Sweden avoiding lockdown

plodder

Just heard a bit of Philip Boucher Hayes' interview with Johan Giesecke. How did he get away with making such a rubbish argument that Ireland has a higher population density than Sweden? Very few people live in Sweden's interior and in fact it's a much more urbanized country than Ireland (more comparable with the UK than us). Sweden 83% urbanised versus Ireland 63%.

It's like we are going out of our way to not understand why it is working for them.

kippy

plodder wrote: »

Just heard a bit of Philip Boucher Hayes' interview with Johan Giesecke. How did he get away with making such a rubbish argument that Ireland has a higher population density than Sweden? Very few people live in Sweden's interior and in fact it's a much more urbanized country than Ireland (more comparable with the UK than us). Sweden 83% urbanised versus Ireland 63%.

It's like we are going out of our way to not understand why it is working for them.

There has to be some reason the country is not absolutely riddled with the disease. And the numbers are high. But the logic would state that if there are people in close contact with each other the disease will spread. This is uniquivicol.

Ok, they have their restrictions, be but not as tight as restrictions elsewhere. So why?
Is it the fact that the vast majority of the population are taking the restrictions seriously and following them to the letter? Are people implementing their own restrictions?

Is it a country where there are less social interactions to begin with?

These are all important things to understand IF one is to make the argument that the Swedish restrictions and model is all that is to be followed.

Because it is obvious here that when people are left near enough to their own devices the disease spreads more than when heavier restrictions are in place.

cnocbui

Nearly 75,000 people could die from non-Covid causes as a result of lockdown, according to devastating official figures buried in a 188-page document.

The startling research, presented to the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), will further increase pressure on Boris Johnson to hold back on introducing further coronavirus restrictions.

The document reveals 16,000 people died as a result of the chaos in hospitals and care homes in March and April alone.

It estimates a further 26,000 will lose their lives within a year if people continue to stay away from A&E and the problems in social care persist.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8774141/Coronavirus-UK-Lockdown-kill-75-000-thats-OFFICIAL-projection.html

Sweden looking like a shining light whose intensity increases with every passing day.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Sweden and France as case studies are very hopeful. More cases less deaths unless there are other factors worsening the condition of covid19 then things could be bad.

So far that is the situation in France, Sweden and some others.More cases less deaths.
With these new cases (a term I am loath to use because there is growing evidence about the long term effects on those that have recovered) if "the right people" are those infected and this virus has stayed true to form then hopefully that will remain the case.

The one thing that would worry me though is that these new confirmed cases are a sudden rise and most likely it will be a few weeks before we know what deaths if any they cause.

If we were only to look at both Sweden and France in relation of mortality to confirmed cases, with them being at 6% and 5% respectively, then the outlook would not be great. But like ourselves, those figures are highly likely skewed due to poor shielding of the elderly and vulnerable at the outset, so hopefully everyone has learned from that.
One thing I would be concerned off with regards to Sweden, is they recently announced the opening of care homes to visitors from October 1st and I`m not sure that has been changed. If not, then not a good idea imo.

One thing I would find positive of this latest rise in cases with no immediate corresponding sudden rise in deaths.
Whatever is going on in Mexico from that link you posted of deaths in the 35-55 age group there, the same, so far at least, does not appear to be happening in Europe. Those deaths, many with no underlying conditions, occurred very shortly after being confirmed as having Covid-19.

SeaBreezes

https://twitter.com/JoannaTeglund/status/1309835182560686081?s=19

charlie14

kippy wrote: »

There has to be some reason the country is not absolutely riddled with the disease. And the numbers are high. But the logic would state that if there are people in close contact with each other the disease will spread. This is uniquivicol.

Ok, they have their restrictions, be but not as tight as restrictions elsewhere. So why?
Is it the fact that the vast majority of the population are taking the restrictions seriously and following them to the letter? Are people implementing their own restrictions?

Is it a country where there are less social interactions to begin with?

These are all important things to understand IF one is to make the argument that the Swedish restrictions and model is all that is to be followed.

Because it is obvious here that when people are left near enough to their own devices the disease spreads more than when heavier restrictions are in place.

From Eurostat 2016.
Sweden had over 50% single household occupancy. Ireland 22%.
When you consider transmissions, especially those related to family clusters, then such a high level of single occupancy households has to be an advantage,

dubrov

charlie14 wrote:

From Eurostat 2016. Sweden had over 50% single household occupancy. Ireland 22%. When you consider transmissions, especially those related to family clusters, then such a high level of single occupancy households has to be an advantage,

But why have deaths and cases dropped so much in Sweden? The occupancy rate hasn't changed in the last 6 months.

