Sweden avoiding lockdown

Thats me

charlie14 wrote: »

If a health service is over-run the deaths will be higher, but regardless of how many ICU beds you have higher numbers mean higher deaths.

These "higher deaths" will probably happen anyway - lockdown is not about completely stopping virus, it is about slowing it down.

Thats me

biko wrote: »

As you can see towards the end (week 33 is August) the number dead in 2020 is even below average, but the year isn't over..

Nothing surprising. Of course there are infections other from covid and these were also suppressed by strict measures targeting to stop pandemy, so less people got ill this year and subsequently less died. Majority of those who didn't get their health care because of delays caused by covid (planned surgery for example), will probably die next year (example: cancer patient whose treatment was delayed became non-operable and will still alive for few months).

charlie14

Thats me wrote: »

These "higher deaths" will probably happen anyway - lockdown is not about completely stopping virus, it is about slowing it down.

Not really.I would look on that as being similar to if you escape drowning your destined to be shot anyway.
With the positive promise of vaccines on the horizon and Sweden in a position to be one of the countries to mass vaccinate, if it was ever a good idea for whatever reason to allow numbers to rise resulting in subsequent deaths, then certainly now is not the time to carry on like that

charlie14

biko wrote: »

From a blog about statistics
https://emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/
Green line is 2015 to 2019 average.
Purple is 2020


These numbers are weeks. 1-4 in January etc
Week 11 when it starts to rise is early March
Week 15 when it peaks is early April
etc

As you can see towards the end (week 33 is August) the number dead in 2020 is even below average, but the year isn't over..

That is something I have been thinking about.
If you want to know the excess Covid-19 deaths over a year, should you not look on the year as starting with the first Covid-19 death rather than use the calendar year.

Thats me

charlie14 wrote: »

Not really.I would look on that as being similar to if you escape drowning your destined to be shot anyway.

I'd suppose to look on it as if you have fire started in one of rooms of your wooden house, changing to another room will delay the moment when you will get fried, of course, but will not prevent it.

charlie14 wrote: »

With the positive promise of vaccines on the horizon and Sweden in a position to be one of the countries to mass vaccinate, if it was ever a good idea for whatever reason to allow numbers to rise resulting in subsequent deaths, then certainly now is not the time to carry on like that

We still have no idea how effective vactination will be. Countries cannot destroy whole their economics relying on the vaccine. What if it will not work?

But in general i agree with you - looks like there is progress in medical protocols, now we have much lesser mortality ratio, so it was worth of it to flatten the curve. The only thing nobody could rely on this andvance.

speckle

I think that looking at deaths, ICU patients, hospitalizations and where and how many infections are originating from are all important for different reasons and how these interplay with other, but especialy time senstive illnesses and other societal/health issues downstream of any path chosen. Not black and white but getting the balance right for your country and its peoples.
Just my simple but complex opinion.

Aph2016

Some posters doing their best to smear Swedens successful strategy, we see you.

speckle

I presume you dont mean my post which is just above yours?

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

Maybe

This sounds a little bit like what Anders Tegnell said "We shouldn't look at deaths, we should look at patients in ICU" and then they blocked sick people from getting to ICU, magically making their numbers look less bad.

Deaths are the constant most difficult to explain away.

Except if you looked at one of my posts earlier you'd see Sweden admitted massively more elderly to ICU than Ireland.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Nope.I posted that according to the I.M.F. Sweden and Ireland`s GDP were forecast to be the same. Pro Swedish strategy supporters were predicting Sweden to do better.As it turned out for the period of our lockdown we out-performed Sweden by 40%. Where do you see the economic benefit for Sweden in that ?
One of their own leading banks as late as July put their true unemployment figure when furlough was taken into account at 19%. No economic benefit domestically either.


LOL. "emails from March before they changed their strategy". Those emails exposed what their strategy was and how they had lied about it. When did they announce they had "changed their strategy" ?


There is not a strand of their strategy that has been a success. Be that protecting their vulnerable, herd immunity or economic advantage.

Its irrelevant who did better economically for a short period. Its full year that matters and Sweden are projected to do do least twice as good as us.

