Sweden avoiding lockdown

zerosugarbuzz

topper75 wrote: »

You'd want to look at multiple years for a meaningful comparison. 2019 was light, leaving a lot of 'dry tinder' for spring 2020, so it would a poor comparator.

My expectation that 2020 will show to be a relatively busy year but not off any chart and not unprecedented.

Apparently circa 32k is normal most years, I'd liek to see if we have the 2k excess deaths from Covid or not, I'm guessing not particularly by year end.

actuallylike

With lockdown happening for most of the year,and social distancing being the norm, if there was no covid at all, would we not see a huge reduction? Less traffic/work place accidents, flu season pretty much eradicated. Is it a fair representation to look at excess deaths compared to other years?

Bit cynical

actuallylike wrote: »

With lockdown happening for most of the year,and social distancing being the norm, if there was no covid at all, would we not see a huge reduction? Less traffic/work place accidents, flu season pretty much eradicated. Is it a fair representation to look at excess deaths compared to other years?

But if, for example, Sweden in 2020 has had roughly the same amount of deaths as in other years, then on what basis would stricter measures have been justified?

actuallylike

Bit cynical wrote: »

But if, for example, Sweden in 2020 has had roughly the same amount of deaths as in other years, then on what basis would stricter measures have been justified?

Yeah, it was mainly in response to the previous posters, about the excess in Ireland. But I agree, sweden obviously had no lockdown so tougher to call. I'd say their social distancing, which they did voluntarily, has caused a reduction in other transmittable illnesses. I guess my point is, 2020, for all countries is different. I don't think excess deaths is a variable you could truly compare to other years.

Bit cynical

actuallylike wrote: »

Yeah, it was mainly in response to the previous posters, about the excess in Ireland. But I agree, sweden obviously had no lockdown so tougher to call. I'd say their social distancing, which they did voluntarily, has caused a reduction in other transmittable illnesses. I guess my point is, 2020, for all countries is different. I don't think excess deaths is a variable you could truly compare to other years.

However there's another question with regard to Ireland. If we in Ireland get significantly reduced deaths in 2020 compared to other years and this is due, as you point out, to reductions in other transmissible diseases, have we not then overdone it in Ireland?

99nsr125

Bit cynical wrote: »

However there's another question with regard to Ireland. If we in Ireland get significantly reduced deaths in 2020 compared to other years and this is due, as you point out, to reductions in other transmissible diseases, have we not then overdone it in Ireland?

Or stored up much larger problems for years and years into the future

Bit cynical

99nsr125 wrote: »

Or stored up much larger problems for years and years into the future

Well this is it. We can't logically regard reduced deaths in 2020 as success because we could achieve that any year; we don't need Covid-19 for that. We don't lockdown every year because obviously it does not make in the long run even if deaths are reduced in the short term.

Yet when a new infection appears we apparently lose the ability to weigh up the future costs.

bb1234567

actuallylike wrote: »

With lockdown happening for most of the year,and social distancing being the norm, if there was no covid at all, would we not see a huge reduction? Less traffic/work place accidents, flu season pretty much eradicated. Is it a fair representation to look at excess deaths compared to other years?

The fact that excess deaths across Europe in the under 45 age group have been through the floor for months now, lowest in at least a decade, would indicate yes, lockdown is causing a very significant reduction in excess deaths

cnocbui

Bit cynical wrote: »

However there's another question with regard to Ireland. If we in Ireland get significantly reduced deaths in 2020 compared to other years and this is due, as you point out, to reductions in other transmissible diseases, have we not then overdone it in Ireland?

We are going to get a whopping blow out in cancer deaths in years to come, so hardly a win.

greyday

cnocbui wrote: »

We are going to get a whopping blow out in cancer deaths in years to come, so hardly a win.

You can speculate about that but we wont know for 5 or 10 years by which time Moderna may have improved the MRNA technology to the stage of being able to treat some/most of the most aggressive cancers known to humans, all speculation of course

cnocbui

greyday wrote: »

You can speculate about that but we wont know for 5 or 10 years by which time Moderna may have improved the MRNA technology to the stage of being able to treat some/most of the most aggressive cancers known to humans, all speculation of course

I don't need to speculate, unfortunately: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115013811&postcount=2368

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115013875&postcount=2374

greyday

cnocbui wrote: »

I don't need to speculate, unfortunately: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115013811&postcount=2368

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115013875&postcount=2374

Very unfortunate and I would hope things have improved since then with Hospitals, there are also over 2000 deaths with Covid in that time and anecdotally we seemed to have saved a lot of under 45's since March also.

charlie14

In fairness to the regional authorities they actually get the seriousness of the situation in Sweden whereas the Public Health Authority still appear to believe their strategy was a success and it is still August.

1st. November the Public Health Authority with rising numbers increased the numbers allowed at seated venues from 50 to 300. Regional Authorities have now knocked that on the head reducing it to 8 and 20 for funerals.Their Public Health Authority in October also lifted visitor restrictions to care home, but at least Stockholm and Malmo have seen the insanity of that decision and reimposed them.

greyday

greyday wrote: »

Very unfortunate and I would hope things have improved since then with Hospitals, there are also over 2000 deaths with Covid in that time and anecdotally we seemed to have saved a lot of under 45's since March also.

