Sweden avoiding lockdown

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

The difference is we tried and failed to protect the elderly, Sweden made a conscious decision to allow the elderly to die.

Except that's not backed up by stats.

If you look at this breakdown of Sweden ICU admissions, the Swedes admitted 49 women and 119 men to ICU in the 80-89 age category - a total of 168.

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

Ireland on the otherhand admitted a total of 8 to ICU aged 85+

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20201106%20-%20website.pdf

Sweden also admitted 755 people aged 70-79 to ICU. Ireland admitted only 127 in the 65-84 age category.

And that's before you get to hospitalisations where the Swedes are also likely far ahead of us in care for the elderly.

So who did the better job looking after the elderly?

Thats me

cnocbui wrote: »

What is the survival rate of 80+ year olds put on ventilators?

Italy were no different:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/14/italians-80-will-left-die-country-overwhelmed-coronavirus/

And that is exactly what ended up happening.

And of course, it happened in Spain: https://news.yahoo.com/as-coronavirus-ravages-spain-doctors-get-a-grim-order-on-futility-of-care-for-the-very-old-and-very-sick-202454937.html



Notice a pattern here?

This "pattern" has its own name, triage.
In conditions when doctor has not enough resources to save all patients he have to take difficult decision. This is precise reason for lockdowns.

But, have Sweden with their approach had to implement triage practice in hospitals? I never heard about this happen there. If not then their measures were effective enough.

charlie14

Thats me wrote: »

This "pattern" has its own name, triage.
In conditions when doctor has not enough resources to save all patients he have to take difficult decision. This is precise reason for lockdowns.

But, have Sweden with their approach had to implement triage practice in hospitals? I never heard about this happen there. If not then their measures were effective enough.

As far as care home where concerned a fair amount of the triage process was carried out with a doctor at the other end of a phone. Not exactly best practice imho.

charlie14

Another record in new case numbers, deaths rising, and the government`s only new measure is to ban the sale of alcohol after 10 pm from the 20th of this month.
What planet are these people on.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

As far as care home where concerned a fair amount of the triage process was carried out with a doctor at the other end of a phone. Not exactly best practice imho.

Source for this?

And source that it also didn't happen here and in other countries.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Source for this?

And source that it also didn't happen here and in other countries.

Don`t be acting the ignoramus. Unlike many who have backed the Swedish strategy to the hilt but have now disappeared, you`re better than that.
You know full well it has been documented by not just people who lost love one in Swedish care homes but also by care home staff.

I`m not a believer in the two wrong make a right reasoning.

nofools

People so emotionally attached to the Swedish folly that they are still defending the place

Would have been great it worked but it didn't, move on.

Idolise the places with successful strategies please.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Except that's not backed up by stats.

If you look at this breakdown of Sweden ICU admissions, the Swedes admitted 49 women and 119 men to ICU in the 80-89 age category - a total of 168.

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

Ireland on the otherhand admitted a total of 8 to ICU aged 85+

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20201106%20-%20website.pdf

Sweden also admitted 755 people aged 70-79 to ICU. Ireland admitted only 127 in the 65-84 age category.

And that's before you get to hospitalisations where the Swedes are also likely far ahead of us in care for the elderly.

So who did the better job looking after the elderly?

We have been through all this before. Sweden`s aged percentage is not discernibly different from it`s Scandinavian neighbour. One of which has actually a higher percentage of over 65`s than Sweden.
If all deaths in the other three were in the 65 plus age group they would still be much lower than Sweden`s for the same age group

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Don`t be acting the ignoramus. Unlike many who have backed the Swedish strategy to the hilt but have now disappeared, you`re better than that.
You know full well it has been documented by not just people who lost love one in Swedish care homes but also by care home staff.

I`m not a believer in the two wrong make a right reasoning.

So no source for it? Same old nonsense from you, lots of opinions - zero sources.

