Sweden avoiding lockdown

mcsean2163

Just reading through the comments, this board seems to be going a bit barmy. Let's discuss the facts, no need for personal attacks.

Vieira82

mcsean2163 wrote: »

If someone is dying of cancer they don't get tested for pneumonia is they're asymptomatic. A friend of mine, his 82 yo man was tested in a nursing home. She had covid19 and had no symptoms, if she died of a heart attack she would have been a covid19 death.

I doubt that happened much at all in the first wave, who knows what's happening now...

that's completely untrue and you know that.

https://www.thejournal.ie/how-are-covid-19-probable-deaths-counted-5102540-Jul2020/

"A death due to COVID-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma).

“There should be no period of complete recovery from COVID-19 between illness and death. A death due to COVID-19 may not be attributed to another disease (e.g. cancer) and should be counted independently of pre-existing conditions that are suspected of triggering a severe course of COVID-19.”

Death certificates

The document adds that Covid-19 “should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents (deceased people) where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death”.

The guidelines also note that if the person who died was suffering from other conditions, these should also be included on the death certificate.

For example, in cases where Covid-19 caused pneumonia and fatal respiratory distress, both pneumonia and respiratory distress should be included on the certificate, along with the virus, to highlight the “chain of events” that led to the person’s death."

But gotta love your assumption that your friends, if dead would be classified as covid. You simply have zero proof that would be the case and you show a complete lack of understanding on how deaths are reported (a quick google search and you could've find that info)

But it's better to spread unfounded rumors and then come here and complain about the quality of the thread because it proves you're talking without knowledge or even any remote fundamented information.

yosemitesam1

Vieira82 wrote: »

that's completely untrue and you know that.

https://www.thejournal.ie/how-are-covid-19-probable-deaths-counted-5102540-Jul2020/

"A death due to COVID-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma).

“There should be no period of complete recovery from COVID-19 between illness and death. A death due to COVID-19 may not be attributed to another disease (e.g. cancer) and should be counted independently of pre-existing conditions that are suspected of triggering a severe course of COVID-19.”

Death certificates

The document adds that Covid-19 “should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents (deceased people) where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death”.

The guidelines also note that if the person who died was suffering from other conditions, these should also be included on the death certificate.

For example, in cases where Covid-19 caused pneumonia and fatal respiratory distress, both pneumonia and respiratory distress should be included on the certificate, along with the virus, to highlight the “chain of events” that led to the person’s death."

But gotta love your assumption that your friends, if dead would be classified as covid. You simply have zero proof that would be the case and you show a complete lack of understanding on how deaths are reported (a quick google search and you could've find that info)

But it's better to spread unfounded rumors and then come here and complain about the quality of the thread because it proves you're talking without knowledge or even any remote fundamented information.

The headline figure of deaths records all of those who died with a positive (or assumed positive).
What exactly is recorded on the death cert is a different matter entirely and we are not given that statistic

Bit cynical

mcsean2163 wrote: »

If someone is dying of cancer they don't get tested for pneumonia if they're asymptomatic. A friend of mine, his 82 yo man was tested in a nursing home. She had covid19 and had no symptoms, if she died of a heart attack she would have been a covid19 death.

I doubt that happened much at all in the first wave, who knows what's happening now...

This is the problem. Even if Covid-19 was a completely harmless infection, people are still going to die of various causes and if they happen to have detectable levels of the virus they are going down as a Covid-19 death.

This is why analysis of excess deaths is important.

bb1234567

I'd like to see some kind of rough calculation of the chances of somebody dying from an unrelated illness during the time they have an active infection though. Like only a small fraction of the population die within a given year , it seems extremely unlikely there are any significant portion of people who would happen to die within the relatively small two week window when they happen to be infected and be asymptomatic in this case.

In most countries it does not seem like any more than about 20-30% of their whole populations have been infected over the last 8 months. And in an 8 month period you'd expect about 0.6% of a given population to die within this period normally . The overlap between these two groups would certainly not even nearly account for the large covid death tolls many countries have reported. It may be a decent proportion but given the above I cannot see how people dying 'with' covid which had no impact on their health or longevity make up a significant amount of the covid death toll.

