Sweden avoiding lockdown

Ginger n Lemon

greyday wrote: »

Every Government in Europe now has the benefit of seeing the Swedish strategy play out yet none of them are copying, why would that be?

Copying it would admit that initial strategy was wrong. Politicians careers usually end once they admit such.

Germany are copying it though, over 10,000 + fans in Dortmund game last Friday. Life is getting back to normality there.

We cant even have 1 fan in Croke park (this is after over 6 months of "pandemic")

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

I mentioned this to you some time ago, but far as I recall you did not answer. Do you know what the term furlough signifies in employment terms. Especially in relation to unemployment statistics ?

Furlough does mess up the unemployment numbers.

However, Sweden posted a huge budget surplus for August, one of the main reasons being their furlough scheme was massively underused.

There seems to be no doubt the cost of measures and supports is far higher in Ireland than Sweden.

greyday

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Copying it would admit that initial strategy was wrong. Politicians careers usually end once they admit such.

Germany are copying it though, over 10,000 + fans in Dortmund game last Friday. Life is getting back to normality there.

We cant even have 1 fan in Croke park (this is after over 6 months of "pandemic")

We saw what happened over the weekend with Dungannon Croakes.
Politicians not admitting another strategy works better is just plain wrong, they would love to be able to say we can do it another way rather than hurt the economy more, peoples quality of life will determine their futures in politics and lockdown is not helping them in that respect but they still choose that rather than the alternative which would enhance their chances of re-election, maybe they and the experts know a little more than the people on Boards.

the incredible pudding

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Furlough does mess up the unemployment numbers.

However, Sweden posted a huge budget surplus for August, one of the main reasons being their furlough scheme was massively underused.

There seems to be no doubt the cost of measures and supports is far higher in Ireland than Sweden.

Additionally, the furlough scheme is kind of complicated here (in Sweden). Businesses are able to declare that they're operating at say 80% capacity either due to facilitating more working from home / help social distancing or to help with the reduction in business and be paid a little extra to compensate for the difficult times. My girlfriend here, who is from Stockholm runs a start-up and they're effectively working 4 day weeks right now to help with social distancing (so not everyone is at the office) and being paid an extra .8 of a day or so by the government (so effectively getting ~96% of her salary while working 4 days). As you mentioned, this was undersubscribed to relevant to the budget allocated for it.

Ginger n Lemon

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Furlough does mess up the unemployment numbers.

However, Sweden posted a huge budget surplus for August, one of the main reasons being their furlough scheme was massively underused.

There seems to be no doubt the cost of measures and supports is far higher in Ireland than Sweden.

Furlough has nothing to do with 15.4% unemployment in Ireland as at 31 August. Those people do not have a job to go back to. Of that, maybe 0.5-1% are the pub workers who have not been allowed to go back to work until yesterday.

But overall we are looking at 1 in 6 being out of work for years to come (assuming no further lockdowns of industries like hospitality in Dublin). Unfortunately. This is the cost of our "lockdown strategy". And no sane person will open a customer facing business in Ireland for the next 6 - 18 months, after seeing how restaurants with full fridges were told to shut down OVERNIGHT, most speechless thing yet of this year...

tobefrank321

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Copying it would admit that initial strategy was wrong. Politicians careers usually end once they admit such.

Germany are copying it though, over 10,000 + fans in Dortmund game last Friday. Life is getting back to normality there.

We cant even have 1 fan in Croke park (this is after over 6 months of "pandemic")

Our sports including the GAA are in deep financial trouble. There isn't a huge TV market for Irish sports so they depend hugely on gate receipts, unlike for example in the UK.

Our strategy clearly hasn't worked when you look at Sweden's.

Bill Gates said today he see's the epidemic ending in 2022 in a best case scenario.

But with Swedish deaths and ICU admissions now virtually zero or 1 or 2 most days, it has already ended for them.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Seriously? If Ireland grew by 2% and Sweden by 1%, would you describe this as Ireland doing 100% better than Sweden? Of course you wouldn't. You'd describe it as Ireland doing better by 1%.

Sweden`s GDP 2Q contracted by 8.6%. Ireland`s by 6.1%. That is a 40% difference. Others here have used the same when comparing Sweden`s GDP to other countries and I do not remember a problem with it.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

That in bold shows you still dont get what Swedish model was about, after all these months, and like what 500 posts in this thread alone from you? 1000?

If you think Ireland will outperform Sweden on GDP for 2020 or that Sweden will have more deaths this year than 2019, Charlie you are wrong, again, just give it few months.

