Sweden avoiding lockdown

eddie73

In years to come, Sweden will be judged. It is too early to judge now, but you have got to say, that they are doing very well over the past few months, despite not having a lock down.

It begs questions and debate farther afield.

eddie73

Joe_ Public wrote: »

If you want to understand what can happen if the virus is allowed to spread, consider the NW of England where an estimated 50 non covid patients are contracting the virus in hospitals every day.

https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/fifty-people-each-day-catching-covid-in-regions-hospitals/7028691.article

Also, according to the HSJ, there are currently more covid patients in hospitals in the NW than at anytime in the spring. They are close to approaching breaking point and have two choices - either start opening up extra "surge" capacity to cater for new influxes or cancel and suspend other treatments. They have chosen the latter option because opening up new capacity simply strains staff resources too much.

That's the reality. Maybe in Sweden and Germany with big spends and decent health systems, they can cope in those situations. But not everywhere can. Lockdowns are not a longterm solution and i don't know where anyone is arguing they are, but when everything else has failed and hospitals are in danger of being overwhelmed, there might not be any choice as the alternative is not just a spike in covid deaths, but in other illnesses as well.

Perhaps it is time we separated the 2 issues that are tangled.
Number of covid infections and number of covid deaths.

People seem to use these stats interchangeably, associating one with the other somehow.

The '2nd wave' has not seen the carnage that the r number would have suggested, nor is it likely to at this stage.

Hands Like Flippers

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

On course to open up further??

Where were you living this Summer when Ireland had its hospitality sector restricted this Summer while having 10-20 cases a day.

Essentially, with a vaccine, restrictions will be required until the metric for implementing those restrictions is changed drastically.

I could not agree more.

I personally would understand a brief lockdown if indeed ICU's were about do be overwhelmed but:
A. This argument has been used for many many weeks now when they clearly were not in any such danger and also May and June etc so the credibility of this argument is gone to a large degree for me.
B. Any time contrary arguments are dismissed without proper discussion (not here actually but in the media etc) I am inclined to think the mainstream view is weakly supported. Have seen recent posts on SM from doctors denouncing those who question the mainstream medical view because they aren't doctors for example.
C. More capacity should have been developed.
D. More staff trained.
E. Sweden.
F. Biggest erosion of individual freedoms and liberties since....
G. Sweden.
H. All the decision makers (in NI) are public sector workers.
I. No-one is speaking up for kids and how they are being punished and in some quarters blamed.

I am also puzzled as to why the majority (apparently) of us celts (Scots, Welsh, Irish) who I used to think of as freedom loving are apparently content with individual liberties being unilaterally removed. The hero worship in some quarters of NS in Scotland is most curious.

Joe_ Public

eddie73 wrote: »

Perhaps it is time we separated the 2 issues that are tangled.
Number of covid infections and number of covid deaths.

People seem to use these stats interchangeably, associating one with the other somehow.

The '2nd wave' has not seen the carnage that the r number would have suggested, nor is it likely to at this stage.

Absolutely not the point that was being made at all. Which is that, as in the instance cited, if hospitals are not safe spaces for people with whatever ailments to go, or even perceived to be very risky, then people will just simply stop presenting with medical problems altogether. And the knock on effect of that is more people dying at home from non covid illnesses and others then blaming that - as you can see by going back a couple of pages in this thread - on lockdowns among other things. And that is very misleading and disingenuous. And as said earlier, maybe countries like Sweden and Germany with very efficient health systems could cope ok with that, but others are not in that position and have to face the reality of what is confronting them which is that any sustained spread of the virus is going to put huge pressure on them, not just in one front but on several.

Wompa1

eddie73 wrote: »

In years to come, Sweden will be judged. It is too early to judge now, but you have got to say, that they are doing very well over the past few months, despite not having a lock down.

It begs questions and debate farther afield.

As Leo the Leak said on the Late Late back at the start of this hellscape, years after the dust settles a fuller story will reveal itself globally. Countries still aren't on the same page for counting deaths. Ireland is still likely overcounting while most are not.

It's looking like most countries including Ireland and Sweden will have to look at other countries who kept cases down and saved lives more successfully.

greyday

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

On course to open up further??

Where were you living this Summer when Ireland had its hospitality sector restricted this Summer while having 10-20 cases a day.

