Sweden avoiding lockdown

douglashyde

What I find so worrying about this is how the govt & policy makers have dug their heels in despite mounting evidence/facts. To be proven wrong now would be career destroying stuff and it's easier for officials to say 'well the experts told me otherwise'. This is textbook bureaucracy and public sector crap.

A large chunk of the population are for pro lockdown. My parents included. They'll comment "did you see the numbers today?" - Like they're watching the lotto....... To challenge them with facts of almost "non existent death numbers" or "those that die, die at an advanced age w/ comorbidity" will be met by looks of disgust.

However, I do believe there is light at the end of the tunnel. I've seen some pressure and commentary coming from respected influential people (David McWilliam's today briefly called out the 'Swedish model' in a positive light)

It's a matter not of if but when we start treating this virus for what it is. Taking precautions but not destroying our lives doing so.

ShineOn7

landofthetree wrote: »

Have you one that shows cases too?

It'd be interesting to see where their case curve is now, seeing that they pretty much let it rip through the population

kippy

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Have you one that shows cases too?

It'd be interesting to see where their case curve is now, seeing that they pretty much let it rip through the population

Christ. How often do people need to be told that they didn't 'let it rip' through the population.

Bit cynical

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Have you one that shows cases too?

It'd be interesting to see where their case curve is now, seeing that they pretty much let it rip through the population

They did have some restrictions as well as voluntary recommendations so letting it rip is not accurate. However over time a large proportion would have had some exposure to the virus without the very high deaths of Spain or Italy.

According to the figures they now have a low daily case rate by EU standards and this has been flat rather than exponentially growing as with Europe generally.

ShineOn7

kippy wrote: »

Christ. How often do people need to be told that they didn't 'let it rip' through the population.

Calm down

It's the first I've heard of Sweden not letting it rip

douglashyde

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Excellent video. 9 minute mark, in relation to Sweden response "We are tripling our ICU capacity"

Yet in Ireland; we lock down, cause billions of damage to the economy, lock down healthy people, destroy live hoods; effectively pause life for all.... You'd think with all of that, they'd at least hit their target capacity for ICU beds here.

This is an absolute mess. I can't wait until the books & movies come out about 2020.

tobefrank321

cnocbui wrote: »

Nothing near criminal about it, just some internet sheep thinking they are geniuses with the benefit of hindsight.

Research is not something that can be done in real-time, which is what responses to a fluid and unfolding pandemic had to be.

You and others can plead ignorance all you want.

Here's what was said about asymptomatic spread in January and acknowledged by Fauci:

(CNN)The nation's top infectious disease doctor says a new study published Thursday night shows people can spread the Wuhan coronavirus before symptoms set in.

German researchers found that the virus was transmitted by people without symptoms in five instances in one cluster of people: from a parent to a daughter; from that daughter to two colleagues; and from one of those colleagues to two other coworkers.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-study/index.html

It was well publicised at the time, but its obvious you missed it.

The HSE were advising travellers from hotspots in March and April that they didn't need to isolate on return if they had no symptoms. This led in one case to an infected doctor going into work as well as many more cases less publicised.

There is no need for hindsight when someone does a study and publishes the results all over the world including on cnn. Only a fool would then ignore these studies and say something like "hindsight is great".

lawred2

douglashyde wrote: »

What I find so worrying about this is how the govt & policy makers have dug their heels in despite mounting evidence/facts. To be proven wrong now would be career destroying stuff and it's easier for officials to say 'well the experts told me otherwise'. This is textbook bureaucracy and public sector crap.

A large chunk of the population are for pro lockdown. My parents included. They'll comment "did you see the numbers today?" - Like they're watching the lotto....... To challenge them with facts of almost "non existent death numbers" or "those that die, die at an advanced age w/ comorbidity" will be met by looks of disgust.

However, I do believe there is light at the end of the tunnel. I've seen some pressure and commentary coming from respected influential people (David McWilliam's today briefly called out the 'Swedish model' in a positive light)

It's a matter not of if but when we start treating this virus for what it is. Taking precautions but not destroying our lives doing so.

You've done the groundwork I presume!

Can we see your research data?

