Sweden avoiding lockdown

tobefrank321

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Charlie I cant respond to all of your nonsense, but that in bold - really? Do you not see they have 1 person die with covid on average per day there now?

Or, are you adopting the idiotic approach below?

"Sweden report high deaths - their strategy doesnt work its a disaster!"

"Sweden report no deaths - their numbers cant be trusted!"

:rolleyes:

PS deaths up to 14th Sept have been published. If average weekly deaths over the last 6 weeks continue for rest of the year they will finish 2020 with less deaths than 2019. And thats when, you will have seriously difficult time reading your posts from 2020 about the Swedish strategy.

That would be exceptional if it happens as in 2019 they had one of the lowest number of deaths in years. However, I suspect deaths will ramp up in winter unless they have another mild flu season like last winter which is certainly possible as social distancing will be in place.

charlie14

ziggyman17 wrote: »

cases in Stockholm on the rise, talks of a incoming lockdown,

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/oARx8R/tecken-pa-att-smittan-okar-i-stockholm

I see Reuters are also reporting on it as well. 1,200 new cases and 5 deaths since Friday that the Swedish Public Health Authority say cannot be solely explained by the increase in testing.

The main concern appears to be Stockholm with Tegnell reported as saying that they will have a discussion with the local authority whether measure need to be introduced to reduce the spread of infections there.
With Stockholm being Sweden`s epicenter it would tend to contradict a lot of this speculation on acquired immunity.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The entirety of 2019 was a mild year in Sweden which is backed up by 2000 fewer deaths than an average year.

I'll have to go digging for the 2019 total deaths in Norway vs an average year, but I'd guess based on the charts it was similar to a normal year.

But Sweden would appear to have had 2000 people who would have been expected to die in 2019 who lived to 2020.

I'd imagine it would be similar in several other countries going on the charts. 2019 does appear to have been a mild year across Europe.

As I said earlier, with it being a mild flu season in Europe the same would be true for the other Scandinavian countries and would back Norway`s contention that it does not explain the disparity in deaths which some in Sweden were claiming.
Especially with such little difference between all four with those aged 65 and over.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

As I said earlier, with it being a mild flu season in Europe the same would be true for the other Scandinavian countries and would back Norway`s contention that it does not explain the disparity in deaths which some in Sweden were claiming.
Especially with such little difference between all four with those aged 65 and over.

Yes but you also have to look back at 2019 as well.

And excess deaths appear to have been below average in Sweden, whereas likely at or above average in Norway.

blowitupref

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Those cases are for Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. So about 300 per day. They seem to be slightly increasing but per capita are well behind us. We reported nearly 400 on Sunday alone.

5 deaths - again for 4 days. Just over 1 a day. About the same as us.

Comparisons needs to be with neighbours Norway, Finland when looking at how Sweden are currently doing.

Ireland are located in area of Europe with a 2nd surge and have England as next door neighbours.

growleaves

blowitupref wrote: »

Comparisons needs to be with neighbours Norway, Finland when looking at how Sweden are currently doing.

No they don't need to be. While apologists for lockdown insist on this rhetorical rule, nobody has to follow it unless they choose to.

SeaBreezes

https://twitter.com/DrKatrin_Rabiei/status/1307742167570538496?s=19

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Yes but you also have to look back at 2019 as well.

And excess deaths appear to have been below average in Sweden, whereas likely at or above average in Norway.

The flu season doesn`t start on January 1st. It is generally 3 months either side, so it was the same flu season for all of Scandinavia.
Unless the other 3 had massive deaths from that season`s flu it would come nowhere close to some in Sweden`s claim that the large disparity in Covid-19 can somehow be explained away due to a mild flu season that was common to all of Europe.

blowitupref

growleaves wrote: »

No they don't need to be. While apologists for lockdown insist on this rhetorical rule, nobody has to follow it unless they choose to.

It's restrictions to stop a spread growing higher and higher and as reported already Stockholm will likely have some restrictions applied.

Some other counties had real lockdowns with military involved making sure people follow such rules. I'd like to hope such actions aren't required in Ireland.

PHG

charlie14 wrote: »

I see Reuters are also reporting on it as well. 1,200 new cases and 5 deaths since Friday that the Swedish Public Health Authority say cannot be solely explained by the increase in testing.

