Sweden avoiding lockdown

Thats me

Killing some % of pensioners only helps to economics

greyday

Thats me wrote: »

Killing some % of pensioners only helps to economics

Some would say Sweden finds that acceptable alright.

Widdensushi

They are doing far better than France, Spain, Italy, Belgium etc, I don't understand the obsession with saying they are doing badly

Thats me

greyday wrote: »

Some would say Sweden finds that acceptable alright.

Who can find this unacceptable? Look on the Irish schools thread - it seem obvious schools became essential as child minders to those who working from home and this is a reason to hide input from schools into distribution of covid.

greyday

Thats me wrote: »

Who can find this unacceptable? Look on the Irish schools thread - it seem obvious schools became essential as child minders to those who working from home and this is a reason to hide input from schools into distribution of covid.

No doubt there is a level of infection spreading in schools and I really feel for the teachers this time.
There is a level which will be allowed as there is out in the general population, the cost of all this is enormous and will have to be paid back in the future.

Widdensushi

Widdensushi wrote: »

They are doing far better than France, Spain, Italy, Belgium etc, I don't understand the obsession with saying they are doing badly

I don't understand the obsession with saying they are doing well by ignoring their neighbours that have the closest cultures, geographies and demographics.


Actually I do understand that obsession, every single argument made by the pro-Sweden people on this thread has been shown to be false and anti-intellectual because any comparison with Finland, Norway and Denmark shows that Sweden's strategy failed abysmally without the purported economic benefits.


But shure, 6 months later, keep pretending they're not 'valid comparisons' simply because a factual argument completely undermines your emotional one.

Scoondal

greyday wrote: »

Ireland has 37 people in ICU today, Sweden has 92.
Where did you get your information?

RoI has population 4.9 million. Sweden has population 10.2 million.

Widdensushi

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't understand the obsession with saying they are doing well by ignoring their neighbours that have the closest cultures, geographies and demographics.


Actually I do understand that obsession, every single argument made by the pro-Sweden people on this thread has been shown to be false and anti-intellectual because any comparison with Finland, Norway and Denmark shows that Sweden's strategy failed abysmally without the purported economic benefits.


But shure, 6 months later, keep pretending they're not 'valid comparisons' simply because a factual argument completely undermines your emotional one.

Anti-intellectual = another way to say stupid, thanks, says more about you than me

Hands Like Flippers

greyday wrote: »

All of Swedens stats are going in the wrong direction quickly at the moment and there are 8 districts now defying Tegnell by going into a semi lockdown.
It is basically accepted that Sweden is two weeks behind the rest of Europe, infections are over 3000 a day over the last week, death rate has been steadily increasing with the worst yet to come for them.

I doubt anyone enjoys a lockdown unless you are in prison but even the most sceptical would probably accept that lockdowns do reduce infections with death rates following closely.
Would people now accept that Sweden should have a national lockdown to reduce infections or do people still believe letting it rip is the best long term option considering it seems to also be accepted that immunity last approximately 6 months?
We know 8 regions in Sweden believe they should be doing more than what the National policy dictates, we also know Tegnell has changed his position on herd immunity from 10% extra deaths being possibly accepted to chasing herd immunity being unethical, some turnaround in fairness.

This cheeses me off. Its either "let it rip" or "national lockdown".

As far as I know Tegnell was not advocating herd immunity from early doors and admitted not protecting the elderly sufficiently at the outset was a mistake.

I don't know how some people leave their beds in the morning. Will we be watching flu news and death charts next winter? Lockdowns against flu/motor accidents etc?

nofools

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

This cheeses me off. Its either "let it rip" or "national lockdown".

True

Where is the sensible balance for you?

Hands Like Flippers

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

This cheeses me off. Its either "let it rip" or "national lockdown".

As far as I know Tegnell was not advocating herd immunity from early doors and admitted not protecting the elderly sufficiently at the outset was a mistake.

I don't know how some people leave their beds in the morning. Will we be watching flu news and death charts next winter? Lockdowns against flu/motor accidents etc?

Tegnell has consistently denied that herd immunity is his goal. But emails released in late July after journalists requested them under open records laws show he discussed the idea. In an exchange on 14 and 15 March with the head of Finland’s public health agency, Tegnell speculated that “one point would be to keep schools open to reach herd immunity faster.” When the Finnish colleague said models suggested closing schools would decrease infection rates among the elderly by 10%, Tegnell replied: “Ten percent might be worth it?” (Tegnell says he was only speculating, and the prospect of reaching herd immunity was irrelevant to the decision to keep schools open.)

Tegnell’s thinking appears to have been shaped by his predecessor, Johan Giesecke, an epidemiologist and professor emeritus at KI with whom he exchanged many emails. Giesecke has been a vocal defender of FoHM’s strategy, which he praised in a 5 May article in The Lancet. He said the virus was “an invisible pandemic” in which 98% to 99% of infected people don’t realize they have been infected. “Our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care,” he wrote. (Giesecke stated he did not have any conflicts of interest, but his correspondence with Tegnell revealed he had been a paid consultant for FoHM since March. Giesecke told Science he sees no conflict.)