You see this is where you consistently fall between two stools.
Your post are all guesswork that when challenged on you have nothing to back them up.
You keep lauding Giesecke as being 100% correct when it is blatantly clear her was not Sweden did not have herd immunity by mid May.
It is now also blatantly clear from Annika Linde, former Swedish state epidemiologist and the emails uncovered through freedom of information by Emanuel Karlsten what Sweden`s model wa all about.

You predicted that Sweden would outperform Ireland in GDP due to us having lockdown yet in that period their GDP contracted by 8.6% while Ireland`s was 6.1% and income tax returns dropped by just 2%.

Now we have another of your predictions on Sweden having less deaths in 2020 than 2019 again with nothing to back it up.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Furlough has nothing to do with 15.4% unemployment in Ireland as at 31 August. Those people do not have a job to go back to. Of that, maybe 0.5-1% are the pub workers who have not been allowed to go back to work until yesterday.

But overall we are looking at 1 in 6 being out of work for years to come (assuming no further lockdowns of industries like hospitality in Dublin). Unfortunately. This is the cost of our "lockdown strategy". And no sane person will open a customer facing business in Ireland for the next 6 - 18 months, after seeing how restaurants with full fridges were told to shut down OVERNIGHT, most speechless thing yet of this year...

You either have no understanding of what furlough means in relation to unemployment statistics, or as usual you are just attempting to deflect.
Employees on furlough are looked on as being on a leave of absence and are thus not included in unemployment figures.
Mid Summer 2020 Bloomberg, when including these, put the figure for those not employed in Sweden at 17%.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Furlough does mess up the unemployment numbers.

However, Sweden posted a huge budget surplus for August, one of the main reasons being their furlough scheme was massively underused.

There seems to be no doubt the cost of measures and supports is far higher in Ireland than Sweden.

Agreed furlough does mess up the figures, but to just compare Ireland to Sweden on unemployment figures without taking them into account, (as the poster I was replying to was attempting to do), is not a comparison on a like for like basis.
Far as I recall one of the reasons being speculated on for that surplus was that the scheme was so difficult to take part in.

Either way, when it came to state revenue from employment Ireland did not perform that poorly during lockdown with just a 2% drop in income tax returns.

JimmyVik

Does anyone know how many actual deaths per 100k does Sweden have from COVID?
Im not interested in their number of cases, because clearly they arent really up for identifying cases.

Richard Hillman

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden`s GDP 2Q contracted by 8.6%. Ireland`s by 6.1%. That is a 40% difference. Others here have used the same when comparing Sweden`s GDP to other countries and I do not remember a problem with it.

Irelands GDP is masked by large multinational shell companies that hire **** all people and pay **** all tax. The real figure is around 16%

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0907/1163668-cso-second-quarter-gdp-figures/

The CSO also said that modified domestic demand, a measure that strips out some of the ways large multinational firms can distort GDP here, decreased by 16.4% in the second quarter.
[\quote]


Now obviously Sweden will have a similar scenario but probably not to the extent of us. We know our economy is very much skewed by

Ginger n Lemon

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Our sports including the GAA are in deep financial trouble. There isn't a huge TV market for Irish sports so they depend hugely on gate receipts, unlike for example in the UK.

Our strategy clearly hasn't worked when you look at Sweden's.

Bill Gates said today he see's the epidemic ending in 2022 in a best case scenario.

But with Swedish deaths and ICU admissions now virtually zero or 1 or 2 most days, it has already ended for them.

I think we can close this thread with those 2 sentences there. Well said. Well said.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

You see this is where you consistently fall between two stools.
Your post are all guesswork that when challenged on you have nothing to back them up.
You keep lauding Giesecke as being 100% correct when it is blatantly clear her was not Sweden did not have herd immunity by mid May.
It is now also blatantly clear from Annika Linde, former Swedish state epidemiologist and the emails uncovered through freedom of information by Emanuel Karlsten what Sweden`s model wa all about.

You predicted that Sweden would outperform Ireland in GDP due to us having lockdown yet in that period their GDP contracted by 8.6% while Ireland`s was 6.1% and income tax returns dropped by just 2%.

Now we have another of your predictions on Sweden having less deaths in 2020 than 2019 again with nothing to back it up.

Charlie I cant respond to all of your nonsense, but that in bold - really? Do you not see they have 1 person die with covid on average per day there now?

Or, are you adopting the idiotic approach below?

"Sweden report high deaths - their strategy doesnt work its a disaster!"

"Sweden report no deaths - their numbers cant be trusted!"

:rolleyes:

PS deaths up to 14th Sept have been published. If average weekly deaths over the last 6 weeks continue for rest of the year they will finish 2020 with less deaths than 2019. And thats when, you will have seriously difficult time reading your posts from 2020 about the Swedish strategy.