The main concern appears to be Stockholm with Tegnell reported as saying that they will have a discussion with the local authority whether measure need to be introduced to reduce the spread of infections there.
With Stockholm being Sweden`s epicenter it would tend to contradict a lot of this speculation on acquired immunity.

I think I may have said it here before but it's very obvious why. Stockholm (I live here) is a ghost town in late June/July and early August. They leave and go on holiday to their holiday homes and to Europe.

The last of the holiday makers came back about 2 weeks ago so numbers increasing make sense.

As pointed by a poster above, a large proportion of over 30s (40%+) live on their own which would help to slow down the spread significantly, but the bars in town are busy enough at present too with everyone back.

That said, they are not like at home where you could be 2 or 3 deep to get a drink, they drink about 1 drink an hour and they don't do rounds, so it is very orderly in the pubs (most of the time).

growleaves

blowitupref wrote: »

It's restrictions to stop a spread growing higher and higher and as reported already Stockholm will likely have some restrictions applied.

Some other counties had real lockdowns with military involved making sure people follow such rules. I'd like to hope such actions aren't required in Ireland.

"Gee I sure hope we don't need the military to step in and point guns at people to round them up but cases are on the rise"

blowitupref

growleaves wrote: »

"Gee I sure hope we don't need the military to step in and point guns at people to round them up but cases are on the rise"

It's a expectation of not needing such actions more than a hope if that makes you happy.

JJayoo

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Fine. Lockdown it is. Including likely national lockdown when current ICU spare capacity is used up.

I will let you do the maths when that is, based on current trends.

Like a kid throwing a tantrum, did you walk out of the room and slam the door after you posted?

charlie14

PHG wrote: »

I think I may have said it here before but it's very obvious why. Stockholm (I live here) is a ghost town in late June/July and early August. They leave and go on holiday to their holiday homes and to Europe.

The last of the holiday makers came back about 2 weeks ago so numbers increasing make sense.

As pointed by a poster above, a large proportion of over 30s (40%+) live on their own which would help to slow down the spread significantly, but the bars in town are busy enough at present too with everyone back.

That said, they are not like at home where you could be 2 or 3 deep to get a drink, they drink about 1 drink an hour and they don't do rounds, so it is very orderly in the pubs (most of the time).

In theory in Ireland people should not be 2 or 3 deep to get a drink as it is only supposed to be table service, distancing, and no moving around or going to the toilet without wearing a mask. But then that is theory. Reality in Ireland is often many degrees removed.


Interesting that you mention Stockholm and holidays.
I see another area that there are concerns for over rising numbers is Dalarna County.
From what I`ve read Dalarna County it seem this is an area where other Swedes holiday and have holiday homes, especially from southern Sweden. I imagine it is feasible that the rise in numbers there is not unrelated ?

tobefrank321

JJayoo wrote: »

Like a kid throwing a tantrum, did you walk out of the room and slam the door after you posted?

Nope just pointed out some facts.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

As I said earlier, with it being a mild flu season in Europe the same would be true for the other Scandinavian countries and would back Norway`s contention that it does not explain the disparity in deaths which some in Sweden were claiming.
Especially with such little difference between all four with those aged 65 and over.

Norway has had very stable death numbers for the last 5 years.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/611743/number-of-deaths-in-norway/

2019 40,683
2018 40,840
2017 40,774
2016 40,726
2015 40,727

Sweden on the otherhand had a big decline in deaths in 2019.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

2019 88,766
2018 92,185
2017 91,972
2016 90,982
2015 90,907

Seems obvious deaths were hugely down in Sweden in 2019 whereas they were as usual in Norway. 2000 more people survived 2019 in Sweden than a normal year. And its very likely most of these were elderly or in other vulnerable categories.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Norway has had very stable death numbers for the last 5 years.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/611743/number-of-deaths-in-norway/



Sweden on the otherhand had a big decline in deaths in 2019.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/



Seems obvious deaths were hugely down in Sweden in 2019 whereas they were as usual in Norway. 2000 more people survived 2019 in Sweden than a normal year. And its very likely most of these were elderly or in other vulnerable categories.

Unless you know the exact numbers in both Sweden and Norway, (or indeed the other two Nordic countries),who passed due to flu, like Norway I would not see how it supports the Swedish contention that the disparities can be explained away by flu.
Especially when you consider deaths per 100,000 due to Covid-19.

Sweden 57.33
Norway 5.01.