MadYaker

Bit cynical wrote: »

This is the problem. Even if Covid-19 was a completely harmless infection, people are still going to die of various causes and if they happen to have detectable levels of the virus they are going down as a Covid-19 death.

This is why analysis of excess deaths is important.

It’s actually meaningless because there’s still too many variables. Our attempts to suppress COVID will suppress other respiratory illnesses like flu, how do you account for that when comparing excess deaths to previous years? There’ll definitely be less flu deaths this year but there’s no way to quantify it. That’s just one variable, I can think of a few more.

bb1234567

I'm a bit on the fence about it all, despite my last post. mostly because Sweden with one of the highest death toll in the world has no noticeable increase in excess deaths . And I get what you mean, but in reality if covid is this illness we should be modifying our entire existence around to accomofate, it shouldn't have to justified with complex reasoning, it should just be really obvious. Do you think in 1918 people were like well oh but the excess deaths would in fact be much worse but it's just because we have changed hygiene habits that lowered rates of other illness and that's why Spanish flu excess deaths aren't even higher , etc. No, it was just obvious to everyone it was a major public health issue even if they didn't know anyone personally who had died, didn't need convincing of how serious an issue it was.

If we are completely changing so much about every aspect of our lives because of this virus , it shouldn't be this difficult to convince people the virus is bad enough to justify it, it should go without question that all we are sacrificing is without a doubt saving a lot of lives. But it's still up for debate,really. Sweden has no excess deaths despite compared to previous decade, despite one of the highest death tolls in Europe, I really just can't around that fact.

Bit cynical

MadYaker wrote: »

It’s actually meaningless because there’s still too many variables. Our attempts to suppress COVID will suppress other respiratory illnesses like flu, how do you account for that when comparing excess deaths to previous years? There’ll definitely be less flu deaths this year but there’s no way to quantify it. That’s just one variable, I can think of a few more.

However Sweden stands out as a country with minimal restrictions, critics pointing out that the few do they have being next to useless. Therefore we would expect, if critics are correct, to have far more deaths for 2020 than other years.

Conversely, if countries with severe restrictions end up with significantly lower overall deaths for the year, then we can conclude that they overdid the restrictions and will pay for it later.

Bit cynical

bb1234567 wrote: »

If we are completely changing so much about every aspect of our lives because of this virus , it shouldn't be this difficult to convince people the virus is bad enough to justify it, it should go without question that all we are sacrificing is without a doubt saving a lot of lives. But it's still up for debate,really. Sweden has no excess deaths despite compared to previous decade, despite one of the highest death tolls in Europe, I really just can't around that fact.

We shall have to see where Sweden's overall deaths for the year stand. They do appear to be rising at the moment but I do think overall deaths are the key to understanding the severity of the disease. If the minimal restrictions Sweden imposed mean that they end up with the same number of deaths that they would have in most years, then they did the correct thing for Sweden. If they have a significant increase, then they did not have enough measures in place. If they have a decrease then they overdid their restrictions.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

However Sweden stands out as a country with minimal restrictions, critics pointing out that the few do they have being next to useless. Therefore we would expect, if critics are correct, to have far more deaths for 2020 than other years.

Conversely, if countries with severe restrictions end up with significantly lower overall deaths for the year, then we can conclude that they overdid the restrictions and will pay for it later.

We know that deaths do not occur the day someone is confirmed as being infected with Covid-19 the vast number of cases. For those that do succumb it can be as much as 8 weeks later.


It is now 7 weeks until calendar year ends so quite feasible that at least some of those who may pass from these latest infections (and from any possible new cases until the calendar year end) will do so in the new calendar year.
If you wish to access excess deaths due to Covid-19 for the period of a year then it makes sense, to me anyway, that year should being with the first Covid-19 death. Not from Jan 1st when there were no Covid-19 deaths until 11 weeks later.

