Sweden avoiding lockdown

Wolf359f

bb1234567 wrote: »

Wow that's quite an increase, hadn't realised it had gotten out of hand so quickly.
Sweden's total annual deaths may actually turn out quite significantly higher than the previous ten years if this level of deaths were to continue until January, in early October it was looking to be heading toward a pretty normal 90,000 or so total deaths.

They way they report the numbers can hide the cases. Mainly if you looking at most sites like worldometers, it will show a decline in the past few days. Mainly because Sweden announce cases with a delay and assign them to the previous days etc... It does give a more accurate picture of the cases, but with a few days delay though.
As for getting cases down, as much as some people criticize Sweden (government) for their approach, ultimately, the public will react and get the numbers down.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

I agree, very likely true. However, that doesn't disqualify my response.

Your post was in relation to excess deaths due to Covid-19. There were no excess deaths between the 1st. January and 16th. March. From that date until June 22nd. there were excess deaths for every week.
Those were the weeks during the first wave when the case numbers were high, so I would not see any reason for excess deaths for those weeks other than Covid-19.
Unfortunately with the huge rise in cases at present, and I really hope I am wrong, but I cannot see it being any different for the coming weeks.

charlie14

Wolf359f wrote: »

They way they report the numbers can hide the cases. Mainly if you looking at most sites like worldometers, it will show a decline in the past few days. Mainly because Sweden announce cases with a delay and assign them to the previous days etc... It does give a more accurate picture of the cases, but with a few days delay though.
As for getting cases down, as much as some people criticize Sweden (government) for their approach, ultimately, the public will react and get the numbers down.

If you look at Sweden`s own data which is updated every day they report, Covidstatistik.se there is no decline in the past few days. New confirmed cases for yesterday were 7,240 and 66 deaths.


The Swedish government abdicated their responsibilities from the outset by leaving everything to do with this pandemic in the hands of their Public Health Authority. The message people were getting is that this virus is not that much to worry about.

When numbers started rising again the message from the Public Health Authority was the same. 1st. October more control on how to deal with the situation was ceded to regional authorities. These authorities did not see it the same way as the Public Health Authority and issued their own recommendations/restrictions. Meanwhile the Public Health Authority were relaxing restriction on care home, still talking about increasing the number allowed for gatherings, and giving contradictory numbers for restaurants from those of local authorities.

Whatever or whoever the people are reacting too at this stage then with these numbers it is not working.
The government needs to get a grip on this. There is so much mixed messaging that they need to address this on a national basis rather than the present piecemeal approach.

Thats me

charlie14 wrote: »

If you look at Sweden`s own data

Just a comment in relation to Sweden deaths stats: "Why do COVID-19 deaths in Sweden always appear to decrease in the last 10 days?"

greyday

https://www.thesun.ie/news/6175964/sweden-covid-infection-cases-above-spain-uk/

Bit cynical

I think one of the problems is that people are taking figures posted by Sweden's critics at face value without taking into account the fact that Sweden only report numbers four days out of the week. Therefore on any particular they do report, figures will be higher than they would be for countries that report every day. This is particularly true for Tuesday since Sweden do not report on weekends or Mondays.

To get a better picture, take a 7-day rolling average and use per capita figures rather than absolute numbers so comparisons with other countries can be made.



From the above graph we can see that daily deaths are indeed rising but they are doing so later than elsewhere and numbers have not reached levels in these other countries.

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

Your post was in relation to excess deaths due to Covid-19. There were no excess deaths between the 1st. January and 16th. March. From that date until June 22nd. there were excess deaths for every week.
Those were the weeks during the first wave when the case numbers were high, so I would not see any reason for excess deaths for those weeks other than Covid-19.
Unfortunately with the huge rise in cases at present, and I really hope I am wrong, but I cannot see it being any different for the coming weeks.

My post stated at present, as in at the moment.


Quote: greyday
Not looking good at all for the followers of Swedens strategy, 167 in ICU and 61 deaths reported since Friday with both set to rise dramatically in the next few weeks.


Hmmm. No excess deaths in Sweden at present.


https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think one of the problems is that people are taking figures posted by Sweden's critics at face value without taking into account the fact that Sweden only report numbers four days out of the week. Therefore on any particular they do report, figures will be higher than they would be for countries that report every day. This is particularly true for Tuesday since Sweden do not report on weekends or Mondays.