Have there been more effective restrictions or in place or is the virus running out of steam?

ArthurDayne

kippy wrote: »

There has to be some reason the country is not absolutely riddled with the disease. And the numbers are high. But the logic would state that if there are people in close contact with each other the disease will spread. This is uniquivicol.

Ok, they have their restrictions, be but not as tight as restrictions elsewhere. So why?
Is it the fact that the vast majority of the population are taking the restrictions seriously and following them to the letter? Are people implementing their own restrictions?

Is it a country where there are less social interactions to begin with?

These are all important things to understand IF one is to make the argument that the Swedish restrictions and model is all that is to be followed.

Because it is obvious here that when people are left near enough to their own devices the disease spreads more than when heavier restrictions are in place.

It’s coming to back to that old term of sustainability though. The Swedish model has relied on a consistent message, with their restrictions not really changing much once implemented. What you have therefore is that people are given a consistent narrative on what they should do, combined with the fact the lesser restriction means that this narrative can be sustained without eventually succumbing to lockdown weariness. In that way, you can make people change their behaviour without necessarily engendering a sense of resentment or tiredness.

Contrast that to here, where the original message of “flatten the curve” (note: NOT eliminate Covid) helped gear the national consciousness towards this short term goal. The lockdown and restrictions seemed palatable to many because we would hunker down, the curve would flatten, and by then the State would have ramped up healthcare capacity and we would all be able to return to a form of normality with the healthcare system capable of dealing with the crisis. Now here we are, not really understanding the end-goal underlying the message. Are we just in a constant effort of keeping cases down that we must sustain until a vaccine arrives? Are we trying to get to ZeroCovid ? Are we just flattening curves only to watch them inevitably rise again once we start to re-open?

charlie14

dubrov wrote: »

But why have deaths and cases dropped so much in Sweden? The occupancy rate hasn't changed in the last 6 months.

Have there been more effective restrictions or in place or is the virus running out of steam?

Who knows. Low occupancy has more than likely kept numbers lower over the last 6 months than they would otherwise have been, and may be doing so now with the new rise in cases.
Restrictions appear to vary depending on the regions. Whether that is a factor, I have no idea.

What I found of interest in relation to the recent rise in cases, from media reports the main reasons for concern were the rise in numbers in relation to Stockholm and Dalarna.
Dalarna is an area where many southern Swede`s holiday.
It does raise the possibility that the low numbers in Stockholm during the summer holidays, and the low numbers in Dalarna prior to that, are due to those from Stockholm bringing the virus with them, thus the rise in numbers there, and now that holidays are over, they have brought it back with them with the subsequent rise in Stckholm`s numbers.
Speculation on my part, but I would suspect a correlation is a strong possibility.

From my understanding the number of new cases from the 22nd to the 25th is around 1,500.
Relative to their population that rise in numbers so far is not that significant, but they put a bit of a dent imo in the acquired immunity argument. Especially in relation to Stockholm with it being Sweden`s epicenter of infections.

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

So far that is the situation in France, Sweden and some others.More cases less deaths.
With these new cases (a term I am loath to use because there is growing evidence about the long term effects on those that have recovered) if "the right people" are those infected and this virus has stayed true to form then hopefully that will remain the case.

The one thing that would worry me though is that these new confirmed cases are a sudden rise and most likely it will be a few weeks before we know what deaths if any they cause.

If we were only to look at both Sweden and France in relation of mortality to confirmed cases, with them being at 6% and 5% respectively, then the outlook would not be great. But like ourselves, those figures are highly likely skewed due to poor shielding of the elderly and vulnerable at the outset, so hopefully everyone has learned from that.
One thing I would be concerned off with regards to Sweden, is they recently announced the opening of care homes to visitors from October 1st and I`m not sure that has been changed. If not, then not a good idea imo.

One thing I would find positive of this latest rise in cases with no immediate corresponding sudden rise in deaths.
Whatever is going on in Mexico from that link you posted of deaths in the 35-55 age group there, the same, so far at least, does not appear to be happening in Europe. Those deaths, many with no underlying conditions, occurred very shortly after being confirmed as having Covid-19.

Well there are some obvious things in Mexico etc that did not happen to the same degree in other countries such as Slovakia.

