Sweden avoiding lockdown

Hands Like Flippers

Wompa1 wrote: »

Sure and he has no sway in public health globally, only in Sweden. In Sweden, he took a stab in the dark with no reason to believe it would work for Sweden or anywhere else. Remember back in July when he said he believed immunity was widespread in the population and now they are asking people in the south to restrict movements and that things are likely to get worse.

As daft as the UK Government is, at least they saw the error of their ways and back pedalled.

Tegnell says that it is every other country in Europe that is experimenting, not Sweden. In fairness I can't remember ever having been put into lockdown before and I am a fair age. He says that what most of Europe is doing is not the standard approach even if most countries decide to do it.

charlie14

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

Tegnell says that it is every other country in Europe that is experimenting, not Sweden. In fairness I can't remember ever having been put into lockdown before and I am a fair age. He says that what most of Europe is doing is not the standard approach even if most countries decide to do it.

That is like the adoring mother watching her army son`s passing out parade and remarking that everyone was out of step except her Johnny.

FintanMcluskey

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Sweden seems to be on track to have a normal number of deaths this year or at least not a huge amount of excess deaths. Mortality rate has been below baseline for a while now. Is it really likely that the increase in cases is going to lead to significantly more deaths than anywhere else by the end of the year? We know that the death rate for covid has fallen significantly since march/April, why would Sweden by any different?


https://emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/

Where the deaths occurred and the age of the deceased suggests a lot of vulnerable people died in a short space of time during wave 1.

If Sweden have a “normal” figure of excess deaths year this thread can be closed.

The argument will be over

gozunda

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Sweden seems to be on track to have a normal number of deaths this year or at least not a huge amount of excess deaths. Mortality rate has been below baseline for a while now. Is it really likely that the increase in cases is going to lead to significantly more deaths than anywhere else by the end of the year? We know that the death rate for covid has fallen significantly since march/April, why would Sweden by any different?


https://emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/

The devils in the detail.

During the 15th week of the year, we saw the highest death rate in Sweden this millenium. A total number of 2505 people, 358 a day, passed away. Not since the first week of year 2000 that many people have died in Sweden. The 14th and 16th week of 2020 is third and fourth respectively on that same list. The month of April is the deadliest in Sweden since the 1990s with 10 458 deaths. You have to go back to December 1993, when 11,057 people died, to find a higher figure. At that time, the flu was unusually malignant. If you go past that month, you have to look back to 1918 and the Spanish flu to find a more deadly month.

And guess what the years not over yet.

And neither is Covid-19.

And remember its not just about deaths but also those who get sick and need hospital resources

Europe not looking to good atm. Only time until Sweden sees the same swing imo

mcsean2163

99nsr125 wrote: »

It does not and cannot reduce the number of cases, it just elongates the timeframe.

You're conflating resource shortage with cfr of covid

You manage your resources as best you can but this in itself does nothing to reduce case numbers and the number of those who ultimately succumb

If icu's succumb more die. Hospital treatment can save lives etc.

Real Donald Trump

For those criticizing Sweden approach, please tell me how France, Belgium and the UK are doing with cases and deaths? Also dont those countries have mask mandates and fines in place for those who don't comply?

Vieira82

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

For those criticizing Sweden approach, please tell me how France, Belgium and the UK are doing with cases and deaths? Also dont those countries have mask mandates and fines in place for those who don't comply?

Like what I've written here for a month now, you can have a 100% population following these "suggested" guidelines (which you don't) you can have all the social distancing, masks, wash of hands whatever, as long as there's not an efficient track and trace system then they are all useless.

I'll have to agree with the Swedish guy if he said Europe is experimenting at the moment. Because it is! Belgium, if you follow the news, it's a complete joke of back and forth, leading epidemiologist, our Dr. Holohan, victim of attacks and now with 24/7 protection. Then government simply stopped listening to him and now they have the most cases per million in Europe.

People just don't care and people are starting to die as ICUs don't cope with it. Also, again hundreds of dead in Italy, UK and Spain. 20 or so in Portugal but beating new records of infections daily...

So in short, yes, Europe has failed completely. The consecutive governments complete failure to protect the people from this be it at a social, economic and health level. This will be studied for years to come. This absolute lack of leadership at all levels in Europe, including in Ireland of course.

Remember we're still in October, almost November. If nothing changes, it's going to be a very long autumn/winter until March...

So yes for the first time I'll agree with the guy from Sweden, Europe is experimenting with this now because it spent the whole summer trying to be normal instead of getting ready for winter. And now they're about to have it all blowing in their faces. As much as you have discovered about this virus in 8 months there's only enough ICU capacity and once that is reached there will be people dying left and right like it happened in March/April...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-27/u-k-and-france-report-most-deaths-since-first-covid-19-wave

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/1027/1174267-italy-figures/

And this not to say Sweden is all great and escaped this, like I said before, they're a few weeks behind the rest of Europe, my bet is on between 2000 and 3000 cases either tomorrow or by the beginning of next week.

This obviously meaning heard immunity failed completely specially because you simply can't get herd immunity from this at this stage as it has proven by many studies that thr anti-bodies against covid don't last.