Essentially, with a vaccine, restrictions will be required until the metric for implementing those restrictions is changed drastically.

The pubs were kept closed for good reason, once they opened up it was back to the usual behaviour by the younger generation which is what NPHET and the government feared happening, cases gone through the roof again.
Unfortunately the hospitality sector is the highest risk of having super spreader events which resulted in restrictions lasting longer than other sectors while plans were formulated on how best to manage their reopening, it didn't work and probably won't work until an effective vaccine is widely available.
Lockdowns work in reducing the spread, the hard part seems to be keeping them down as behaviours have not changed enough so far.

SeaBreezes

Wompa1 wrote: »

As Leo the Leak said on the Late Late back at the start of this hellscape, years after the dust settles a fuller story will reveal itself globally. Countries still aren't on the same page for counting deaths. Ireland is still likely overcounting while most are not.

It's looking like most countries including Ireland and Sweden will have to look at other countries who kept cases down and saved lives more successfully.

Yeah sweden undercounting too..

https://twitter.com/fiothenerd/status/1319569756987469824?s=20

Russman

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

I could not agree more.

I personally would understand a brief lockdown if indeed ICU's were about do be overwhelmed but:
A. This argument has been used for many many weeks now when they clearly were not in any such danger and also May and June etc so the credibility of this argument is gone to a large degree for me.
B. Any time contrary arguments are dismissed without proper discussion (not here actually but in the media etc) I am inclined to think the mainstream view is weakly supported. Have seen recent posts on SM from doctors denouncing those who question the mainstream medical view because they aren't doctors for example.
C. More capacity should have been developed.
D. More staff trained.
E. Sweden.
F. Biggest erosion of individual freedoms and liberties since....
G. Sweden.
H. All the decision makers (in NI) are public sector workers.
I. No-one is speaking up for kids and how they are being punished and in some quarters blamed.

I am also puzzled as to why the majority (apparently) of us celts (Scots, Welsh, Irish) who I used to think of as freedom loving are apparently content with individual liberties being unilaterally removed. The hero worship in some quarters of NS in Scotland is most curious.

Maybe the majority of us Celts can see the bigger picture.
“Freedom” and “individual liberties” don’t mean doing whatever you want, and implicitly comparing Covid restrictions to the hard won actual freedom that countries enjoy today does a huge disservice to the term.

SeaBreezes

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

I could not agree more.

I personally would understand a brief lockdown if indeed ICU's were about do be overwhelmed but:
A. This argument has been used for many many weeks now when they clearly were not in any such danger and also May and June etc so the credibility of this argument is gone to a large degree for me.
B. Any time contrary arguments are dismissed without proper discussion (not here actually but in the media etc) I am inclined to think the mainstream view is weakly supported. Have seen recent posts on SM from doctors denouncing those who question the mainstream medical view because they aren't doctors for example.
C. More capacity should have been developed.
D. More staff trained.
E. Sweden.
F. Biggest erosion of individual freedoms and liberties since....
G. Sweden.
H. All the decision makers (in NI) are public sector workers.
I. No-one is speaking up for kids and how they are being punished and in some quarters blamed.

I am also puzzled as to why the majority (apparently) of us celts (Scots, Welsh, Irish) who I used to think of as freedom loving are apparently content with individual liberties being unilaterally removed. The hero worship in some quarters of NS in Scotland is most curious.

ICUs are maxed out now, anymore and they will have to start cancelling surgeries, and its only oct.

A. Yes. Lockdown stopped that wave, have you forgotten so soon? And yet still, crazy death toll in nursing homes. Dont those people count?

B. Contrary arguments based on BELIEF should be discounted. Facts count. Opinions, not so much.

C. Yes. Agreed.

D. Yes again, how though? Without endangering classes? And student nurses all in hospitals helping with the imaginary 'casedemic'

E. Sweden is a disaster. 6,000 dead from covid, 4,000 assisted deaths with morphine. Die after 30 days? Not covid. Odd that. 100s Drs walking out. 150,000 longhaulcovid, 1000s healthcare workers injured due to covid, cases rising again, lockdowns advised. Economy worse than neighbours. Norway death count 350, finland 250.

F. Since the last pandemic 1918.

G. Swedem, did i mention mandatory to send kids to school, no mask, fines and kids can be taken off younif not? Freedoms? What if your an at risk child or parent?