As for it being "documented" it has also been well documented in every country. Seems like the Swedish elderly at least had the benefit of morphine. In many cases that appears to have been denied in Ireland (example I posted earlier) and in other countries where nursing homes were abandoned by staff leaving covid infected residents behind.

tobefrank321

nofools wrote: »

People so emotionally attached to the Swedish folly that they are still defending the place

Would have been great it worked but it didn't, move on.

Idolise the places with successful strategies please.

Very few countries have successfully fought Covid. The ones that did were either dictatorships where the people have zero rights, islands with limited or easily controlled points of entry, or low density countries on the periphery of continents such as Norway and Finland.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So no source for it? Same old nonsense from you, lots of opinions - zero sources.

As for it being "documented" it has also been well documented in every country. Seems like the Swedish elderly at least had the benefit of morphine. In many cases that appears to have been denied in Ireland (example I posted earlier) and in other countries where nursing homes were abandoned by staff leaving covid infected residents behind.

If that is your game in defense of a strategy that has been shown to not only having failed on every level, but where the people who came up with it lied through their teeth as what their aim was then good luck to you.
I have no intention of wasting my time playing it with you.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

If that is your game in defense of a strategy that has been shown to not only having failed on every level, but where the people who came up with it lied through their teeth as what their aim was then good luck to you.
I have no intention of wasting my time playing it with you.

No intention playing it with you either. As I said hard lockdown countries like Poland, Portugal, Chechia and others will in a matter of weeks or months surpass Sweden's death rate. Some of these lockdown countries no bigger than Sweden are currently posting daily deaths in the hundreds. Closed their economy and will face the same outcome in the end.

And as I remember it, you were one of those saying Sweden would have 100,000 people die from Covid 19 if they didn't lock down.

Thats me

charlie14 wrote: »

As far as care home where concerned a fair amount of the triage process was carried out with a doctor at the other end of a phone. Not exactly best practice imho.

With no source provided it is hard to understand what you are writing about. Do you mean in Sweden doctors had no facilities or other resources available and they were telling to care home staff by phone to give morphine to these who would require hospitalisation?

Thats me

tobefrank321 wrote: »

And as I remember it, you were one of those saying Sweden would have 100,000 people die from Covid 19 if they didn't lock down.

If i 'm not mixing things this was scientific forecast. Hopefully Swedes were able to limit themselves voluntarily.

tobefrank321

Thats me wrote: »

With no source provided it is hard to understand what you are writing about. Do you mean in Sweden doctors had no facilities or other resources available and they were telling to care home staff by phone to give morphine to these who would require hospitalisation?

He's a generally source free poster. He'll make some statement without source or links, then disappear for a while, to return later with some other opinion that he pretends is fact.

Its just a list of unsourced and uneducated opinions about Sweden, most of which have been disproven by actual sources and links.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No intention playing it with you either. As I said hard lockdown countries like Poland, Portugal, Chechia and others will in a matter of weeks or months surpass Sweden's death rate. Some of these lockdown countries no bigger than Sweden are currently posting daily deaths in the hundreds. Closed their economy and will face the same outcome in the end.

And as I remember it, you were one of those saying Sweden would have 100,000 people die from Covid 19 if they didn't lock down.

I really do not get this jumping around the world looking for figures attempting to make Sweden look good, or they were right because others also got it wrong on protecting the vulnerable, when all you need to do is look at countries right next door to Sweden to see how wrong they got it.


I don`t recall having said Sweden would have 100,000 die from Covid-19 if the did not use lockdown, but the level their numbers are now, and still rising, unless they do something more than stopping the sale of alcohol after 10 pm from 20th of this month it does not look good for them

charlie14

Thats me wrote: »

If i 'm not mixing things this was scientific forecast. Hopefully Swedes were able to limit themselves voluntarily.

With there present numbers you think the voluntary limiting idea is working ?
Authorities for over 75% of the population do not appear to agree with you.
One has already publicly called for lockdown to be imposed.

Thats me

charlie14 wrote: »

With there present numbers you think the voluntary limiting idea is working ?