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

However Sweden stands out as a country with minimal restrictions, critics pointing out that the few do they have being next to useless. Therefore we would expect, if critics are correct, to have far more deaths for 2020 than other years.

Conversely, if countries with severe restrictions end up with significantly lower overall deaths for the year, then we can conclude that they overdid the restrictions and will pay for it later.

The restrictions in Sweden were not minimal.
They were communicated as advise but data shows that Swedish people had far less interaction after the advise was issued.
Call it what you want, Sweden had over 30K for last week when we know it takes a couple of weeks to see suppression working, The death rate has climbed steadily the last week.Swedish people have been sold a pup.

Charles Babbage

bb1234567 wrote: »

I'd like to see some kind of rough calculation of the chances of somebody dying from an unrelated illness during the time they have an active infection though. Like only a small fraction of the population die within a given year , it seems extremely unlikely there are any significant portion of people who would happen to die within the relatively small two week window when they happen to be infected and be asymptomatic in this case.

In most countries it does not seem like any more than about 20-30% of their whole populations have been infected over the last 8 months. And in an 8 month period you'd expect about 0.6% of a given population to die within this period normally . The overlap between these two groups would certainly not even nearly account for the large covid death tolls many countries have reported. It may be a decent proportion but given the above I cannot see how people dying 'with' covid which had no impact on their health or longevity make up a significant amount of the covid death toll.

Indeed, or looking at it another way, if you pick a person at random then only about 1% of people have Covid at any time, even in countries with significant infection. So if there is no connection between people dying and COvid19 then you expect 1% of people who die to have it.

bb1234567

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Indeed, or looking at it another way, if you pick a person at random then only about 1% of people have Covid at any time, even in countries with significant infection. So if there is no connection between people dying and COvid19 then you expect 1% of people who die to have it.

Yes, and considerably more than 1% of deaths in Europe in places such as UK are covid related,despite recent studies showing that in hotspots like Liverpool only 1% of the population is infected.

However, euromomo is showing also that these large death tolls are not directly translating to proportionately high excess deaths.

The obvious answer I think is that the vast majority of covid related deaths are 'caused' or triggered by covid, but the people who died of it would have passed within the next year or so, so it doesn't have a large impact on excess deaths. It's a common phenomena such as during heatwaves when many elderly die. Usually excess deaths balance out for the year but the heat still clearly caused their deaths even though they were medically vulnerable.

So overall I think dying 'with' asymptomatic covid or covid which didn't contribute to your death at all is definitely pretty rare but also the risk to people who are not already ill and quite close to death is also very overstated

So it leaves us in a tricky grey area. Covid can and does cause enormous short term excess death increase that will frighten people, but its effect on the population replacement will likely be shortlived

Goldengirl

bb1234567 wrote: »

I'm a bit on the fence about it all, despite my last post. mostly because Sweden with one of the highest death toll in the world has no noticeable increase in excess deaths . And I get what you mean, but in reality if covid is this illness we should be modifying our entire existence around to accomofate, it shouldn't have to justified with complex reasoning, it should just be really obvious. Do you think in 1918 people were like well oh but the excess deaths would in fact be much worse but it's just because we have changed hygiene habits that lowered rates of other illness and that's why Spanish flu excess deaths aren't even higher , etc. No, it was just obvious to everyone it was a major public health issue even if they didn't know anyone personally who had died, didn't need convincing of how serious an issue it was.

If we are completely changing so much about every aspect of our lives because of this virus , it shouldn't be this difficult to convince people the virus is bad enough to justify it, it should go without question that all we are sacrificing is without a doubt saving a lot of lives. But it's still up for debate,really. Sweden has no excess deaths despite compared to previous decade, despite one of the highest death tolls in Europe, I really just can't around that fact.

