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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    But what are the actual figures for this rise and why are they not impacting on the numbers for Amazonas state as a whole, two-thirds of which live in Manaus?

    Other that that research paper that claimed Manaus had herd immunity, and various reports of restrictions in Manaus due to rising numbers, that at the moment is as much as I can tell you.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    In summary, things are really bad in the southern hemisphere of the America's and Australia but not southern Asia or Africa except for south Africa which is suffering a bit. Japan is fine too.

    I've documented and published a preprint on researchgate of a correlation that might explain the pattern. I've emailed a lot of people. To my knowledge nobody has followed up my amateur work and that of at least three others reporting similar findings. I don't want to spread panic and have followed cautious channels but the complete lack of interest has been awful. I hope the remote scenario we describe is wrong and Christmas is not the month of bodybags.

    Anyway, we'll know if Tegnell is right by April or whether the cautious approach would have been better.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    cnocbui wrote: »
    There might be treatments that have an an impact sooner than vaccines:

    Depending on toxicity studies and receiving regulatory approval it will be next year before they can begin human trials. Looks as if it is successful it is more intended as complementary to vaccines rather than an alternative.
    Hope it work out for them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    In summary, things are really bad in the southern hemisphere of the America's and Australia but not southern Asia or Africa except for south Africa which is suffering a bit. Japan is fine too.

    I've documented and published a preprint on researchgate of a correlation that might explain the pattern. I've emailed a lot of people. To my knowledge nobody has followed up my amateur work and that of at least three others reporting similar findings. I don't want to spread panic and have followed cautious channels but the complete lack of interest has been awful. I hope the remote scenario we describe is wrong and Christmas is not the month of bodybags.

    Anyway, we'll know if Tegnell is right by April or whether the cautious approach would have been better.
    I would be interested in a link to that paper.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,368 ✭✭✭plodder


    cnocbui wrote: »
    There might be treatments that have an an impact sooner than vaccines:
    Australian nasal spray claims to reduce Covid-19 growth by 96%
    A study on ferrets showed the product dubbed INNA-051, which could be used complementary to vaccines, lowered the levels of the virus that causes Covid-19 by up to 96 per cent, the company said.
    I read a while back that the low rate of infection and death in Thailand is due to the common habit there of flushing out the nasal passages with saline. Some sources say up to 80% of the population practice this regularly.

    So, it makes sense to me that a nasal spray taken at the right time, or maybe preventively would help. Hopefully, these trials can be completed quickly to see if this product works.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I can not find one either, but if they have started closing bars and riverside beaches, as well as restrictions on restaurants, parties, gathering and shopping hours, then I would imaging the numbers are rising. Not something you would expect if 66% have immunity.
    charlie14 wrote: »
    Other that that research paper that claimed Manaus had herd immunity, and various reports of restrictions in Manaus due to rising numbers, that at the moment is as much as I can tell you.
    I think we need figures in order to judge whether the recent restrictions are an overreaction to modest rises from a low base, statistical noise or whatever. It could be political also, with the local authorities not wanting to see Bolsinaro's laissez-faire approach vindicated.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    In summary, things are really bad in the southern hemisphere of the America's and Australia but not southern Asia or Africa except for south Africa which is suffering a bit. Japan is fine too.

    I've documented and published a preprint on researchgate of a correlation that might explain the pattern. I've emailed a lot of people. To my knowledge nobody has followed up my amateur work and that of at least three others reporting similar findings. I don't want to spread panic and have followed cautious channels but the complete lack of interest has been awful. I hope the remote scenario we describe is wrong and Christmas is not the month of bodybags.

    Anyway, we'll know if Tegnell is right by April or whether the cautious approach would have been better.

    Could you link to the preprint?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    In summary, things are really bad in the southern hemisphere of the America's and Australia but not southern Asia or Africa except for south Africa which is suffering a bit. Japan is fine too.

    I've documented and published a preprint on researchgate of a correlation that might explain the pattern. I've emailed a lot of people. To my knowledge nobody has followed up my amateur work and that of at least three others reporting similar findings. I don't want to spread panic and have followed cautious channels but the complete lack of interest has been awful. I hope the remote scenario we describe is wrong and Christmas is not the month of bodybags.

    Anyway, we'll know if Tegnell is right by April or whether the cautious approach would have been better.

