Sweden avoiding lockdown

dubrov

We won't really know until the end of the year. Sweden might get 170 a day for a month while we get 30 a day for 6 months as the growth was slower

Bushmaster64

eddie73 wrote: »

Lets not lose the run of ourselves yet.

While I agree that their restrictions are slack and could be better, you have to divide their death rate by 2 to get the island of Ireland average. we are doing somewhat better, but not by a hell of a lot.

Today they took a hammering. 170 deaths is a lot.
Lets see at the end of the month how they look. Its a big gamble. Should they be doing this? who knows.

To say that the hard left has disregard for the elderly is a strange statement.

How much bigger is Sweden than Ireland? Ireland has much more of a dense population than Sweden and still doing better than them.

Lots of left wing Sweden lovers are going to be very disappointed at the end of all this to see how the poster child for 'caring' socialism put the economy ahead of the people.

Att vara en hest

There were not 170 deaths in Sweden over the last 24 hours, these are numbers catching up from weekend.. There were 12 deaths reported on Sunday, do you think that's the real number? It's a known thing that Sweden laggs behind on death numbers! Actually the highest number of deaths in a single day peaked on Apr 8 with around 90 people dead in 24 hours, ever since then the numbers of death per 24 hours has decreased.

As mentioned on the press conference today they are 'cautiously optimistic' that the curve for infections has plateaued in Stockholm which bodes well for the rest of the country.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
^^^This is FOHM's own stats (folkhälsomyndigheten - department of public health), go to "Avlidna/dag" for deaths/day.

It's also not completely reasonable to compare Sweden directly to a country like Norway or Finland, Swedes do travel more abroad and especially people in areas like Stockholm. Sweden also had their "sport break" (similar to spring break) the same week as things went bad in Italian ski resorts, a lot of people came back infected from these areas.

There's also a large amount of immigrants in Sweden, in addition to the people returning from Italy there were also infected people coming from Iran.

Considering the different circumstances as well as the fact that the way deaths are counted is different, I'd say that Sweden is spot on with their tactic - especially considering it has very little impact on the everyday life of its citizens.

We've been under harsher restrictions here in Ireland for quite long and we're still seeing a large number of cases, in addition to that we also have the economy at a standstill.

In the end of the day, we won't know until later on who's right or who's wrong.. But to me, it looks like Sweden are doing something right.

biko

The Swedish really can't lose with their current tactic.

If they fall below the European average death rate they will be lauded.
If they fall on average, or maybe a tad high, they will be lauded because they didn't lock down.
If they end up much higher they will just claim "we tried to save our economy".

If they continue to not test, and not report all the cases, they will probably come out of this looking pretty good.
The old folks would probably have died of other causes and the celebs that died will be martyrs somehow.

The government have managed to shield itself, fronting with the FHM who can easily be thrown under the bus should things go pear-shaped.

The best site is c19.se which aggregates the numbers continuously, not just once a day.

niallo27

biko wrote: »

The Swedish really can't lose with their current tactic.

If they fall below the European average death rate they will be lauded.
If they fall on average, or maybe a tad high, they will be lauded because they didn't lock down.
If they end up much higher they will just claim "we tried to save our economy".

If they continue to not test, and not report all the cases, they will probably come out of this looking pretty good.
The old folks would probably have died of other causes and the celebs that died will be martyrs somehow.

The government have managed to shield itself, fronting with the FHM who can easily be thrown under the bus should things go pear-shaped.

The best site is c19.se which aggregates the numbers continuously, not just once a day.

Well they lose if they have tens of thousands of deaths like most models are predicting but for some reason has not materialized as of yet.

Wanderer78

niallo27 wrote:

Well they lose if they have tens of thousands of deaths like most models are predicting but for some reason has not materialized as of yet.

Will they care I'd they lose? Sounds like many swedes are just self restricting anyway

sydthebeat

I see Swedens test numbers jumped by 20,000 over night

cgcsb

Bushmaster64 wrote: »

Clearly obvious now that Sweden have ballsed it up. By far the worst of the Scandinavian countries. More deaths than any other country compared to the number of cases.

I mean maybe we didn't expect left wing Sweden to sacrifice their older population with such disregard, but it's always been a bit of an odd country. They might just have said "feck it" take the hit on deaths, the health system can cope with the cases and at the end of it all their economy may be the best in Europe.

