Sweden avoiding lockdown

Ginger n Lemon

kippy wrote: »

Attitude towards health, government, personal responsibility, the actions of the state etc etc are not the same in every country.

There's plenty "well educated" idiots out there.

I am just trying to understand, are you really saying that attitude towards personal health is not the same in every country?

So you are saying that if governments in every EU country announce that there is a deadly infectious disease out there and that people should be careful, you think that some EU countries will have majority of population staying at home and staying safe while other EU countries will have majority of population taking unnecessary daily walks and shopping trips every day?

kippy

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am just trying to understand, are you really saying that attitude towards personal health is not the same in every country?

So you are saying that if governments in every EU country announce that there is a deadly infectious disease out there and that people should be careful, you think that some EU countries will have majority of population staying at home and staying safe while other EU countries will have majority of population taking unnecessary daily walks and shopping trips every day?

Attitude to personal health is not the same in every family.

tobefrank321

kippy wrote: »

Absolutely no idea of the nuances involved in adding 600 additional ICU beds in the course of a few weeks but I doubt it would have been that simple.

Definitely not simple. Very difficult. But we really are at war with this thing so a massive effort should have been put into it. 600 extra beds in 6 months might have been stretch. But they could have committed to for example 20 extra ICU beds per week and put huge resources into it. Spare ICU capacity is not the only reason to lockdown but it is one of the main reasons. And you cannot live with Covid if you don't have significant spare ICU capacity.

One of the reasons Sweden didn't have to lockdown was a significantly better health system than us.

JJayoo

"To increase ICU beds to 1000 would probably cost no more than a billion or 1 million per bed. Thousands of nurses came home from abroad many with ICU experience"

And can we borrow your time machine? How many hundreds sitting on trolleys before the virus but somehow gov can magic up all these ICU beds

MerlinSouthDub

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

On that in bold, I am curious, could you please say why you didnt agree with their approach?

UK were on course for Swedish approach until mad Neil Ferguson predicted 500k + deaths in UK and BBCs and the Telegraph started to report this "prediction".

Lockdown strategy came from countries like China. So straight away you'd have to ask questions - can China be trusted? answer is obvious. China is not even a democracy. Doctor who leaked the info about covid subsequently "died from covid", he did not seem to be over 65 and its highly unlikely he had any underlying conditions.

I genuinely think that the strategy of putting healthy people into quarantine for months on end because China have locked down Wuhan, was a mistake of epic proportions. Books will be written about this, movies will be filmed about this. And as early as next year actually, when Sweden report less deaths in 2020 than 2019.

On a side note it is very unfortunate that a lot of people in Ireland are poorly educated and are full of stereo types and think of our nation as some sort of country of idiots who cant be trusted and who would lick every door handle if "restrictions" were removed (not talking about you btw), when relentlessly refusing to admit superiority of the Swedish strategy. "oh that wouldnt work here"... last time I checked people in Sweden have 2 arms and 2 legs. Same as in Ireland.

The reason I don't agree with the approach Sweden took is that we didn't know enough about the virus at the time they took the decision not to lockdown. It was a very high risk approach, and could have led to many more deaths.

However, knowing all we do now, I think the Swedish approach is the best approach overall. But they could not have known that back in March.

take everything

Isn't Sweden's mortality rate ten times that of Norway, a culturally comparable country.

Surely, however Sweden are doing, that is the relevant comparison. Not any comparison with Ireland.

The differences between Ireland and Sweden culturally (mindset, apartment living, responsible, grown-up attitudes to pub/restaurant culture) and geographically (spread out) etc are vast. It's like apples and oranges.

Not so much between Sweden with Norway.

So Sweden not doing quite poorly really.
And apparently their economy isn't any better.

tobefrank321

JJayoo wrote: »

"To increase ICU beds to 1000 would probably cost no more than a billion or 1 million per bed. Thousands of nurses came home from abroad many with ICU experience"

And can we borrow your time machine? How many hundreds sitting on trolleys before the virus but somehow gov can magic up all these ICU beds

Fine. Lockdown it is. Including likely national lockdown when current ICU spare capacity is used up.