    How are things bad in Australia? Just 35 deaths per million, outbreak almost ceased, 80% of their deaths are in nursing homes, probably will have almost no excess deaths. South America yeh couldn't really be much worse, I don;t understand how deaths are so much higher than everywhere else in the world there and why so many young people are dying of it there either


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I think we need figures in order to judge whether the recent restrictions are an overreaction to modest rises from a low base, statistical noise or whatever. It could be political also, with the local authorities not wanting to see Bolsinaro's laissez-faire approach vindicated.


    Just saw this and if it is accurate, according to the New York Times 29th. September, Amazonas cases have risen by 4,951 for the previous 7 days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    charlie14 wrote: »
    The post you are replying to listed the advantage to date.
    60% less deaths and a better GDP. Even with lockdown.
    With some workers in Sweden being regarded as being on forlough rather than being unemployed, then on unemployment figures it is difficult to make comparisons.
    Bloomberg estimated at one stage that when those on furlough were included the true figure for Sweden was 17%. Same as here then as far as I recall. But you already know all this.
    Ireland`s income tax returns were down by just 2% during lockdown, so rather than having to yet again repeat the above to you, why not do a bit of research yourself and tell me how the Swedish income tax returns were for the same period ?

    On herd immunity, a very pot, kettle, black remark from someone who has posted the same Giesecke video interview so often that if it was a record the needle would have worn through at this stage.

    At a conservative estimate I reckon 9 out of 10 times lately my mention of herd immunity has been due to you and others abject refusal to accept that certain e-mails even exist. Let alone show that from the outset herd immunity was at the heart of the Swedish strategy.
    Those e-mails along with Annika Linde`s comments after the results of the first antibody results, and Karin Ulrika Olofdotter`s April interview on America`s National Public Radio now make it comically farcical to claim otherwise.

    First in bold, Bloomberg estimated at some stage? Is that like a source? Is that your go to for Swedish unemployment/economy? :rolleyes:

    2nd in bold, are you aware of VAT? How is VAT doing? Furthermore, how is Ireland doing in terms of expenditure this year? I can not believe that you keep living in this fantasy land of covid vaccines going through "usual" phases of testing and that Ireland will do better GDP, economy, unemployment wise than Sweden. This is very telling.

    And all you could say is "bloomberg estimated" ..... Charlie you are not good at debating or putting forward a valid argument.

    Lastly, that piece in bold, will you stop mentioning them emails already?? This is like insanity isnt it, you keep talking about herd immunity, some random emails, and expecting posters here to respond to that.. :confused:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,603 ✭✭✭dubrov


    It doesn't take a genius to workout that if you close a business down due to a lockdown, it has to have a negative economic effect.

    Unfortunately, the economic effect hasn't been spread evenly among industries or even individuals. Some will come out the other side of this in better shape than they went in while others will be ruined.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,103 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    In summary, things are really bad in the southern hemisphere of the America's and Australia but not southern Asia or Africa except for south Africa which is suffering a bit. Japan is fine too.

    I've documented and published a preprint on researchgate of a correlation that might explain the pattern. I've emailed a lot of people. To my knowledge nobody has followed up my amateur work and that of at least three others reporting similar findings. I don't want to spread panic and have followed cautious channels but the complete lack of interest has been awful. I hope the remote scenario we describe is wrong and Christmas is not the month of bodybags.

    Anyway, we'll know if Tegnell is right by April or whether the cautious approach would have been better.

    Things are not bad in Australia and haven't been at any point.

    Australia has 5 times the population of Ireland. It's one of the great success stories. It's pandemic death rate is one tenth that of Ireland's:

    Aus-Ire-Covid.jpg

    Australia's chart is in green because it's in the 'almost there' category, while Ireland is in red because it's in trouble.
    https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    First in bold, Bloomberg estimated at some stage? Is that like a source? Is that your go to for Swedish unemployment/economy? :rolleyes:

    2nd in bold, are you aware of VAT? How is VAT doing? Furthermore, how is Ireland doing in terms of expenditure this year? I can not believe that you keep living in this fantasy land of covid vaccines going through "usual" phases of testing and that Ireland will do better GDP, economy, unemployment wise than Sweden. This is very telling.

    And all you could say is "bloomberg estimated" ..... Charlie you are not good at debating or putting forward a valid argument.

    Lastly, that piece in bold, will you stop mentioning them emails already?? This is like insanity isnt it, you keep talking about herd immunity, some random emails, and expecting posters here to respond to that.. :confused:


    Why would I go trawling back through posts to again show you what I have shown you numerous times already on Bloomberg`s true figure of unemployment levels in Sweden when furlough is taken into account.
    For your amusement ?
    Because every time you were shown you choose to ignore. ?
    You are to busy posting the first thoughts that come into your head to do your own research ?