Even outside of all that, I would not see the argument that because people may have possibly survived flu in one year it is somehow acceptable that they pass due to Covid-19 the following year

patnor1011

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Norway has had very stable death numbers for the last 5 years.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/611743/number-of-deaths-in-norway/



Sweden on the otherhand had a big decline in deaths in 2019.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/



Seems obvious deaths were hugely down in Sweden in 2019 whereas they were as usual in Norway. 2000 more people survived 2019 in Sweden than a normal year. And its very likely most of these were elderly or in other vulnerable categories.

2000 less out of 91000 isnt huge.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

Even outside of all that, I would not see the argument that because people may have possibly survived flu in one year it is somehow acceptable that they pass due to Covid-19 the following year

Charlie, I know you've posted that at 1.26 AM, but did you mean to say that because they've survived flu in 2019, they arent allowed to die off covid-19? Its not acceptable?

Sometimes when I read into your posts, I get a feeling you think people are immortal, especially when it comes to flu and old age.

plodder

patnor1011 wrote: »

2000 less out of 91000 isnt huge.

It's about 40% of the excess deaths this year.

plodder

Ireland should allow controlled spread of Covid-19 among under-60s, Swedish expert to tell committee

Great that they are listening to alternative views, but are the members of the committee really qualified to ask the right questions? They will listen politely. The experts who hold the opposite view won't be there and it will all be forgotten by tomorrow.

is_that_so

Sweden now looking at local restrictions in Stockholm.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/22/stockholm-mulls-local-restrictions-worrying-infection-signs/

is_that_so

plodder wrote: »

Ireland should allow controlled spread of Covid-19 among under-60s, Swedish expert to tell committee

Great that they are listening to alternative views, but are the members of the committee really qualified to ask the right questions? They will listen politely. The experts who hold the opposite view won't be there and it will all be forgotten by tomorrow.

Listening politely is the right approach. That guy is not prone to listening to alternative views anyway and has some very strident opinions on the effectiveness of restrictions.

JimmyVik

plodder wrote: »

Ireland should allow controlled spread of Covid-19 among under-60s, Swedish expert to tell committee

Great that they are listening to alternative views, but are the members of the committee really qualified to ask the right questions? They will listen politely. The experts who hold the opposite view won't be there and it will all be forgotten by tomorrow.

who is first

patnor1011

plodder wrote: »

It's about 40% of the excess deaths this year.

Exactly. That means that one set of numbers are presented as a small drop but if the same number manifest in the current case we are being told it is horrendous increase.

tobefrank321

Take a look who is high risk from flu complications.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/index.htm

Adults 65 Years and Older

Pregnant Women

Young Children

Asthma

Heart Disease & Stroke

Diabetes

HIV/AIDS

Cancer

Children with Neurologic Conditions

Chronic Kidney Disease

The crossover with covid 19 is remarkable. Apart from young children and pregnant women, all the rest would be also be considered high risk for covid 19. So people in this group would benefit from a mild flu season, but would then be at risk from covid 19.

(I'm not advocating covid 19 should be let rip on these groups, they should be shielded until the epidemic is over)

PHG

charlie14 wrote: »

In theory in Ireland people should not be 2 or 3 deep to get a drink as it is only supposed to be table service, distancing, and no moving around or going to the toilet without wearing a mask. But then that is theory. Reality in Ireland is often many degrees removed.


Interesting that you mention Stockholm and holidays.
I see another area that there are concerns for over rising numbers is Dalarna County.
From what I`ve read Dalarna County it seem this is an area where other Swedes holiday and have holiday homes, especially from southern Sweden. I imagine it is feasible that the rise in numbers there is not unrelated ?

As most left Stockholm, so much so that restaurants close for 3/4 weeks in July here, so don't come plan a trip here at that time of year , and would cause a spread to other areas of the country.

That is pure assumption but seems to make sense.

As for restrictions it would seem odd to bring anything note worthy in as once the darkness sets in in the next 5/6 weeks here the place becomes quieter than normal in the evenings but may be that people are closer in shops, cafes etc.

SeaBreezes

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Take a look who is high risk from flu complications.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/index.htm



The crossover with covid 19 is remarkable. Apart from young children and pregnant women, all the rest would be also be considered high risk for covid 19. So people in this group would benefit from a mild flu season, but would then be at risk from covid 19.