H. Decision makers are NPHET and government. Who would you suggest? Ivor Cummins? Nutritionist, fake facts, pandemic self declared expert?

I. Which kids? Over 18 is an adult. Younger than that school kid.

'Us celts' love freedom, yes. We also love our parents, grandparents, and friends.

We are educated, intelligent, smart enough to read and understand the science, and the threat this virus poses to both us, and those we love

Hands Like Flippers

SeaBreezes wrote: »

ICUs are maxed out now, anymore and they will have to start cancelling surgeries, and its only oct.

A. Yes. Lockdown stopped that wave, have you forgotten so soon? And yet still, crazy death toll in nursing homes. Dont those people count?

B. Contrary arguments based on BELIEF should be discounted. Facts count. Opinions, not so much.

C. Yes. Agreed.

D. Yes again, how though? Without endangering classes? And student nurses all in hospitals helping with the imaginary 'casedemic'

E. Sweden is a disaster. 6,000 dead from covid, 4,000 assisted deaths with morphine. Die after 30 days? Not covid. Odd that. 100s Drs walking out. 150,000 longhaulcovid, 1000s healthcare workers injured due to covid, cases rising again, lockdowns advised. Economy worse than neighbours. Norway death count 350, finland 250.

F. Since the last pandemic 1918.

G. Swedem, did i mention mandatory to send kids to school, no mask, fines and kids can be taken off younif not? Freedoms? What if your an at risk child or parent?

H. Decision makers are NPHET and government. Who would you suggest? Ivor Cummins? Nutritionist, fake facts, pandemic self declared expert?

I. Which kids? Over 18 is an adult. Younger than that school kid.

'Us celts' love freedom, yes. We also love our parents, grandparents, and friends.

We are educated, intelligent, smart enough to read and understand the science, and the threat this virus poses to both us, and those we love

Leo Varadkar today.
@LeoVaradkar
"Hospital overcrowding is at a record low for this time of year and has been for months. We have beds free in most hospitals most of the time. Please do not be afraid to go to hospital is you need to."

SeaBreezes

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

Leo Varadkar today.
@LeoVaradkar
"Hospital overcrowding is at a record low for this time of year and has been for months. We have beds free in most hospitals most of the time. Please do not be afraid to go to hospital is you need to."

ICU still maxed out with covid patients. And its only october.

Bit cynical

SeaBreezes wrote: »

ICU still maxed out with covid patients. And its only october.

The unfortunate thing is that very little immunity among the healthy population has been built up therefore now, coming into winter, we are running into trouble. A senior HSE consultant, Dr Martin Feeley, warned that this would happen but was forced to resign.

He suggested people at low risk from the virus should be exposed to it so they can develop herd immunity and reduce the risk to vulnerable groups.

“That is what is happening and yet the policy seems to be to prevent it,” he told The Irish Times.

“This should have been allowed to happen during the summer months before the annual flu season, to reduce the workload on the health service during winter months.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/hse-rejects-senior-doctor-s-comments-covid-19-is-less-severe-than-annual-flu-1.4353641

Wolf359f

Bit cynical wrote: »

The unfortunate thing is that very little immunity among the healthy population has been built up therefore now, coming into winter, we are running into trouble. A senior HSE consultant, Dr Martin Feeley, warned that this would happen but was forced to resign.

He suggested people at low risk from the virus should be exposed to it so they can develop herd immunity and reduce the risk to vulnerable groups.

“That is what is happening and yet the policy seems to be to prevent it,” he told The Irish Times.

“This should have been allowed to happen during the summer months before the annual flu season, to reduce the workload on the health service during winter months.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/hse-rejects-senior-doctor-s-comments-covid-19-is-less-severe-than-annual-flu-1.4353641

A controlled spread, the guy is a nutter. What he is advocating is totally unworkable. So allow or infect a young healthy person and assume they wont infect another and another, until the not so young and healthy end up infected?

What's his definition of young and healthy and how many a week need to be infected? If he suggested it, I'm sure he had the details to back up his claim?

Wolf359f

SeaBreezes wrote: »

ICU still maxed out with covid patients. And its only october.

Maxed out with covid patients.... they account for ~14% of ICU cases.

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

A controlled spread, the guy is a nutter. What he is advocating is totally unworkable. So allow or infect a young healthy person and assume they wont infect another and another, until the not so young and healthy end up infected?