    On vaccines not going through the "usual" process`s you are either to lazy to do even the most basic research, or as so often with you because the facts do not suit your rhetoric, you have chosen to ignore them.
    Even the most basic research on vaccine testing and the approval process would have shown you what the "usual" procedure as stipulated by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are, as I have already said, the exact same procedures as "usual" for any vaccine to be granted a license.

    Why this obsession now that e-mails from Giesecke and Tegnell should be ignored and never mentioned. ?
    Because it`s just another inconvenient truth that shows along with other publicly uttered statement that herd immunity was from the very outset at the heart of the Swedish strategy, rather than this unintended coincidence you kept mimicking from your Swedish heroes ?
    Strange way of debating if it is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    As usual, as usual...

    Nowhere near as usual. Perhaps you did not hear stuff like a delayed response or long term damage. That is why every vaccine to this date was tested and subjects monitored for years.
    charlie14 wrote: »
    Why would I go trawling back through posts to again show you what I have shown you numerous times already on Bloomberg`s true figure of unemployment levels in Sweden when furlough is taken into account.
    For your amusement ?
    Because every time you were shown you choose to ignore. ?
    You are to busy posting the first thoughts that come into your head to do your own research ?

    On vaccines not going through the "usual" process`s you are either to lazy to do even the most basic research, or as so often with you because the facts do not suit your rhetoric, you have chosen to ignore them.
    Even the most basic research on vaccine testing and the approval process would have shown you what the "usual" procedure as stipulated by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are, as I have already said, the exact same procedures as "usual" for any vaccine to be granted a license.

    Why this obsession now that e-mails from Giesecke and Tegnell should be ignored and never mentioned. ?
    Because it`s just another inconvenient truth that shows along with other publicly uttered statement that herd immunity was from the very outset at the heart of the Swedish strategy, rather than this unintended coincidence you kept mimicking from your Swedish heroes ?
    Strange way of debating if it is.

    Charles, its not just me. There are other posters who clearly disagree with you on your "usual" definition.

    You are unable to debate. Everytime you are asked for something concrete you give the usual "Why would I go trawling back through posts".

    Congratulations on not mentioning herd immunity. Oh wait. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    397 new cases and 3 deaths reported today in Sweden with 20 currently in ICU. They have significant headroom when it comes to ICU, not that they will be locking down. Their numbers look very like our own despite over double our population.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Charles, its not just me. There are other posters who clearly disagree with you on your "usual" definition.

    You are unable to debate. Everytime you are asked for something concrete you give the usual "Why would I go trawling back through posts".

    Congratulations on not mentioning herd immunity. Oh wait. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    Have you now sank to the level of attempting to insinuate that I am incorrect that the procedures stipulated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are not being adhered to with these Covid-19 vaccines because "others" disagree ?
    Or yet again are you just making noise and wasting peoples time by posting the first thing that enters your head on vaccine testing and approval where even the most basic research would have shown you just how wrong you yourself were ?

    As far as I am concerned any interaction with you can not be looked on as debate.
    No matter how many times posts addressing your "facts" and assumptions showing how incorrect they were, you just ignore them. Then after some time, back you come rehashing as if you never saw those posts.

    You are now doing exactly the same. Not only on vaccines but attempting to ignore e-mails and other publicly express statements by authority figures in Sweden that clearly show what was at the very heart of the Swedish strategy.

    Is it not now past time to just accept that your hero Giesecke, with his "it will all be over in in a month or two" back in March , sold you a mongrel pup that you have been parading around since as a pure-breed and move on.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    How are things bad in Australia? Just 35 deaths per million, outbreak almost ceased, 80% of their deaths are in nursing homes, probably will have almost no excess deaths. South America yeh couldn't really be much worse, I don;t understand how deaths are so much higher than everywhere else in the world there and why so many young people are dying of it there either

    Is the test for Covid generic accross the world, or do variances exist?


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    397 new cases and 3 deaths reported today in Sweden with 20 currently in ICU. They have significant headroom when it comes to ICU, not that they will be locking down. Their numbers look very like our own despite over double our population.

    As I have previously said, with their population I would not have seen their numbers that concerning, but last week compared to their previous week those testing positive had risen by 50% nationally from 1.6% to 2.4%.

