Sweden avoiding lockdown

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Charlie14 hasnt posted in this thread for a long time... Charlie what are your views on a country of 10 million people with no lockdown or face masks having 1 death with covid on average per day since July?

PS there are more people on that bloody Swedish platform waiting for a train than I see inside of my train in the morning going to Connolly.....

charlie14 wrote: »

With your attention span shot to hell perhaps you really should consider spending less time on these threads and searching for silly little videos.
I posted here yesterday.


If you have been so eager to interact with me, why have you been running away from answering questions I have put to you on the relaxation of restrictions thread ?
Even shamefully attempting to backseat moderate to do so.

Charlie - you dont disappoint.

Ginger n Lemon

Vieira82 wrote: »

by the way Norway, it's closest neighbor with half a population but about a million higher than Ireland, had only 154 cases reported yesterday.

Let's compare a few countries just for the hell of it:

Sweden: over 2200 cases
Norway: 154 cases
Ireland: over 800 cases
Portugal: over 1200 cases for the 4th day in a row on a population of over 10 Million. Biggest hospital in Northern Portugal now on level 3 alert as ICU beds almost full with covid patients!

But all wrong... all those youtube videos are clearly right...

321123 wrote: »

You do realise that yesterday's figure of 2200 cases and 5 deaths for Sweden are for 4 days (Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday)?

You call people arrogant dicks but can't even botter to check the meaning of the figures before you report them...

Tell me why the Swedish testing system is flawed? Unlike the Irish you don't even need a referral or go through a GP to have a test, just go and have one or order one online for free (delivered and collection by taxi) and you have the result the next day.

This thread did produce some classics over the last few months, this 1 is up there with the very best.

Vieira82

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

This thread did produce some classics over the last few months, this 1 is up there with the very best.

right! someone assuming a mistake is a classic is it?

Funny though you don't address anything else? Because you know you are wrong but your half assed theories don't hold up and you got nothing.

I'll keep waiting for you to debunk everything I wrote yesterday. Which you can't! Unless you go back to your youtube videos and facebook posts.

Oh by the way... someone assuming their mistakes is nothing wrong. It is though, something you clearly are unable to do in your sad alternative reality existence

Wompa1

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Funny that, Sweden with 10m people and no lockdown or social distancing on public transport, or masks, averages less deaths per day than Ireland with 4.9m people over last 4 weeks.

We need to double our efforts and wear 2 masks instead of 1 to stop the spread. :rolleyes: All retail should close to combat the spread of the virus :rolleyes:

You should check out Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea's numbers. Much larger countries. More cities that are densely populated AND most importantly a much, much smaller death count. These countries were also back operating closer to normal sooner than Sweden.

Also, take into account that Ireland overcounts deaths compared to most of the world. Ireland took the advice early to count probable cases at death and has consistently counted deaths that occurred outside of hospitals.

mcsean2163

Why is Czech so bad and Slovakia is fine?

There's the obvious that medical professionals in Ireland refuse to investigate. A clear difference between western Europe and Thailand/ Vietnam. But let's all ignore it because it's only statistics.

Ginger n Lemon

Vieira82 wrote: »

right! someone assuming a mistake is a classic is it?

Funny though you don't address anything else? Because you know you are wrong but your half assed theories don't hold up and you got nothing.

I'll keep waiting for you to debunk everything I wrote yesterday. Which you can't! Unless you go back to your youtube videos and facebook posts.

Oh by the way... someone assuming their mistakes is nothing wrong. It is though, something you clearly are unable to do in your sad alternative reality existence

Vieira82

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Why is Czech so bad and Slovakia is fine?

There's the obvious that medical professionals in Ireland refuse to investigate. A clear difference between western Europe and Thailand/ Vietnam. But let's all ignore it because it's only statistics.

Here's an article from Nature comparing the death rates in numerous countries. Interesting you mentioned Slovakia as they seem to not have been much affected by it?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1112-0

Wompa1

mcsean2163 wrote: »

A clear difference between western Europe and Thailand/ Vietnam.