What is wrong with their present numbers? Earlier in this thread i wrote their numbers are looking pretty close to Irirsh.

tobefrank321

Thats me wrote: »

What is wrong with their present numbers? Earlier in this thread i wrote their numbers are looking pretty close to Irirsh.

They are close to Irish for the proportion of elderly in the population and this is a fatal disease mainly of the elderly. But yes you are right, both countries are not far off, when you account for demographics.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

He's a generally source free poster. He'll make some statement without source or links, then disappear for a while, to return later with some other opinion that he pretends is fact.

Its just a list of unsourced and uneducated opinions about Sweden, most of which have been disproven by actual sources and links.

Unlike quite a few here who were backers of the Swedish strategy who have headed for the hill when the strategy was exposed I have never "disappeared"
I have posted factually on not just Sweden`s GDP, the true level of their unemployment rate quoting sources, the sham of claims that the strategy was not about herd immunity through posting details of emails plus quotes from a former Swedish state epidemiologist etc.
I even did the calculations and posted them that on the arguement that Sweden`s over 65`s were the primary reason for deaths, that showed when compared to the other Scandinavian countries that if all their deaths were in that age group, Sweden`s deaths were still multiples of theirs combined.
But don`t let that get in the way of defending a strategy that has been shown to have failed by any metric.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Unlike quite a few here who were backers of the Swedish strategy who have headed for the hill when the strategy was exposed I have never "disappeared"
I have posted factually on not just Sweden`s GDP, the true level of their unemployment rate quoting sources, the sham of claims that the strategy was not about herd immunity through posting details of emails plus quotes from a former Swedish state epidemiologist etc.
I even did the calculations and posted them that on the arguement that Sweden`s over 65`s were the primary reason for deaths, that showed when compared to the other Scandinavian countries that if all their deaths were in that age group, Sweden`s deaths were still multiples of theirs combined.
But don`t let that get in the way of defending a strategy that has been shown to have failed by any metric.

Nope you posted that Ireland and Sweden's GDP were to decline by the same amount and so Sweden's approach didn't even given them any economic benefit - this was proved to be wrong. Sweden is projected to do at least twice as better as Ireland and will have one of the lowest drops in GDP in the developed world.
You quoted emails from March before they changed their strategy. You keep rolling these emails out every so often even though they are 8 months out of date.
Sweden are very much mid table internationally. A number of countries who went for hard lockdown will very soon pass them out.
Their approach was not a failure or a success, but very much mid table.

Only islands or remote out of the way countries have been a success with covid 19, unsurprisingly. Many Asian countries who are close to China have also been a success but that's because they are fully aware of Chinese eating and animal husbandry habits. They have well developed processes in place to deal with the next big pandemic to come out of China.

Thats me

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They are close to Irish for the proportion of elderly in the population and this is a fatal disease mainly of the elderly.

To evaluate "Sweden lockdown" effectiveness we should compare not deaths but number of cases per capita, may be maximums of new cases per capita, in all age groups. Just because it is what the lockdowns aimed for.

Deaths is another question, may be their medical system was doing something wrong.

charlie14

Thats me wrote: »

What is wrong with their present numbers? Earlier in this thread i wrote their numbers are looking pretty close to Irirsh.

They have just twice the population of Ireland and they have 30,000 new cases for the week. With numbers still rising day on day.

Do you believe that contrary to everywhere else there will not be a corresponding rise in deaths for some reason ?

biko

Thats me wrote: »

To evaluate "Sweden lockdown" effectiveness we should compare not deaths but number of cases per capita, may be maximums of new cases per capita, in all age groups. Just because it is what the lockdowns aimed for.

Deaths is another question, may be their medical system was doing something wrong.

Maybe

This sounds a little bit like what Anders Tegnell said "We shouldn't look at deaths, we should look at patients in ICU" and then they blocked sick people from getting to ICU, magically making their numbers look less bad.