To be honest it is only up for debate on these threads or on social media forums where anti restrictions and conspiracy theorists gather.
Here in Ireland while they say we haven't we have been locked down or restricted since March , except for a brief respite in the Summer so we haven't seen the virus infect a significant number of the population yet .
In spite of this our health service has taken the hit because it was weak to begin with from years of underfunding and mismanagement by successive governments and health authorities.
All very general so far ..but here it is ... I challenge any here who don't believe in how serious an illness Covid is , to come and look after just 3 or 4 people with it for a day in an acute ward or one person in ICU !
Also if that isn't good enough I could direct ye to a hospital in Paris where I have a friend in a cancer ward there , or Belgium where another colleague of mine is working .
Or if you want I have a friend in Wisconsin working in a free clinic caring for patients who are dying in large numbers because the state has a Republican governor who is a Covid denier .
I am not directing this at you personally but am disappointed to say the least to see this stupid debate still going on .

People everywhere are at home minding themselves, bar the few
Other care and treatment IS ongoing .
While numbers being seen are reduced we have seen a lot of efficient practices being adopted which probably would have benefited the health service years ago .
It is possible that deaths from car accidents , and other causes are being avoided.
Swedish people are restricting themselves despite their health advisors , who have been shown to be unbelievably reckless.

I think most sane people will accept this as true without having to " poke the open wounds " themselves .
Let's face it some people on here ad nauseum every day have little to do except question everything .
Frontline workers don't have that luxury .

Bit cynical

bb1234567 wrote: »

So overall I think dying 'with' asymptomatic covid or covid which didn't contribute to your death at all is definitely pretty rare but also the risk to people who are not already ill and quite close to death is also very overstated

So it leaves us in a tricky grey area. Covid can and does cause enormous short term excess death increase that will frighten people, but its effect on the population replacement will likely be shortlived

A good summary I think. Another measure would be the effect on life expectancy through the covid-19 period.

coppergrass

ArthurDayne wrote: »

A further observation to make is the difference in law. South Korea’s data protection laws for example, or rather the exemptions afforded under them, allow the State to harvest personal data for tracking purposes in a way which GDPR here would not.

I've been wondering about that and if it should be reviewed. There seems to have been remarkably little media coverage of the Covid traffic light feature in the Chinese apps WeChat and Alipay and the little there is seems mostly negative. Your exposure risk is estimated by an algorithm based on your movements and displayed as colour code. If it's green you can go about your day as usual, if it's yellow or red you have different levels or restriction. My understanding was that you could it reset to green from one of the latter colours by getting a test, although there seems to be some dispute about this.

For Western countries, Apple and Google have been working on voluntary exposure notification systems that have found their way into a number of Covid apps. Data is anonymised and while the privacy aspects of the technology nominally appear to stand up well, there are a raft of issues on the social and legal side of its use. Its overall design depends on voluntary participation. If it was used to, say, allow access to public transport it would basically work as an honour code. There could be considerable benefits to using the WeChat/Alipay approach - lockdowns would be at an individual level rather than applying to large chunks of society. It would require centralised aggregation of movement data etc that hasn't been anonymised though.

Sweden would have a head start in implementing this. You can sign into your bank account, the tax office, social security and the websites of many larger companies using a single app - BankID. To get the app you need to have your identity verified in person by one of the larger banks. While it hasn't been without problems, it is widely trusted and accepted here. Using it to authenticate a Covid traffic light app would be pretty straightforward. Many other European countries would have a lot of catchup to do though.

This would involve the suspension of a civil liberty and I'd have concerns about it becoming permanent, what else governments might do with the data, and bungled projects enriching consultants at the expense of taxpayers. On the other end of the scale though I'd imagine there are many people who'd regard these concerns as trivial compared to their right to make a living - it's extraordinary that governments are effectively suspending this for millions of people.

yosemitesam1

bb1234567 wrote: »

I'm a bit on the fence about it all, despite my last post. mostly because Sweden with one of the highest death toll in the world has no noticeable increase in excess deaths . And I get what you mean, but in reality if covid is this illness we should be modifying our entire existence around to accomofate, it shouldn't have to justified with complex reasoning, it should just be really obvious. Do you think in 1918 people were like well oh but the excess deaths would in fact be much worse but it's just because we have changed hygiene habits that lowered rates of other illness and that's why Spanish flu excess deaths aren't even higher , etc. No, it was just obvious to everyone it was a major public health issue even if they didn't know anyone personally who had died, didn't need convincing of how serious an issue it was.

