Sweden avoiding lockdown

dubrov

charlie14 wrote: »

I wouldn`t look at 5th out of 44 where 43 used lockdown a great positive for no lockdown. Even more-so when you consider at least 3 of the other 4 countries with a higher figures than Sweden.
Belgium is generally accepted as having over-counted, the UK played around with the Swedish approach for too long before imposing lockdown and Italy`s was originally an example of how not to do it.

All of those things are related to timing rather than severity.

For all anyone knows, the Swedish measures may be effective and anything beyond that might have a negligible effect.

It's strange that we are 7 months into this thing and there is still so much unknown about the virus

kippy

dubrov wrote: »

All of those things are related to timing rather than severity.

For all anyone knows, the Swedish measures may be effective and anything beyond that might have a negligible effect.

It's strange that we are 7 months into this thing and there is still so much unknown about the virus

There is so much unknown about virus' and conditions around a lot longer than 7 months.
Puts into perspective how miniscule and exposed we are in general as a race.

JimmyVik

kippy wrote: »

There is so much unknown about virus' and conditions around a lot longer than 7 months.
Puts into perspective how miniscule and exposed we are in general as a race.

I just posted in another thread that its totally unkown and people should be concerned about that aspect of it.
eg HPV virus you wouldnt even know if you had it.
Look what that leads to 10 or more years down the line.
Could anything like that be lurking in this brand new virus too?
We just dont know.
But it does attack many different parts of the body. Could easily be leaving something there that comes back in 10 years as something much worse.
Id rather not have it

topper75

I think people have more than enough worries in fighting the known. The queue is full!

We are 'exposed as a race' yes, but always have been. Some day a virus might well knock us out - but that virus will not be Covid-19, which does not manage to produce symptoms in many who are affected.

charlie14

dubrov wrote: »

All of those things are related to timing rather than severity.

For all anyone knows, the Swedish measures may be effective and anything beyond that might have a negligible effect.

It's strange that we are 7 months into this thing and there is still so much unknown about the virus

Not really. We know where countries used lockdown early deaths are lower.
Even in countries such as the UK, Italy and Spain where infection were at a high level once a national lockdown was in place the infection rate dropped.
There is indeed still a lot we do not know about this virus.Not the least of the short, medium and long term health implications for those infected.
But there is also much we do know. At least three companies are now in the final stages of vaccine development and many more close to that stage.

One thing in particular we have known from very early is that this virus is airborne transmitted. Something the Karolinska Institute has researched and from their results have recommended the wearing of face masks for all students and staff.
Ericsson one of Sweden`s largest companies with a workforce of 100,000 worldwide, (13,000 in Sweden), have made wearing of face masks mandatory for all staff and any visitors to their premises.

With the Karolinska Institute being Sweden`s premier medical research facility, then the shilly-shally of the Swedish health authorities on face masks to me is completely illogical.

charlie14

topper75 wrote: »

I think people have more than enough worries in fighting the known. The queue is full!

We are 'exposed as a race' yes, but always have been. Some day a virus might well knock us out - but that virus will not be Covid-19, which does not manage to produce symptoms in many who are affected.

It produces symptoms that when transmitted to other can "knock" them out.
There are many viruses that will not "knock" us all out, but that hasn`t meant we have not endeavoured to control the spread or eradicate them.

SeaBreezes

topper75 wrote: »

I think people have more than enough worries in fighting the known. The queue is full!

We are 'exposed as a race' yes, but always have been. Some day a virus might well knock us out - but that virus will not be Covid-19, which does not manage to produce symptoms in many who are affected.

How do you know?

tobefrank321

Sweden beginning to see a new casedemic. 850 new cases today which is a big rise. I'd have more faith in Swedish testing at this stage than Ireland or the UK. Seems like they find new cases quickly. In Ireland there's been a relative levelling off of cases in the last few days but a rise in positivity rates so it feels like we are missing cases.

Only one new person admitted to ICU in Sweden today, no deaths.

the incredible pudding

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'd have more faith in Swedish testing at this stage than Ireland or the UK.
Only one new person admitted to ICU in Sweden today, no deaths.

I don't know what it's like currently in Ireland but I applied for a test here last week using their app (had a sore throat, probably associated with a wisdom tooth moving like a glacier) and it came back negative the following day.
A taxi pulled up outside my apartment with the kit the day after I applied, came back 20 minutes later to pick it up. Twas handy enough.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Sweden beginning to see a new casedemic. 850 new cases today which is a big rise. I'd have more faith in Swedish testing at this stage than Ireland or the UK. Seems like they find new cases quickly. In Ireland there's been a relative levelling off of cases in the last few days but a rise in positivity rates so it feels like we are missing cases.