If other complicating factors are causal, we may have an uptick in deaths in November. Hopefully not.

kippy

ArthurDayne wrote: »

It’s coming to back to that old term of sustainability though. The Swedish model has relied on a consistent message, with their restrictions not really changing much once implemented. What you have therefore is that people are given a consistent narrative on what they should do, combined with the fact the lesser restriction means that this narrative can be sustained without eventually succumbing to lockdown weariness. In that way, you can make people change their behaviour without necessarily engendering a sense of resentment or tiredness.

Contrast that to here, where the original message of “flatten the curve” (note: NOT eliminate Covid) helped gear the national consciousness towards this short term goal. The lockdown and restrictions seemed palatable to many because we would hunker down, the curve would flatten, and by then the State would have ramped up healthcare capacity and we would all be able to return to a form of normality with the healthcare system capable of dealing with the crisis. Now here we are, not really understanding the end-goal underlying the message. Are we just in a constant effort of keeping cases down that we must sustain until a vaccine arrives? Are we trying to get to ZeroCovid ? Are we just flattening curves only to watch them inevitably rise again once we start to re-open?

Your last comment there is the interesting one to me.
Things are "relatively" open in Sweden according to many. Why do we start to see rises when things start to re-open? (ie would a scenario of similiar to sweden here not mean higher cases than there are now overall)
Or is it simply enough people here are not following the general guidelines that we have, that appear to be relatively well followed in Sweden?
( I am not saying Sweden are doing things right - just trying to make some kind of logic)

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Well there are some obvious things in Mexico etc that did not happen to the same degree in other countries such as Slovakia.

If other complicating factors are causal, we may have an uptick in deaths in November. Hopefully not.

I agree. If there is to be an increase in deaths from the present rise in number it will most likely not be evident until then, but as you say. hopefully not.

The current rise in cases appear to be the same strain of the virus. Or hopefully perhaps even a weakened strain.

I don`t know what, if any research, has gone into the virus in Mexico, but it is very unusual to see those kind of mortality figures for that 35-55 age group. Especially the numbers that had no under-lying conditions.
I seem to remember some time back a poster on one of these Covid threads remarking about something similar. I think it may have been in New York, but again I`m not sure.

Ginger n Lemon

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8774141/Coronavirus-UK-Lockdown-kill-75-000-thats-OFFICIAL-projection.html

Sweden looking like a shining light whose intensity increases with every passing day.

Yes.

But I think some posters here still dont seem to understand which strategy is superior. Some people just dont change opinions or views. They ll go through years of lockdowns supporting the government supporting the notion that you can lockdown a country and save lives from covid while simultaneously destroying and killing lives from other causes, latter causing more deaths but as its not announced on RTE they think our lockdown strategy is doing great :pac:

kippy

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Yes.

But I think some posters here still dont seem to understand which strategy is superior. Some people just dont change opinions or views. They ll go through years of lockdowns supporting the government supporting the notion that you can lockdown a country and save lives from covid while simultaneously destroying and killing lives from other causes, latter causing more deaths but as its not announced on RTE they think our lockdown strategy is doing great :pac:

And some people need to be convinced that the same approach in Sweden would work here or indeed that the approach actually works in Sweden.
From what I have seen, I cannot see how the Swedish approach would have us in a better position now than we are in.....

Ginger n Lemon

kippy wrote: »

And some people need to be convinced that the same approach in Sweden would work here or indeed that the approach actually works in Sweden.
From what I have seen, I cannot see how the Swedish approach would have us in a better position now than we are in.....

Should have gone to specsavers.

Ginger n Lemon

kippy wrote: »

And some people need to be convinced that the same approach in Sweden would work here or indeed that the approach actually works in Sweden.
From what I have seen, I cannot see how the Swedish approach would have us in a better position now than we are in.....

What are you talking about? Are people protesting on the streets in Sweden looking for different covid approach?

because they sure are protesting even in bloody Donegal looking for different covid strategy approach

More than 100 people gather in Co Donegal for anti-Covid-19 restrictions rally
Protest in Donegal just hours after Phase 3 restrictions introduced

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/more-than-100-people-gather-in-co-donegal-for-anti-covid-19-restrictions-rally-1.4365614

is it not obvious our approach is NOT working? bloody Donegal protest.. to be followed by Dublin protest with thousands gathering on 3rd of October..... Do Sweden have PRO restrictions protests? I thought so.

kippy

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

What are you talking about? Are people protesting on the streets in Sweden looking for different covid approach?

because they sure are protesting even in bloody Donegal looking for different covid strategy approach

More than 100 people gather in Co Donegal for anti-Covid-19 restrictions rally
Protest in Donegal just hours after Phase 3 restrictions introduced

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/more-than-100-people-gather-in-co-donegal-for-anti-covid-19-restrictions-rally-1.4365614

is it not obvious our approach is NOT working? bloody Donegal protest.. to be followed by Dublin protest with thousands gathering on 3rd of October..... Do Sweden have PRO restrictions protests? I thought so.