If we are completely changing so much about every aspect of our lives because of this virus , it shouldn't be this difficult to convince people the virus is bad enough to justify it, it should go without question that all we are sacrificing is without a doubt saving a lot of lives. But it's still up for debate,really. Sweden has no excess deaths despite compared to previous decade, despite one of the highest death tolls in Europe, I really just can't around that fact.

Maybe restrictions themselves cause increases in excess deaths. Depression, stress and loneliness all must have some effect on mortality rates

Vieira82

Bit cynical wrote: »

This is the problem. Even if Covid-19 was a completely harmless infection, people are still going to die of various causes and if they happen to have detectable levels of the virus they are going down as a Covid-19 death.

This is why analysis of excess deaths is important.

When you have an article with words from the HSE fully explaining how deaths are registered and you still insist on this, then the conversation has gone completely out of any logical, factual or rational.

In very simple terms. If you have cancer. You get covid. If you then die of something related to cancer, it will count as a cancer death NOT as a covid death. This is clearly explained in the article I linked and quoted.

The fact people are still insisting on this is mind boggling and deep into the conspiracy theory field as there's zero real information that it is like you mention...

Vieira82

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Maybe restrictions themselves cause increases in excess deaths. Depression, stress and loneliness all must have some effect on mortality rates

Again, this is completely untrue and there where scientific articles linked here before showing the excess deaths of covid in many countries... this is purely denying the reality when you have real data right in your face showing you the excess deaths.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Also the fact on a decade wide range if deaths have been going down for a decade and then covid hits and level the stats it does not mean there is no excess deaths... it means healthcare was improving on a ten year range.

It's actually pretty bad if you have such improvement in a ten year range and that whole progress is destroyed by a single year.

Again, people not knowing how long term and short term stats work is also a problem spreading purely baseless information...

Vieira82

Goldengirl wrote: »

To be honest it is only up for debate on these threads or on social media forums where anti restrictions and conspiracy theorists gather.
Here in Ireland while they say we haven't we have been locked down or restricted since March , except for a brief respite in the Summer so we haven't seen the virus infect a significant number of the population yet .
In spite of this our health service has taken the hit because it was weak to begin with from years of underfunding and mismanagement by successive governments and health authorities.
All very general so far ..but here it is ... I challenge any here who don't believe in how serious an illness Covid is , to come and look after just 3 or 4 people with it for a day in an acute ward or one person in ICU !
Also if that isn't good enough I could direct ye to a hospital in Paris where I have a friend in a cancer ward there , or Belgium where another colleague of mine is working .
Or if you want I have a friend in Wisconsin working in a free clinic caring for patients who are dying in large numbers because the state has a Republican governor who is a Covid denier .
I am not directing this at you personally but am disappointed to say the least to see this stupid debate still going on .

People everywhere are at home minding themselves, bar the few
Other care and treatment IS ongoing .
While numbers being seen are reduced we have seen a lot of efficient practices being adopted which probably would have benefited the health service years ago .
It is possible that deaths from car accidents , and other causes are being avoided.
Swedish people are restricting themselves despite their health advisors , who have been shown to be unbelievably reckless.

I think most sane people will accept this as true without having to " poke the open wounds " themselves .
Let's face it some people on here ad nauseum every day have little to do except question everything .
Frontline workers don't have that luxury .

Excellently put. I had to go twice to the ER in CUH during the Summer and it was both times during the early morning. And all I can say is woah! Every single healthcare professional was non-stop. The waiting room filled completely that people where waiting in other rooms. I had them apologize to me multiple times because they had no empty beds to admit me, in the middle of August. In the end I was put in the staff break room. Got in at midnight and only left at 4PM the next day. Everyone was extremely professional and working non-stop, it was just an absurd amount of patients in the ER during a time where covid cases where in the single digits...

yosemitesam1

Vieira82 wrote: »

Again, this is completely untrue and there where scientific articles linked here before showing the excess deaths of covid in many countries... this is purely denying the reality when you have real data right in your face showing you the excess deaths.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Also the fact on a decade wide range if deaths have been going down for a decade and then covid hits and level the stats it does not mean there is no excess deaths... it means healthcare was improving on a ten year range.

