Sweden avoiding lockdown

nofools

The only way to draw proper conclusions about the Swedish approach is GPS data or similar.

The rules are just a layer, the truth is in the the number of interactions.

My guess is that Swedish behaviour 2019 vs 2020 would show a very different pattern.

greyday

nofools wrote: »

The only way to draw proper conclusions about the Swedish approach is GPS data or similar.

The rules are just a layer, the truth is in the the number of interactions.

My guess is that Swedish behaviour 2019 vs 2020 would show a very different pattern.

It does show a huge reduction in movements/interactions, fortunately vulnerable people took responsibility for their own health as their Government was not too concerned, unfortunately though I would speculate that the Governments apathy towards the virus has resulted in complacency setting in within the population resulting in soaring infection rates to be followed by higher death rates.

greyday

To put in context where Sweden is at the moment, we had just over 3000 confirmed infections this week while Sweden had over 21000, if Swedens strategy was on a par with Ireland they would have had approximately 6500 taking population sizes into account.
As of today we have 40 people in ICU, yesterday Sweden had 92.
We are seeing a steady decline of infections with deaths due to drop in tandem over the next month or so, Sweden is seeing sizeable increases of infections with deaths to follow the infection rate upwards over the next month or so.
Of course we should not be comparing Sweden with Ireland but to compare them with their nearest neighbours would truly show how diabolical a job Tegnell has done with protecting Swedens population.

He has as much as admitted his strategy at the beginning was unethical.

greyday

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54643070

Two weeks ago Johan Carlson advised the elderly and most at risk to integrate back into society, The Swedes confidence in their experts is misfounded at the very least IMO.

charlie14

greyday wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54643070

Two weeks ago Johan Carlson advised the elderly and most at risk to integrate back into society, The Swedes confidence in their experts is misfounded at the very least IMO.

They also lifted restrictions on care home visits 1st October.
With 10 regions and over 75% of the population issuing their own guidelines Sweden`s Public Health Authority are increasingly looking to be totally out of touch.

nofools

charlie14 wrote: »

I do not know where you have been for the last few months if you do not know Tegnell was advocating herd immunity from the outset.
Wetasnotter`s post #6224 shows both Tegnell and Giesecke were doing just that in March.


A book just published, and being serialized by the Swedish national newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, now shows e-mail between Tegnell and Peet Tull former head of Sweden`s National Board of Health and Welfare`s Infection Disease Department confirming the same.
Tull wrote to Tegnell in March saying there were 3 strategies to stop the epidemic.
1. A four week total shutdown.
2. Comprehensive contact tracing of all those infected and a two week quarantine of their close contacts.
3. "Let the infection spread, slowly or fast, to reach a hypothetical herd immunity".
Tull suggested the 2nd. option. Tegnell replied saying his team had decided on the 3rd.


There have been posts suggesting that some here are only opposed to the Swedish strategy because of a dislike for Tegnell.
I have been opposed to the Swedish strategy of Tegnell and Giesecke because from the outset I viewed the pursuit of acquired herd immunity as unethical and immoral.
Now Tegnell agrees with that view, but for me that does not excuse him, or indeed his now silent partner on this strategy, Giesecke.
Tegnell is Sweden`s state epidemiologist who instigated the strategy. Not some internet randommer with zero knowledge and half baked ideas on epidemics.
His strategy was as unethical and immoral in March as it is now after his attempting it and failing, as it is now with him finally admitting it.

Fair play to him for admitting error, at least

I wish some here would show the same humility in the face of a changing situation

nofools

Hands Like Flippers wrote: »

Cheers.

Having admitted the mistake of not protecting the elderly early on probably now the Swedish model.

Choice should not be removed from adults without very good reason and very considerable debate, inquiry and scrutiny.

Basically, if anyone wants to hide in their house they should be free to so do. If people want to drive 5.5km they should be free to so do.

I agree on the 5.5k and personal choice but don't think people should be free to go the house parties or be a nose out goon, at the moment.

"Do what you like so long as you don't harm others"

biko

Anders Tegnell (the person behind Sweden's strategy) agrees with anti-maskers everywhere.
He says "masks aren't the solution" like if anyone have claimed it was.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/tegnell-om-munskydd-ar-inte-raddningen/

greyday

Tegnell is about to become a world celebrity for all the wrong reasons.

gozunda

greyday wrote: »

Tegnell is about to become a world celebrity for all the wrong reasons.

There's another word for that and its on the tip of my tongue - but I can't for the world just think of it atm....

coppergrass

nofools wrote: »

The only way to draw proper conclusions about the Swedish approach is GPS data or similar.

The rules are just a layer, the truth is in the the number of interactions.

My guess is that Swedish behaviour 2019 vs 2020 would show a very different pattern.