For Thailand:
1.) Strict lockdowns at the beginning including curfews. Most of which lasted into June.
2.) Strict enforcement e.g. Fine and arrest for breaking curfew. If you want to visit Thailand you must quarantine for 14 days. You are taken from the airport straight to a hotel that you pay for and must remain until quarantine is up.
3.) Masks were seen as no big deal there from early on as a lot of people already wore them voluntarily for hygiene and pollution reasons. There wasn't the same education curve we had here.

It's estimated that their GDP may shrink by over 8% this year but they have so far controlled the virus.

Vieira82

Wompa1 wrote: »

For Thailand:
1.) Strict lockdowns at the beginning including curfews. Most of which lasted into June.
2.) Strict enforcement e.g. Fine and arrest for breaking curfew. If you want to visit Thailand you must quarantine for 14 days. You are taken from the airport straight to a hotel that you pay for and must remain until quarantine is up.
3.) Masks were seen as no big deal there from early on as a lot of people already wore them voluntarily for hygiene and pollution reasons. There wasn't the same education curve we had here.

It's estimated that their GDP may shrink by over 8% this year but they have so far controlled the virus.

Also Japan and South Korea and notice we're not mentioning "big" China and it's record of human rights violation showing thousands at the great wall recently, having 11 cases reported recently and going to test 9 million citizens because of those 11 cases...

mcsean2163

Vieira82 wrote: »

Here's an article from Nature comparing the death rates in numerous countries. Interesting you mentioned Slovakia as they seem to not have been much affected by it?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1112-0

Interesting article but data from may 2020. Czech have made one change in their national medical policy which Slovakia did not but it's not allowed to be discussed because only lunatics talk about such things and only PhDs can ask questions.

I raise Czech and Slovakia as they used to be the same country.

I am the lunatic for discussing the obvious not the people who refuse to discuss the question. It is dangerous to use logic.

mcsean2163

Vieira82 wrote: »

Also Japan and South Korea and notice we're not mentioning "big" China and it's record of human rights violation showing thousands at the great wall recently, having 11 cases reported recently and going to test 9 million citizens because of those 11 cases...

South Korea effectively changed its national policy this year. Japan has a different policy to Western Europe. If you've been to Thailand/ Vietnam and think there's anyway they're more compliant than Ireland... Peru with its strict lockdown would be similar to Thailand/Vietnam. China has a different policy.

Czech very strong on masks. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-czech-idUKKCN25D1HE

Wompa1

mcsean2163 wrote: »

South Korea effectively changed its national policy this year. Japan has a different policy to Western Europe. If you've been to Thailand/ Vietnam and think there's anyway they're more compliant than Ireland... Peru with its strict lockdown would be similar to Thailand/Vietnam. China has a different policy.

Czech very strong on masks. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-czech-idUKKCN25D1HE

Been to Thailand. Have family in Thailand. Have no doubt they were more compliant. They had proper enforcement. We have it good here, we had temporary law changes and even at that, how many were arrested at the checkpoints back in April?

I'm living in a touristy part of Ireland. The UK and Dutch reg plates started to flood back in around June. No masks, no quarantine. Americans were coming in when things were still bonkers there and lowering here and they weren't quarantining, many also not wearing masks.

Back at the end of July, we were showing a steady increase of travel related cases and then suddenly it stopped rising despite the fact we had more and more tourists coming in. We instead started seeing a big bump in community transmissions.

We chased the little bit of tourism we could get before the end of the summer which bumped up the cases which then got exasperated as locals started to socialize more, pubs reopened and kids went back to school. If we had done a better job enforcing quarantine, the baseline would have been lower when things started to re-open.

In hindsight, when there was no intention to actually contain the virus, we should have just had the pubs re-open back in early July.

mcsean2163

Wompa1 wrote: »

Been to Thailand. Have family in Thailand. Have no doubt they were more compliant. They had proper enforcement. We have it good here, we had temporary law changes and even at that, how many were arrested at the checkpoints back in April?

I'm living in a touristy part of Ireland. The UK and Dutch reg plates started to flood back in around June. No masks, no quarantine. Americans were coming in when things were still bonkers there and lowering here and they weren't quarantining, many also not wearing masks.