    Where they appear to be particular concerned is with the rise in Stockholm.
    Last week from 23,656 tests in Stockholm 4.1% tested positive (963)
    Previous week from 27,062 tests there 2.2% tested positive (537).
    With Stockholm being epicenter of infections, I think it is safe to assume that the main reason for their concerns is that the percentage rise there is greater at 4.1% than the national figure of 2.4%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Have you now sank to the level of attempting to insinuate that I am incorrect that the procedures stipulated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are not being adhered to with these Covid-19 vaccines because "others" disagree ?
    Or yet again are you just making noise and wasting peoples time by posting the first thing that enters your head on vaccine testing and approval where even the most basic research would have shown you just how wrong you yourself were ?

    As far as I am concerned any interaction with you can not be looked on as debate.
    No matter how many times posts addressing your "facts" and assumptions showing how incorrect they were, you just ignore them. Then after some time, back you come rehashing as if you never saw those posts.

    You are now doing exactly the same. Not only on vaccines but attempting to ignore e-mails and other publicly express statements by authority figures in Sweden that clearly show what was at the very heart of the Swedish strategy.

    Is it not now past time to just accept that your hero Giesecke, with his "it will all be over in in a month or two" back in March , sold you a mongrel pup that you have been parading around since as a pure-breed and move on.

    Congratulations, your first post without mentioning herd immunity. Charlie I am proud of you :)

    Now you need to replicate that success with these "emails" you keep bringing up. Fascinatingly enough, not a single other poster in this thread has ever brought up those "emails". Is that a clue?

    On a more serious note, I can not believe that you call Swedish strategy a "mongrel pup". You are extremely arrogant and do not want to admit that their strategy is the winning one. You go 1 step further, you put it down. Incredible carry on. :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,212 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Congratulations, your first post without mentioning herd immunity. Charlie I am proud of you :)

    Now you need to replicate that success with these "emails" you keep bringing up. Fascinatingly enough, not a single other poster in this thread has ever brought up those "emails". Is that a clue?

    On a more serious note, I can not believe that you call Swedish strategy a "mongrel pup". You are extremely arrogant and do not want to admit that their strategy is the winning one. You go 1 step further, you put it down. Incredible carry on. :eek:

    With you littering posts with emojis, your silly little barbs when your "facts" and assumptions are shown to be incorrect, and your attempts at misrepresenting what was said, you`re becoming more like a petulant 5 year old with every passing day.

    To yet again having to address your latest attempt at misrepresenting what I said.
    I did not call Sweden`s strategy a mongrel pup.
    I said your hero Giesecke sold you a mongrel pup that you have been parading around as a pure-breed.
    Surely even you can see that now after his assurance to his employers in March that "it would all be over in one or two months"

    What is your obsession with these continuous attempts to have no mention of e-mails or statements that are in the public domain having been made by people in authority in Sweden ?
    Especially when none of those involved have denied the content, or that they sent those e-mails. Nor have the others contested that what was broadcast and published was what they said.

    Other than they expose your "facts" and assumptions for what they were that is.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    charlie14 wrote: »
    With you littering posts with emojis, your silly little barbs when your "facts" and assumptions are shown to be incorrect, and your attempts at misrepresenting what was said, you`re becoming more like a petulant 5 year old with every passing day.

    To yet again having to address your latest attempt at misrepresenting what I said.
    I did not call Sweden`s strategy a mongrel pup.
    I said your hero Giesecke sold you a mongrel pup that you have been parading around as a pure-breed.
    Surely even you can see that now after his assurance to his employers in March that "it would all be over in one or two months"

    What is your obsession with these continuous attempts to have no mention of e-mails or statements that are in the public domain having been made by people in authority in Sweden ?
    Especially when none of those involved have denied the content, or that they sent those e-mails. Nor have the others contested that what was broadcast and published was what they said.

    Other than they expose your "facts" and assumptions for what they were that is.

    Charlie, I am a simple man, I see a good strategy - I call it out. Swedish strategy is good. Its much better than yoyo lockdowns that we have that got our nation depressed and put 1 in 6 out of work, while having 0.02% less deaths than Sweden with covid. I know you think income tax receipts are same levels as 2019 and all is rosy, but you just want to be a naive individual about it all and that cant be changed.

    When you talk about emails btw, are those the emails? :pac:



    On a more serious note Charlie, you never answered my point about Irish VAT receipts? Are they good? Or Irish government expenditure this year, is that going better than Sweden's?

    Did Sweden increase their ICU btw? Did Ireland? Charlie these are valid questions, but I am sure you ll come out with your usual "you are a 5 year old" "I dont have time to trawl through previous posts" garbage, and who can forget the classic "Bloomberg estimated at one stage" :rolleyes:


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 837 ✭✭✭John O.Groats


    Charlie, I am a simple man, I see a good strategy - I call it out. Swedish strategy is good. Its much better than yoyo lockdowns that we have that got our nation depressed and put 1 in 6 out of work, while having 0.02% less deaths than Sweden with covid. I know you think income tax receipts are same levels as 2019 and all is rosy, but you just want to be a naive individual about it all and that cant be changed.