To get a better picture, take a 7-day rolling average and use per capita figures rather than absolute numbers so comparisons with other countries can be made.



From the above graph we can see that daily deaths are indeed rising but they are doing so later than elsewhere and numbers have not reached levels in these other countries.

They won't be long catching up with every metric going in the wrong direction, 30K infections each of last two weeks with close to 300 deaths notified which is likely undercounted, looks like they will be best in class again soon unfortunately.

charlie14

Thats me wrote: »

Just a comment in relation to Sweden deaths stats: "Why do COVID-19 deaths in Sweden always appear to decrease in the last 10 days?"

I said so time ago I believed the reason Worldometers more or less gave up reporting Sweden`s daily deaths was because they could not give a daily accurate number as well as having to continually go back updating earlier dates.

I do not see it making that much difference tbh.They will still appear as Covid-19 deaths at some point.

Thats me

charlie14 wrote: »

I do not see it making that much difference tbh.They will still appear as Covid-19 deaths at some point.

Yes, we just need take latest numbers with a pinch of salt.

charlie14

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think one of the problems is that people are taking figures posted by Sweden's critics at face value without taking into account the fact that Sweden only report numbers four days out of the week. Therefore on any particular they do report, figures will be higher than they would be for countries that report every day. This is particularly true for Tuesday since Sweden do not report on weekends or Mondays.

To get a better picture, take a 7-day rolling average and use per capita figures rather than absolute numbers so comparisons with other countries can be made.



From the above graph we can see that daily deaths are indeed rising but they are doing so later than elsewhere and numbers have not reached levels in these other countries.

I would not see their four day reporting now makes much difference. Their weekend reporting was never up to date.

The three consecutive days they do report each week gives a clearer picture. For Wednesday this week new cases numbered 4,007, Thursday 4,559, Friday 7,210.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

My post stated at present, as in at the moment.Quote:


Hmmm. No excess deaths in Sweden at present.


https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

As has been said earlier, with how long it can take Sweden to report deaths "at present" means little.

bb1234567

mcsean2163 wrote: »

My post stated at present, as in at the moment.


Quote: greyday
Not looking good at all for the followers of Swedens strategy, 167 in ICU and 61 deaths reported since Friday with both set to rise dramatically in the next few weeks.


Hmmm. No excess deaths in Sweden at present.


https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

I'm not certain but I think the map of Europe with the blue shades indicating level of excess deaths is retrospectively changed and revised even after the week is over.
I remember thinking last week that it was weird Belgium only had 'high excess' considering the huge death tolls and when I looked again this week it says Belgium had 'very high excess' during week 44/45

Slovenia too is reporting huge covid death toll and I was really surprised to see it said low excess deaths there last week , now it says very high excess deaths. For week 46 it now says no excess deaths Slovenia this week, I bet you next week it will have been changed to very high excess deaths yet again

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

They won't be long catching up with every metric going in the wrong direction, 30K infections each of last two weeks with close to 300 deaths notified which is likely undercounted, looks like they will be best in class again soon unfortunately.

I'm not sure this will be the case. If you look at the countries that have had a really bad "second wave", the smaller countries tend to be those that missed most of the first wave (see graph earlier). It is more a case of these other countries catching up with Sweden than the other way round.

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

I'm not sure this will be the case. If you look at the countries that have had a really bad "second wave", the smaller countries tend to be those that missed most of the first wave (see graph earlier). It is more a case of these other countries catching up with Sweden than the other way round.

I bet you are wrong!

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

I bet you are wrong!

I'm afraid a couple of countries have already caught up and sadly overtaken Sweden in cumulative deaths. France caught up a couple of weeks ago and the Czech Republic a few days ago.

mcsean2163

charlie14 wrote: »

As has been said earlier, with how long it can take Sweden to report deaths "at present" means little.

The colour of our fridge freezer is off white....

greyday

Bit cynical wrote: »

I'm afraid a couple of countries have already caught up and sadly overtaken Sweden in cumulative deaths. France caught up a couple of weeks ago and the Czech Republic a few days ago.