Protesters arent really a signal of anything tbh.


The reason I am saying that I cannot see how the Swedish approach would work here is be side we've had pretty much the Swedish approach for the past 2 months.

kippy

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Should have gone to specsavers.

We've had the Swedish approach pretty much for the past few months. Look what's happening.....

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Should have gone to specsavers.

I don`t see where this superior strategy is evident.

Sweden have 60% more Codid-19 deaths per capita.
Economical their GDP for the last quarter was 40% inferior.
Their confirmed cases are rising. Especially in Stockholm, their epicenter,which has to raise questions on claims which were being made by some on herd immunity.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

What are you talking about? Are people protesting on the streets in Sweden looking for different covid approach?

because they sure are protesting even in bloody Donegal looking for different covid strategy approach

More than 100 people gather in Co Donegal for anti-Covid-19 restrictions rally
Protest in Donegal just hours after Phase 3 restrictions introduced

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/more-than-100-people-gather-in-co-donegal-for-anti-covid-19-restrictions-rally-1.4365614

is it not obvious our approach is NOT working? bloody Donegal protest.. to be followed by Dublin protest with thousands gathering on 3rd of October..... Do Sweden have PRO restrictions protests? I thought so.

LOL. You had to get down very low to scrap the bottom of that particular barrel.
100 protester out of a population of 160,000.

I know Donegal very well.
You would get a bigger turnout for a rally to shoot the Dalia Lama.

Spiderman0081

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t see where this superior strategy is evident.

Sweden have 60% more Codid-19 deaths per capita.
Economical their GDP for the last quarter was 40% inferior.
Their confirmed cases are rising. Especially in Stockholm, their epicenter,which has to raise questions on claims which were being made by some on herd immunity.

Would you please, for the sake of not boring everyone to death, entertain the idea of letting go your hatred of the term “herd immunity”
I live in Stockholm. If I didn’t have the habit of wanting to read what people’s thoughts are in Ireland I would never hear the words herd immunity mentioned, in English or in Swedish. Not a single person I know in my day to day life has now or ever talked about the term you are so obviously obsessed with. I eat out for lunch every single day at work. I am happy to contribute to an industry that is in need of help. People don’t eat out or drink at coffee shops because it helps contribute to the herd immunity strategy. I and my colleagues do so for the sake of normalcy and knowing by doing so it keeps businesses ticking over.

is_that_so

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

Would you please, for the sake of not boring everyone to death, entertain the idea of letting go your hatred of the term “herd immunity”
I live in Stockholm. If I didn’t have the habit of wanting to read what people’s thoughts are in Ireland I would never hear the words herd immunity mentioned, in English or in Swedish. Not a single person I know in my day to day life has now or ever talked about the term you are so obviously obsessed with. I eat out for lunch every single day at work. I am happy to contribute to an industry that is in need of help. People don’t eat out or drink at coffee shops because it helps contribute to the herd immunity strategy. I and my colleagues do so for the sake of normalcy and knowing by doing so it keeps businesses ticking over.

It's less about what normal people say than the overall strategy. Tegnell has mentioned it more than once and was definitely aiming for it for quite a while.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200813/revealed-swedish-health-officials-emails-about-herd-immunity-and-schools

Spiderman0081

is_that_so wrote: »

It's less about what normal people say than the overall strategy. Tegnell has mentioned it more than once and was definitely aiming for it for quite a while.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200813/revealed-swedish-health-officials-emails-about-herd-immunity-and-schools

Every death is a tragedy. There are countless variables as to why someone gets infected and unfortunately may eventually die with/from covid.
But the reality is that at the “epicenter” Stockholm, the lethality of this virus in the age groups 0-69 is 0.1%.
This 0.1% includes those who have died “with” covid and with other serious underlying conditions.

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

I agree. If there is to be an increase in deaths from the present rise in number it will most likely not be evident until then, but as you say. hopefully not.

The current rise in cases appear to be the same strain of the virus. Or hopefully perhaps even a weakened strain.