And then there's long covid for those that did not die of it:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/covid-coronavirus-symptoms-health

https://www.theweek.co.uk/108499/coronavirus-long-covid-patients-left-with-low-iq-aged-brains

So what's the point in wanting herd immunity if you end up with a workforce that becomes inept to work? This crazy idea of going at all costs for money, for the economy will have way dire consequences than actually working to keep people away from this virus....

So thank your local/global lobbyist for this, to fatten their bank accounts even more while we're all getting screwed basically

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-have-billionaires-done-during-covid-19-well-their-wealth-has-reached-record-highs-12098262

Oh and I'll blatantly say it now, I bet my right arm most of the misinformation we see online about this is supported by big companies. Amazon for ex, was caught doing a defamation campaign against employees that tried to unionize, it never has been so easy to do so through social media or whats app so I'm almost 100% for sure they are behind this as they have the resources to do so and are the only ones winning while we spend hours in these discussions watching people getting sick and dying.

Gear up people... if you think March and April where bad for mental health and businesses, you have no idea what is coming your way in the next 6 months to a year.

P.S. - I'll gladly eat the words in this post if time proves me wrong. God! How I wish to be wrong!

j@utis

Vieira82 wrote: »

...
Gear up people... if you think March and April where bad for mental health and businesses, you have no idea what is coming your way in the next 6 months to a year.

P.S. - I'll gladly eat the words in this post if time proves me wrong. God! How I wish to be wrong!

Is it time to convert my savings into gold?

tobefrank321

If Covid 19 was finished as a problem by say Jan 1st 2022, then the Swedes would have got it wrong and everywhere else got it mostly right although with significant economic issues.

Problem is even with a vaccine its unlikely to be over by 2022. Based on what some experts are saying (eg Prime Time last night) we could be stuck with restrictions for years since the vaccine will never be fully effective or taken up by everyone. In that scenario the Swedes will have got it right in that they have attempted to live long term with the virus, whereas everywhere else just locks down every time there is a rise in cases.

If Ireland and the rest of Europe are still locking down in 2022 they'll look like complete idiots compared to Sweden.

Increasing ICU and introducing a limited set of restrictions that at the same time allows people live in relative normality is the only way to live with covid longterm and the Swedes have achieved this.

FintanMcluskey

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If Covid 19 was finished as a problem by say Jan 1st 2022, then the Swedes would have got it wrong and everywhere else got it mostly right although with significant economic issues.

Problem is even with a vaccine its unlikely to be over by 2022. Based on what some experts are saying (eg Prime Time last night) we could be stuck with restrictions for years since the vaccine will never be fully effective or taken up by everyone. In that scenario the Swedes will have got it right in that they have attempted to live long term with the virus, whereas everywhere else just locks down every time there is a rise in cases.

If Ireland and the rest of Europe are still locking down in 2022 they'll look like complete idiots compared to Sweden.

Increasing ICU and introducing a limited set of restrictions that at the same time allows people live in relative normality is the only way to live with covid longterm and the Swedes have achieved this.

I would disagree slightly.

The Swedes as of now have the correct approach.

That will change if the initial predicted death toll of 100k plus comes to pass this Winter

Breezin

charlie14 wrote: »

That is like the adoring mother watching her army son`s passing out parade and remarking that everyone was out of step except her Johnny.

Perhaps a more objective observer could remark that they, or their entire society, were marching blindly in the wrong direction in pursuit of simplistic solutions, as has happened at other critical historical junctures in Europe over the past century or so.

SeaBreezes

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If Covid 19 was finished as a problem by say Jan 1st 2022, then the Swedes would have got it wrong and everywhere else got it mostly right although with significant economic issues.

Problem is even with a vaccine its unlikely to be over by 2022. Based on what some experts are saying (eg Prime Time last night) we could be stuck with restrictions for years since the vaccine will never be fully effective or taken up by everyone. In that scenario the Swedes will have got it right in that they have attempted to live long term with the virus, whereas everywhere else just locks down every time there is a rise in cases.

If Ireland and the rest of Europe are still locking down in 2022 they'll look like complete idiots compared to Sweden.

Increasing ICU and introducing a limited set of restrictions that at the same time allows people live in relative normality is the only way to live with covid longterm and the Swedes have achieved this.

They wont. Once vaccines are available for the Health care workers and vulnerable populaton it will be business as usual.

Pziers alone have 100 million vaccines ready to go pending safety trials. China and Russia are already rolling out their vaccines. There is a LOT of money to be made and big pharma are all racing to get the prize.

Masks will become more common, but by Jan 2022 while covid may STILL be filling up hospitals, staff wont be sick, and services wont be crippled.

charlie14

I see Skane have now introduced Uppsala`s lockdown that`s not a lockdown.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

I see Skane have now introduced Uppsala`s lockdown that`s not a lockdown.

Which is the equivalent of level 2 in Ireland it seems

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

I see Skane have now introduced Uppsala`s lockdown that`s not a lockdown.

Have they closed down indoor dining, pubs, non essential retail, hotels and put up police check points to check why you are travelling more than 5km from home?