The phone company Telia has been releasing data about this.

Sweden never had a lockdown like many other countries in Europe, but they did have recommendations about working from home if possible, minimising not essential travel etc. The authorities were worried about the spread of the virus as over the Easter weekend as many people usually travel then, but cell tower data suggested that many trips out of Stockholm were down over 90%. If you had taken a long weekend trip you wouldn't have been stopped or questioned by the police, so this showed a good deal of voluntary compliance with the recommendations.

More recently though they are reporting that there are more trips to the office as people work from home less - it'll be interesting to see what effect the newer restrictions have.

Telia have some basic findings from this data here.

Yikesoc

They have twice our population but almost four times as many deaths as us so far.

Better health system to start with too.

I know some on here think the economy is more important than keeping the death rate down but to me it’s not one or the other.

If we get to the stage of hundreds of deaths a day, overrun ICUs and younger people dying in greater numbers due to lack of beds/ treatment, who’s going to want to be out and about anyway?

charlie14

coppergrass wrote: »

The phone company Telia has been releasing data about this.

Sweden never had a lockdown like many other countries in Europe, but they did have recommendations about working from home if possible, minimising not essential travel etc. The authorities were worried about the spread of the virus as over the Easter weekend as many people usually travel then, but cell tower data suggested that many trips out of Stockholm were down over 90%. If you had taken a long weekend trip you wouldn't have been stopped or questioned by the police, so this showed a good deal of voluntary compliance with the recommendations.

More recently though they are reporting that there are more trips to the office as people work from home less - it'll be interesting to see what effect the newer restrictions have.

Telia have some basic findings from this data here.

The problem for some of the regions now with rising numbers is that during the Summer holidays people from Stockholm did travel, and brought the virus with them.


With the mixed messages from the Public Health Authority nationally as opposed to that of the regional authorities, it`s difficult to see what if any difference these regional restriction will make.
The local authorities called for avoiding public transport if possible, yet in the Skane region from a recent report it only dropped by 10%.

Thats me

wadacrack wrote: »

- Avoid physical contact with people besides those with whom they share a home
- Avoid indoor spaces in which crowds can form
- Avoid parties, weddings, funerals and similar events
- Work from home

LOL, i'm doing all of this since March

j@utis

Yikesoc wrote: »

They have twice our population but almost four times as many deaths as us so far.
<...>?

All you ever hear is about deaths. What about quality life? General well being and happiness?

Vieira82

j@utis wrote: »

All you ever hear is about deaths. What about quality life? General well being and happiness?

that was already way over Irish standard but that is because mainly for actual social policies that are inexistent in Ireland because everyone being deadly scared of having tax increases.

But on that topic, Norway, Finland and Denmark ALSO have way higher standards of living than Ireland and....

*drumroll

*second drumroll

*whole thread do a drumroll

less cases and deaths by covid since the beginning of all of this

humberklog

I was listening to Luke O'Neill on Pat Kenny this morning (I'm waiting for it to go up on the Podcast to listen back to it). They were discussing how the latest comparative graphs between Sweden and its neighbours wasn't showing Sweden's approach (deaths, infections and economic cost) in a positive light. However they went on to say that Sweden's government were rolling out new stricter measures that would broadly bring them into line with the rest of EU.

I went looking for more info on this but haven't been able to find much to back it up other than Sweden's government were recommending to their citizens a larger raft of measures and hoped that they to take a more stringent approach with their behaviour. But I couldn't see anything about enforcement and further to that I've also read that the Swedes are generally ignoring the new recommendations.

Have I missed something and Luke and Pat were getting better and more up to date info than I find online?

I see PM Stefan Lofvren has gone in to self isolation.

Vieira82

humberklog wrote: »

I was listening to Luke O'Neill on Pat Kenny this morning (I'm waiting for it to go up on the Podcast to listen back to it). They were discussing how the latest comparative graphs between Sweden and its neighbours wasn't showing Sweden's approach (deaths, infections and economic cost) in a positive light. However they went on to say that Sweden's government were rolling out new stricter measures that would broadly bring them into line with the rest of EU.

I went looking for more info on this but haven't been able to find much to back it up other than Sweden's government were recommending to their citizens a larger raft of measures and hoped that they to take a more stringent approach with their behaviour. But I couldn't see anything about enforcement and further to that I've also read that the Swedes are generally ignoring the new recommendations.

Have I missed something and Luke and Pat were getting better and more up to date info than I find online?

I see PM Stefan Lofvren has gone in to self isolation.

From what I read is basically what you mentioned. in simpler terms they played with fire and now people don't care to follow the rules...

However..

it's not something exclusive to Sweden, people are tired of this and because of the juggling about with information for months on end ppl in general in Europe are not following guidelines when suggested and that is leading to the current spike in cases europe wide.