SeaBreezes

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Sorry to disappoint you but a lot of people, including myself (and I know growleaves for a fact also), always thought that putting healthy people into quarantine which is an unproven tactic, and following Wuhan lockdown measures was - NEVER A GOOD IDEA. As far back as - you guessed it, first week of March (I didnt post back then, but growleaves posts will be evident).

And whatever fluid unfolding pandemic situation you are talking about, I've watched below on 17th of April, the man was proven 100% correct on every single word. However, smart people are rarely listened to, Leo proceeded to announce a further 2 week lockdown extension on 1st of May (2 weeks after this video was published) and a 5 stage re opening plan that had barbers re open on 21st of July... while they did "recover" somewhat with this fiasco by accelerating the plan, it was quite clear that information was available to them as early as April but they still proceeded keeping country in essential lockdown until 29th of June. (I wont mention wet pubs situation)

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1308165147761029121?s=09

Mr. Karate

douglashyde wrote: »

Excellent video. 9 minute mark, in relation to Sweden response "We are tripling our ICU capacity"

Yet in Ireland; we lock down, cause billions of damage to the economy, lock down healthy people, destroy live hoods; effectively pause life for all.... You'd think with all of that, they'd at least hit their target capacity for ICU beds here.

This is an absolute mess. I can't wait until the books & movies come out about 2020.

Alot of World Leaders won't be remembered fondly for ruining people's lives and health over a virus with a 99% survival rate.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Sorry to disappoint you but a lot of people, including myself (and I know growleaves for a fact also), always thought that putting healthy people into quarantine which is an unproven tactic, and following Wuhan lockdown measures was - NEVER A GOOD IDEA. As far back as - you guessed it, first week of March (I didnt post back then, but growleaves posts will be evident).

And whatever fluid unfolding pandemic situation you are talking about, I've watched below on 17th of April, the man was proven 100% correct on every single word. However, smart people are rarely listened to, Leo proceeded to announce a further 2 week lockdown extension on 1st of May (2 weeks after this video was published) and a 5 stage re opening plan that had barbers re open on 21st of July... while they did "recover" somewhat with this fiasco by accelerating the plan, it was quite clear that information was available to them as early as April but they still proceeded keeping country in essential lockdown until 29th of June. (I wont mention wet pubs situation)

Except he was not correct.
He said Sweden would have herd immunity by April or at the latest May 2020.

bb1234567

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1308165147761029121?s=09

Is that the black number excess deaths or something? Because Sweden has 5800 confirmed not 6800

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

Except he was not correct.
He said Sweden would have herd immunity by April or at the latest May 2020.

Damn. Out of a 35 minute video, he was not correct on 1 sentence. He was actually partially correct Charles - give credit where its due.

Charlie what do you think about Swedish model now? They are on course for less deaths in 2020 than in 2019.

I'd call it astounding success.

Ginger n Lemon

bb1234567 wrote: »

Is that the black number excess deaths or something? Because Sweden has 5800 confirmed not 6800

Anyone who uses twitter as a source for information has another thing coming...

SeaBreezes

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Anyone who uses twitter as a source for information has another thing coming...

Cause youtube videos are SO much more intellectual? your hilarious!

Doesnt change the disgraceful mortality in sweden. Plus the 15% with covid still debilitated 3 months in.

And suggesting we have ANY clue how winter will go in sweden is beyond ridiculous.

Sweden is not a role model. Its an experiment. And so far, it hasnt worked. Horrific death toll in comparison to its neighbours. For no economic gain. Nieighbours fared better economically too.

Deaths fell in summer, hols and no schools.
Winter is the true test.
Glad i dont live in the experiment.

Ginger n Lemon

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Cause youtube videos are SO much more intellectual? your hilarious!

Doesnt change the disgraceful mortality in sweden. Plus the 15% with covid still debilitated 3 months in.

And suggesting we have ANY clue how winter will go in sweden is beyond ridiculous.

Sweden is not a role model. Its an experiment. And so far, it hasnt worked. Horrific death toll in comparison to its neighbours. For no economic gain. Nieighbours fared better economically too.

Deaths fell in summer, hols and no schools.
Winter is the true test.
Glad i dont live in the experiment.

telling healthy people to stay at home for months on end is not an experiment?

Closing schools down, children missing out on 3 months + of education and social interaction - not an experiment?

