Sweden avoiding lockdown

Vieira82

edit: double post

99nsr125

Vieira82 wrote: »

You cannot dilute a new cause of death because of previous years statistics. That's now how statistics work... if that logic would be correct then no one dies of anything and only the total matters.

Cancer deaths ... dont matter, heart attack deaths don't matter, car crash deaths don't matter

Because, according to you, it will only matter the grand total...

So according to you if in a year there's 5000 more deaths by car accident, it does not matter because it it does not impact the overall decade long average it's not a problem xD

This is completely flawed, ilogical and 100% not how statistics work or how they are used too... xD

I'd strongly suggest you take maths classes again....

Maths classes lol you have no idea of the statistical work I have done.

You're confusing dilution with proportionality and actually that is how statistics work, short, medium, long, trailing, normalised and adjusted. I'm talking about that drum that's rightly beaten excess deaths.

It's a certainty that people die from a variety of ailments, that's why we keep statistics to model the trend and see how we are doing and can do better.

The suppression of covid deaths cannot come at the expense of other curable medical conditions, you'll create what seem to be good numbers in the short term only to have a spike in the medium term.

The long term average is exceptionally important, it describes how society does for all causes of deaths and that very much matters.

You just seemed to be annoyed that I've highlighted that if total deaths remain within the band of the long term average then Sweden will have protected it's people and balanced it's resources correctly. There can only be elevated deaths with a new variable, the question is how much and we will have to wait for medium term data to become available until a definitive answer can be given.

charlie14

99nsr125 wrote: »

Maths classes lol you have no idea of the statistical work I have done.

You're confusing dilution with proportionality and actually that is how statistics work, short, medium, long, trailing, normalised and adjusted. I'm talking about that drum that's rightly beaten excess deaths.

It's a certainty that people die from a variety of ailments, that's why we keep statistics to model the trend and see how we are doing and can do better.

The suppression of covid deaths cannot come at the expense of other curable medical conditions, you'll create what seem to be good numbers in the short term only to have a spike in the medium term.

The long term average is exceptionally important, it describes how society does for all causes of deaths and that very much matters.

You just seemed to be annoyed that I've highlighted that if total deaths remain within the band of the long term average then Sweden will have protected it's people and balanced it's resources correctly. There can only be elevated deaths with a new variable, the question is how much and we will have to wait for medium term data to become available until a definitive answer can be given.

I find it interesting that you are highlighting deaths within the band of the long term average. What time frame are you talking about specifically ?

d161

Vieira82 wrote: »

Well done in proving you have not opened one single of the links. They range from news websites, to science news websites, news youtube channels and governmental sources and even national geographic... but what gives? it's all a lie of course!

I originally said:-

d161 wrote: »

I looked at 4 or 5 of these links and saw 2 patients and a lot of articles written by journalists.
Is there a single scientific paper there? If so I'd love to read it because I am genuinely interested.
But where's the data. An article from RTE is not data.

• The first referenced article is a piece on Dr. Scott Krakower who was ill with Cvid.
• The second refers to Christina Cooper and ME/Chronic Fatique.
• The third is about Hanna Lockman of Louisville, Kentucky.
• The fourth is about Lauren Nichols and best of all "Tens of thousands of people, collectively known as “long-haulers,” have similar stories".

I stopped opening them at that stage and scanned the list to see if there was anything worthwhile. You quote YouTube, rte, abcnews and ...

Leading to your reply which at least references 2 scientific papers and another news article, this time about Patrick Malia:-

Here's a few more untrustworthy sources:

An article from Neurology.org, obviously fake news, neurology is probably the science of studying cabbages I suppose: https://n.neurology.org/content/95/13/559

Another fake news website: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916

And another too: https://chicagohealthonline.com/in-covid-19-long-haul-syndrome-symptoms-continue-for-months/

The second reference compares cardiovascular magnetic resonance from 100 Covid patients against "age-matched and sex-matched control groups of healthy volunteers" And concludes:-
"These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19".
I wonder if the healthy people didn't get sick because they didn't have comorbidities????