The hard left have sometimes shown disdain toward older people, maybe that's at play here.

I suppose it frees up more social housing units so they can bring in more young Iraqi chaps. :pac:

cgcsb

niallo27 wrote: »

Using rate of infection is wrong, it's all about deaths and icu numbers. For example by using postive cases, sweden has the same number per population as norway or denmark. Limited lockdown but same chance of testing postive.

Danish people actually socialise with each other on a regular basis though. Swedish people are natural house hatchers.

cgcsb

Bushmaster64 wrote: »

How much bigger is Sweden than Ireland? Ireland has much more of a dense population than Sweden and still doing better than them.

Lots of left wing Sweden lovers are going to be very disappointed at the end of all this to see how the poster child for 'caring' socialism put the economy ahead of the people.

But who were the people left behind? answ: old folks, who were the generation that used forced sterilisation to reduce the welfare bill.

biko

cgcsb wrote: »

I suppose it frees up more social housing units

In a sense yes, and a freelance reporter for Sweden television couldn't be happier that old folks die

if old people die there will be jobs opened up

and

think about all the apartments that will be vacated when the old folks die. I'm beginning to think this virus is God's gift to millennials and Gen Z

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fnyadagbladet.se%2Finrikes%2Fsvt-journalist-jublar-over-att-gamla-dor-av-coronaviruset%2F

growleaves

The Swedish really can't lose with their current tactic.

If they fall below the European average death rate they will be lauded.
If they fall on average, or maybe a tad high, they will be lauded because they didn't lock down.
If they end up much higher they will just claim "we tried to save our economy".

They've been around the middle of the European average the whole time, and may well stay there. Making the rest of Europe look absurd.

Also if deaths spike, many people won't accept the "economy" justification. They didn't accept it when it was Dominic Cummings trying it.

growleaves

In a sense yes, and a freelance reporter for Sweden television couldn't be happier that old folks die

Despicable.

wakka12

Sweden reports another 130 death today

biko

1347 dead out of 12672 reported cases
10.6 death rate

biko

In case anyone wonders if Sweden is doing something wrong, they are better than others.

Deaths in the corona virus are measured in various ways around the globe, but no one can measure as accurately as Sweden, according to state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vasabladet.fi%2FArtikel%2FVisa%2F363858

2u2me

biko wrote: »

1347 dead out of 12672 reported cases
10.6 death rate

If their testing is not good no point using that.

I had a look at the trend in deaths, doesn't look good. About a doubling every week.

wakka12

biko wrote: »

In case anyone wonders if Sweden is doing something wrong, they are better than others.


https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vasabladet.fi%2FArtikel%2FVisa%2F363858

Like us, it just means the number of deaths is even worse outside of Sweden and Ireland than is thought..as we are are counting nursing and home deaths. Id say its wrong to say the situation in Ireland and Sweden is 'better', they are simply more accurate, the number of deaths in Sweden and Ireland from coronavirus is a lot over the last 5 weeks. In Spain, Italy, UK, Belgium, its astounding

biko

One of my favs Tubers delves into the Swedish situation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJbkEEewzlE

biko

biko wrote: »

In case anyone wonders if Sweden is doing something wrong, they are better than others.


https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vasabladet.fi%2FArtikel%2FVisa%2F363858

2u2me wrote: »

If their testing is not good no point using that.

You must have missed my post so I quoted it for you.
Sweden is measuring better than anyone else.
Don't doubt Sweden again

Memnoch

biko wrote: »

You must have missed my post so I quoted it for you.
Sweden is measuring better than anyone else.
Don't doubt Sweden again

That article is behind a pay wall. Can you please post the relevant bits which shows how they are accurate?

Last week they had done 54,700 tests. Currently they are at 74,600. So that is about 20,000 tests in one week. We are criticizing the UK for not doing that many in one day.

In comparison, Norway have conducted 130,000 tests.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

From an outsider's perspective they seem to be under testing severely.

wakka12

Memnoch wrote: »

That article is behind a pay wall. Can you please post the relevant bits which shows how they are accurate?

Last week they had done 54,700 tests. Currently they are at 74,600. So that is about 20,000 tests in one week. We are criticizing the UK for not doing that many in one day.