The emails exposed that they were hoping for herd immunity as a side effect of their strategy. It wasn't their primary aim. If it was they wouldn't have brought in any restrictions.

Stormyteacup

charlie14 wrote: »

That is something I have been thinking about.
If you want to know the excess Covid-19 deaths over a year, should you not look on the year as starting with the first Covid-19 death rather than use the calendar year.

But it’s important to compare excess deaths in total in order to in some way distinguish excess deaths solely from Covid.

If you have a ‘soft’ season for flu and other respiratory illnesses just ahead of Covid emerging, then end of life is prolonged.

As distasteful as it reads, this is the crux of the matter - a certain number of people are expected to die each year.

I’d consider it essential to know how 2020 compares with other years over the full year in order to have a clearer picture of just how outside of a normal year we are, if we are.

Did Covid condense some delayed deaths that would have been expected earlier otherwise? I realise it’s not a nice way to think especially as some definitely were taken before their time - but how does Covid fare when held up to other causes of death?

coppergrass

Another four regions are under increased restrictions from today, including the one where I live. The extra restrictions are:

1) Avoid physical contact with those you don't live with. This includes contact sports and beauty care.

2) Avoid visits to shops, museums, libraries, gyms and swimming pools. Essential grocery shopping is fine.

3) Avoid meetings, concerts, sports events etc. Sports training and events are okay for children though.

Three of the regions are also asked to avoid unnecessary travel

Akesh

charlie14 wrote: »

Nope.I posted that according to the I.M.F. Sweden and Ireland`s GDP were forecast to be the same. Pro Swedish strategy supporters were predicting Sweden to do better.As it turned out for the period of our lockdown we out-performed Sweden by 40%. Where do you see the economic benefit for Sweden in that ?
One of their own leading banks as late as July put their true unemployment figure when furlough was taken into account at 19%. No economic benefit domestically either.


LOL. "emails from March before they changed their strategy". Those emails exposed what their strategy was and how they had lied about it. When did they announce they had "changed their strategy" ?


There is not a strand of their strategy that has been a success. Be that protecting their vulnerable, herd immunity or economic advantage.

GDP as a measure of the Irish economy is meaningless because we are a tax haven.

biko

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/uppsala/ny-studie-fran-akademiska-viruset-ar-luftburen
Read using Google Transle

Swedish study claim virus is airborne

j@utis

coppergrass wrote: »

Another four regions are under increased restrictions from today, including the one where I live. The extra restrictions are:

1) Avoid physical contact with those you don't live with. This includes contact sports and beauty care.

2) Avoid visits to shops, museums, libraries, gyms and swimming pools. Essential grocery shopping is fine.

3) Avoid meetings, concerts, sports events etc. Sports training and events are okay for children though.

Three of the regions are also asked to avoid unnecessary travel

By saying "avoid

j@utis

coppergrass wrote: »

Another four regions are under increased restrictions from today, including the one where I live. The extra restrictions are:

1) Avoid physical contact with those you don't live with. This includes contact sports and beauty care.

2) Avoid visits to shops, museums, libraries, gyms and swimming pools. Essential grocery shopping is fine.

3) Avoid meetings, concerts, sports events etc. Sports training and events are okay for children though.

Three of the regions are also asked to avoid unnecessary travel

By saying "avoid", do you mean that all those businesses are forced to close their doors?

99nsr125

Thats me wrote: »

OK, this explains higher mortality rate.





Who are you and where you are? :eek:

Ireland

charlie14

Akesh wrote: »

GDP as a measure of the Irish economy is meaningless because we are a tax haven.

How we calculate or GDP is as legal as anywhere else. We are not alone in giving tax breaks to large corporations. Especially when many of those corporations provide large numbers with employment.

charlie14

Thats me wrote: »

I'd suppose to look on it as if you have fire started in one of rooms of your wooden house, changing to another room will delay the moment when you will get fried, of course, but will not prevent it.



We still have no idea how effective vactination will be. Countries cannot destroy whole their economics relying on the vaccine. What if it will not work?

