Sweden avoiding lockdown

grogi

charlie14 wrote: »

As I have already said there are hundreds of millions of both vaccines already produced

Now you need to get facts straight

Pfizer in their own communication claim that they can produce upto 50 million this year. That is far cry from hundrets of millions already produced

charlie14

grogi wrote: »

Up to date Phizer have 94 samples. From the same press release: "Upon the conclusion of those discussions, the evaluable case count reached 94 and the DMC performed its first analysis on all cases. "

They did administer the vaccine to thousands (38,955 as of November 8, 2020), but there are no results of that excersize yet.

-- facapalm

94 cases of COVID-19 among participants...

Both Pfizer`s 90% and Moderna`s 94.5% were from the first volunteer groups to receive the vaccines.


Seeing as ever other volunteer in both tests who were vaccinated received the exact same vaccine, why do you somehow appear to believe the results overall will be in any way discernibly different ?

grogi

charlie14 wrote: »

Both Pfizer`s 90% and Moderna`s 94.5% were from the first volunteer groups to receive the vaccines.


Seeing as ever other volunteer in both tests who were vaccinated received the exact same vaccine, why do you somehow appear to believe the results overall will be in any way discernibly different ?

No, I don't. I don't challange the efficency of said vaccines. I question the safety of a substance to be given to general public.

With unproven life-saving drugs you can afford to take a blind shot and hope for the best. If there are complications, the patient is not really loosing, as they were already dying. The difference is that with a vaccine is that you administer it to healthy people that later get sick as a result of it. There is much higher bar of safety to reach and it will take much longer to proove there are no common enough long-lasting consequences. There will be - there always are. But the numbers must be small enough.

People at exposed to much higher risks associated with COVID can take a calculated risk and get vaccinated early, but it is irresponsible to push it onto anyone.

Excess death graph for selected countries, 2020. Some of these had very draconian lockdowns. By any reasonable analysis, Sweden is a success story - keeping their country going with some semblance of normality. Belgium is a disaster. Source : euromomo.eu

greyday

The results from Pfizer and Moderna were interim results, both trials will run to a finish with both needing another 70 or so positive cases before the. final results are known, they will then continue with follow up studies to determine how long immunity lasts and if there are any longer term side effects than those already published.

charlie14

grogi wrote: »

Now you need to get facts straight

Pfizer in their own communication claim that they can produce upto 50 million this year. That is far cry from hundrets of millions already produced

They have also said before the end of 2021 they will have produced 1.35 Billion doses.
But then those will not be produced until Dec 2021 I suppose, and they are not producing a single dose now while awaiting a licence to distribute :rolleyes:
Moderna probably sitting around twiddling their thumbs doing the same .

grogi

Deleted User wrote: »

Excess death graph for selected countries /.../

I also think that the simplistic look at the death count is very wrong and we should rather look at the change of life expectancy.

There is a difference of an impact a 92 yo person with life expectancy of 6 months that dies because of COVID or a 37 yo with life expectancy of 47 years dies. It is PC to say that all life matter, but it is just that - PC. Not all life is equal.

JimmyVik

grogi wrote: »

Now you need to get facts straight

Pfizer in their own communication claim that they can produce upto 50 million this year. That is far cry from hundrets of millions already produced

Now thats a weak post

grogi

grogi wrote: »

I also think that the simplistic look at the death count is very wrong and we should rather look at the change of life expectancy.

There is a difference of an impact a 92 yo person with life expectancy of 6 months that dies because of COVID or a 37 yo with life expectancy of 47 years dies. It is PC to say that all life matter, but it is just that - PC. Not all life is equal.

If we assume deaths from other causes are roughly equal across countries, then we should see an excess death spike from COVID. We do, early in the year. We see some increase now, as we do every year going into winter, but nothing resembling a second wave, except Belgium, and even there it isn't anything of the scale of the first wave. They are an outlier.

In fact excess deaths are lower from other causes. I expect a spike in excess deaths from here on from people dying of undiagnosed conditions in lockdown countries like ours, where screening programmes are virtually stopped.

Simply looking at the ACTUAL numbers is something no one is doing. It's all spin and BS. Cases FFS. Why not test everyone for rhinoviruses and run horror stories about that every day about how many people died today with a rhinovirus?

Whatever Sweden did was the right strategy.

charlie14

grogi wrote: »

No, I don't. I don't challange the efficency of said vaccines. I question the safety of a substance to be given to general public.

With unproven life-saving drugs you can afford to take a blind shot and hope for the best. If there are complications, the patient is not really loosing, as they were already dying. The difference is that with a vaccine is that you administer it to healthy people that later get sick as a result of it. There is much higher bar of safety to reach and it will take much longer to proove there are no common enough long-lasting consequences. There will be - there always are. But the numbers must be small enough.

People at exposed to much higher risks associated with COVID can take a calculated risk and get vaccinated early, but it is irresponsible to push it onto anyone.

That is the same old same old arguments from anti-vaxxers now that everything thing else has hit the wall.
1. None of these vaccine will receive a licence without first being verified for safety and efficacy by the relevant authorities EMA, FDA, etc. Same as any other vaccine or medication.
2. It will not be mandatory to take any of these vaccines.