I will let you do the maths when that is, based on current trends.

ArthurDayne

take everything wrote: »

Isn't Sweden's mortality rate ten times that of Norway, a culturally comparable country.

Surely, however Sweden are doing, that is the relevant comparison. Not any comparison with Ireland.

The differences between Ireland and Sweden culturally (mindset, apartment living, responsible, grown-up attitudes to pub/restaurant culture) and geographically (spread out) etc are vast. It's like apples and oranges.

Not so much between Sweden with Norway.

So Sweden not doing quite poorly really.
And apparently their economy isn't any better.

But the problem with all this talk about cultural differences seems to ignore the true problem — care homes. Half of Ireland’s deaths were care home residents, so the extent to which those deaths were directly attributable to some unique weird quirk about Irish culture or pubs is fairly questionable to me. Yes, perfectly rational to say that the greater the prevalence of the virus in society, the greater the chance it will wind up in a care home. But it doesn’t change the fact that better shielding of care homes and a more complete and microscopic devotion of time, resources and messaging to that area would have saved many lives. For all of our lockdown efforts, and for all the holier-than-thou criticism which was directed at Sweden over the past few months, the virus still ripped through Irish care homes just as it did in Sweden.

So for all we want to say about Sweden being this utterly different place that may as well be on another planet — the fact remains that our main source of death numbers was the same as theirs. The difference is that they at least now appear to have a long term sustainable strategy for living with the virus, while we are struggling to even develop any form of coherent strategy at all.

tobefrank321

Moodys predicted an 8.5% contraction for Ireland in 2020 but its unclear if that includes a second national lockdown which now appears inevitable.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-to-contract-by-8-5-in-2020-moody-s-warns-1.4333927?mode=amp

The latest estimates for Sweden is a contraction of 4.6%.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109576/gdp-growth-forecast-in-sweden/

And Sweden won't have a second lockdown.

MerlinSouthDub

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Moodys predicted an 8.5% contraction for Ireland in 2020 but its unclear if that includes a second national lockdown which now appears inevitable.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-to-contract-by-8-5-in-2020-moody-s-warns-1.4333927?mode=amp

The latest estimates for Sweden is a contraction of 4.6%.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109576/gdp-growth-forecast-in-sweden/

And Sweden won't have a second lockdown.

They didn't even have a first lockdown!

tobefrank321

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

They didn't even have a first lockdown!

Yes sorry badly phrased. They won't be locking down like us.

Bit cynical

growleaves wrote: »

Do you mean South Korean figures? I don't think figures out of North Korea are considered trustworthy due to the nature of the regime there.

I also said it would be under 1% and when you asked people what evidence they had that this would be one of history's worst diseases they could only say that the future is unknown, which is a non-answer.

Yes, sorry meant South Korea.

d15ude

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am just trying to understand, are you really saying that attitude towards personal health is not the same in every country?

Definitely!

zerosugarbuzz

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am just trying to understand, are you really saying that attitude towards personal health is not the same in every country?

So you are saying that if governments in every EU country announce that there is a deadly infectious disease out there and that people should be careful, you think that some EU countries will have majority of population staying at home and staying safe while other EU countries will have majority of population taking unnecessary daily walks and shopping trips every day?

Unnecessary daily walks!! Seriously?

patnor1011

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am just trying to understand, are you really saying that attitude towards personal health is not the same in every country?

So you are saying that if governments in every EU country announce that there is a deadly infectious disease out there and that people should be careful, you think that some EU countries will have majority of population staying at home and staying safe while other EU countries will have majority of population taking unnecessary daily walks and shopping trips every day?

You fail to understand that even at the height of lockdown even through those first 2 weeks when streets were empty there was over a third of workforce still going on about their daily routine. You see someone had to work to maintain that lockdown illusion when people were glued to TV and internet trying to figure out if armageddon is to come.
To see how lockdown was nothing but a PR stunt one has to realize that those people who went to work to cater for scared compatriots every day returned to their families potentially exposing them to this "deadly infectious disease".