Only one new person admitted to ICU in Sweden today, no deaths.

I would find that questionable on tests.
In Ireland in the last 7 days there have been 91,823 tests with a positive rate of 4.2%.
Week ending 28th Sept. Sweden tested 128,852 with a positive rate of 3.95%
for Stockholm.
On those figures Sweden per capita tested 1/3 less than Ireland.

In Ireland today 1 admitted to ICU, 1 discharged from ICU, 17 admitted to hospital, 12 discharged from hospital and unfortunately 1 death.

is_that_so

Very, very long chronicle of the Swedish experience. 15m+ read.

Sweden's approach to the coronavirus pandemic is out of step with much of the world. The government never ordered a “shutdown” and kept day care centers and primary schools open. While cities worldwide turned into ghost towns, Swedes could be seen chatting in cafés and working out at the gym. The contrast evoked both admiration and alarm in other countries, with journalists and experts debating whether the strategy was brilliant—or whether Tegnell, its main architect, had lost the plot.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6513/159

JimmyVik

the incredible pudding wrote: »

I don't know what it's like currently in Ireland but I applied for a test here last week using their app (had a sore throat, probably associated with a wisdom tooth moving like a glacier) and it came back negative the following day.
A taxi pulled up outside my apartment with the kit the day after I applied, came back 20 minutes later to pick it up. Twas handy enough.

If you test yourself are you not prone to not doing it properly.
I had a test and they go fairly far up your nose and down your throat.
If I was to do that myself I dont think id be going so far.

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

Very, very long chronicle of the Swedish experience. 15m+ read.



https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6513/159

I read it and its a good article.

From what I can see, Sweden are following 90% of the measures in other countries, travel restrictions, limits in large gatherings, nursing home visit restrictions at times of peaks and other measures.

They've kept schools open and every other country has followed them in that regard.

I agree with Tegnell on this: "TEGNELL HAS SAID repeatedly that the Swedish strategy takes a holistic view of public health, aiming to balance the risk of the virus with the damage from countermeasures like closed schools"

The vast majority of people who died from covid 19, their life is almost over already. They've lived long lives, had families, careers, holidays and since they were living in Sweden likely a high standard of living. The same opportunities have to be given to the young in every country. And so far they are facing years of educational disruption, being told they cannot travel abroad, a lack of traditional summer jobs in hospitality, farcical predicted grades and limited job opportunities when they leave college.

You have to get the balance right and allowing schools to remain open and proper exams is critical to that, otherwise the impact of school closures could last decades into the future. Other countries only copped on to that during the summer and are following Sweden's lead.

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

If you test yourself are you not prone to not doing it properly.
I had a test and they go fairly far up your nose and down your throat.
If I was to do that myself I dont think id be going so far.

I'm open to correction here, but I think the home tests are saliva based.

blanch152

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I read it and its a good article.

From what I can see, Sweden are following 90% of the measures in other countries, travel restrictions, limits in large gatherings, nursing home visit restrictions at times of peaks and other measures.

They've kept schools open and every other country has followed them in that regard.

I agree with Tegnell on this: "TEGNELL HAS SAID repeatedly that the Swedish strategy takes a holistic view of public health, aiming to balance the risk of the virus with the damage from countermeasures like closed schools"

The vast majority of people who died from covid 19, their life is almost over already, they've lived long lives, had families, careers, holidays and since they were living in Sweden likely a high standard of living. The same opportunities have to be given to the young in every country. And so far they are facing years of educational disruption, being told they cannot travel abroad, a lack of traditional summer jobs in hospitality, farcical predicted grades and limited job opportunities when they leave college.

You have to get the balance right and allowing schools to remain open and proper exams is critical to that, otherwise the impact of school closures could last decades into the future. Other countries only copped on to that during the summer and are following Sweden's lead.

You are absolutely right about education.

Whether or not that is what Sweden did is neither here nor there. The first priority is ensuring that the hospitals are not overwhelmed. The second priority is ensuring people get fed. The third priority is to keep education functioning as normal as possible. After that, ensuring the economy keeps working at as high a level as possible to deliver the first three priorities is most important.

JimmyVik

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'm open to correction here, but I think the home tests are saliva based.

That would certainly be more comfortable.
My mother had one and she said she would rather die of covid than have another test.
I found it uncomfortable, but fine when I had mine.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I read it and its a good article.