Back at the end of July, we were showing a steady increase of travel related cases and then suddenly it stopped rising despite the fact we had more and more tourists coming in. We instead started seeing a big bump in community transmissions.

We chased the little bit of tourism we could get before the end of the summer which bumped up the cases which then got exasperated as locals started to socialize more, pubs reopened and kids went back to school. If we had done a better job enforcing quarantine, the baseline would have been lower when things started to re-open.

In hindsight, when there was no intention to actually contain the virus, we should have just had the pubs re-open back in early July.

I worked in a Thailand factory a while back. It wasn't glamorous ex pat life. The people lived in the factory, a bit like a prison. We were staying in a hotel and the town down the road, not Bangkok, might have as well been called brothel town.

But believe what you like. Ignore the obvious difference between Peru and Thailand.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53150808

The lockdown in Peru started on 16 March - before the UK and some other European countries - and continued until the end of June.

This made it one of the longest in the world.

The county's borders were shut, curfews were imposed, and people could leave their homes for essential goods only - but infections and deaths continued to rise.

Vieira82

mcsean2163 wrote: »

South Korea effectively changed its national policy this year. Japan has a different policy to Western Europe. If you've been to Thailand/ Vietnam and think there's anyway they're more compliant than Ireland... Peru with its strict lockdown would be similar to Thailand/Vietnam. China has a different policy.

Czech very strong on masks. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-czech-idUKKCN25D1HE

Indeed! I used to be a fervent anti-masker when this started in March and was on a group where loads of Czech where advocating for mask wear so we used to have very vivid arguments about it. I'm pretty sure they avoided the first wave as literally everyone was making masks and using them as early as mid-march. I am saying there where at least five posts a day on the group from czechs showing campagins about using the mask.

But in the Summer they literally let their guard down. They made this huge open air celebration for defeating covid in Prague, and after that cases kept rising and seems people literally thought it was over and started being careless (a bit like everywhere).

Keep in mind though... no one ever said the mask is your one way to be covid safe. It's a small part in a number of other actions to prevent transmission. And as it was said in other topics, not even WHO advocates for lockdowns, lockdowns is the last measure to control a pandemic.

WHO fully advocates that if people follow guidelines AND governments implement an efficient track and tracing system that this can be controlled like many countries have shown, in the examples you mentioned.

Vieira82

Wompa1 wrote: »

Been to Thailand. Have family in Thailand. Have no doubt they were more compliant. They had proper enforcement. We have it good here, we had temporary law changes and even at that, how many were arrested at the checkpoints back in April?

I'm living in a touristy part of Ireland. The UK and Dutch reg plates started to flood back in around June. No masks, no quarantine. Americans were coming in when things were still bonkers there and lowering here and they weren't quarantining, many also not wearing masks.

Back at the end of July, we were showing a steady increase of travel related cases and then suddenly it stopped rising despite the fact we had more and more tourists coming in. We instead started seeing a big bump in community transmissions.

We chased the little bit of tourism we could get before the end of the summer which bumped up the cases which then got exasperated as locals started to socialize more, pubs reopened and kids went back to school. If we had done a better job enforcing quarantine, the baseline would have been lower when things started to re-open.

In hindsight, when there was no intention to actually contain the virus, we should have just had the pubs re-open back in early July.

Ireland has to be the most perfect example of a country that literally almost curbed this, we where having single digit cases a day! And then it all failed...

And all it really would have take was to ensure people coming in would have really been controlled on their time here.... Is that really that much to ask of your fellow tourists?!