It's actually pretty bad if you have such improvement in a ten year range and that whole progress is destroyed by a single year.

Again, people not knowing how long term and short term stats work is also a problem spreading purely baseless information...

Read the figures for Sweden in that link. They have one of the lowest excess deaths, which has to mean that other factors such as restrictions must also impact mortality

yosemitesam1

Vieira82 wrote: »

When you have an article with words from the HSE fully explaining how deaths are registered and you still insist on this, then the conversation has gone completely out of any logical, factual or rational.

In very simple terms. If you have cancer. You get covid. If you then die of something related to cancer, it will count as a cancer death NOT as a covid death. This is clearly explained in the article I linked and quoted.

The fact people are still insisting on this is mind boggling and deep into the conspiracy theory field as there's zero real information that it is like you mention...

Registered cause of deaths and the death figures Tony reads out at briefings are two completely different things. Tony's figures are anything that can be linked to covid by a positive or suspected positive and will be much higher than the real number of deaths caused by covid.
Covids status as a notifiable disease is the reason for this

Vieira82

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Read the figures for Sweden in that link. They have one of the lowest excess deaths, which has to mean that other factors such as restrictions must also impact mortality

this has been debated here.... over and over and over and over and over and over again...

And no matter the facts one crowd shows to prove why it is so... the other crowd simply denies it, some of them go into rampant insults or demagoguery and when finally proved wrong then we're all arrogant broken records...
Despite the fact for months on end one narrative has constantly changed and the other one, has remained the same as the factual evidence is there to back it up.

yosemitesam1

Vieira82 wrote: »

this has been debated here.... over and over and over and over and over and over again...

And no matter the facts one crowd shows to prove why it is so... the other crowd simply denies it, some of them go into rampant insults or demagoguery and when finally proved wrong then we're all arrogant broken records...
Despite the fact for months on end one narrative has constantly changed and the other one, has remained the same as the factual evidence is there to back it up.

What is the explanation for countries who suppressed covid better having higher excess deaths so?

Vieira82

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Registered cause of deaths and the death figures Tony reads out at briefings are two completely different things. Tony's figures are anything that can be linked to covid by a positive or suspected positive and will be much higher than the real number of deaths caused by covid.
Covids status as a notifiable disease is the reason for this

ok... so now it's "Tony's" innacuracy... yeah right... it's a constant revolving door of words trying to base an ideology on basically nothing...

Again... there's the HSE stating directly HOW the deaths are registered just on the previous page.

But of course.. it's easier to talk and talk and talk, feed up on baseless conspiracies and completely disregard any kind of real info that explains how this process is done...

If this wasn't publicly available I would understand but when there's literally a fact check article available and this is blatantly ignored and not one single word from it read, and the same baseless arguments are used on and on and on again..

And I know what you're all trying to do, is insist on the same narrative, scream it as loud as you can until the other side gets tired of countering the same arguments over and over and over again... when you believe in something so hard that any rationality is thrown out the door, the only solution is to scream it as loud as possible, as often as possible... if it's not true let's make it true... right?

yosemitesam1

Vieira82 wrote: »

ok... so now it's "Tony's" innacuracy... yeah right... it's a constant revolving door of words trying to base an ideology on basically nothing...

Again... there's the HSE stating directly HOW the deaths are registered just on the previous page.

But of course.. it's easier to talk and talk and talk, feed up on baseless conspiracies and completely disregard any kind of real info that explains how this process is done...

If this wasn't publicly available I would understand but when there's literally a fact check article available and this is blatantly ignored and not one single word from it read, and the same baseless arguments are used on and on and on again..

And I know what you're all trying to do, is insist on the same narrative, scream it as loud as you can until the other side gets tired of countering the same arguments over and over and over again... when you believe in something so hard that any rationality is thrown out the door, the only solution is to scream it as loud as possible, as often as possible... if it's not true let's make it true... right?