Ginger n Lemon

ArthurDayne wrote: »

But the problem with all this talk about cultural differences seems to ignore the true problem — care homes. Half of Ireland’s deaths were care home residents, so the extent to which those deaths were directly attributable to some unique weird quirk about Irish culture or pubs is fairly questionable to me. Yes, perfectly rational to say that the greater the prevalence of the virus in society, the greater the chance it will wind up in a care home. But it doesn’t change the fact that better shielding of care homes and a more complete and microscopic devotion of time, resources and messaging to that area would have saved many lives. For all of our lockdown efforts, and for all the holier-than-thou criticism which was directed at Sweden over the past few months, the virus still ripped through Irish care homes just as it did in Sweden.

So for all we want to say about Sweden being this utterly different place that may as well be on another planet — the fact remains that our main source of death numbers was the same as theirs. The difference is that they at least now appear to have a long term sustainable strategy for living with the virus, while we are struggling to even develop any form of coherent strategy at all.

The most likes I've seen for a post in this thread. 100% agree, people in Sweden have 2 arms and 2 legs. Yet reading some posts here you'd think they have genetically modified DNA or something, some superiour genes.

Only thing I ll add is that not only we do not have any coherent strategy but our suicide deaths are mounting, our unemployment seems to be set for 15% for the next 12 - 18 months (assuming no further lockdowns) and amount of people who have developed cancer is also extremely high.

Ginger n Lemon

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The reason I don't agree with the approach Sweden took is that we didn't know enough about the virus at the time they took the decision not to lockdown. It was a very high risk approach, and could have led to many more deaths.

However, knowing all we do now, I think the Swedish approach is the best approach overall. But they could not have known that back in March.

But your statement assumes that "we knew" lockdown was the correct, tried and tested method? When it was never really.

The issue I have with saying Swedish approach was bad because not much was known at the time etc. assumes that there are 10 + scientific peer reviewed research papers on effectiveness of lockdowns. When actually, as Dublin has re entered its own lockdown, lockdowns are not even recommended by WHO!(currently)

MerlinSouthDub

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But your statement assumes that "we knew" lockdown was the correct, tried and tested method? When it was never really.

The issue I have with saying Swedish approach was bad because not much was known at the time etc. assumes that there are 10 + scientific peer reviewed research papers on effectiveness of lockdowns. When actually, as Dublin has re entered its own lockdown, lockdowns are not even recommended by WHO!(currently)

All I'm saying is that there is a strong rationale for a lockdown when a new serious, fast spreading virus is in town. It at least allows a bit of time to assess how bad the virus really is.

kippy

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But your statement assumes that "we knew" lockdown was the correct, tried and tested method? When it was never really.

The issue I have with saying Swedish approach was bad because not much was known at the time etc. assumes that there are 10 + scientific peer reviewed research papers on effectiveness of lockdowns. When actually, as Dublin has re entered its own lockdown, lockdowns are not even recommended by WHO!(currently)

What is a lockdown?

ArthurDayne

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

All I'm saying is that there is a strong rationale for a lockdown when a new serious, fast spreading virus is in town. It at least allows a bit of time to assess how bad the virus really is.

I’ve never questioned that people mean the absolute best when they make points like these, but at the same time it’s as if they are acting like the way this virus behaved (as in, who it killed or left in critical condition) was a complete mystery from the early days. It wasn’t. The figures from other countries were clear for anyone who actually just sat down and read them — rather than the scaremongering stories in the media which singled out extremely rare cases of young people dying. It was clear from the start where the risk groups were. Unlike Spanish Flu, which ripped through the young healthy and economically active population, this virus posed its most severe threat to the elderly. Sweden looked at this and effectively realised that the long term way of dealing with this virus was to prevent a scenario where your least-at-risk and most economically active sector of the population are left redundant en masse.