What's his definition of young and healthy and how many a week need to be infected? If he suggested it, I'm sure he had the details to back up his claim?

Anonymous poster on boards vs retired doctor

Your right he is a nutter

I need to start paying more attention to one sided online opinions

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Anonymous poster on boards vs retired doctor

Your right he is a nutter

I need to start paying more attention to one sided online opinions

He's advocated a position, I am asking if he has any evidence or analysis to back it up.
How many young and healthy need to get infected in how short a time to achieve some community immunity?
I'm sure he has worked it all out, I mean he wouldn't be advocating a position without evidence to back up that his way is better than the current governments way.

charlie14

Wolf359f wrote: »

He's advocated a position, I am asking if he has any evidence or analysis to back it up.
How many young and healthy need to get infected in how short a time to achieve some community immunity?
I'm sure he has worked it all out, I mean he wouldn't be advocating a position without evidence to back up that his way is better than the current governments way.

Sweden had it all worked out back in March.

Johan Giesecke a former Swedish state epidemiologist (who on pandemics would, I imagine, be a bit further up the food chain than a HSE consultant) in March said it would have passed over Sweden like a storm and they would have herd immunity in one or two months.
I cannot why understand why some people are still pushing this knowing what they do now.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden had it all worked out back in March.

Johan Giesecke a former Swedish state epidemiologist (who on pandemics would, I imagine, be a bit further up the food chain than a HSE consultant) in March said it would have passed over Sweden like a storm and they would have herd immunity in one or two months.
I cannot why understand why some people are still pushing this knowing what they do now.

Well they do have quite low daily deaths at the moment with only 15 or so reported in the last week. Only Finland and Cyprus lower in the EU at present, Ireland higher by a factor of 4 on a per capita basis. This would bear out what the HSE consultant was saying.

Wolf359f

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well they do have quite low daily deaths at the moment with only 15 or so reported in the last week. Only Finland and Cyprus lower in the EU at present, Ireland higher by a factor of 4 on a per capita basis. This would bear out what the HSE consultant was saying.

And you think that Sweden will have a lower rate of deaths per capital this time around, due to some herd immunity?
They were pretty much last getting over their first wave, but are quickly getting into their second wave extremely fast.
Every country is at a different stage in their second wave in Europe, but you expect Sweden will differ some how?

Bit cynical

Wolf359f wrote: »

And you think that Sweden will have a lower rate of deaths per capital this time around, due to some herd immunity?
They were pretty much last getting over their first wave, but are quickly getting into their second wave extremely fast.
Every country is at a different stage in their second wave in Europe, but you expect Sweden will differ some how?

It is not that I think it. They are having a much lower daily rate of death per-capita than most of the EU.

They have rising daily cases, as with most of Europe, and this rise started around the same time as other countries, but the rate of rise - the slope - is much less in Sweden. Also the cases would appear to be milder as they are not translating into deaths as one might expect given that cases have been rising for some weeks now.

So to answer your question, yes they will have lower deaths this time around other things being equal.

Wolf359f

Bit cynical wrote: »

It is not that I think it. They are having a much lower daily rate of death per-capita than most of the EU.

They have rising daily cases, as with most of Europe, and this rise started around the same time as other countries, but the rate of rise - the slope - is much less in Sweden. Also the cases would appear to be milder as they are not translating into deaths as one might expect given that cases have been rising for some weeks now.

So to answer your question, yes they will have lower deaths this time around other things being equal.

You need to research the rest of Europe. Sweden peaked months after Europe with their initial peak, this time around they are catching up much much quicker.

Most countries saw weeks of rises without deaths, but low and behold deaths are now following, bur for some reason again, you expect Sweden deaths to differ from Europe?

As I've said before, it's the same as America experienced before, cases rising and deaths falling, that quickly turned around. Deaths lag cases, you really have to acknowledge that.

xhomelezz

Bit cynical wrote: »

The unfortunate thing is that very little immunity among the healthy population has been built up therefore now, coming into winter, we are running into trouble. A senior HSE consultant, Dr Martin Feeley, warned that this would happen but was forced to resign.

He suggested people at low risk from the virus should be exposed to it so they can develop herd immunity and reduce the risk to vulnerable groups.

“That is what is happening and yet the policy seems to be to prevent it,” he told The Irish Times.