This was a complete failure of the current government, more worried about substituting ministers, golfgate and getting more junior ministers, than actually lead a country through this. I really hope there will be consequences to them for this...

the incredible pudding

Vietnam closed shop for 4-5 months starting way back before Tết in January (Sister lives in Hanoi for the past five years). It was only around May that they started opening things up. They did wonderfully to lock the spread of it given the proximity to China especially given there's so many multigenerational households there. Loads of one room apartments with whole families. They had enforced quarantine (then just stopped accepting non natives into the country unless you had exemption), everything closed, fines for not having masks as well as a tracking system where you would know the degree of separation between you and someone that had contacted the virus. My sister herself was informed by the authorities when a friend of a friend contacted it.
They opened up in May, completely (bar non-natives being allowed back into the country and retaining quarantine on all incomers). Back in August there was an outbreak in Da-Nang and the whole city and surrounding area (Hoi-an too if I remember correctly) was locked down for ~7 weeks or so. It is a very, very serious approach, which can work if you have the legal recourse to enforce the policies and preferably a population that are more Confucianist than us individualist Western countries.

Wompa1

mcsean2163 wrote: »

But believe what you like. Ignore the obvious difference between Peru and Thailand.

I will believe what my family there tells me.

mcsean2163

the incredible pudding wrote: »

Vietnam closed shop for 4-5 months starting way back before Tết in January (Sister lives in Hanoi for the past five years). It was only around May that they started opening things up. They did wonderfully to lock the spread of it given the proximity to China especially given there's so many multigenerational households there. Loads of one room apartments with whole families. They had enforced quarantine (then just stopped accepting non natives into the country unless you had exemption), everything closed, fines for not having masks as well as a tracking system where you would know the degree of separation between you and someone that had contacted the virus. My sister herself was informed by the authorities when a friend of a friend contacted it.
They opened up in May, completely (bar non-natives being allowed back into the country and retaining quarantine on all incomers). Back in August there was an outbreak in Da-Nang and the whole city and surrounding area (Hoi-an too if I remember correctly) was locked down for ~7 weeks or so. It is a very, very serious approach, which can work if you have the legal recourse to enforce the policies and preferably a population that are more Confucianist than us individualist Western countries.

That's interesting, I didn't know they had done so much. Last time I was there was 2005 and it was chaotic around much of Vietnam, especially ho chi min.

Anyway, it's really surprising how they escaped with their porous borders, Cambodia, etc.

No point discussing obvious different national policy to Europe and America's.

mcsean2163

Wompa1 wrote: »

I will believe what my family there tells me.

Good for you.

However, I'd hazard a guess your family is not living in a factory, engaged in prostitution or living on the side of the road. It's like comparing Blackrock to Ballyfermot.

I met an Irish fella in Thailand, delighted that he could pay poor Thai to have sex with him for next to nothing. I gave him a good kick up the hole.

Hope your family are campaigning against exploitation of young Thai in the sex trade.

Anyway, no point talking about the obvious difference in national policy.

cnocbui

charlie14 wrote: »

It`s already pandemic. Admittedly being endemic it would not be great for the people or area in which it was present, but it would be an improvement on it being pandemic.

I would not be a great admirer of Matt Hancock, but in fairness to him the weight of evidence is on his side when it comes to acquired herd immunity.

You could give a masterclass in backing the wrong horse.

This week Matt Hancock condemned experts who dared question lockdown. Now, after two of them embarrassingly exposed his basic errors, Prof ANGUS DALGLEISH asks... How IS this petulant, shockingly ignorant minister still in a job?
...
]Like so many politicians, particularly on the Tory benches, Mr Hancock studied politics, philosophy and economics at Oxford. Perhaps conscious of his lack of a scientific background, his reaction to being challenged by a group of world-leading experts via the publication of the GBD last week was to scowl and dissemble.

And his shaky grasp of the science was quickly exposed by two of the GBD’s co-authors, Harvard University’s Dr Martin Kulldorff and Stanford’s Dr Jay Bhattacharya.

In a very pointed riposte to his dismissal of their argument, they said: ‘It is shocking that the Health Secretary does not have a basic understanding of infectious disease epidemiology.’
...

The truth is, we do have herd immunity against influenza and for measles.

While there is also an effective vaccine for the latter, herd immunity plays a vital part in protecting babies until they can be given the vaccine at a year old.
...
He should have been honest about the fact that for all the lives he insists will be ‘saved’ by lockdowns, there will be a dramatic rise in mental health problems, including depression and suicide.