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Have they closed down indoor dining, pubs, non essential retail, hotels and put up police check points to check why you are travelling more than 5km from home?

There is no such thing as a universally agreed lockdown. There are many variations.
If Johan Nojo, the infection diseases doctor for Uppsala, described what Uppsala, (and now Skane), are doing as "It`s more a lockdown situation, but a local lockdown" then I would not see any reason to quibble with how he calls it.
It would not surprise me to see more going the same way now they have more control over making decisions for their own regions.

That was a bit weird yesterday though was it not.
Sweden had 16 deaths due to Covid-19 over the weekend, yet had 15 less deaths overall due to 31 being de-listed from just one area, Ostergotland.

Bit cynical

charlie14 wrote: »

There is no such thing as a universally agreed lockdown. There are many variations.
If Johan Nojo, the infection diseases doctor for Uppsala, described what Uppsala, (and now Skane), are doing as "It`s more a lockdown situation, but a local lockdown" then I would not see any reason to quibble with how he calls it.

Strictly speaking, though, it is not a lockdown.

Bit cynical

SeaBreezes wrote: »

They wont. Once vaccines are available for the Health care workers and vulnerable populaton it will be business as usual.

Unfortunately this assumes a degree of rationality on the part of governments.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

Strictly speaking, though, it is not a lockdown.

As I said there is no universal agreement defining what a lockdown is or is not.
If a region`s equivalent of Tegnell calls it a lockdown, than I would not see any great reason to question it.

sydthebeat

Bit cynical wrote: »

Strictly speaking, though, it is not a lockdown.

Strictly speaking, what we have right now is not a lockdown.... When compared with what wuhan went through

eddie73

Should Sweden not be experiencing x10 the deaths that they had back in April if the figures of infected people are to correspond?

greyday

eddie73 wrote: »

Should Sweden not be experiencing x10 the deaths that they had back in April if the figures of infected people are to correspond?

No they shouldn't but their death rate is going to climb a lot from where it is now.

humberklog

greyday wrote: »

No they shouldn't but their death rate is going to climb a lot from where it is now.

But isn't most countries? Or do you think Sweden's deaths from now on will be exponentially higher than EU's average?

greyday

humberklog wrote: »

But isn't most countries? Or do you think Sweden's deaths from now on will be exponentially higher than EU's average?

If they allow it run rampant I would expect their death rates to be higher than the rest of Europe, that is if we can get to a position where all Countries report deaths using the same criteria.

eddie73

greyday wrote: »

No they shouldn't but their death rate is going to climb a lot from where it is now.

https://corona.help/country/sweden

According to this resource, the deaths peak in a 2 month period between April and June. This was despite a seemingly large spike of infections the following month and the one we are currently in at the moment.

So maybe the figures were a lot higher back in March?
Not just in Sweden, everywhere, I wonder.

greyday

eddie73 wrote: »

https://corona.help/country/sweden

According to this resource, the deaths peak in a 2 month period between April and June. This was despite a seemingly large spike of infections the following month and the one we are currently in at the moment.

So maybe the figures were a lot higher back in March?
Not just in Sweden, everywhere, I wonder.

The Who criticised them in June and their death rate dropped......I wonder.
We know why the death rate dropped everywhere else as lockdowns reduced infections, we don't know why Sweden saw the same effect without the same type of lockdowns even though a lot of swedes self isolated.

FintanMcluskey

greyday wrote: »

The Who criticised them in June and their death rate dropped......I wonder..

Hold on a minute, the WHO criticised Sweden and later came out and said lockdowns should only be used to buy time?

Bit cynical

eddie73 wrote: »

https://corona.help/country/sweden

According to this resource, the deaths peak in a 2 month period between April and June. This was despite a seemingly large spike of infections the following month and the one we are currently in at the moment.

So maybe the figures were a lot higher back in March?
Not just in Sweden, everywhere, I wonder.

Actual infections were a lot higher everywhere as testing was much lower and less well targeted back then. This is particularly true of Sweden which put its resources into expanding ICU rather than testing.

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

If they allow it run rampant I would expect their death rates to be higher than the rest of Europe, that is if we can get to a position where all Countries report deaths using the same criteria.

But isn't this what Sweden's critics have been saying repeatedly since at least early May? - "If Sweden don't impose strict lockdowns like we have done, then in the next couple of weeks their daily deaths are going to go through the roof."

Instead the numbers consistently fell over a period of three months to one of the lowest levels in Europe and have stayed there for the last three months. For the last six months the critics have been wrong.

eddie73

Bit cynical wrote: »

But isn't this what Sweden's critics have been saying repeatedly since at least early May? - "If Sweden don't impose strict lockdowns like we have done, then in the next couple of weeks their daily deaths are going to go through the roof."

Instead the numbers consistently fell over a period of three months to one of the lowest levels in Europe and have stayed there for the last three months. For the last six months the critics have been wrong.

Yes this is confusing me too.

Unless the public are unofficially self isolating by their own standard and not the government's. This still wouldn't account for the number of businesses that remained open and spreading infection in the community.

Unless there is a less virulent strain of covid in the community and a worse one in the controlled environment of hospitals, nursing homes etc (aka hospital bugs).