It has been admitted by the government that the deaths with or suspected of having covid will be higher than those who die because of covid.
There's no conspiracy or secret around this, it's just because of covids status as a notifiable disease that everything must be reported, but even though everything is reported not everyone of those deaths gets covid as cause of death on the death cert. This is why the figures Tony reports are not going to be the same as what is reported on death certs.
Read your own link properly and you will see that it doesn't refute what I have posted being the case

PokeHerKing

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Read the figures for Sweden in that link. They have one of the lowest excess deaths, which has to mean that other factors such as restrictions must also impact mortality

The graphs in that article show that Sweden had nearly 100% less deaths in the months Jan-March before their covid spike. So it looks to have counteracted the spike in April/May.

Couldnt tell you why that is but they're the only country with that kind of deficit for the first 3 months of the year in comparison with their rolling 5 year averages.

Stormyteacup

Vieira82 wrote: »

ok... so now it's "Tony's" innacuracy... yeah right... it's a constant revolving door of words trying to base an ideology on basically nothing...

Again... there's the HSE stating directly HOW the deaths are registered just on the previous page.

But of course.. it's easier to talk and talk and talk, feed up on baseless conspiracies and completely disregard any kind of real info that explains how this process is done...

If this wasn't publicly available I would understand but when there's literally a fact check article available and this is blatantly ignored and not one single word from it read, and the same baseless arguments are used on and on and on again..

And I know what you're all trying to do, is insist on the same narrative, scream it as loud as you can until the other side gets tired of countering the same arguments over and over and over again... when you believe in something so hard that any rationality is thrown out the door, the only solution is to scream it as loud as possible, as often as possible... if it's not true let's make it true... right?

But was it not made clear that if you test positive for Covid and then die, Covid will be on your death cert regardless of main cause of death? It’s notifiable.

NPHET announce the number of deaths registered with Covid on their death cert.

Important for statistical purposes of tracking infection rates and locations, but some of those deaths will have been hastened by Covid, some caused by Covid and some not related to Covid at all.

I think one of the few exceptions is clear trauma, like a fatal car accident, otherwise no matter the cause of death, if Covid is detectable in your system it goes on your death cert - and those are the figures announced.

I thought that was well publicised towards the end of the Summer, but maybe they’ve changed their reporting procedures since then - hadn’t read that if so.

wakka12

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Maybe restrictions themselves cause increases in excess deaths. Depression, stress and loneliness all must have some effect on mortality rates

I thought that too and in some countries such as Spain and UK there is evidence there were lockdown related deaths however in some countries such as Norway and Finland which also had lockdowns and small covid outbreaks there were no excess deaths. Similarly South Africa, Israel and India all had excess deaths way below normal during their early lockdowns and then excess deaths grew rapidly once the outbreak began

The countries with highest excess deaths had the biggest outbreaks and the longest lockdowns, it's usually the two together. which makes me think a significant number of excess deaths is related to strain on healthcare rather than the lockdown itself. But then we have countries like Brazil and Mexico with very relaxed restrictions and large covid outbreaks that apparently did not overwhelmed their healthcare services, and excess deaths hundreds of thousands above normal. But then we have Sweden, as usual bucking the trend, with normal excess deaths and high covid death toll.

So really, there is a lot of conflicting evidence, it's hard to know , it's a very mixed big worldwide. There is evidence that COVID and COVID alone has caused massive excess death in some regions, and then we have evidence that lockdown rather than covid was responsible for large excess deaths in other regions.

MadYaker

Bit cynical wrote: »

However Sweden stands out as a country with minimal restrictions, critics pointing out that the few do they have being next to useless. Therefore we would expect, if critics are correct, to have far more deaths for 2020 than other years.

Conversely, if countries with severe restrictions end up with significantly lower overall deaths for the year, then we can conclude that they overdid the restrictions and will pay for it later.

Those wouldn't be solid conclusions at all. It's impossible to get meaningful figures.