In comparison, Norway have conducted 130,000 tests.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

From an outsider's perspective they seem to be under testing severely.

I think the article refers to Swedens reporting of deaths specifically

Memnoch

wakka12 wrote: »

I think the article refers to Swedens reporting of deaths specifically

I fail to see how they can be measuring mortality figures accurately if they are severely under testing?

Perhaps the article clarifies this?

Glenbhoy

wakka12 wrote: »

I think the article refers to Swedens reporting of deaths specifically

And it seems to be quoting the guy behind Sweden's strategy, so whilst maybe accurate, it's not the 3rd party verification that would be useful.

biko

This RTE article looks at Sweden's efforts so far.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0414/1130498-sweden-approach-coronavirus/

"We do not have a strategy that aims at herd immunity at all"
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde

"Partly that we are on different places on the exposition curve, partly that we in Sweden, unfortunately, have had a large spread of contagion in elderly homes, something you have not seen in the other Nordic countries. And this we, of course, continue to analyse, why Swedish elderly homes have been exposed so much compared to other countries.
Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell

and the opposition

"We don't have a choice, we have to close Stockholm right now," said Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler, Professor of Microbial Pathogenesis at the Karolinska Institute.

"We must establish control over the situation, we cannot head in to a situation where we get complete chaos. No one has tried this route, so why should we test it first in Sweden, without informed consent?" she said.

Breezin

It's tempting, and probably comforting, to think that because we are 'doing more' we ultimately will be more effective in fighting the virus. But the Swedes are quite honest in saying there are unknowns attached to both approaches. From Business Insider:

Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist, insists that Sweden's approach still seems to make sense, though he also acknowledges that the world is in uncharted territory with the virus.
He argues that while Sweden might have more infections in the short term, it will not face the risk of a huge infection spike that Denmark might face once its lockdown is lifted.

Lars Ostergaard, chief consultant and professor at the Department of Infectious Diseases at Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark, agrees it is too soon to know which approach is best.

"Every day a person is not being infected because of the strict lockdown, we are a day closer to a cure," Ostergaard said, underlining the advantage of the Danish approach. But he acknowledges that the long-term consequences of a locked-down community could also be "substantial."

"There is no right or wrong way," Ostergaard said. "No one has walked this path before, and only the aftermath will show who made the best decision."

Meanwhile, have a look at those 'anti-social' Swedes selfishly enjoying themselves... If it's a 50/50, I know which option I prefer.

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

I didn't say they do. Air pollution is a risk factor for victims of respiratory diseases hence it affects how many people will end up in ICU, and it differs between countries.

Then why were you quoting me?

Pointless abuse.

It's not abuse, don't post nonsensical ramblings that appear to have nothing to do with the post quoted.

coastwatch

Memnoch wrote: »

That article is behind a pay wall. Can you please post the relevant bits which shows how they are accurate?

Last week they had done 54,700 tests. Currently they are at 74,600. So that is about 20,000 tests in one week. We are criticizing the UK for not doing that many in one day.

In comparison, Norway have conducted 130,000 tests.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

From an outsider's perspective they seem to be under testing severely.

Biko was being (very very) sarcastic about the claim by Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, that they are measuring the spread more accurately than anywhere else.

Biko is in Norway btw.

Att vara en hest

again.. You don't get the death rate by dividing death by known cases... You need total case, which is a big X - especially in the case of Sweden where the amount of testing is very low.

There's nothing to say that Sweden's death rate is any higher than other countries, so far the intensive care units are not overcrowded etc.. All this talk about flattening the curve was with the goal to not overwhelm the healthcare system right? It's now 2(+) months since infection started spreading in Sweden and the healthcare system is not overwhelmed despite fewer restrictions than other countries... Maybe herd immunity will work out for Sweden in the end?

I know you'd love to see Sweden fail Biko and I get that you don't like the current government, but this tactic is not chosen by the government but rather FHM.

CraftySue

With the HIV virus, it was discovered Nordic countries had a higher percentage of natural immunity, with the Swedish community having the highest level of immunity with approximately 10% of their population immune to the HIV virus. This was put down as a throw back to various medieval plagues. I wonder if we'll find Sweden, along with other Nordic countries might have a similar natural community immunity to the coronavirus.