And while quoting ridiculous, hypothetical figures within vast ranges about likely Covid mortality, he should have had the honesty to say that people will die because of lockdown, including many far younger than the average Covid patient, at 82.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840965/PROF-ANGUS-DALGLEISH-Matt-Hancock-survived-axe.html

For anyone who knows what it takes to be elected a fellow of a professional body:

Dalgleish was elected a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences in 2001 and is also a Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians, the Royal College of Pathologists and a Fellow of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

biko

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Funny that, Sweden with 10m people and no lockdown or social distancing on public transport, or masks, averages less deaths per day than Ireland with 4.9m people over last 4 weeks.

I understand you compare Sweden to Ireland because this is an Irish forum but it doesn't mean anything.
The two countries have nothing in common other than handling the pandemic badly, Sweden even worse than Ireland.
Sweden place 13th for deaths per million, Ireland 20th - out of 150+ countries.
Sweden's immediate neighbours Finland and Norway are in spots 68 and 74, far away from the top 20 infected countries.

Maybe herd immunity is going to work for us all but HSE cannot be trusted to protect the elderly while the virus burns itself out in the general population.

Andrewf20

cnocbui wrote: »

Why tout 500 cases a day as a sign of failure when Czechia has around 8,300 new cases a day? A country with about the same populaton as Sweden.

Czech Republic is a weird one. They didn't really have a wave of deaths in the spring. Worst day for deaths back then was 15. This could be their wave now.

Andrewf20

Interest perspective here on ivor Cummins. He picks apart some of ivors arguments. He makes some good points.

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/ivor-cummins-evaluating-some-european-unconventional-doubter-denier-viewpoints

mcsean2163

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Czech Republic is a weird one. They didn't really have a wave of deaths in the spring. Worst day for deaths back then was 15. This could be their wave now.

Explain Slovakia then. That's the point, they had similar first waves but have diverged this time. Czech did one thing significantly different to Slovakia this time around.

Andrewf20

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Explain Slovakia then. That's the point, they had similar first waves but have diverged this time. Czech did one thing significantly different to Slovakia this time around.

Its not an argument. It's just an observation.

mcsean2163

Andrewf20 wrote: »

Its not an argument. It's just an observation.

To me, it's a statement that assumes a wave isn't optional. It's like saying another wave of blindness caused by people stabbing themselves in the eye, if people didn't stab themselves in the eye they would not go blind.

Why not investigate what Slovakia did in September and at least try that? Thailand and Vietnam did the same, do did Estonia previously, etc. Why not try that?

laugh

https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

Andrewf20

mcsean2163 wrote: »

To me, it's a statement that assumes a wave isn't optional. It's like saying another wave of blindness caused by people stabbing themselves in the eye, if people didn't stab themselves in the eye they would not go blind.

Why not investigate what Slovakia did in September and at least try that? Thailand and Vietnam did the same, do did Estonia previously, etc. Why not try that?

I'm not really sure why you are seeing that. I said it 'could' be their wave not that it 'is' their wave.

Life is busy here. I'll investigate when I get a chance.

SeaBreezes

biko wrote: »

I understand you compare Sweden to Ireland because this is an Irish forum but it doesn't mean anything.
The two countries have nothing in common other than handling the pandemic badly, Sweden even worse than Ireland.
Sweden place 13th for deaths per million, Ireland 20th - out of 150+ countries.
Sweden's immediate neighbours Finland and Norway are in spots 68 and 74, far away from the top 20 infected countries.

Maybe herd immunity is going to work for us all but HSE cannot be trusted to protect the elderly while the virus burns itself out in the general population.

And sweden doesnt test the elderly, just uses morphine.
Those deaths dont count as covid deaths in their stats.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

You could give a masterclass in backing the wrong horse.




https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840965/PROF-ANGUS-DALGLEISH-Matt-Hancock-survived-axe.html

For anyone who knows what it takes to be elected a fellow of a professional body:

In all honesty I have no idea what point you are making.
Are you saying we have developed naturally acquired herd immunity for measles and influenza without vaccines ?