Deaths are the constant most difficult to explain away.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nope you posted that Ireland and Sweden's GDP were to decline by the same amount and so Sweden's approach didn't even given them any economic benefit - this was proved to be wrong. Sweden is projected to do at least twice as better as Ireland and will have one of the lowest drops in GDP in the developed world.
You quoted emails from March before they changed their strategy. You keep rolling these emails out every so often even though they are 8 months out of date.
Sweden are very much mid table internationally. A number of countries who went for hard lockdown will very soon pass them out.
Their approach was not a failure or a success, but very much mid table.

Only islands or remote out of the way countries have been a success with covid 19, unsurprisingly. Many Asian countries who are close to China have also been a success but that's because they are fully aware of Chinese eating and animal husbandry habits. They have well developed processes in place to deal with the next big pandemic to come out of China.

Nope.I posted that according to the I.M.F. Sweden and Ireland`s GDP were forecast to be the same. Pro Swedish strategy supporters were predicting Sweden to do better.As it turned out for the period of our lockdown we out-performed Sweden by 40%. Where do you see the economic benefit for Sweden in that ?
One of their own leading banks as late as July put their true unemployment figure when furlough was taken into account at 19%. No economic benefit domestically either.


LOL. "emails from March before they changed their strategy". Those emails exposed what their strategy was and how they had lied about it. When did they announce they had "changed their strategy" ?


There is not a strand of their strategy that has been a success. Be that protecting their vulnerable, herd immunity or economic advantage.

Thats me

charlie14 wrote: »

They have just twice the population of Ireland and they have 30,000 new cases for the week. With numbers still rising day on day.

Yes, i think you right. Somehow I was looking on effectiveness of measures taken during first spike, but now they have much bigger spike in new cases and it does not look like it is going drop down any soon time.

charlie14 wrote: »

Do you believe that contrary to everywhere else there will not be a corresponding rise in deaths for some reason ?

Yes they will. Higher number of new cases means higher number of active cases and more hospitalisations. When health system saturated they will have additional deaths which could be avoided if there would be resources available. Not sure have they reached this point yet?

charlie14

Thats me wrote: »

Yes, i think you right. Somehow I was looking on effectiveness of measures taken during first spike, but now they have much bigger spike in new cases and it does not look like it is going drop down any soon time.



Yes they will. Higher number of new cases means higher number of active cases and more hospitalisations. When health system saturated they will have additional deaths which could be avoided if there would be resources available. Not sure have they reached this point yet?

If a health service is over-run the deaths will be higher, but regardless of how many ICU beds you have higher numbers mean higher deaths.

Thats me

biko wrote: »

Maybe

This sounds a little bit like what Anders Tegnell said "We shouldn't look at deaths, we should look at patients in ICU" and then they blocked sick people from getting to ICU, magically making their numbers look less bad.

ICU's output is 50% dead / 50% severly injured... It was considered critical to have enough ICUs, but current practice ICU should be avoided by any means (and it works). But for that you need to have enough capacity in hospitals. But to have enough capacity in hospitals you need to maintain number of new cases under some limit.

biko wrote: »

Deaths are the constant most difficult to explain away.

On the positive side they (like other coutries as well) seem having much lover death ratio during second wave. I'd attribute it to 11 months of investigations done by scientists and medics.

humberklog

According to Anders Vahlne, a professor of virology at Karolinska (on Pat Kenny yesterday) there is a 6 day wait on getting a test (he never said how long it takes for results to get back or what the procedure is regarding isolation is for those presenting with symptoms).


I'd think that infection numbers are more important to watch than death figures but if what Vahlne says is true then Sweden's infection numbers are going to be hard to compare with countries doing a test within 48hour of someone contacting their GP and having a pretty clear (if sometimes ignored) isolation procedure and fairly quick test result confirmation.

A 6 day wait for a test in a modern EU country is a pretty shoddy response at this stage in the game regardless of what national measures are taken to deal with the virus.

biko

From a blog about statistics
https://emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/
Green line is 2015 to 2019 average.
Purple is 2020


These numbers are weeks. 1-4 in January etc
Week 11 when it starts to rise is early March
Week 15 when it peaks is early April
etc

As you can see towards the end (week 33 is August) the number dead in 2020 is even below average, but the year isn't over..