The simple fact is that many people who were pointing this out at the start were immediately lumped into the Trump / Tory government / Gemma O’Doherty category — and dismissed as being either crackpots or cold-hearted capitalists who would gladly see old people die. I’m no right winger, I detest the politics of Trump and the Tories, and I think Gemma O’Doherty is a loon ... yet the amount of people I debated with during the lockdown who just assumed that I must invariably love all of the above is as incredible as it is frustrating.

Far too often I read comments on here with people saying that we just didn’t know. We did — we simply ostracised the views of those who were making these points and lumped them all in the crazy conspiracist anti-vaxxer bucket when there were many perfectly reasonable people pointing out that the heavy lockdown strategy (and the narrative of moral perfection towards the death of elderly people that went with it) would be unsustainable.

byhookorbycrook

https://twitter.com/andreiasaveswe/status/1307679322195537923?s=21

Interesting to read the tweet above .

Ginger n Lemon

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

https://twitter.com/andreiasaveswe/status/1307679322195537923?s=21

Interesting to read the tweet above .

I dont think there is a Swedish employment law that states you will get fired for wearing a mask in the workplace. Seeing how the individual says "might get fired if I try" suggests lack of legal knowledge and inability to interpret one's employment contract (I've stopped reading the tweet there after as such individual will say other things that are equally inaccurate).

You could understand Swedish employer though, cases in Sweden (along with deaths) have been falling steadily (unlike countries with mandatory mask wearing eg. Spain), employer would be right to ask questions as to why one would want to wear a mask now all of a sudden when the curve has been crushed in Sweden.

I suppose if this individual tweeting can provide a comprehensive reasoning, I am sure her employer would happily allow her not only to wear a mask but to wear an astronaut suit if it makes her happy.

tobefrank321

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I dont think there is a Swedish employment law that states you will get fired for wearing a mask in the workplace. Seeing how the individual says "might get fired if I try" suggests lack of legal knowledge and inability to interpret one's employment contract (I've stopped reading the tweet there after as such individual will say other things that are equally inaccurate).

You could understand Swedish employer though, cases in Sweden (along with deaths) have been falling steadily (unlike countries with mandatory mask wearing eg. Spain), employer would be right to ask questions as to why one would want to wear a mask now all of a sudden when the curve has been crushed in Sweden.

I suppose if this individual tweeting can provide a comprehensive reasoning, I am sure her employer would happily allow her not only to wear a mask but to wear an astronaut suit if it makes her happy.

Agreed. The tweeter is clueless about many things.

1. People denied care and given morphine instead - happened in every western country that tried to limit ICU admissions including Ireland. Remember the care home in Port Laois where 9 patients died in a weekend. Most if not all were likely to have been given morphine as there was no mention of admission to ICU. Most nursing home patients were given end of life care in nursing homes. It was said at the time to be the most humane thing to do.

2. Forcing kids to school - happens in every country - otherwise our education system would be chaos. I'm sure in Sweden like most countries if you can prove you have effective home schooling in place they will accept this. The point being kids are best in school, not sitting on the couch at home doing nothing. Sweden have been very good at this during covid 19. The education of kids in most other countries has suffered.

3. Mask at work or fired? Very much doubt this. But if her mask puts off fellow workers or customers she should reconsider wearing it.

tobefrank321

ArthurDayne wrote: »

I’ve never questioned that people mean the absolute best when they make points like these, but at the same time it’s as if they are acting like the way this virus behaved (as in, who it killed or left in critical condition) was a complete mystery from the early days. It wasn’t. The figures from other countries were clear for anyone who actually just sat down and read them — rather than the scaremongering stories in the media which singled out extremely rare cases of young people dying. It was clear from the start where the risk groups were. Unlike Spanish Flu, which ripped through the young healthy and economically active population, this virus posed its most severe threat to the elderly. Sweden looked at this and effectively realised that the long term way of dealing with this virus was to prevent a scenario where your least-at-risk and most economically active sector of the population are left redundant en masse.