Best of all considering your reply, the first paper says:-
"Although there are no peer reviewed papers at the moment on these patients, many news articles have been written about this phenomenon1,–,4 and there are Facebook groups with several thousand patients describing these symptoms."
This I thought was brilliant considering what you continued to say next.

phew! boy oh boy am I glad I got all my info from youtube and facebook regular joes and don't fall for the lies in all those complicated links with complicated jargon

It's funny when a sarcastic comment turns out to have some truth to it. I'd guess you also do a bit of googling and a lot of copying/pasting.

d161

greyday wrote: »

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30330-8/fulltext

Considering we are only 8 months in to it, there is only testimonies from health care professionals so far.

No, there are plenty of scientific papers on other aspects to the disease. There must be some scientific study to this.

Vieira82

99nsr125 wrote: »

Maths classes lol you have no idea of the statistical work I have done.

You're confusing dilution with proportionality and actually that is how statistics work, short, medium, long, trailing, normalised and adjusted. I'm talking about that drum that's rightly beaten excess deaths.

It's a certainty that people die from a variety of ailments, that's why we keep statistics to model the trend and see how we are doing and can do better.

The suppression of covid deaths cannot come at the expense of other curable medical conditions, you'll create what seem to be good numbers in the short term only to have a spike in the medium term.

The long term average is exceptionally important, it describes how society does for all causes of deaths and that very much matters.

You just seemed to be annoyed that I've highlighted that if total deaths remain within the band of the long term average then Sweden will have protected it's people and balanced it's resources correctly. There can only be elevated deaths with a new variable, the question is how much and we will have to wait for medium term data to become available until a definitive answer can be given.

now that you cared to actually explain what you meant then I actually agree with you on the general basis. You can't like you righly said use the deaths of one year to say it has no impact on a decade long statistic.

And yes! Of course decade statistical trends are important, but you cannot go around saying it would match the number of deaths of a previous year that it's on average or that those 5k deaths are not important. They are important.

Specially since it is a new cause of death and also, if in a particular year with a brand new cause of death IF that means it matches the year before or the decade trend, it means that they where able to improve OTHER causes of deaths but not covid.

Keep in mind 5k is still a really, really bad number for a 10k population like Sweden sandwiched between nations with very low covid numbers... look at Portugal for example, next to one of the countries in the world with more cases. over 150k reported cases and only 2700 deaths since March (a large part of those hapenning in the last month and a half...

Keep in mind Portugal came out of lockdown mid May and literally only today there's partial lockdowns around the country...

greyday

d161 wrote: »

No, there are plenty of scientific papers on other aspects to the disease. There must be some scientific study to this.

How do you expect that to happen within 8 months?
It was probably 4 months before they realised some people were not recovering as expected.
Long term would hardly constitute 8 months but I found this for you
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20215863v1?fbclid=IwAR1kxdAHyhh9HJArngRNv4h33I4ex8ZCfnB_SS0NxBeBzelhUzvnTg8Ig5g

Scoondal

Yesterday Sweden had 73 people in ICU with Covid-19 ... Ireland had 40. Sweden's population is 10.2 million, Republic of Ireland has 4.9 million people.

greyday

Scoondal wrote: »

Yesterday Sweden had 73 people in ICU with Covid-19 ... Ireland had 40. Sweden's population is 10.2 million, Republic of Ireland has 4.9 million people.

Swedens will keep climbing for a while yet, we can see light at the end of the tunnel with infection rates dropping.

Stormyteacup

greyday wrote: »

How do you expect that to happen within 8 months?
It was probably 4 months before they realised some people were not recovering as expected.
Long term would hardly constitute 8 months but I found this for you
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20215863v1?fbclid=IwAR1kxdAHyhh9HJArngRNv4h33I4ex8ZCfnB_SS0NxBeBzelhUzvnTg8Ig5g

In favour of that study, it seems to have mitigated some bias by piggybacking on a Horizon IQ study, instead of a Covid specific study.

However reading through it, this struck me;

‘It also is plausible that cognitive deficits associated with COVID-19 are no different to other respiratory illnesses’

And also;

‘One might posit that people with lower cognitive ability have higher risk of catching the virus. We consider such a relationship plausible; however, it would not explain why the observed deficits varied in scale with respiratory symptom severity.’

It’s important for this to be studied, but without comparative evidence from pre diagnosis and from several months post recovery, there is little in there indicating a chronic ‘long-Covid’ problem the general population should be worried about.

greyday

Stormyteacup wrote: »

In favour of that study, it seems to have mitigated some bias by piggybacking on a Horizon IQ study, instead of a Covid specific study.