But in general i agree with you - looks like there is progress in medical protocols, now we have much lesser mortality ratio, so it was worth of it to flatten the curve. The only thing nobody could rely on this andvance.

But would you stand in the first room until you were fried ?
Humans as a species, like every other animal, wish to live as long as possible. I imagine the older you get the more precious every day is.


Sweden has published it programme for vaccinations. It`s side deal with AstraSeneca will result in it being one of the first in the world to do so.
The efficacy on the Pfizer vaccine is high so there is no reason to suspect the AstraZeneca vaccine will be much different.
Does it not make sense to reduce the numbers and subsequent deaths in the meantime ?

You can have a lot of opinions regarding lockdown, but one thing it has been proven to do is reduce the numbers.

is_that_so

Aph2016 wrote: »

Some posters doing their best to smear Swedens successful strategy, we see you.

Questioning a strategy is not smearing it. It's an approach, one that no other country has tried, and give the recent rapid rise in cases no country is ever likely to. It has its critics in Sweden as well.

biko

I wonder which is the biggest slap in your face.
Your father with Corona not going to ICU and instead get morphine to ease his death, or someone describing that as a successful strategy.






https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

I wonder which is the biggest slap in your face.
Your father with Corona not going to ICU and instead get morphine to ease his death, or someone describing that as a successful strategy.






https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836

You've posted a variation of this countless times on this thread. And each time its been pointed out to you that the same happened in every country. Something like 860 over 85s died in Ireland. But only 8 over 85s ended up in ICU. And 655 over 75-84s died but only 64 ended up in ICU.

What happened the rest?

Figures here

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20201106%20-%20website.pdf

The idea that Sweden treated their elderly differently to other countries doesn't hold up. And they appear to have admitted far more elderly to ICU than Ireland. Based on the very high death rate in Irish nursing homes its us who sacrificed our old to protect hospitals.

biko

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You've posted a variation of this countless times on this thread. And each time its been pointed out to you that the same happened in every country. Something like 860 over 85s died in Ireland. But only 8 over 85s ended up in ICU. And 655 over 75-84s died but only 64 ended up in ICU.

Is your point that it is ok for Sweden to provide unnecessary palliative care for elderly corona victim, because Ireland also does it?


Not only Sweden have been a failure in protecting the most vulnerable.
From May

About 90% of the 3,700 people who have died from coronavirus in Sweden were over 70, and half were living in care homes

More than half of Belgium's coronavirus victims have died in care homes. Care home workers say the sector was initially overlooked

Spain was shocked at the end of March when the defence minister revealed that soldiers drafted in to disinfect residential homes had found some elderly people abandoned and dead in their beds.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/16/across-the-world-figures-reveal-horrific-covid-19-toll-of-care-home-deaths

Just because your neighbour beats their kids doesn't mean it's ok for you to do it.
Every single Scandinavian country have done pretty good, except the country where it's state epidemiologists initially said the virus wouldn't even come to Sweden at all.

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

Is your point that it is ok for Sweden to provide unnecessary palliative care for elderly corona victim, because Ireland also does it?


Not only Sweden have been a failure in protecting the most vulnerable.
From May

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/16/across-the-world-figures-reveal-horrific-covid-19-toll-of-care-home-deaths

Just because your neighbour beats their kids doesn't mean it's ok for you to do it.
Every single Scandinavian country have done pretty good, except the country where it's state epidemiologists initially said the virus wouldn't even come to Sweden at all.

So finally you admit it happened in virtually every country and Sweden was not alone.

In other words, the Swedes are not evil monsters as you have repeatedly implied who sacrifice their elderly, but rather followed the same protocols as most other developed countries when it came to care for elderly covid patients.

Sweden was not the exception. Looking at other countries, Canada also had a particular problem with nursing homes and only a small minority made it near a hospital or ICU. Same with Belgium, Italy, France, Spain and if anything there was even worse events in those countries such as entire nursing homes abandoned with patients left to fend for themselves. In Ireland nursing homes and staff were also left with no help and hospitals sent patients to homes without bothering to do a covid test first, a frankly criminal mistake that no doubt led to many deaths.