Portugal for ex is now beating daily records of patients in intensive care, 55 added to intensive care today alone and they have now decided for some kind of lockdown.

The lack of clarity in the message by govs around Europe is obviously costing human lives as hundreds are dying a day again in numerous countries and Sweden will follow through too..

tobefrank321

Yikesoc wrote: »

They have twice our population but almost four times as many deaths as us so far.

They have over twice our population - about 10.9 million to our 4.9 million.

They have just over 3 times our deaths - 6022 vs 1947.

They have about 45% more people in the over 65 category - 20% vs 14%.

And they have 275,000 people aged over 85 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/521717/sweden-population-by-age/) whereas we have about 88,000 over 85 (https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/population-health/population-health-approach/population-projections-2011-to-2041.pdf)

So they have 3 times more in the 85+ age group. Its no wonder they have 3 times our deaths.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They have over twice our population - about 10.9 million to our 4.9 million.

They have just over 3 times our deaths - 6022 vs 1947.

They have about 45% more people in the over 65 category - 20% vs 14%.

And they have 275,000 people aged over 85 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/521717/sweden-population-by-age/) whereas we have about 88,000 over 85 (https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/population-health/population-health-approach/population-projections-2011-to-2041.pdf)

So they have 3 times more in the 85+ age group. Its no wonder they have 3 times our deaths.

Relative to population they have 40% more deaths than Ireland, and neither their deaths per population or their deaths of over 65`s come within a country mile of their three Nordic neighbours.

greyday

If the Pfizer vaccine maintains the efficacy over the full trial as shown from the interim analysis..................The Swedish gamble will most certainly not have paid off.

Scoondal

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They have over twice our population - about 10.9 million to our 4.9 million.

They have just over 3 times our deaths - 6022 vs 1947.

They have about 45% more people in the over 65 category - 20% vs 14%.

And they have 275,000 people aged over 85 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/521717/sweden-population-by-age/) whereas we have about 88,000 over 85 (https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/population-health/population-health-approach/population-projections-2011-to-2041.pdf)

So they have 3 times more in the 85+ age group. Its no wonder they have 3 times our deaths.

That is what I should have said here 3 days ago. Thanks for this information.

speckle

Scoondal wrote: »

That is what I should have said here 3 days ago. Thanks for this information.

They also seem to have large nursing homes 100+ people? Could this be a factor?

Scoondal

speckle wrote: »

They also seem to have large nursing homes 100+ people? Could this be a factor?

They have a higher proportion of their population who are elderly because they have a good public health service. Covid19 has a median death age in Ireland of 84 years old.

charlie14

Scoondal wrote: »

They have a higher proportion of their population who are elderly because they have a good public health service. Covid19 has a median death age in Ireland of 84 years old.

The percentage of those aged 65 and over of the other Scandinavian countries are quite similar. Their deaths in that category. not so much.
Not within a country mile in fact.

coppergrass

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They have over twice our population - about 10.9 million to our 4.9 million.

They have just over 3 times our deaths - 6022 vs 1947.

They have about 45% more people in the over 65 category - 20% vs 14%.

And they have 275,000 people aged over 85 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/521717/sweden-population-by-age/) whereas we have about 88,000 over 85 (https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/population-health/population-health-approach/population-projections-2011-to-2041.pdf)

So they have 3 times more in the 85+ age group. Its no wonder they have 3 times our deaths.

Interesting post, thanks! The CSO figures have been showing that over 65s account for 93% of covid deaths and over 80s account for 65% of them. The Swedish figures paint a similar picture.

TheadoreT

Sweden have the largest % of single occupancy households in the world(over 50%) and it's even higher in the big cities. Stockholm is at 60% making it the highest city in the world. They're essentially the loners of the planet. Theres real social issues among the young and not coupling up like in previous generations.

All of this contributes to them not having to go into a strick lockdown as social distancing is already naturally in place. But anyone with an anti lockdown agenda will never mention this when championing Swedens approach.

nofools

TheadoreT wrote: »

Sweden have the largest % of single occupancy households in the world(over 50%) and it's even higher in the big cities. Stockholm is at 60% making it the highest city in the world. They're essentially the loners of the planet. Theres real social issues among the young and not coupling up like in previous generations.

All of this contributes to them not having to go into a strick lockdown as social distancing is already naturally in place. But anyone with an anti lockdown agenda will never mention this when championing Swedens approach.

They also wont mention Brazil as that would involve admitting to themselves that they are talking ****.

Scoondal

nofools wrote: »

They also wont mention Brazil as that would involve admitting to themselves that they are talking ****.

Brazil. There you go, I mentioned Brazil. What will happen now ?

nofools

Scoondal wrote: »

Brazil. There you go, I mentioned Brazil. What will happen now ?

Nothing