The simple fact is that many people who were pointing this out at the start were immediately lumped into the Trump / Tory government / Gemma O’Doherty category — and dismissed as being either crackpots or cold-hearted capitalists who would gladly see old people die. I’m no right winger, I detest the politics of Trump and the Tories, and I think Gemma O’Doherty is a loon ... yet the amount of people I debated with during the lockdown who just assumed that I must invariably love all of the above is as incredible as it is frustrating.

Far too often I read comments on here with people saying that we just didn’t know. We did — we simply ostracised the views of those who were making these points and lumped them all in the crazy conspiracist anti-vaxxer bucket when there were many perfectly reasonable people pointing out that the heavy lockdown strategy (and the narrative of moral perfection towards the death of elderly people that went with it) would be unsustainable.

This is the almost criminal aspect of covid 19 which happened in virtually every western country.

Hospitals and ICUs were cleared out in expectation of a mass influx of patients of all ages. And instead nursing homes were left wide open with virtually no assistance. And patients were sent from hospitals to nursing homes without any testing. Here in Ireland the HSE tried and probably succeeded in recruiting staff from nursing homes to be deployed to hospitals leaving those homes critically short staffed. Meanwhile thousands of medical staff who the HSE made a big deal of inviting home, weren't offered contracts.

That said it sounds like similar happened in every western country including Sweden but the Swedish health officials at least had the decency to apologise.

But as you said there was zero research into who was most susceptible to dying from covid 19. They assumed anyone could die and the media continue to peddle a similar myth which is completely counter productive.

landofthetree

Diarmuid

Just to note that that;s a log scale. Not linear.,

cnocbui

tobefrank321 wrote: »

This is the almost criminal aspect of covid 19 which happened in virtually every western country.

Hospitals and ICUs were cleared out in expectation of a mass influx of patients of all ages. And instead nursing homes were left wide open with virtually no assistance. And patients were sent from hospitals to nursing homes without any testing. Here in Ireland the HSE tried and probably succeeded in recruiting staff from nursing homes to be deployed to hospitals leaving those homes critically short staffed. Meanwhile thousands of medical staff who the HSE made a big deal of inviting home, weren't offered contracts.

That said it sounds like similar happened in every western country including Sweden but the Swedish health officials at least had the decency to apologise.

But as you said there was zero research into who was most susceptible to dying from covid 19. They assumed anyone could die and the media continue to peddle a similar myth which is completely counter productive.

Nothing near criminal about it, just some internet sheep thinking they are geniuses with the benefit of hindsight.

Research is not something that can be done in real-time, which is what responses to a fluid and unfolding pandemic had to be.

Ginger n Lemon

cnocbui wrote: »

Nothing near criminal about it, just some internet sheep thinking they are geniuses with the benefit of hindsight.

Research is not something that can be done in real-time, which is what responses to a fluid and unfolding pandemic had to be.

Sorry to disappoint you but a lot of people, including myself (and I know growleaves for a fact also), always thought that putting healthy people into quarantine which is an unproven tactic, and following Wuhan lockdown measures was - NEVER A GOOD IDEA. As far back as - you guessed it, first week of March (I didnt post back then, but growleaves posts will be evident).

And whatever fluid unfolding pandemic situation you are talking about, I've watched below on 17th of April, the man was proven 100% correct on every single word. However, smart people are rarely listened to, Leo proceeded to announce a further 2 week lockdown extension on 1st of May (2 weeks after this video was published) and a 5 stage re opening plan that had barbers re open on 21st of July... while they did "recover" somewhat with this fiasco by accelerating the plan, it was quite clear that information was available to them as early as April but they still proceeded keeping country in essential lockdown until 29th of June. (I wont mention wet pubs situation)

Spiderman0081

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

https://twitter.com/andreiasaveswe/status/1307679322195537923?s=21

Interesting to read the tweet above .

Hilarious. I wouldn’t want her working for me either

kippy

Great video above.
It would be well on some people to listen out for some of the restrictions that are in place and the adherence of same by the general populace.