However reading through it, this struck me;

‘It also is plausible that cognitive deficits associated with COVID-19 are no different to other respiratory illnesses’

And also;

‘One might posit that people with lower cognitive ability have higher risk of catching the virus. We consider such a relationship plausible; however, it would not explain why the observed deficits varied in scale with respiratory symptom severity.’

It’s important for this to be studied, but without comparative evidence from pre diagnosis and from several months post recovery, there is little in there indicating a chronic ‘long-Covid’ problem the general population should be worried about.

To expect a comprehensive study for long term Covid after 8 months might point to a bias from those suggesting such a study should be available.

Stormyteacup

greyday wrote: »

To expect a comprehensive study for long term Covid after 8 months might point to a bias from those suggesting such a study should be available.

I’m not sure that’s the case.

But that aside, that study was from May, it would be enlightening if there was a follow-up of responders who were diagnosed as positive for Covid.

If the evidence shows that any long-term effects from Covid that are serious also manifest in greater proportions than other respiratory illnesses’ after-effects, then there may be something to worry about.

Vieira82

d161 wrote: »

I originally said:-

• The first referenced article is a piece on Dr. Scott Krakower who was ill with Cvid.
• The second refers to Christina Cooper and ME/Chronic Fatique.
• The third is about Hanna Lockman of Louisville, Kentucky.
• The fourth is about Lauren Nichols and best of all "Tens of thousands of people, collectively known as “long-haulers,” have similar stories".

I stopped opening them at that stage and scanned the list to see if there was anything worthwhile. You quote YouTube, rte, abcnews and ...

Leading to your reply which at least references 2 scientific papers and another news article, this time about Patrick Malia:-



The second reference compares cardiovascular magnetic resonance from 100 Covid patients against "age-matched and sex-matched control groups of healthy volunteers" And concludes:-
"These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19".
I wonder if the healthy people didn't get sick because they didn't have comorbidities????

Best of all considering your reply, the first paper says:-
"Although there are no peer reviewed papers at the moment on these patients, many news articles have been written about this phenomenon1,–,4 and there are Facebook groups with several thousand patients describing these symptoms."
This I thought was brilliant considering what you continued to say next.


It's funny when a sarcastic comment turns out to have some truth to it. I'd guess you also do a bit of googling and a lot of copying/pasting.

Even the World Health Organization dedicated a whole daily press briefing to this but it's all a lie by the media of course

charlie14

Scoondal wrote: »

Yesterday Sweden had 73 people in ICU with Covid-19 ... Ireland had 40. Sweden's population is 10.2 million, Republic of Ireland has 4.9 million people.

If those ICU numbers were on a like for like based on population only, then both countries would be similar.
Unfortunately for Sweden that is the only basis on which the can be compared. Sweden are around two weeks behind Ireland in new cases and their numbers are still rising while Ireland`s are falling.

biko

Scoondal wrote: »

Yesterday Sweden had 73 people in ICU with Covid-19 ... Ireland had 40. Sweden's population is 10.2 million, Republic of Ireland has 4.9 million people.

Sweden's neighbours Norway and Denmark have together the same population as Sweden.
Together Norway and Denmark have 38 cases in ICU.

Sweden isn't doing well, Ireland is just doing as bad as them..

bb1234567

Our perspective of what is 'bad' has surely changed by now, Belgium with similar population to Sweden has 1412 in ICU
, Moldova with population 25% smaller than Ireland has 800 in ICU
Neither Ireland nor Sweden are doing badly compared to mainland Europe

ArthurDayne

bb1234567 wrote: »

Our perspective of what is 'bad' has surely changed by now, Belgium with similar population to Sweden has 1412 in ICU
, Moldova with population 25% smaller than Ireland has 800 in ICU
Neither Ireland nor Sweden are doing badly compared to mainland Europe

A point which demonstrates the problem in people being ever so quick to push the idea that there is some great irreconcilable chasm between ourselves and Sweden which makes it utterly impossible for us to find the balance they seem to be finding. Instead, people seem to look at Northern Italy or Belgium as being a more reliable premonition of our fate — despite the greatly different demographic reality in those areas.