Having over 15% + of unemployment for 6 months, not an experiment?

Last but not least, fear mongering 2nd waves and keep blaming the public for non compliance to see where that gets us - not an experiment?

Listen to the video, they have increased their ICU substantially. That means less deaths. What have we done here, in Ireland, in the last 6 months with regards to ICU beds or healthcare?

When you answer above questions you ll find that you are the one living in an experiment, not Swedish people.

Nermal

charlie14 wrote: »

Except he was not correct.
He said Sweden would have herd immunity by April or at the latest May 2020.

Herd immunity is not a binary state. Nor is it measurable by antibody studies alone.

They obviously have a sufficient level that they can operate with far fewer impediments to normal life than we do.

dubrov

It is really hard to explain the large dropoff in cases/deaths in Sweden without assuming that either immunity is building or that those vulnerable to the virus have largely been already exposed.

SeaBreezes

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

telling healthy people to stay at home for months on end is not an experiment?

Closing schools down, children missing out on 3 months + of education and social interaction - not an experiment?

Having over 15% + of unemployment for 6 months, not an experiment?

Last but not least, fear mongering 2nd waves and keep blaming the public for non compliance to see where that gets us - not an experiment?

Listen to the video, they have increased their ICU substantially. That means less deaths. What have we done here, in Ireland, in the last 6 months with regards to ICU beds or healthcare?

When you answer above questions you ll find that you are the one living in an experiment, not Swedish people.

Less deaths? Are you having a laugh?

Pointless having increased ICU if so many die.

Their economy dropped MORE THAN OURS.. more unemployed, more poverty, more deaths.




They are not exactly being honest with their reports either.

dubrov

SeaBreezes wrote:

Their economy dropped MORE THAN OURS.. more unemployed, more poverty, more deaths.

Are you being that on GDP? The Irish GDP has little reflection of the real economy, particularly due to the large number of pharmaceuticals based here. Have a look at the historical numbers, especially 2015. Factor in government borrowing as well which I assume is much lower in Sweden.

The performance of the real economy will be clearer once all the government subsidies are removed

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

...........




They are not exactly being honest with their reports either.

There are no rapes in Sweden either iirc.

Ginger n Lemon

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Less deaths? Are you having a laugh?

Pointless having increased ICU if so many die.

Their economy dropped MORE THAN OURS.. more unemployed, more poverty, more deaths.




They are not exactly being honest with their reports either.

Please provide a link showing Sweden's unemployment being higher than ours listed below

April: 28%
May: 26%
June: 22.5%
July: 16.7%
August: 15.4%

If you dont, I will not respond to any of your posts. And you can continue thinking that they live in an experiment and not us :rolleyes:

PS out of 2 governments, only Swedish one has apologised for letting covid into care homes. Think about that when you discuss honesty.

tobefrank321

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Less deaths? Are you having a laugh?

Pointless having increased ICU if so many die.

Their economy dropped MORE THAN OURS.. more unemployed, more poverty, more deaths.


They are not exactly being honest with their reports either.

On Friday, they had 1 death, we had 3. Our population is half theirs.

They likely have hundreds of spare beds in their ICUs now. On Friday they admitted 1 new person to their ICU. Its been at about that level for a week or more now. Our ICU now has 45 spare beds. Hopefully it can be increased to deal with a surge.

As for the economy, that's complete nonsense. They are estimating a full year drop of 4.6%. In Ireland our GDP contraction is estimated by Moodys to be 8.6% and that was before the latest lockdowns. Just this week alone we put 30,000 on the dole in Dublin. The Swedes didn't do that.

And deaths, they have 50% more people in the vulnerable age category than us. And guess how many more deaths there has been in that age category in Sweden? 50%.

And I agree with Ginger and Lemon. The Swedes appear to have been among the most honest with this pandemic. They didn't fill their people with a bunch of lies and false hope like other governments.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Damn. Out of a 35 minute video, he was not correct on 1 sentence. He was actually partially correct Charles - give credit where its due.

Charlie what do you think about Swedish model now? They are on course for less deaths in 2020 than in 2019.

I'd call it astounding success.