(I'm not advocating covid 19 should be let rip on these groups, they should be shielded until the epidemic is over)

But covid19 is more deadly. Leaves long lasting fatigue on 15% of those affected. Can leave heart, lung, and kidney issues, even in asymptomatic cases. causes blood clots and strokes and these too can linger and cause issues after initial infection.

It ages your.Tcells, its why older people are more affected. But aging Tcells in younger people.STILL not good. Makes them more vulnerable.to.other infetions.

And its likely we can get reinfected every year.

70 previuosly healthy kids in sweden with kawaski syndrome now.
And they didnt save their economy, and they dont have herd immunity and theyre going back.into lockdown.
They 'shielded' the vulnerable and have 6,000 dead (and they dont count anyone who dies after 30 days, and they removed 3,000 tests that were too sensitive)

150,000 with long term covid. While shielding the vulnerable. Worked well didnt it?

Its not the flu.
Theres WAY more going on with this virus and we are only figuring it.out.

ZeroCovid is the best approach economically, and health wise. Look aroind the world, the countries that stamped it out quickly and kept tight control on it.are thriving.

tobefrank321

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Charlie, I know you've posted that at 1.26 AM, but did you mean to say that because they've survived flu in 2019, they arent allowed to die off covid-19? Its not acceptable?

Sometimes when I read into your posts, I get a feeling you think people are immortal, especially when it comes to flu and old age.

There's a big overlap of people who you'd expect to die from flu and covid 19. They probably wouldn't die in the same numbers, but if there was a mild flu season last winter, some people who avoided that would die of covid. And in countries like Italy who got covid early, some people who would die of flu died of covid 19 or possibly had both at the same time.

Many old people are on borrowed time sadly, and if one thing doesn't get them, something else will.

tobefrank321

SeaBreezes wrote: »

But covid19 is more deadly. Leaves long lasting fatigue on 15% of those affected. Can leave heart, lung, and kidney issues, even in asymptomatic cases. causes blood clots and strokes and these too can linger and cause issues after initial infection.

It ages your.Tcells, its why older people are more affected. But aging Tcells in younger people.STILL not good. Makes them more vulnerable.to.other infetions.

And its likely we can get reinfected every year.

70 previuosly healthy kids in sweden with kawaski syndrome now.
And they didnt save their economy, and they dont have herd immunity and theyre going back.into lockdown.
They 'shielded' the vulnerable and have 6,000 dead (and they dont count anyone who dies after 30 days, and they removed 3,000 tests that were too sensitive)

150,000 with long term covid. While shielding the vulnerable. Worked well didnt it?

Its not the flu.
Theres WAY more going on with this virus and we are only figuring it.out.

ZeroCovid is the best approach economically, and health wise. Look aroind the world, the countries that stamped it out quickly and kept tight control on it.are thriving.

I don't know if you are accidently or deliberately scaremongering here. You disagree with the Sweden approach, fair enough, but there's no need to exaggerate some things.

1. Long Covid - 3-6 months is not really long term. 5-10 years is long term.

2. Ages your T-Cells? Any link for this?

3. Reinfected every year? Based on what? Declining antibodies? Many people now have zero antibodies but still haven't been reinfected. So obviously some other form of immunity is working.

4. kawaski syndrome from covid? I thought that was debunked. You'll have to provide a source including how serious it is for them.

5. 150,000 with long term covid? Source? Again, long term is 5-10 years, not months. A number of high profile celebrities and sports stars suffered from covid 19. Almost all are now back at work. Novak Djockavic was favourite to win the US open and won a tournament a week or two ago! Some of the basketball players in the US have never played better after infection. All the soccer players are back. Mikel Arteta back managing Arsenal, one of the most stressful jobs there is!

6. Luke O'Neill pointed out recently that the death rate is particularly high in care homes and among the immigrant population in Sweden. Care homes we had the same problem even with lockdown. Immigrant populations tend to live in multi generational households. But its likely most are now immune.

7. Why would anyone count someone who dies after 30 days? You have to cut off dates at some stage. If I had flu 2 months ago but died of something else today, would you say I died of flu? The UK also don't count deaths after 30 days. We probably do, it needs clarification.

8. They removed 3000 false positives. You'll have to provide more details on this if you believe it was something else.

9. Zero covid is not achievable in Ireland and many other open countries. We almost got to zero covid but it sounds like a few people came in from abroad and headed into their meat factory workplace and started the whole thing up again. Zero covid is only possible with NZ type forced quarantining at hotels. It would also need the same policy from NI.