Vieira82

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think you need to familiarize yourself with what happened in nursing homes in every developed country including Italy, Spain, UK, Ireland, US, Canada and France before you make a comment on what happened in Sweden. In France, nursing homes were abandoned by staff, with residents inside them, essentially left to starve.

The elderly in nursing homes were treated terribly in every one of these countries.

The Swedes apologised. No other country had the decency to do so including our own government who back slapped themselves the whole time and were taking plaudits from the public while nursing home residents died.

you are completely speaking out of your ass here... like completely. This is completely fake. If you even cared to follow the news from the countries you mentioned you would have seen how the governments tried as best as they could to save the elderly in France, Spain, Italy and in Portugal. This has no comparisson at all with Sweden.

If you cared to actually watch the news instead of some youtube video you would have seen health authorities massively testing care homes, moving the ones in critical care into hospitals, and the ones needing care into specially designated areas.

Dude... I am GOBSMACKED by the lies in your words... really... you choose to deliberately LIE. That's it. Nothing more than that.

THere where daily reports showing the outbreaks in care homes in Portugal, SPain, France and Italy... and this was common to see them being treated, moved around and care homes being disinfected by authorities... heck! this is hapenning right now!!

Actually... it got to such a stage, for the first time an issue that is rampant that is illegal care homes came to light and a few are now closed and/or awaiting trial...

So once again you should change your name from tobefrank to tobealiar because that is simply what you are.

I could definitely share links about it but it is your choice to deliberately ignore this to fit your stupid narrative that should have no place in 21st century Europe.

So please, please do yourself a favor and STOP LYING. Thank you

Actually here's an article proving how wrong you are: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52094491

It clearly shows how private enterprises WHERE THE ONES that abandoned the elderly and when the public authorities came into play they saved the elderly...

You can't point a finger at an emerging situation that no one was expecting at the beginning of the outbreak to states systematically NOT CARING for the elderly and letting them die...

Those are two different scenarios that you want to force into one. So please, AGAIN, stop with the lies ok?! Thank you

coppergrass

j@utis wrote: »

By saying "avoid", do you mean that all those businesses are forced to close their doors?

Nope, you can see from point 6 here that the advice is aimed at individuals rather than businesses.

I rent a small office by the local supermarket and was just there to pick up a few bits & pieces. As far as I can see all 12 offices in the building are empty. However two hairdressers, a flower shop, a sports shop and Thai restaurant are all open. The library is open but the cinema and its restaurant are closed.

I'm not sure what would happen if a business started acting the eejit - I don't have enough of a grasp on the options available to the authorities or how they might use them. The council owns the buildings for the businesses mentioned above though so I'd imagine that gives them a good deal of leverage. This isn't uncommon either - local councils tend to control a lot more property than they do in Ireland.

tobefrank321

Vieira82 wrote: »

you are completely speaking out of your ass here... like completely. This is completely fake. If you even cared to follow the news from the countries you mentioned you would have seen how the governments tried as best as they could to save the elderly in France, Spain, Italy and in Portugal. This has no comparisson at all with Sweden.

If you cared to actually watch the news instead of some youtube video you would have seen health authorities massively testing care homes, moving the ones in critical care into hospitals, and the ones needing care into specially designated areas.

Dude... I am GOBSMACKED by the lies in your words... really... you choose to deliberately LIE. That's it. Nothing more than that.

THere where daily reports showing the outbreaks in care homes in Portugal, SPain, France and Italy... and this was common to see them being treated, moved around and care homes being disinfected by authorities... heck! this is hapenning right now!!

Actually... it got to such a stage, for the first time an issue that is rampant that is illegal care homes came to light and a few are now closed and/or awaiting trial...

So once again you should change your name from tobefrank to tobealiar because that is simply what you are.

I could definitely share links about it but it is your choice to deliberately ignore this to fit your stupid narrative that should have no place in 21st century Europe.

So please, please do yourself a favor and STOP LYING. Thank you

Actually here's an article proving how wrong you are: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52094491

It clearly shows how private enterprises WHERE THE ONES that abandoned the elderly and when the public authorities came into play they saved the elderly...