“This should have been allowed to happen during the summer months before the annual flu season, to reduce the workload on the health service during winter months.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/hse-rejects-senior-doctor-s-comments-covid-19-is-less-severe-than-annual-flu-1.4353641

There's a good write up on that topic here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

If the government wanted to do something to cut the death rate by 60 % from COVID they would be throwing money and resources at the nursing homes. And throwing it at elderly not in nursing homes would bring it up to 95%. But Saint Tony says we can't do anything, even though we can shut the whole country down put hundreds of thousands out of work and borrow record amounts of money.

Moving over 4000 patients at the height of the pandemic into nursing homes where we broke all records internationally for deaths there was something NPHET and the HSE oversaw. Why are we in full lockdown now? The evidence isn't there for it at all. Even when totally out of control like never happened here, this is no worse than a bad flu season, as can be seen from the Belgian paper below, and evey paper published on this.

The second wave of deaths hasn't happened internationally, it's a ripple. again Belgium at 10k cases / day for 2 months now.

Zero deaths under 45. Lower than flu for under 70s and comparable in over 70s. "Long COVID" - 2% have any effects after 90 days. Again comparable to flu. We are destroyed every aspect of our society and health for the sake of a bad flu season. Even Belgium have had 2 flu seasons with comparable death rates. All in the paper.

I only picked this paper because its a nice summary of all of the findings.

I'm not a 5G nut or an antinvaxxer. I'm a qualified scientist working all my life in engineering and IT. I understand the mathematical models behind this.

Time to shout STOP. The emperor has no clothes.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.20.20136234v1


Everything he says is correct.and evidence based.

[url] https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/dr-martin-feeley-young-and-healthy-majority-need-to-be-allowed-to-live-1.4362503?mode=amp[/url]

I keep pinching myself every day. I can't believe this is actually happening.

The Swedes are right. They screwed up on nursing homes almost as badly as we did. That's why their deaths are higher than peer countries.

Bit cynical

Wolf359f wrote: »

You need to research the rest of Europe. Sweden peaked months after Europe with their initial peak, this time around they are catching up much much quicker.

Well no, they peaked at most couple of weeks after most of Europe.

Most countries saw weeks of rises without deaths, but low and behold deaths are now following, bur for some reason again, you expect Sweden deaths to differ from Europe?

I do expect deaths in Sweden to rise but not to the same extent as other countries in the EU with similar levels of restrictions. The reason for this is that restrictions were very low throughout most of the outbreak in Sweden and this meant that a far greater proportion of the population had some exposure and so there's a degree of collective immunity and protection which means relatively low deaths without damaging restrictions and lockdowns. Why does this seem controversial to you?

It may still be possible for some other countries to avoid deaths but if they see significant rises they must impose very strict lockdowns to avoid deaths.

This is what is happening in Czechia at the moment. They did not experience much of an outbreak during Spring and Summer and conseqently did not develop much immunity but now, sadly, they are suffering high daily deaths.

eddie73

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well no, they peaked at most couple of weeks after most of Europe.



I do expect deaths in Sweden to rise but not to the same extent as other countries in the EU with similar levels of restrictions. The reason for this is that restrictions were very low throughout most of the outbreak in Sweden and this meant that a far greater proportion of the population had some exposure and so there's a degree of collective immunity and protection which means relatively low deaths without damaging restrictions and lockdowns.

It may still be possible for some other countries to avoid deaths but if they see significant rises they must impose very strict lockdowns to avoid deaths.

This is what is happening in Czechia at the moment. They did not experience much of an outbreak during Spring and Summer and conseqently did not develop much immunity but now, sadly, they are suffering high daily deaths.

This is quite encouraging.

There is an argument around partial exposure, (ie the exposure you get to the virus when wearing a mask), being beneficial in terms of building up resilience to the illness. The notion that herd immunity is where it is at is folly. There is degrees of resistance to virus infections, but most people would be vulnerable the following season nonetheless.

On the one hand you have people thinking that herd immunity is the answer and it is back to business, and on the other you have the lock down/vaccine argument, which is unrealistic as it is massively damaging to the economy.

The reality is that we are going to live with this virus despite our best attempts at containing it or developing vaccines against it.

This is exactly the reason that calibrated exposure to this virus is in the long run, a necessary strategy in dealing with this virus.

how we calibrate this will 99% be down to personal responsibility.