So now you are not questioning the efficacy when a short time ago it was the efficacy based on the initial numbers providing these percentages and both companies were according to you still testing volunteers.
Shirt tail showing perhaps ?

charlie14

JimmyVik wrote: »

Now thats a weak post

Anti vaccine posts thankfully are getting weaker day by day.

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

If we assume deaths from other causes are roughly equal across countries, then we should see an excess death spike from COVID. We do, early in the year. We see some increase now, as we do every year going into winter, but nothing resembling a second wave, except Belgium, and even there it isn't anything of the scale of the first wave. They are an outlier.

In fact excess deaths are lower from other causes. I expect a spike in excess deaths from here on from people dying of undiagnosed conditions in lockdown countries like ours, where screening programmes are virtually stopped.

Simply looking at the ACTUAL numbers is something no one is doing. It's all spin and BS. Cases FFS. Why not test everyone for rhinoviruses and run horror stories about that every day about how many people died today with a rhinovirus?

Spain is just as bad as Belgium, Spain has reported in excess of 60,000 deaths now, by far the highest in Europe.
What do you mean excess death from other causes? Excess death doesn't take into account cause..?
The excess deaths in Europe are concentrated almost entirely among the over 65 age group and in places with large outbreaks of COVID and also began the same time as the case growth began so I imagine the excess deaths are almost entirely down to COVID rather than anything else

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Spain is just as bad as Belgium, Spain has reported in excess of 70,000 excess deaths now, by far the highest in Europe.
What do you mean excess death from other causes? Excess death doesn't take into account cause..?
The excess deaths in Europe are concentrated almost entirely among the over 65 age group and in places with large outbreaks of COVID and also began the same time as the case growth began so I imagine the excess deaths are almost entirely down to COVID rather than anything else

It's just a theory. I would expect excess deaths from things like road traffic accidents, drug overdoses, etc to be lower because everything is shut down. So the COVID signal should be even stronger in excess deaths, which is what we saw.

As for other causes, I'm talking about from now on and into NEXT year when undiagnosed cancers, mishandled heart disease, diabetes etc will start appearing in the excess death stats. And yes this would be much more evenly distributed in terms of age than COVID. I hope it doesn't materialise but I can't see how it won't.

And Spain is comparable to Belgium in the first wave, but not anymore now. Spain has nearly 4 times the population of Belgium. Correction : Actually Spain is a little bit behind Belgium now so it may indeed be as bad or worse. They didn't have the second spike that Belgium had.

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

It's just a theory. I would expect excess deaths from things like road traffic accidents, drug overdoses, etc to be lower because everything is shut down. So the COVID signal should be even stronger in excess deaths, which is what we saw.

As for other causes, I'm talking about from now on and into NEXT year when undiagnosed cancers, mishandled heart disease, diabetes etc will start appearing in the excess death stats. And yes this would be much more evenly distributed in terms of age than COVID. I hope it doesn't materialise but I can't see how it won't.

And Spain is comparable to Belgium in the first wave, but not anymore now. Spain has nearly 4 times the population of Belgium. Correction : Actually Spain is a little bit behind Belgium now so it may indeed be as bad or worse. They didn't have the second spike that Belgium had.

See highlighted
Do you somehow believe that the rising numbers of new cases third week of November will somehow not carry over into deaths from Covid-19 next year

grogi

charlie14 wrote: »

That is the same old same old arguments from anti-vaxxers now that everything thing else has hit the wall.

You couldn't be more wrong about me I simply try to be realistic of what is feasible, where the research is and look at the progress hype with critical eye. I've seen far too many optimistic released over the years not to by cynical.

charlie14 wrote: »

1. None of these vaccine will receive a licence without first being verified for safety and efficacy by the relevant authorities EMA, FDA, etc. Same as any other vaccine or medication.

That brings us to the initial question - how can you claim the certification is just around the corner then? It is not and nothing can be done to fast track it. It simply requires time and the only way to make it faster is to make it less strict, which would be indeed fuel for anti-vaxxers.

We will have publically available vaccine. It was said at the begining of pandemic - two years from when the research started. It all still stands. So early 2022.

grogi

JimmyVik wrote: »

Now thats a weak post

How come? I've admited to misreading the press release.

Quoted those figures are solid. Pfizer probably has 10 million at the moment, they will reach stock of ~40 million by the end of the year. That's not the claimed hundrets of milions of vaccines already produced. That is simply bull**** and tenfold, if not more, exaggeration.

Sconsey

grogi wrote: »

You couldn't be more wrong about me I simply try to be realistic of what is feasible, where the research is and look at the progress hype with critical eye. I've seen far too many optimistic released over the years not to by cynical.



That brings us to the initial question - how can you claim the certification is just around the corner then? It is not and nothing can be done to fast track it. It simply requires time and the only way to make it faster is to make it less strict, which would be indeed fuel for anti-vaxxers.

We will have publically available vaccine. It was said at the begining of pandemic - two years from when the research started. It all still stands. So early 2022.