Giesecke, a member of WHO’s Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards, is still advising a similar approach to governments elsewhere. On 23 September, he told an Irish parliamentary committee that Ireland should aim for “controlled spread” in people under age 60 and “tolerable spread” among those over age 60, though in a later interview he backed off, saying Ireland had to decide policies for itself.

Giesecke and Tegnell believed herd immunity would arrive quickly. In the Lancet article, Giesecke claimed about 21% of residents of Stockholm county had already been infected by the end of April; Tegnell predicted 40% of them would have antibodies by the end of May. When initial studies showed the number was actually about 6% in late May, Tegnell said immunity was hard to measure. FoHM continued to say Swedes had built up immunity, but in September it backtracked, estimating that “just under 12%” of Stockholm residents, and 6% to 8% of the Swedish population as a whole, had antibodies to the virus by mid-June.

What Tegnell said in public vs what Tegnell said in private was very different.

Widdensushi

Widdensushi wrote: »

Anti-intellectual = another way to say stupid, thanks, says more about you than me

Anti-intellectualism has little to do with intelligence.

However, you've now shown that you lack that too. Congratulations on the accidental irony.

Stormyteacup

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What Tegnell said in public vs what Tegnell said in private was very different.

What he said in private has been widely reported as damming evidence of his advocation of herd immunity.

All that’s reported in those private emails is that discussions about herd immunity were had.

As they were here - along with discussions about zero covid.

As for the schools - not sure we can vilify him for suggesting the 10% decrease in infections in elderly might be worth it seeing as our own government is so determined to keep schools open. Either our own government are also disregarding the model from the ‘Finnish colleague’, or they have also decided ‘10% might be worth it’.

And Geisecke ‘backed off’ when he realised the dismal state of our hospital capacity. He stood by what he said but acknowledged it may not be best strategy for this country. He’s a special advisor to the WHO, which would imply he has something of note to add to the discussion of strategies for managing Covid.

Antibodies are difficult to measure. A snapshot study of 1200 Tallaght Hospital staff found 18% with antibodies. Evidence recently says that antibodies decrease over time (even a short few months) and detection isn’t reliable, but new research and evidence will over time give a better picture of the extent of immunity/protection.


Swedish strategy is more complex than ‘let it rip’. I don’t see too much wrong in focusing on ‘optimal care’ for those who need it, and community protection measures in place for those who are vulnerable.

Do you think our strategy would be exactly as we are now, as in level 5 restrictions if we had triple our hospital capacity?

joeguevara

Is the publication ‘the Local (Sweden)’ a reliable publication or is there a media bias angle that makes it one that should be disregarded?

gozunda

greyday wrote: »

No doubt there is a level of infection spreading in schools and I really feel for the teachers this time.
There is a level which will be allowed as there is out in the general population, the cost of all this is enormous and will have to be paid back in the future.

I would suggest its more than just 'in schools'. Numbers increased at least partially because of the jump in the number of actual interactions of adults needed to ensure little Fiachra and Dorchra got to school, the necessary cleaning and other staff, meetings at the school gate, bus drivers etc etc. Even if one kid did not come one down with Covid - the risk of it spreading among adults did. Looking at the covid data by County - a significant number of counties showed a noticeable spike in late August / early September.

Interestingly Swedens increasing numbers seem start climbing around the same time.

Aph2016

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't understand the obsession with saying they are doing well by ignoring their neighbours that have the closest cultures, geographies and demographics.


Actually I do understand that obsession, every single argument made by the pro-Sweden people on this thread has been shown to be false and anti-intellectual because any comparison with Finland, Norway and Denmark shows that Sweden's strategy failed abysmally without the purported economic benefits.


But shure, 6 months later, keep pretending they're not 'valid comparisons' simply because a factual argument completely undermines your emotional one.

You are incorrect.

gozunda

Scoondal wrote: »

RoI has population 4.9 million. Sweden has population 10.2 million.

Still doesn't equate with Swedens cases to date of 146,461 and deaths of 6,022

As opposed to Irelands cases to date of 64,538
And deaths of 1,940.

Or the differences in hospital resources between the two countries.

joeguevara

Aph2016 wrote: »

You are incorrect.

Instead of blandly saying’you are incorrect’ is it not more helpful to show why you think so. For examples death per million in comparison to Nordic neighbours by month and also possibly any recent changes in Swedish approach such as an actual lockdown.

Also it would be helpful if people described Swedish no lockdown by actually discussing restrictions that were in place from March. Finally guidelines that were always there and statistics about adherence to Same.


Or could be wrong and ‘you are incorrect’ cuts muster these days.

coppergrass

joeguevara wrote: »

Is the publication ‘the Local (Sweden)’ a reliable publication or is there a media bias angle that makes it one that should be disregarded?