From what I can see, Sweden are following 90% of the measures in other countries, travel restrictions, limits in large gatherings, nursing home visit restrictions at times of peaks and other measures.

They've kept schools open and every other country has followed them in that regard.

I agree with Tegnell on this: "TEGNELL HAS SAID repeatedly that the Swedish strategy takes a holistic view of public health, aiming to balance the risk of the virus with the damage from countermeasures like closed schools"

The vast majority of people who died from covid 19, their life is almost over already. They've lived long lives, had families, careers, holidays and since they were living in Sweden likely a high standard of living. The same opportunities have to be given to the young in every country. And so far they are facing years of educational disruption, being told they cannot travel abroad, a lack of traditional summer jobs in hospitality, farcical predicted grades and limited job opportunities when they leave college.

You have to get the balance right and allowing schools to remain open and proper exams is critical to that, otherwise the impact of school closures could last decades into the future. Other countries only copped on to that during the summer and are following Sweden's lead.

I would have doubts on the effectiveness on some of those recommendations/restrictions.

Sweden`s Minister for higher education has called on students to basically cop themselves on with cases in 8 regions being linked to universities students and parties.
I would doubt following the recommendation of keeping party numbers under 50 are going to make a lot of difference.

On nursing homes, Sweden intended withdrawing the restrictions governing care home visits from the 1st. October, and as far as I can see have not rescinded that. If they have not, in light of what both ourselves and Sweden should have learned on care homes it`s insanity in my view.

Sweden has recently changed it`s position as regards households and confirmed cases, but are still insistent on full school attendance for children from such households.
While I totally agree on the importance, for young children especially, of schools being open, would a child missing a week due to being possibly infected really make that much difference to their education.
I doubt there has been the same insistence in the past on children missing a short period from school due to illness.
Tbh that insistence, and the 1st. October lifting of restrictions if it has not been rescinded, come across to me as nothing more than pig-headedness

cnocbui

JimmyVik wrote: »

That would certainly be more comfortable.
My mother had one and she said she would rather die of covid than have another test.
I found it uncomfortable, but fine when I had mine.

I have expelled a large amount of coca colla via my nose on several occasions when induced to laugh when I would rather have waited 5 seconds. I can still conjure the eye-watering pain even decades later. They can stick their swab in their own orrifice.

Bit cynical

Like most of Europe, cases have been rising in Sweden for the last few weeks. The graph below is the 7-day moving average of daily new cases. We see that Ireland (orange) has gone from 33 to 101 cases per day per million whereas Sweden has gone from 20 to 54 cases per day per million, a lower rate of increase.

Diarmuid

Put the UK on that chart if you want to see some massive growth in cases

Att vara en hest

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'm open to correction here, but I think the home tests are saliva based.

This is correct, the self tests are saliva based

cnocbui

Bit cynical wrote: »

Like most of Europe, cases have been rising in Sweden for the last few weeks. The graph below is the 7-day moving average of daily new cases. We see that Ireland (orange) has gone from 33 to 101 cases per day per million whereas Sweden has gone from 20 to 54 cases per day per million, a lower rate of increase.

Oh dear, Sweden's in trouble. I guess people in cafes should restrict themselves to only one cup of coffee and should skip the desert in restaurants. Tragedy.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Like most of Europe, cases have been rising in Sweden for the last few weeks. The graph below is the 7-day moving average of daily new cases. We see that Ireland (orange) has gone from 33 to 101 cases per day per million whereas Sweden has gone from 20 to 54 cases per day per million, a lower rate of increase.

Ireland is performing around 50% more tests than Sweden, and the % of those testing positive are much the same in both.
If you take both the number of tests and the positive percentages into account, does it not perhaps point to the level of rise in infection for both being much closer than that graph suggests ?

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

Ireland is performing around 50% more tests than Sweden, and the % of those testing positive are much the same in both.
If you take both the number of tests and the positive percentages into account, does it not perhaps point to the level of rise in infection for both being much closer than that graph suggests ?

Flapping now.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Ireland is performing around 50% more tests than Sweden, and the % of those testing positive are much the same in both.
If you take both the number of tests and the positive percentages into account, does it not perhaps point to the level of rise in infection for both being much closer than that graph suggests ?

