Sweden avoiding lockdown

sydthebeat

Att, I'm assuming your either in Sweden or Swedish?

Can you clarify if what was reported about karolinska hospitals triage policy was correct?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2020/04/12/2241617/elderly-coronavirus-patients-not-receiving-intensive-care-in-sweden-report/amp

biko

Att vara en hest wrote: »

again.. You don't get the death rate by dividing death by known cases... You need total case, which is a big X - especially in the case of Sweden where the amount of testing is very low.

When you cannot measure with unknown then you can measure with known variables. I find it a tad defeatist to say that because the total cases isn't know we can't measure at all.
We do have measuring points, known cases and deaths among known cases.
Possibly we can even extrapolate from these numbers to real life - unknown real number cases and unknown real number deaths.

Att vara en hest wrote: »

I know you'd love to see Sweden fail Biko and I get that you don't like the current government, but this tactic is not chosen by the government but rather FHM.

I don't like the Swedish government's approach, you're right. I think they a hiding behind FHM and their approach seems reckless.
That doesn't mean I want them to fail. I want someone more cautious to take over, like Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler.

Sweden's numbers indicates to me they are heading in the wrong direction, and I think it means unnecessary suffering for the most vulnerable - the old folks.

IAMAMORON

CraftySue wrote: »

With the HIV virus, it was discovered Nordic countries had a higher percentage of natural immunity, with the Swedish community having the highest level of immunity with approximately 10% of their population immune to the HIV virus. This was put down as a throw back to various medieval plagues. I wonder if we'll find Sweden, along with other Nordic countries might have a similar natural community immunity to the coronavirus.

LINK PLEASE

wakka12

CraftySue wrote: »

With the HIV virus, it was discovered Nordic countries had a higher percentage of natural immunity, with the Swedish community having the highest level of immunity with approximately 10% of their population immune to the HIV virus. This was put down as a throw back to various medieval plagues. I wonder if we'll find Sweden, along with other Nordic countries might have a similar natural community immunity to the coronavirus.

This has to be a joke surely. Humans cannot have natural immunity to a new disease , this isnt a scifi movie

2u2me

IAMAMORON wrote: »

LINK PLEASE

I don't see what's so unbelievable about this.

Apparently Americans and Asians are more lactose-intolerant than Europeans as they've been exposed to dairy for shorter time frame.

I'd imagine when they study populations you'll see small differences.

CraftySue

IAMAMORON wrote: »

LINK PLEASE

It's from reading Richard Dawkins, but there is information on the internet relating to the same. A higher percentage of those in Nordic countries had a natural immunity to the HIV virus, Sweden had a 10% immunity, this gradually reduced throughout Europe, until you reached Africa which had a 0% immunity to HIV. This all ties into how countries were affected previously to different medieval plagues years ago, and how people develop immunity. We might find it's a similar thing with Nordic countries to the coronavirus.

Not,ideal- but here is a link which relates somewhat to what I'm trying to get at.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-03/uol-bdw031005.php

IAMAMORON

CraftySue wrote: »

It's from reading Richard Dawkins, but there is information on the internet relating to the same. A higher percentage of those in Nordic countries had a natural immunity to the HIV virus, Sweden had a 10% immunity, this gradually reduced throughout Europe, until you reached Africa which had a 0% immunity to HIV. This all ties into how countries were affected previously to different medieval plagues years ago, and how people develop immunity. We might find it's a similar thing with Nordic countries to the coronavirus.

Not,ideal- but here is a link which relates somewhat to what I'm trying to get at.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-03/uol-bdw031005.php

That article was released 15 years ago. I would not be taking any chances if I were anyone, even if it is gospel it states that 90% of Scandinavians are susceptible to HIV infection.

HIV is also a retro virus, Covid 19 isn't.

It is a bad example, but there are virus's which certain communities and ethnicity will handle better than others, but no golden rules either.

Thanks for posting the link, it was interesting to read.

CraftySue

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It is a bad example, but there are virus's which certain communities and ethnicity will handle better than others, but no golden rules either.

I guess that was the point I was trying to make- from previous events in history some countries may have developed a certain immunity, which maybe why countries like Sweden can be less restrictive, or why Denmark has had low numbers and coming out of lockdown, and why countries closer to the Mediterranean had such a high death toll

HIV is also a retro virus, Covid 19 isn't.

The Swedish immunity to HIV most likely came from the bubonic plague, which .was a bacterial disease rather than a virus, but I think the science is that sometimes the antibodies developed to fight one disease can sometimes neutralise and fight other virus'/bacteria.
BCG vaccines are being researched at as a possibility to fight Covid 19. The BCG vaccine was used to fight tuberculosis, which is a bacterial disease , but researchers are looking into the possibility that the antibodies created may also reduce Covid -19 symptoms, and it may be a reason why at present Ireland has fewer deaths than other countries.

Like you said, not great examples, but I just to throw something else into the mix as to why Sweden might not need a full lockdown.

biko

biko wrote: »

1347 dead out of 12672 reported cases
10.6 death rate

133 deaths per million, Ireland is 98 or something.
They're over 33% higher then us...... Likely to worsen too IMO given recent days tally.

Blut2

Augeo wrote: »

133 deaths per million, Ireland is 98 or something.
They're over 33% higher then us...... Likely to worsen too IMO given recent days tally.

With no vaccine in sight for 18 months (at best), and quarantines having to loosen up for economic/psychological reasons everywhere a lot sooner than that, other countries will catch up to Sweden's per capita death rate very quickly though.