I don`t know what, if any research, has gone into the virus in Mexico, but it is very unusual to see those kind of mortality figures for that 35-55 age group. Especially the numbers that had no under-lying conditions.
I seem to remember some time back a poster on one of these Covid threads remarking about something similar. I think it may have been in New York, but again I`m not sure.

There is a difference in how under 60s are treated in Mexico in a normal year. Correlation doesn't imply causation etc.

is_that_so

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

Every death is a tragedy. There are countless variables as to why someone gets infected and unfortunately may eventually die with/from covid.
But the reality is that at the “epicenter” Stockholm, the lethality of this virus in the age groups 0-69 is 0.1%.
This 0.1% includes those who have died “with” covid and with other serious underlying conditions.

Not quite the same topic but even he admitted they messed up in Sweden on care homes. I've no idea about these COVID deaths as countries used a variety of means to determine them. We use deaths, tested and suspected and data on underlying conditions to address the "with" and "of" dichotomy.

mcsean2163

I think it's sad how protesters are dismissed as nutjobs. Not everyone is suited to covid19 lockdown rules and not everyone has suffered the same.

For some it's been a great time to work from home and spend more time with the kids. For others it means job loss, business destruction, etc.

Sometimes all people need is to know they are being listened to and their concerns being considered.

Dismissing the concerns of anti maskers etc out of hand is mean. Like a psychologist, listening and consideration are probably more humane options

Spiderman0081

is_that_so wrote: »

Not quite the same topic but even he admitted they messed up in Sweden on care homes. I've no idea about these COVID deaths as countries used a variety of means to determine them. We use deaths, tested and suspected and data on underlying conditions to address the "with" and "of" dichotomy.

It’s the same topic. The virus has pretty much been able to spread freely in Stockholm and that 0.1% for 0-69 has so far been the result, including all underlying conditions. There is no evidence to suggest a lockdown in Sweden would have prevented the nursing home deaths. It was more testing of those who worked there which was necessary, because that’s how the virus entered.
This has definitely highlighted the inadequacies care homes, both in Ireland and Sweden.
I don’t know why you say “even he”. FHM have been able to admit their faults and were very open about saying that they hope their strategy is the correct one. A complete contrast to those Irish politicians who “know” lockdowns are the “right” strategy.

is_that_so

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

It’s the same topic. The virus has pretty much been able to spread freely in Stockholm and that 0.1% for 0-69 has so far been the result, including all underlying conditions. There is no evidence to suggest a lockdown in Sweden would have prevented the nursing home deaths. It was more testing of those who worked there which was necessary, because that’s how the virus entered.
This has definitely highlighted the inadequacies care homes, both in Ireland and Sweden.
I don’t know why you say “even he”. FHM have been able to admit their faults and were very open about saying that they hope their strategy is the correct one. A complete contrast to those Irish politicians who “know” lockdowns are the “right” strategy.

I'm fairly unmoved by the claims that IFR is of much use other than an indication of how many might die. Yes, people will die but it's the pre-death pressures on health systems that are the real challenge along with the risks to particular groups. There is no right strategy, it's all down to culture and how the populace will respond to strategies. Sweden's is just one, one that is quite unlikely to be taken up by other locations.

Akrasia

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I think it's sad how protesters are dismissed as nutjobs. Not everyone is suited to covid19 lockdown rules and not everyone has suffered the same.

For some it's been a great time to work from home and spend more time with the kids. For others it means job loss, business destruction, etc.

Sometimes all people need is to know they are being listened to and their concerns being considered.

Dismissing the concerns of anti maskers etc out of hand is mean. Like a psychologist, listening and consideration are probably more humane options

If the concerns were valid then they would be given consideration, but the people who go to these protests are mainly conspiracy theorists who have completely lost touch with reality, and their deranged views should not be pandered to or given legitimacy

Time for Truth Donegal-Derry group On Facebook is full of misinformation and people sharing false stories about people getting lung infections because of their masks

normanoffside

kippy wrote: »

We've had the Swedish approach pretty much for the past few months. Look what's happening.....

Indeed, what’s happening is the problem, I.e. people like you panicking and asking for things to be locked up again.

Do you not think Sweden also had a lot of cases at first?
Do you not see that was part of the strategy?

We don’t ven have high case numbers compared to a lot of European countries yet our bars and Restaurants either never opened or have been closed again.

That’s so far from a Swedish strategy it’s not even funny.