I am afraid Sweden will go into overdrive in a few weeks and will catch up those ahead of them, Tegnell is very competitive.

biko

According to new report from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - Sweden is handling the virus worse than any other country trying to bring R below one (took most days).

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/85e4b6a1-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/85e4b6a1-en

Bit cynical

biko wrote: »

According to new report from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - Sweden is handling the virus worse than any other country trying to bring R below one (took most days).

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/85e4b6a1-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/85e4b6a1-en

I'm not sure time taken to reduce R is a helpful metric however as it does not take into account the sustainability of those measures used to reduce R in the first place. For example, Spain is better than the EU average according to the chart above with its fairly draconian measures brought in to curb the virus, but now has well above average cumulative deaths. Czech Republic would be another example: star performer in the early days but now sadly above average in accumulated deaths.

virginmediapls

Doesn't look good for the Swedes, hope they can reverse this.

Link

Glad we locked down when we did.

mcsean2163

virginmediapls wrote: »

Doesn't look good for the Swedes, hope they can reverse this.

Link

Glad we locked down when we did.

From that article:

It is believed roughly one-in-five people in Stockholm are infected

.... That's huge! 20% infected now! Infection lasts 2 weeks, if this continues at the same rate, 100% will have been infected after another two months...

Dreadful unbalanced article.

charlie14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

From that article:

It is believed roughly one-in-five people in Stockholm are infected

.... That's huge! 20% infected now! Infection lasts 2 weeks, if this continues at the same rate, 100% will have been infected after another two months...

Dreadful unbalanced article.

Was that not what Giesecke was claiming back in March? That within a month or two everybody would be infected

greyday

mcsean2163 wrote: »

From that article:

It is believed roughly one-in-five people in Stockholm are infected

.... That's huge! 20% infected now! Infection lasts 2 weeks, if this continues at the same rate, 100% will have been infected after another two months...

Dreadful unbalanced article.

Is that sarcasm or a complete misunderstanding of the article?

zerosugarbuzz

Anyone know the number of deaths year to date in Ireland compared to last year? I would have thought this should be easy to find but I can’t. Wondering if after the initial surge the excess death ratE has narrowed. I would imagine it has with the demographic of the people most vulnerable to this illness. .

cnocbui

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

Anyone know the number of deaths year to date in Ireland compared to last year? I would have thought this should be easy to find but I can’t. Wondering if after the initial surge the excess death ratE has narrowed. I would imagine it has with the demographic of the people most vulnerable to this illness. .

https://www.thejournal.ie/excess-deaths-covid-19-ireland-5252481-Nov2020/

topper75

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

Anyone know the number of deaths year to date in Ireland compared to last year? I would have thought this should be easy to find but I can’t. Wondering if after the initial surge the excess death ratE has narrowed. I would imagine it has with the demographic of the people most vulnerable to this illness. .

You'd want to look at multiple years for a meaningful comparison. 2019 was light, leaving a lot of 'dry tinder' for spring 2020, so it would a poor comparator.

My expectation that 2020 will show to be a relatively busy year but not off any chart and not unprecedented.

tobefrank321

For most countries, the excess deaths are updated within a few weeks or a month. For Ireland its about 3 months. RIP.ie is probably more up to date.

We should start to see a spike for Sweden soon and most other countries in Europe. However, those excess charts are very sensitive and even a small increase in deaths shows as a spike.

bb1234567

Ireland's excess deaths are still very low for the time of year, restrictions seems to be reducing excess deaths in countries with small COVID outbreaks, quite paradoxically with the effect on healthcare facilities for other illnesses I would say but perhaps this effect will be short term. Either way, looks like Ireland's annual excess deaths will certainly be in normal range because oft he very low excess deaths since May.

zerosugarbuzz

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/excess-deaths-covid-19-ireland-5252481-Nov2020/

Thanks for that but what I'd like to see is the total number of deaths from January to mid November. The piece from the Journal states that it gets it data from RIP.ie but i cant see a total number of deaths on that site.

The CSO has been using Rip.ie to keep track of death notices since the end of March as Covid-19 forced researchers to explore experimental ways of obtaining up-to-date mortality data.

Does anyone here know the total number of deaths this year compared to last year?