John O.Groats

charlie14 wrote: »

You either have no understanding of what furlough means in relation to unemployment statistics, or as usual you are just attempting to deflect.
Employees on furlough are looked on as being on a leave of absence and are thus not included in unemployment figures.
Mid Summer 2020 Bloomberg, when including these, put the figure for those not employed in Sweden at 17%.

Absolutely. A quick look at his posting history clearly shows that time and time again. The (not so) Artful Dodger of Boards.ie.

tobefrank321

Looking at the excess death charts for Europe, it does seem like last winter was a very mild flu season.

For week 10 of 2020, there were 23,000 excess deaths while for the same week in 2018, there were 89,000 excess deaths across Europe, or 66,000 more. The first 14 weeks of 2020 were substantially below deaths for 2018.

Once Coronavirus came along the tables were reversed. Unfortunately it looks like a large pool of people, likely in the hundreds of thousands benefitted from a mild flu season, but were then struck down by coronavirus.

If you look at the chart for Sweden, 2019 appears to have been a very mild year and they had well below average excess deaths.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Charlie I cant respond to all of your nonsense, but that in bold - really? Do you not see they have 1 person die with covid on average per day there now?

Or, are you adopting the idiotic approach below?

"Sweden report high deaths - their strategy doesnt work its a disaster!"

"Sweden report no deaths - their numbers cant be trusted!"

:rolleyes:

PS deaths up to 14th Sept have been published. If average weekly deaths over the last 6 weeks continue for rest of the year they will finish 2020 with less deaths than 2019. And thats when, you will have seriously difficult time reading your posts from 2020 about the Swedish strategy.

Your posts consist of nothing more than supposition and guesswork which when challenged on your only replie are attempts to deflect.
Often with with made up "facts".
Over the 14 days to Friday Sweden had 30 Covid-19 deaths.

Sweden do not have less less average weekly deaths for the 6 weeks prior to 14th September.
For 3 of the 6 weeks prior to Sept 14th. when compared to the average weekly deaths 2015 -2019 (where the yearly deaths are actually 2,000 greater than 2019), Sweden`s weekly death were higher.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Looking at the excess death charts for Europe, it does seem like last winter was a very mild flu season.

For week 10 of 2020, there were 23,000 excess deaths while for the same week in 2018, there were 89,000 excess deaths across Europe, or 66,000 more. The first 14 weeks of 2020 were substantially below deaths for 2018.

Once Coronavirus came along the tables were reversed. Unfortunately it looks like a large pool of people, likely in the hundreds of thousands benefitted from a mild flu season, but were then struck down by coronavirus.

If you look at the chart for Sweden, 2019 appears to have been a very mild year and they had well below average excess deaths.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Around 2,000 less deaths than average up until middle of March as far as I remember. There has been some speculation, especially in Sweden, that compared to the other three Scandinavian countries that explains the difference in Sweden`s Covid-19 deaths, but Norway in particular have contested that.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Around 2,000 less deaths than average up until middle of March as far as I remember. There has been some speculation, especially in Sweden, that compared to the other three Scandinavian countries that explains the difference in Sweden`s Covid-19 deaths, but Norway in particular have contested that.

I haven't figured out how to post images on here, but, 2019 appears to have been milder for Sweden excess deaths than Norway. Sweden only hit a substantial increase for one week of 2019 and that was in the middle of the summer. Most of the rest of the year they were at or below baseline whereas Norway were at or above baseline.

One thing I notice too is the flu appears to kill a reasonable number of young people in any given year but that declined in winter 2019/20.

But the graphs don't really lie.

2018 was a very severe year for excess deaths across Europe.
While 2019 was a very mild year.

So possibly 2018 killed a lot of people who you'd expect to die in 2019. And a lot of people died in 2020 who should have died in 2019.

ziggyman17

cases in Stockholm on the rise, talks of a incoming lockdown,

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/oARx8R/tecken-pa-att-smittan-okar-i-stockholm

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

Your posts consist of nothing more than supposition and guesswork which when challenged on your only replie are attempts to deflect.
Often with with made up "facts".
Over the 14 days to Friday Sweden had 30 Covid-19 deaths.

It's actually 21 currently for those two weeks, though subject to change (going by experience around 10% or so likely)
(source - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa )

charlie14

the incredible pudding wrote: »

It's actually 21 currently for those two weeks, though subject to change (going by experience around 10% or so likely)
(source - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa )

Link did not work, but I was going by biko`s post here for the two weeks prior to Friday of 30.

