covid19. Official figures have them at at 3.6k deaths by april the 3rd, but its fair to say there was a larger impact to the 2 regions then reported officially by Covid numbers alone.

We will have our own figures, published publically or not.

Outside of that, there will also be impacts in other ways. Less car deaths, higher rates of suicide because of the situation, people dying due to lack of medical care in other areas.

sydthebeat

Del Griffith wrote: »

As are the recovery numbers and the asymptomatic etc, I mean you can only work with the data you have. As they are cross referencing anyone that dies of anything with a test result I'd say it evens out.

As another poster said the only real way to know is v normal morality rates.

I really doubt the the numbers that "fall down the stairs" and die with covid are in anyway equitable to those that die due to the virus without being tested.... That's just non sensical, especially when viewed against their very low testing figures.

"I’ve never written so many death certificates. I’ve never worked this many hours,” says an exhausted Issa Yacoub, a doctor working in Sodersjukhuset, one of Stockholm’s largest public hospitals."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-doctor-death-certificates-latest-a9462796.html

I see they are opening primary schools and playschools today in Denmark.

That doesn't really tally with the narrative that Sweden's neighbours are horrified and worried about their approach. Denmark's numbers are good but you wouldn't look at them and say everything is under control. And as above we don't really know how much we can trust numbers anyway.

I hope it works out for them, we are very lucky that other European countries are willing to put a toe in the water before ourselves...

iamwhoiam

Was it ever proven or researched that children are a huge virus carrying group ?
Not disputing it but just wondering if they actually are a source of the spread ?
Then the spread in care homes for example was not children at all .

cgcsb

biko wrote: »

Have you even been to Sweden?
Where did you go?

Yes, Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo. There's some night life Gothenburg and a bit of a student vibe, but still even compared to a smaller Irish City it's void of life after dark.

plodder

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Was it ever proven or researched that children are a huge virus carrying group ?
Not disputing it but just wondering if they actually are a source of the spread ?
Then the spread in care homes for example was not children at all .

I'm not sure very much has been proven, but the reasoning about children is based on the theory that asymptomatic people are more likely to be spreaders and children are more likely to be asymptomatic and in close contact with each other.

I didn't think children were being blamed for the spread in care homes. I suspect that care homes aren't much more badly affected than the community at large. Just that the residents are more vulnerable to severe effects. Can't quote any actual evidence for the above though.

wakka12

Sweden reports 170 deaths today

Per capita that is more deaths in a single day than Italy ever reported

Att vara en hest

wakka12 wrote: »

Sweden reports 170 deaths today

Per capita that is more deaths in a single day than Italy ever reported

also worth noting that death counts in Sweden always laggs behind over weekend and the numbers peak later in week when numbers catch up. Listening to the press conference right now the number is lower than they had expected.

sydthebeat

yeah its quite difficult to see and trend with the way they are so slow at reporting deaths

it would be helpful if they actually came out and told the swedish people what numbers they actually expect during this crisis, and when they expect life to return to normal.

biko

biko wrote: »

Sweden is currently at 9.28% death rate
11536 cases
1071 dead

That was yesterday ^^^
The Swedish site c19.se reports 1220 dead out of 11996
10.17% death rate today

Att vara en hest

deaths/totalcases is not really a valid method of calculating the death rate, especially not in Sweden considering the very low number of tests done. I have two friends with symptoms for Corona, both wanted to get tested but they were told it's not needed.. One is still sick and the other has recovered by now (it's been 3~ weeks). Without knowing how many of these 'mild' (treat at home) cases there are, it's impossible to calculate the death rate from the "known cases".

As grim as it is, we're still talking 1200 dead in a country of 11 million people, and most of the dead have had underlying conditions or are older... Sure, so far the death rate does seem to be higher than other countries - but at least the majority of people are able to continue living life somewhat normally (with a few light restrictions) which is at least enough to spare some of the smaller businesses from going out of business. You'd have to ask yourself, is it worth wrecking the economy and imposing heavy restrictions on your citizens just to save a few hundreds?

Poverty and recession are not exactly great for the general health.

jimmycrackcorm

tom1ie wrote: »

did Iceland not release a report identifying 40 different strains of c19?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8146565/Scientists-Iceland-claim-FORTY-mutations-coronavirus.html

it is a daily mail link above but I'm sure I read it somewhere else aswell.

It's not different strains but source tracking from subtle mutations.

Murple

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Was it ever proven or researched that children are a huge virus carrying group ?
Not disputing it but just wondering if they actually are a source of the spread ?
Then the spread in care homes for example was not children at all .

Children often don’t display symptoms.
Children are generally in very close contact with other people- being held, hugged, cared for, holding hands, playing together, etc.
Children’s hygiene would be harder to manage- hand washing, not touching face etc. - ever seen a small child on a bus licking bars, finger up nose then pressing buttons, coughing open mouthed towards other people, ...
Children are not as competent at keeping social distancing...or any distance for that matter.
Children handle everything.
Spend any time with groups of children and you see how things spread in a way that they don’t among groups of adults.

biko

Att vara en hest wrote: »

You'd have to ask yourself, is it worth wrecking the economy and imposing heavy restrictions on your citizens just to save a few hundreds?

This seems to be the general Swedish approach, let the old and infirm die so the young and strong can go on.

It has its merits, although I am totally opposed to this thinking.
Sweden is failing to protect it's most vulnerable citizens that actually built the economy they are now trying to protect.

Tbh, I'm not surprised of this attitude though, when even former Minister for Social Security Annika Strandhäll said "old people are a problem for our health sector".

biko

Note that when I say "Sweden" I mean the current government.
There are plenty of professors of medicine that don't agree with the Swedish government approach. And professors in other Nordic countries.

growleaves

There are plenty of professors of medicine that don't agree with the Swedish government approach. And professors in other Nordic countries.

Likewise there are plenty of professors of medicine and disease specialists that don't agree with the approach taken by countries other than Sweden.

While it might be possible to assert that climate scientists all subscribe to one consensus, it definitely won't fly when it comes to epidemologists and medical professors and some of these are the very definition of mainstream, i.e. the disease specialist labs at Oxford University.

growleaves

See Sweden in the middle:

Att vara en hest

growleaves wrote: »

See Sweden in the middle:

"lagom.. as all things should be" :pac:

sydthebeat

can anyone shed some light on why the number of tests in sweden hasnt changed for nearly a week now?

have they completely stopped testing and assumed that "herd immunity" will take place naturally, so it doenst matter where clusters form?

have they just not released the figures of testing done?

Id find it unbelievable if they have simply stopped testing

thebaz

sydthebeat wrote: »

it would be helpful if they actually came out and told the swedish people what numbers they actually expect during this crisis, and when they expect life to return to normal.

according to this Guardian report , they believe they are now near the peak of outbreak :-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

maninasia

thebaz wrote: »

according to this Guardian report , they believe they are now near the peak of outbreak :-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

They are hoping since they don't know how many have actually been infected.