You can't point a finger at an emerging situation that no one was expecting at the beginning of the outbreak to states systematically NOT CARING for the elderly and letting them die...

Those are two different scenarios that you want to force into one. So please, AGAIN, stop with the lies ok?! Thank you

A post strong on insults, weak on sources.

From Ireland

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5894594/f...ovid-19-death/

On March 17, Florence’s daughter, Linda Maples, got a call from staff at the home to tell her that four residents and two staff had picked up the virus but her mum was fine.

But on April 9, her family were told she had a temperature and was refusing to eat or drink.

Former hospital cleaner Florence — who was known as the Queen of Sheba at the nursing home because she always had her make-up on — was later confirmed to have Covid.

The family wanted Florence to be sent to hospital but were told by staff that hospitals weren’t accepting patients from nursing homes as they were trying to free up beds for an expected surge of Covid cases.

UK

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/10/uk-older-people-in-care-homes-abandoned-to-die-amid-government-failures-during-covid-19-pandemic/

Most shockingly, on 17 March, four days after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, the Government ordered the discharge of 25,000 patients from hospitals into care homes, including those infected or possibly infected with COVID-19.

On 2 April, the same day that the WHO confirmed the existence of pre-symptomatic cases of COVID-19, the Government reiterated its guidance for hospital discharge that ‘Negative tests are not required prior to transfers / admissions into the care home’.

and more

Refused access to hospitals
Amnesty received multiple reports of care home residents’ right to NHS services - including access to general medical services and hospital admission - being denied during the pandemic. Care home staff and relatives told Amnesty how sending residents to hospital was discouraged or outright refused.

The son of one care home resident who passed away in Cumbria said that sending his father to hospital had not even been considered:

“From day one, the care home was categoric it was probably COVID and he would die of it and he would not be taken to hospital. He only had a cough at that stage. He was only 76 and was in great shape physically. He loved to go out and it would not have been a problem for him to go to hospital. The care home called me and said he had symptoms, a bit of a cough and that doctor had assessed him over mobile phone and he would not be taken to hospital. Then I spoke to the GP later that day and said he would not be taken to hospital but would be given morphine if in pain … He died a week later.”

Only happened in Sweden? Its you who have been exposed as a liar.

Keep the unsourced lies coming. All of them can be easily refuted with sources.

the incredible pudding

If you cared to actually watch the news instead of some youtube video you would have seen health authorities massively testing care homes, moving the ones in critical care into hospitals, and the ones needing care into specially designated areas.


Actually here's an article proving how wrong you are: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52094491

It clearly shows how private enterprises WHERE THE ONES that abandoned the elderly and when the public authorities came into play they saved the elderly...

That article clearly does not support what you're saying? Where does it state they were saved by the public authorities? How many of these private institutions (they're private in Sweden and in Ireland too btw) were then taken over by the state and given all the equipment and trained professionals to save all these poor people when they were incredibly strained in the public hospitals?
Also, as an aside, your arguments might be framed a little better if you attack people less.

biko

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So finally you admit it happened in virtually every country and Sweden was not alone.

There is nothing to "finally admit" to, we all already know many countries have handled the crisis badly.

The point is Sweden had the tools and the population to handle it much better, like Norway.
Other Scandinavian countries managed to stave off the worst, by doing the opposite of Sweden.

Instead you seem to focus on that Sweden is doing bad, but so are other countries - so it makes it ok with you.

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

There is nothing to "admit" to, we all already know many countries have handled the crisis badly.

The point is Sweden had the tools and the population ta handle it much better, like Norway.

Other Scandinavian countries managed to stave off the worst, by doing the opposite of Sweden.

Now you've changed from accepting that sweden was not the only one who gave morphine to elderly patients, to Sweden had the tools to handle it better. They did have the tools. They admitted many multiples more elderly to ICU than Ireland. Which makes Ireland look far worse than them.

Only someone completely clueless about covid 19 would not understand how nursing home residents were treated in every country.