Looks like Sweden may be a week or two behind us in terms of infection increase so that may account for lower testing in Sweden. Lower infections mean lower number of tests. Regards tests done, positivity rate is a more important stat I'd say than tests done.
Its going to be interesting to see if the Swedes did frontload deaths in the spring and early summer. And the same for Ireland. What we might see in Ireland and Sweden now is nursing homes who avoided the first wave being badly affected in this wave. That seems to be what happened in the Laois nursing home. Completely avoided first wave but with no immunity among staff or patients they will be badly affected this time around, whereas homes that were badly affected the first time will do better this time.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Looks like Sweden may be a week or two behind us in terms of infection increase so that may account for lower testing in Sweden. Lower infections mean lower number of tests. Regards tests done, positivity rate is a more important stat I'd say than tests done.
Its going to be interesting to see if the Swedes did frontload deaths in the spring and early summer. And the same for Ireland. What we might see in Ireland and Sweden now is nursing homes who avoided the first wave being badly affected in this wave. That seems to be what happened in the Laois nursing home. Completely avoided first wave but with no immunity among staff or patients they will be badly affected this time around, whereas homes that were badly affected the first time will do better this time.

As we have no idea what if any immunity or how long it may possibly last, either here or in Sweden,I would not look on it as being a reason for both countries not to put stricter controls in place as regards nursing home which we both failed to do earlier.
Far as I can see, Sweden even reduced their restriction on visitors to theirs since Oct. 1st. Which imo is madness.
From that graph look to be a few weeks behind us in infection levels, and I`m not sure Sweden intend to increase the number of tests. Their all time high for tests has been in the past few weeks, and that was still much lower than ours.
Roughly 130,000 compared to 100,000.
Agree on the positivity rate, but on 28th. Sept for Stockholm their epicenter it was 4.1%. If immunity is a factor then I would have expected that percentage to be much lower. Especially two weeks ago.

charlie14

Breezin wrote: »

Flapping now.

321123

charlie14 wrote: »

As we have no idea what if any immunity or how long it may possibly last, either here or in Sweden,I would not look on it as being a reason for both countries not to put stricter controls in place as regards nursing home which we both failed to do earlier.
Far as I can see, Sweden even reduced their restriction on visitors to theirs since Oct. 1st. Which imo is madness.
From that graph look to be a few weeks behind us in infection levels, and I`m not sure Sweden intend to increase the number of tests. Their all time high for tests has been in the past few weeks, and that was still much lower than ours.
Roughly 130,000 compared to 100,000.
Agree on the positivity rate, but on 28th. Sept for Stockholm their epicenter it was 4.1%. If immunity is a factor then I would have expected that percentage to be much lower. Especially two weeks ago.

So old people should stay locked in indefinite? Isn't the will of people at the end of their life something that should be considered? The nursing homes are split now between patients that wants visits and the ones that don't want. The visits are planned in advance and the patient always has the last say if they are not under guardianship.

Why are you repeating the same junk? Last time you wrote the same crap I responded. The areas in Stockholm that were hit hard in the spring (Tensta/Rinkeby, parts of Södertälje etc) are the areas with the lowest spread at the moment while the areas with high spread in Stockholm are the wealthy apartment areas in the inner city (Östermalm, Vasastan, Norrmalm) and the suburbs out on the islands (Vaxholm - like Sandymount but with larger and detached houses). So the areas with very high rates in the spring have the lowest rates now while the areas with lower spread in the spring have higher rates now. Still even though it has been slowly rising for 4-6 weeks there are only 5 in ICU in Stockholm county with 2.3 million people. It has been going between 4-7 people at any given day on ICU in the last month. Majority are therefore not that worried at the moment. Lot of bull**** spread in the comment sections of Irish news media and social media that they are considering lockdown for Stockholm and other lies. I think some people are willing to make stuff up just to paint Stockholm in a worse picture.

Recommend anyone that wants a dose of normality to take one of the direct flights with SAS (think they fly Tue, Thu and Sun) from Dublin and see for yourself. Send me a PM and I can take you on a face mask free tour to some nice pubs and explain more about life in Stockholm. Sweden is currently on the no-test and no-quarantine list for the EU common travel system that Ireland is due to adopt. Hopefully it will stay like that too.

virginmediapls

charlie14 wrote: »

Ireland is performing around 50% more tests than Sweden, and the % of those testing positive are much the same in both.
If you take both the number of tests and the positive percentages into account, does it not perhaps point to the level of rise in infection for both being much closer than that graph suggests ?

Yeah it does, but some people on here have this weird fetishization of how Sweden have handled the virus. It's very odd.

cnocbui

virginmediapls wrote: »

Yeah it does, but some people on here have this weird fetishization of how Sweden have handled the virus. It's very odd.

Yes, and it's especially noticeable when the posts of one person comprise about 30% of those in the thread.