    When you talk about emails btw, are those the emails? :pac:



    On a more serious note Charlie, you never answered my point about Irish VAT receipts? Are they good? Or Irish government expenditure this year, is that going better than Sweden's?

    Did Sweden increase their ICU btw? Did Ireland? Charlie these are valid questions, but I am sure you ll come out with your usual "you are a 5 year old" "I dont have time to trawl through previous posts" garbage, and who can forget the classic "Bloomberg estimated at one stage" :rolleyes:

    Piece of advice for you pal. I suggest you stick to posting your Alice in Wonderland nonsense on the restrictions thread where your delusional ostrich pals may back up your ramblings. For sure on this thread and others despite continually getting your ass handed to you you keep digging yourself in deeper and deeper as the above post clearly demonstrates.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,603 ✭✭✭dubrov


    Piece of advice for you pal. I suggest you stick to posting your nonsense on the Alice in Wonderland restrictions thread where your delusional ostrich pals may back up your ramblings. For sure on this thread and others despite continually getting your ass handed to you you keep digging yourself in deeper and deeper as the above post clearly demonstrates.

    Could you argue the points raised? The above isn't an argument


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    dubrov wrote: »
    Could you argue the points raised? The above isn't an argument

    I ask simple question, can anyone name at least 1 other benefit of our yoyo lockdown strategy over Sweden's other than the deaths with covid being smaller at 0.04% of Irish population versus 0.06% of Swedish population?

    In response to this all I heard was "emails" "herd immunity" "Bloomberg estimated at one stage" and the classic "you are a 5 year old with your emojis"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 838 ✭✭✭The_Brood



    Not sure what that's supposed to show. No country has it perfect, and Sweden's cases are neither the best nor the worst in Europe.

    However, the fact that they allowed themselves to continue living, while we shut down much of life, and reaped no significant benefits over this decision compared to a country that didn't shut down at all, should never be forgotten or forgiven.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    The_Brood wrote: »
    Not sure what that's supposed to show. No country has it perfect, and Sweden's cases are neither the best nor the worst in Europe.

    However, the fact that they allowed themselves to continue living, while we shut down much of life, and reaped no significant benefits over this decision compared to a country that didn't shut down at all, should never be forgotten or forgiven.

    It's a myth to say it's business as usual in Sweden, with similar GDP falls and loss of consumer spending there as in other countries in Europe


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Congratulations, your first post without mentioning herd immunity. Charlie I am proud of you :)

    Now you need to replicate that success with these "emails" you keep bringing up. Fascinatingly enough, not a single other poster in this thread has ever brought up those "emails". Is that a clue?

    On a more serious note, I can not believe that you call Swedish strategy a "mongrel pup". You are extremely arrogant and do not want to admit that their strategy is the winning one. You go 1 step further, you put it down. Incredible carry on. :eek:

    I have too. Similarly ignored.

    Swedish strategy was a formalised Euthanasia of the vulnerable. I wouldnt call that winning.

    Also, their economy suffered more than neighbours, 4,000 assisted deaths with morphine, 6,000 covid deaths, 150,000 longhaul covid, and only 14% pop with immunity.

    Restrictions again. Why are they not immune now?

    Winning. Right.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    I ask simple question, can anyone name at least 1 other benefit of our yoyo lockdown strategy over Sweden's other than the deaths with covid being smaller at 0.04% of Irish population versus 0.06% of Swedish population?

    In response to this all I heard was "emails" "herd immunity" "Bloomberg estimated at one stage" and the classic "you are a 5 year old with your emojis"

    WHY OUR APPROACH WAS BETTER:


    MORE PEOPLE ALIVE.
    LESS LONG TERM AFFECTS.
    BETTER ECONOMIC GROWTH
    BETTER INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION.
    LESS CHILDREN WITH MIS-C
    MORE SURVIVING HEALTH CARE WORKERS.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    WHY OUR APPROACH WAS BETTER:


    MORE PEOPLE ALIVE.
    LESS LONG TERM AFFECTS.
    BETTER ECONOMIC GROWTH
    BETTER INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION.
    LESS CHILDREN WITH MIS-C
    MORE SURVIVING HEALTH CARE WORKERS.
    In fairness, a lot of those are disputable.


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