It's a smaller publication aimed at anglophone expats who mightn't have much Swedish. I'd say it's a reliable source of info though and I'm not aware of it having any particular bias.


The bigger newspapers would be Aftonbladet (centre left) Expressen (centre right) and Dagens Nyheter (centre). These are all reliable and have considerably more resources than The Local. If you want to read more about a story here you might have some luck translating a headline into Swedish with Google Translate, searching for that headline and then pasting the Swedish results back into Google Translate. Google Translate is getting pretty good although it still gets the odd sentence spectacularly wrong!

biko

Scoondal wrote: »

RoI has population 4.9 million. Sweden has population 10.2 million.

If you show us how you arrived at your thinking we'll be more likely to agree.

biko

joeguevara wrote: »

Or could be wrong and ‘you are incorrect’ cuts muster these days.

It does not

When people make claims without evidence I can dismiss them without evidence.

Vieira82

Aph2016 wrote: »

You are incorrect.

AHAHA! The best argument in the whole thread. Briliant conclusion, undeniable factual information fundamented by an extensive multi verified library of sources.

Buoys and Gals... this thread is over. We all lost. The only winner is Aph2016

All hail our supreme lord of knowledge King Aph2016 the right!

greyday

Scoondal wrote: »

RoI has population 4.9 million. Sweden has population 10.2 million.

Per capita Ireland has less people in ICU than Sweden, You declared Ireland had more people in ICU than Sweden which is incorrect no matter what way you look at it.

37 v 92

greyday

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

This cheeses me off. Its either "let it rip" or "national lockdown".

As far as I know Tegnell was not advocating herd immunity from early doors and admitted not protecting the elderly sufficiently at the outset was a mistake.

I don't know how some people leave their beds in the morning. Will we be watching flu news and death charts next winter? Lockdowns against flu/motor accidents etc?

Comparisons between flu/motor accidents with Covid is not very good.
Some people get out of their beds because they have not contracted Covid, others go from their beds to coffins because they have caught Covid.

charlie14

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

This cheeses me off. Its either "let it rip" or "national lockdown".

As far as I know Tegnell was not advocating herd immunity from early doors and admitted not protecting the elderly sufficiently at the outset was a mistake.

I don't know how some people leave their beds in the morning. Will we be watching flu news and death charts next winter? Lockdowns against flu/motor accidents etc?

I do not know where you have been for the last few months if you do not know Tegnell was advocating herd immunity from the outset.
Wetasnotter`s post #6224 shows both Tegnell and Giesecke were doing just that in March.


A book just published, and being serialized by the Swedish national newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, now shows e-mail between Tegnell and Peet Tull former head of Sweden`s National Board of Health and Welfare`s Infection Disease Department confirming the same.
Tull wrote to Tegnell in March saying there were 3 strategies to stop the epidemic.
1. A four week total shutdown.
2. Comprehensive contact tracing of all those infected and a two week quarantine of their close contacts.
3. "Let the infection spread, slowly or fast, to reach a hypothetical herd immunity".
Tull suggested the 2nd. option. Tegnell replied saying his team had decided on the 3rd.


There have been posts suggesting that some here are only opposed to the Swedish strategy because of a dislike for Tegnell.
I have been opposed to the Swedish strategy of Tegnell and Giesecke because from the outset I viewed the pursuit of acquired herd immunity as unethical and immoral.
Now Tegnell agrees with that view, but for me that does not excuse him, or indeed his now silent partner on this strategy, Giesecke.
Tegnell is Sweden`s state epidemiologist who instigated the strategy. Not some internet randommer with zero knowledge and half baked ideas on epidemics.
His strategy was as unethical and immoral in March as it is now after his attempting it and failing, as it is now with him finally admitting it.

Hands Like Flippers

nofools wrote: »

True

Where is the sensible balance for you?

Cheers.

Having admitted the mistake of not protecting the elderly early on probably now the Swedish model.

Choice should not be removed from adults without very good reason and very considerable debate, inquiry and scrutiny.

Basically, if anyone wants to hide in their house they should be free to so do. If people want to drive 5.5km they should be free to so do.

Hands Like Flippers

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What Tegnell said in public vs what Tegnell said in private was very different.

I don't know the chap as well as you clearly do but he has been interviewed plenty in the MSM worldwide where he has defended his approach. Unlike the MSM at UK press briefings where the MSM basically want to lock down harder and therefore ask soft questions.

Hands Like Flippers

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Anti-intellectualism has little to do with intelligence.

However, you've now shown that you lack that too. Congratulations on the accidental irony.

Eh?

Really?

charlie14

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

I don't know the chap as well as you clearly do but he has been interviewed plenty in the MSM worldwide where he has defended his approach. Unlike the MSM at UK press briefings where the MSM basically want to lock down harder and therefore ask soft questions.

It really is head in the sand with all the evidence now attempting to still believe Tegnell`s strategy was not herd immunity and that he was less than truthful in those interviews.

wadacrack

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1325096495423647745