Certification is happening in parallel with the trials, many announcemnts recently about FDA and EU equivalent changing how they work to speed up the process. It can be safely done or it would not be happening. You just don't seem to be too well informed about what is happening.

Also, back in March the estimate was 12 to 18 months for first vaccine. Not to mention that resaeach had already started on similar vaccines for MERS and/or SARS so it was possible to quickly pivot. You don't seem to know what you are talking about to be honest.

Vieira82

grogi wrote: »

Up to date Phizer have 94 samples. From the same press release: "Upon the conclusion of those discussions, the evaluable case count reached 94 and the DMC performed its first analysis on all cases. "

They did administer the vaccine to thousands (38,955 as of November 8, 2020), but there are no results of that excersize yet.

-- facapalm

94 cases of COVID-19 among participants...

Jaysus.... you really don't know how to read, even press releases... it meant that in those over 43k they have detected at least 93 people that got infected with it AFTER getting the vaccine...

And obviously because they want to be cautious (something researchers do often) they say "over 90%" instead of almost 100% immunization as that could backfire...

Please don't try to be smart, you're only making yourself look like a fool...


dude... you really need to learn how to read xD

greyday

First shipments of vaccines will be made if first half of December, Pfizer manufactured 100 million doses at risk (Enough to vaccinate 50 million), they will be given an emergency approval.The full approval process has been shortened as data has been transferred to regulators in parallel with ongoing study.

grogi

Sconsey wrote: »

Certification is happening in parallel with the trials, many announcemnts recently about FDA and EU equivalent changing how they work to speed up the process. It can be safely done or it would not be happening. You just don't seem to be too well informed about what is happening.

No, I don't have full picture and I am first to admit my shortcomings.

Also, back in March the estimate was 12 to 18 months for first vaccine. Not to mention that resaeach had already started on similar vaccines for MERS and/or SARS so it was possible to quickly pivot. You don't seem to know what you are talking about to be honest.

In march we had views that it would take 18 months only in optimistic and 'aspirational' scenario.

Vieira82 wrote: »

Jaysus.... you really don't know how to read, even press releases... it meant that in those over 43k they have detected at least 93 people that got infected with it AFTER getting the vaccine...

I have facepalmed my understanding before, I might have been more explicit about that though.

Vieira82 wrote: »

And obviously because they want to be cautious (something researchers do often) they say "over 90%" instead of almost 100% immunization as that could backfire...

Very similar results for the Moderna trial: 95 cased among those in the trial. The split was 90 in placebo group and 5 in vaccinated. That's 94% efficacy.

JimmyVik

grogi wrote: »

How come? I've admited to misreading the press release.

Quoted those figures are solid. Pfizer probably has 10 million at the moment, they will reach stock of ~40 million by the end of the year. That's not the claimed hundrets of milions of vaccines already produced. That is simply bull**** and tenfold, if not more, exaggeration.

Stop wasting peoples time will you.

biko

192,439 official cases
6,225 officially dead
3.2% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

greyday

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/pfizer-set-to-have-100-million-coronavirus-vaccine-doses-ready-by-the-end-of-the-year-39662299.html

Ten of Swords

Please discuss vaccines in the megathread created for that purpose. Lets keep this thread on topic, thanks.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062347

charlie14

grogi wrote: »

You couldn't be more wrong about me I simply try to be realistic of what is feasible, where the research is and look at the progress hype with critical eye. I've seen far too many optimistic released over the years not to by cynical.



That brings us to the initial question - how can you claim the certification is just around the corner then? It is not and nothing can be done to fast track it. It simply requires time and the only way to make it faster is to make it less strict, which would be indeed fuel for anti-vaxxers.

We will have publically available vaccine. It was said at the begining of pandemic - two years from when the research started. It all still stands. So early 2022.

If you are keeping yourself informed then you were not being particular realistic or indeed honest when questioning the efficacy values of Pfizer`s vaccine.

Examination of a vaccine, like anything involving a lot of data time-wise, is dependent on the resources allocated to it.
That is not going to be a problem here. One of the people involved I thought summed it up well when he compared it to the time it would take driving across London in peak traffic as to dong it with a clear road all the way.
All of the companies have to date given accurate time-lines as to when their Phase 3 testing would be completed. I would not see any reason to question their assessment of how long the approval process will take.
Sweden are not questioning it. They have already rolled out their vaccination plans and intend to being vaccinating early next year.

charlie14

Ten of Swords wrote: »

Please discuss vaccines in the megathread created for that purpose. Lets keep this thread on topic, thanks.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062347

Apologies. I didn`t see this until after posting.

biko

Not sure if interesting but at this point 1.8% of the Swedish population is in the official Covid stats
192439 out of 10230000 is approx 1.8%

Vieira82

biko wrote: »

Not sure if interesting but at this point 1.8% of the Swedish population is in the official Covid stats
192439 out of 10230000 is approx 1.8%

Honestly, I really hope they get it under control. Have a few good friends from Sweden and their families are over there :S

wadacrack

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1328772828003520518

greyday

Not looking good at all for the followers of Swedens strategy, 167 in ICU and 61 deaths reported since Friday with both set to rise dramatically in the next few weeks.