So first Giesecke was 100% correct and now he is partially correct.
His whole premise for the Swedish strategy was based on Sweden having herd immunity by mid May at the latest.
If a premise is correct, then the conclusion must be correct. So no, he was not correct.



Is that a guess on less deaths in Sweden in 2020 than in 2019 similar to your guess that Sweden`s GDP would be o much better than Ireland`s, or do you have anything to back that up ?
You may have been gone and missed the second quarter GDP results.
Ireland outperformed Sweden by 40%.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Please provide a link showing Sweden's unemployment being higher than ours listed below

April: 28%
May: 26%
June: 22.5%
July: 16.7%
August: 15.4%

If you dont, I will not respond to any of your posts. And you can continue thinking that they live in an experiment and not us :rolleyes:

PS out of 2 governments, only Swedish one has apologised for letting covid into care homes. Think about that when you discuss honesty.

I mentioned this to you some time ago, but far as I recall you did not answer. Do you know what the term furlough signifies in employment terms. Especially in relation to unemployment statistics ?

tobefrank321

dubrov wrote: »

Are you being that on GDP? The Irish GDP has little reflection of the real economy, particularly due to the large number of pharmaceuticals based here. Have a look at the historical numbers, especially 2015. Factor in government borrowing as well which I assume is much lower in Sweden.

The performance of the real economy will be clearer once all the government subsidies are removed

Very true. A large number of US corporations with Europan HQs here have actually done very well economically from covid 19 - eg Microsoft, Intel, Amazon, Ebay, and countless pharmaceutical and medical firms.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

So first Giesecke was 100% correct and now he is partially correct.
His whole premise for the Swedish strategy was based on Sweden having herd immunity by mid May at the latest.
If a premise is correct, then the conclusion must be correct. So no, he was not correct.



Is that a guess on less deaths in Sweden in 2020 than in 2019 similar to your guess that Sweden`s GDP would be o much better than Ireland`s, or do you have anything to back that up ?
You may have been gone and missed the second quarter GDP results.
Ireland outperformed Sweden by 40%.

That in bold shows you still dont get what Swedish model was about, after all these months, and like what 500 posts in this thread alone from you? 1000?

If you think Ireland will outperform Sweden on GDP for 2020 or that Sweden will have more deaths this year than 2019, Charlie you are wrong, again, just give it few months.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

So first Giesecke was 100% correct and now he is partially correct.
His whole premise for the Swedish strategy was based on Sweden having herd immunity by mid May at the latest.
If a premise is correct, then the conclusion must be correct. So no, he was not correct.



Is that a guess on less deaths in Sweden in 2020 than in 2019 similar to your guess that Sweden`s GDP would be o much better than Ireland`s, or do you have anything to back that up ?
You may have been gone and missed the second quarter GDP results.
Ireland outperformed Sweden by 40%.

Seriously? If Ireland grew by 2% and Sweden by 1%, would you describe this as Ireland doing 100% better than Sweden? Of course you wouldn't. You'd describe it as Ireland doing better by 1%.

greyday

Every Government in Europe now has the benefit of seeing the Swedish strategy play out yet none of them are copying, why would that be?

Ginger n Lemon

tobefrank321 wrote: »

On Friday, they had 1 death, we had 3. Our population is half theirs.

They likely have hundreds of spare beds in their ICUs now. On Friday they admitted 1 new person to their ICU. Its been at about that level for a week or more now. Our ICU now has 45 spare beds. Hopefully it can be increased to deal with a surge.

As for the economy, that's complete nonsense. They are estimating a full year drop of 4.6%. In Ireland our GDP contraction is estimated by Moodys to be 8.6% and that was before the latest lockdowns. Just this week alone we put 30,000 on the dole in Dublin. The Swedes didn't do that.

And deaths, they have 50% more people in the vulnerable age category than us. And guess how many more deaths there has been in that age category in Sweden? 50%.

And I agree with Ginger and Lemon. The Swedes appear to have been among the most honest with this pandemic. They didn't fill their people with a bunch of lies and false hope like other governments.

That in bold is my response also to Charlie's posts. I frequently take break from responding to him, as he, still, thinks that Sweden will be worse off than Ireland. Which is amazing given that all of my friends who were happy seals clapping for HSE back in March and April now tell me that "sh*t, we should have followed Swedish model"