Vieira82

What we should be following:

As cases began skyrocketing this summer, Andrews put in place the type of strict anti-epidemic measures that governments in Western Europe and the United States have been hesitant to enact out of fear of damaging the economy and trampling on civil liberties.

From a public health standpoint, Andrews' decision appeared to have worked. While cases in Europe continue to skyrocket to record-breaking levels and US President Donald Trump's chief of staff said the United States "will not be able to contain the pandemic," Victoria appears to have done just that.

East Asian governments including those in China, South Korea and Taiwan have not needed to put in place such restrictions because early efforts to contain the virus focused on testing and contact tracing, combined with the readiness of their respective populations to wear masks and follow social distancing guidelines, which helped keep the pandemic in check.

Andrews said Victoria was able to rein in the pandemic because of the public's willingness to endure hardship, listen to the science and follow the rules.
"I could not be prouder than I am today to lead a state that has showed the courage, the compassion, and the character to get this job done. But it is not yet absolutely finished," he said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/26/australia/australia-victoria-covid-19-intl-hnk/index.html

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well they do have quite low daily deaths at the moment with only 15 or so reported in the last week. Only Finland and Cyprus lower in the EU at present, Ireland higher by a factor of 4 on a per capita basis. This would bear out what the HSE consultant was saying.

Sweden are around two weeks behind Ireland and practically everywhere else in rising cases, but last week still had close to 8,500.
Sweden are also testing around 140,000 per week which is per capita 60% less than Ireland.
With 8.500 new cases from 140,000 tests the positivity is around 6%. Not much difference to our own of 6.2% for last week.
With those numbers I really cannot see where Sweden has herd immunity. Or indeed any immunity that is making any significant difference.

As we know, unfortunately deaths lag behind new confirmed cases by weeks and are dependent on who is infected. If elderly or vulnerable with underlying conditions then the mortality rate will be much higher than young and healthy.

eddie73

If the test figures are to be believed, then 6% is a good result considering there is no lockdown involved there or a very limited one for that mater.

Ultimately, we have to look at death rates or critically ill rates before we have a true picture of the virus, anywhere. You could have a test result tomorrow in Sweden of 100,000 positive cases and zero deaths in 4 weeks time. (not likely but using this as an example). The point is that infection rates should only be seen relative to critically ill or dead if we are going to insist on locking down the economy the way that we and all others are doing this year.

99nsr125

eddie73 wrote: »

If the test figures are to be believed, then 6% is a good result considering there is no lockdown involved there or a very limited one for that mater.

Ultimately, we have to look at death rates or critically ill rates before we have a true picture of the virus, anywhere. You could have a test result tomorrow in Sweden of 100,000 positive cases and zero deaths in 4 weeks time. (not likely but using this as an example). The point is that infection rates should only be seen relative to critically ill or dead if we are going to insist on locking down the economy the way that we and all others are doing this year.

Well that would only be the sensible thing to do right

No chance of that, twill only be the headline grabbing figures that get carried.

charlie14

eddie73 wrote: »

If the test figures are to be believed, then 6% is a good result considering there is no lockdown involved there or a very limited one for that mater.

Ultimately, we have to look at death rates or critically ill rates before we have a true picture of the virus, anywhere. You could have a test result tomorrow in Sweden of 100,000 positive cases and zero deaths in 4 weeks time. (not likely but using this as an example). The point is that infection rates should only be seen relative to critically ill or dead if we are going to insist on locking down the economy the way that we and all others are doing this year.

In regards to Sweden I do not see how 6% positivity can be looked on as good. It`s practically the same as Ireland with Ireland only a few days in lockdown and Sweden look to be round two weeks behind Ireland in new cases.
It does not indicate any greater level of immunity in Sweden than Ireland and it is certainly no indicator of herd immunity in Sweden.


Alternatively you could have 100,000 positive test results in Sweden tomorrow that would result in over 6,000 deaths. That was the mortality ratio for the last rise in Sweden`s confirmed cases.


What you re proposing as regards lockdown is putting the cart before the horse. Leave lockdown until you have a large number of infections throughout the community and it`s too late for it to have the effect of not doing it on time.
We have seen that already with the U.K. who played around with the herd immunity idea for too long, and to an extent with Italy and Spain who didn`t initially do it very well.