Sweden still haven't hit ICU capacity yet, which is the main thing - none of their deaths yet are "preventable" in that sense. They're all deaths that will/would have occurred anyway as the % infected gradually increases in the population.

loyatemu

Sweden was discussed on Prime Time last night, with interviews with a couple of relevant Swedes. They argued they are taking measures, just more targetted ones, but acknowledged it's a higher risk strategy.

Also an interesting debate on the program between an English pathology guy and Frank Skinner TCD immunologist Luke O'Neill about whether the lockdown is possibly doing more harm than good.

I think the elephant in the room in both debates is Italy; even if the virus is nowhere near as deadly as first feared, we've still seen what happens if you don't react quickly enough, what government is going to risk that (well, the Swedish one as it turns out).

Danzy

wakka12 wrote: »

This has to be a joke surely. Humans cannot have natural immunity to a new disease , this isnt a scifi movie

They can have what it takes to not get sick from it.

That's often true of all diseases.

It's far from science fiction, it's basic biology.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-03/uol-bdw031005.php

Sue gave it already above.

Heard a podcast with a swedish Doctor saying how 1/4 of the case fatalities were in the Somali population in Sweden.

That could be genetic, it could also be down to them not listening to social distancing, hygienic practice etc. Yet many others there do not accept Swedish norms.

Kivaro

Danzy wrote: »

Heard a podcast with a swedish Doctor saying how 1/4 of the case fatalities were in the Somali population in Sweden.

That could be genetic, it could also be down to them not listening to social distancing, hygienic practice etc. Yet many others there do not accept Swedish norms.

This could also be a reason why people of African ancestry are also bearing the brunt on deaths in New York city and other areas of the world. Socioeconomic factors also play a role.

biko

Swedish timeline
January 31, 2020: The first Swedish case was confirmed in Jönköping.

March 6: Domestic infection spread was confirmed for the first time.

March 10: Relatives are advised against hospital visits.

March 11: The first death occurred in Stockholm.

March 11: The World Health Organization found that the virus outbreak is a pandemic.

March 18: The National Board of Health and Welfare receives a government assignment to coordinate the expansion of the intensive care capacity.

March 19: A general recommendation on unnecessary travel within Sweden was issued.

March 27: The government announced that from March 29, public gatherings and public events with more than 50 people are prohibited.

April 16: 1,333 people have died in Sweden as a result of covid-19, according to the Public Health Authority. A significant majority are over 70 years of age.

fryup

So Sweden are avoiding lockdown and Greta is Swedish??? and the environment is improving because of covid lockdown hmmmmmm

biko

This virus did more for the environment than Greta could ever have dreamed of.

Widdensushi

biko wrote: »

This virus did more for the environment than Greta could ever have dreamed of.

so greta found a virus that will help the environment but the swedes have a natural immunity to !

fryup

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

exactly !

biko

Ok, this is serious tinfoil territory here.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urglg3WimHA

biko

https://c19.se/
12775 cases
1364 dead
death rate 10.7%

Breezin

This map shows Sweden with fewer active cases than Ireland

Edit: need to scroll down to see the interactive map. Map data is here.

ittakestwo

Augeo wrote: »

133 deaths per million, Ireland is 98 or something.
They're over 33% higher then us...... Likely to worsen too IMO given recent days tally.

To keep in perspective. Belgium has 450 deaths per million. They have now over taken Italy and Spain as highest deaths per million.

biko

Breezin wrote: »

This map shows Sweden with fewer active cases than Ireland

That's a day ago, but yes, it looks like Ireland has a tad more confirmed cases

Right now
Swedish gov (well the Health authority) https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
13216 cases

Irish gov https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/
13271 cases

Of course Sweden is larger, tests less etc..

sydthebeat

Widdensushi wrote: »

so greta found a virus that will help the environment but the swedes have a natural immunity to !

surely you are posting this with your tongue firmly in your cheek....

sydthebeat

Breezin wrote: »

This map shows Sweden with fewer active cases than Ireland

they will always have fewer active cases when they are not testing to the same rate as us.

we are testing at nearly 2.5 times that of sweden

4068ac1elhodqr

Widdensushi wrote: »

so greta found a virus that will help the environment but the swedes have a natural immunity to !

Immune to a point (see chart), for Greta yes, perhaps there is no better tool than a pandemic to curb global pollution/population.



Yesterday MPs in Sweden have given the government extra powers to curb the rising COVID-19 death toll in the country after a sudden rise in deaths.

Sweden also has about 1/2 the populaiton density of Ireland, and are somewhat socially distant by default.

Glenomra

Sweden's policy proving to have been really clever.

sydthebeat

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden's policy proving to have been really clever.

there is absolutely no data available to make this conclusion so far.

we cannot know if their approach is right for them until this all settles down.

their numbers today are following the trend of having high numbers midweek and lower numbers on the weekend.

IAMAMORON

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden's policy proving to have been really clever.

That is sweeping statement if ever I read one.

Time will tell, but IMO it has been a very "risky" policy, we have no idea if it will prove reckless or not yet. But they do currently have a high death rate. They may be developing a decent herd immunity and asymptomatic hosts and it is not a disaster … yet, I would give it a week or two at least. The UK did the same for a while and look at the finger pointing going on there.

kksaints

IAMAMORON wrote: »

That is sweeping statement if ever I read one.

Time will tell, but IMO it has been a very "risky" policy, we have no idea if it will prove reckless or not yet. But they do currently have a high death rate. They may be developing a decent herd immunity and asymptomatic hosts and it is not a disaster … yet, I would give it a week or two at least. The UK did the same for a while and look at the finger pointing going on there.

Sure is. Doesn't even look like its doing their economy much good either. GDP decline of 10% and Unemployment Rate of 13.5% estimated according to their Finance Minister in this Guardian article.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000