OldRio

Sweden only report new figures 1pm Irish time Tuesday to Friday and just announced 1,199 cases and 5 deaths, their highest since June.

the incredible pudding

ziggyman17 wrote: »

cases in Stockholm on the rise, talks of a incoming lockdown,

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/oARx8R/tecken-pa-att-smittan-okar-i-stockholm

Restrictions would probably mean in this case recommendations for people to limit domestic travel, banning all visits to elderly homes again and a delay in the proposal increase of public gatherings in certain places that's meant to come into place in October iirc. (Aftonbladet is a total rag btw so sensational headlines are commonplace). I wouldn't say there's much risk of a lockdown here at all given how bad it was in April and nothing happened then.

I was on the metro here last week around rush hour and it wasn't comfortable tbh. Usually it's a bit more spread out but here strangers were sitting beside each other. There was still space to stand at a reasonable distance from people but there's definitely a risk that people will become less cautious.

Ginger n Lemon

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Restrictions would probably mean in this case recommendations for people to limit domestic travel, banning all visits to elderly homes again and a delay in the proposal increase of public gatherings in certain places that's meant to come into place in October iirc. (Aftonbladet is a total rag btw so sensational headlines are commonplace). I wouldn't say there's much risk of a lockdown here at all given how bad it was in April and nothing happened then.

I was on the metro here last week around rush hour and it wasn't comfortable tbh. Usually it's a bit more spread out but here strangers were sitting beside each other. There was still space to stand at a reasonable distance from people but there's definitely a risk that people will become less cautious.

Thank you for letting us know. We have this with all of our Irish newspapers. In fact if you read Irish times, you'd think covid is waging world war 3 on Ireland.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I haven't figured out how to post images on here, but, 2019 appears to have been milder for Sweden excess deaths than Norway. Sweden only hit a substantial increase for one week of 2019 and that was in the middle of the summer. Most of the rest of the year they were at or below baseline whereas Norway were at or above baseline.

One thing I notice too is the flu appears to kill a reasonable number of young people in any given year but that declined in winter 2019/20.

But the graphs don't really lie.

2018 was a very severe year for excess deaths across Europe.
While 2019 was a very mild year.

So possibly 2018 killed a lot of people who you'd expect to die in 2019. And a lot of people died in 2020 who should have died in 2019.

It being a very mild flu year in Europe would tend to back up Norway`s assertion that the large disparity in Covid-19 deaths between themselves and Sweden, or indeed between Sweden and the other two Scandinavian countries, cannot be explained away for that reason.

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

Link did not work, but I was going by biko`s post here for the two weeks prior to Friday of 30.

Sorry, had added in a rogue ')' which is fixed now.
I would wager Biko was making the common mistake of looking at the total figures.

OldRio wrote:

Sweden only report new figures 1pm Irish time Tuesday to Friday and just announced 1,199 cases and 5 deaths, their highest since June.

Again the death number for from Friday - Monday was 2 so far (not to diminish them but the others were retrospective deaths). Cases being on the increase is not a good trend though, gone from the low of 200 avg per day to last weeks ~ 300 avg per day. There's clearly a very long way to go with this. Secondary schools (Gymnasiums) and Universities being open again will all factor I think.

charlie14

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Restrictions would probably mean in this case recommendations for people to limit domestic travel, banning all visits to elderly homes again and a delay in the proposal increase of public gatherings in certain places that's meant to come into place in October iirc. (Aftonbladet is a total rag btw so sensational headlines are commonplace). I wouldn't say there's much risk of a lockdown here at all given how bad it was in April and nothing happened then.

I was on the metro here last week around rush hour and it wasn't comfortable tbh. Usually it's a bit more spread out but here strangers were sitting beside each other. There was still space to stand at a reasonable distance from people but there's definitely a risk that people will become less cautious.

I saw that care homes were meant to open for visitors on October 1st.
Tbh, in light of what Sweden has gone through as well as Ireland in relation to care homes I thought it tempting fate madness.

tobefrank321

OldRio wrote: »

Sweden only report new figures 1pm Irish time Tuesday to Friday and just announced 1,199 cases and 5 deaths, their highest since June.

Those cases are for Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. So about 300 per day. They seem to be slightly increasing but per capita are well behind us. We reported nearly 400 on Sunday alone.

5 deaths - again for 4 days. Just over 1 a day. About the same as us.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

It being a very mild flu year in Europe would tend to back up Norway`s assertion that the large disparity in Covid-19 deaths between themselves and Sweden, or indeed between Sweden and the other two Scandinavian countries, cannot be explained away for that reason.

The entirety of 2019 was a mild year in Sweden which is backed up by 2000 fewer deaths than an average year.

I'll have to go digging for the 2019 total deaths in Norway vs an average year, but I'd guess based on the charts it was similar to a normal year.

But Sweden would appear to have had 2000 people who would have been expected to die in 2019 who lived to 2020.

I'd imagine it would be similar in several other countries going on the charts. 2019 does appear to have been a mild year across Europe.