For whatever reason, the differences between ourselves and Sweden are held up as huge and unbridgeable ...while the significant differences between ourselves and our Western European neighbours who exist in the Liverpool-Milan population belt are generally ignored.

biko

Just in case someone is wondering where these numbers are available
https://www.coronatracker.com/country/ireland/
https://www.coronatracker.com/country/sweden/
etc

biko

Sweden has limited to eight per table the number of people sitting together in cafes and restaurants, amid a sharp rise in coronavirus infections.

"We have a very serious situation," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven warned, saying the virus was "going in the wrong direction".

Sweden has reported 31 Covid deaths since Friday, taking the death toll to 5,969 - far higher than its neighbours.

Unlike them, Sweden has never imposed a nationwide lockdown.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54797112

biko

Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said Thursday he had gone into self-isolation after a person in his "vicinity" had met with someone who had been confirmed to have Covid-19.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/GaabGQ/stefan-lofven-i-coronakarantan
https://www.barrons.com/news/swedish-pm-self-isolates-after-virus-contact-01604576104

greyday

https://www.coronatracker.com/country/se

Looks to be on an upward trajectory with 90 people now in ICU and over 4000 infections yesterday.

biko

biko wrote: »

Sweden has limited to eight per table the number of people sitting together in cafes and restaurants

This begs the question, how many people do usually fit around a table in Sweden?
Is this even a restriction?

The muppetry is so severe that sometimes I can't see the difference between the Swedish government and the anti-maskers.

biko

A Swedish 50yo man has received a new pair of lungs after falling ill with Covid.
https://www.vk.se/2020-11-02/patient-med-covid-19-fick-tva-nya-lungor

greyday

Close to 12000 infections over last 3 days with 53 deaths over the same period.

thereitisgone

Strangest thing is their neighbor Finland this time basically has no restrictions either, but cases are not rising
Its been about 200 a day now for a month
Today it was reported that Finland had 17 more cases these last two weeks than the previous two weeks
And it has been kind of stable now for two months
Only restrictions so far are bar have to stop serving alcohol at ten o clock but that only started last Saturday so we will not see any results from this for a while

greyday

thereitisgone wrote: »

Strangest thing is their neighbor Finland this time basically has no restrictions either, but cases are not rising
Its been about 200 a day now for a month
Today it was reported that Finland had 17 more cases these last two weeks than the previous two weeks
And it has been kind of stable now for two months
Only restrictions so far are bar have to stop serving alcohol at ten o clock but that only started last Saturday so we will not see any results from this for a while

If the population obey the rules and proper contact tracing is in place when infections are low, it is possible to limit the number of daily infections.

Stormyteacup

Stormyteacup wrote: »

And also;

‘One might posit that people with lower cognitive ability have higher risk of catching the virus. We consider such a relationship plausible; however, it would not explain why the observed deficits varied in scale with respiratory symptom severity.’

So basically thick people get sick more and suffer worse long term with COVID?

Scoondal

biko wrote: »

Sweden's neighbours Norway and Denmark have together the same population as Sweden.
Together Norway and Denmark have 38 cases in ICU.

Sweden isn't doing well, Ireland is just doing as bad as them..

Incorrect. Ireland has more people in ICU than Sweden.
The topic is about Sweden and it's comparitive relevance to Ireland.

greyday

Scoondal wrote: »

Incorrect. Ireland has more people in ICU than Sweden.
The topic is about Sweden and it's comparitive relevance to Ireland.

Ireland has 37 people in ICU today, Sweden has 92.
Where did you get your information?

greyday

All of Swedens stats are going in the wrong direction quickly at the moment and there are 8 districts now defying Tegnell by going into a semi lockdown.
It is basically accepted that Sweden is two weeks behind the rest of Europe, infections are over 3000 a day over the last week, death rate has been steadily increasing with the worst yet to come for them.

I doubt anyone enjoys a lockdown unless you are in prison but even the most sceptical would probably accept that lockdowns do reduce infections with death rates following closely.
Would people now accept that Sweden should have a national lockdown to reduce infections or do people still believe letting it rip is the best long term option considering it seems to also be accepted that immunity last approximately 6 months?
We know 8 regions in Sweden believe they should be doing more than what the National policy dictates, we also know Tegnell has changed his position on herd immunity from 10% extra deaths being possibly accepted to chasing herd immunity being unethical, some turnaround in fairness.