By locking them up and not letting them live their lives? Is this a good thing in your opinion? Should we prevent anyone from doing anything in the future to save more lives?

We really need to take a long hard look at the kind of society we and our children want to live in.

greyday

Deleted User wrote: »

By locking them up and not letting them live their lives? Is this a good thing in your opinion? Should we prevent anyone from doing anything in the future to save more lives?

Of course we should not be having lockdowns in the future if we can at all avoid them, the experts seem to think the death rate would be beyond what is acceptable at the moment if we were to rely on personal responsibility.
We saw over the last two weekends in our cities that personal responsibility is not even on some people's radars no matter the consequences for the vulnerable in our society.
It would have been great if people adhered to the public health advise when restrictions were reduced but unfortunately in Ireland as in Sweden it looks like too many people returned to normal which caused a rise of infections and deaths.

biko

Just when you think they can't get any more stupid.

The FHM (Public Health Agency of Sweden) won't support facemasks because "equality".
These people seem to think that A) not everyone can manage to get a facemask, and if not everyone can get one then no-one should be told to wear them.

It seems to be beyond them that every single country which mandates facemasks accepts pretty much any face covering if you don't have access to professional grade.

https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/coronaviruset/hallengren-atgarder-ar-visst-en-fraga-om-jamlikhet/

greyday

Over 17K new infections over last few days and 94 deaths reported today which will be adjusted higher in next 10 days.
It does not look as if it will take them long to have 4 X the death rate of Ireland.

greyday

greyday wrote: »

Of course we should not be having lockdowns in the future if we can at all avoid them, the experts seem to think the death rate would be beyond what is acceptable at the moment if we were to rely on personal responsibility.

Those people would break the rules anyway - and they are actually quite a small % of the population. Why not crack down hard on them - instead of punishing the whole of society? That's what I can't understand. Most people are following the regulations.

greyday

Deleted User wrote: »

Those people would break the rules anyway - and they are actually quite a small % of the population. Why not crack down hard on them - instead of punishing the whole of society? That's what I can't understand. Most people are following the regulations.

I agree but imagine the protests on the streets over garda harrassement of people that dont give a Fcuk about others or the greater good.

We are a few months off returning to some semblance of normal when the vaccines are rolled out, we are also a week from easing restrictions slightly and these cretins still could not wait to socialise in groups.

JimmyVik

biko wrote: »

Just when you think they can't get any more stupid.

The FHM (Public Health Agency of Sweden) won't support facemasks because "equality".
These people seem to think that A) not everyone can manage to get a facemask, and if not everyone can get one then no-one should be told to wear them.

It seems to be beyond them that every single country which mandates facemasks accepts pretty much any face covering if you don't have access to professional grade.

https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/coronaviruset/hallengren-atgarder-ar-visst-en-fraga-om-jamlikhet/

They havent reach their cull target yet

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Over 17K new infections over last few days and 94 deaths reported today which will be adjusted higher in next 10 days.
It does not look as if it will take them long to have 4 X the death rate of Ireland.

The 94 deaths is for the last 4 days, which is about 23 deaths per day.

On the otherhand Italy posted 853 deaths, Poland 540, Romania 196, Austria 118, Hungary 117 and Greece 101 just for today. A number of countries are on course to pass Sweden's deaths per million and Czechia has blown them out of the water with theirs sadly.

This thread was somewhat relevant when Sweden was trending as one of the highest deaths per million in the world. Today its about 21st on the overall table and will likely be somewhere around 30th when the vaccine rollout is complete, which of course with the link to AZ will be relatively soon.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The 94 deaths is for the last 4 days, which is about 23 deaths per day.

On the otherhand Italy posted 853 deaths, Poland 540, Romania 196, Austria 118, Hungary 117 and Greece 101 just for today. A number of countries are on course to pass Sweden's deaths per million and Czechia has blown them out of the water with theirs sadly.

This thread was somewhat relevant when Sweden was trending as one of the highest deaths per million in the world. Today its about 21st on the overall table and will likely be somewhere around 30th when the vaccine rollout is complete, which of course with the link to AZ will be relatively soon.

The 94 deaths were notified today, they could be any time in the last 10 days because of the way Sweden reports deaths, this is universally accepted.
Sweden will be back near the top of deaths in the very near future, they will not be anywhere near 30th when population is taken into account by the time the vaccine is generally available, they are heading back to over 100 deaths per day as things stand.
They are reporting over 12 times our rate of infections and have even passed the UK, its not looking good at all for them now with their gamble that a vaccine not becoming available has proven to be way off the mark.

Bit cynical

greyday wrote: »

The 94 deaths were notified today, they could be any time in the last 10 days because of the way Sweden reports deaths

However I don't think any country reports all deaths with Covid-19 on the very same day they occurred. There is normally some delay for processing.

bb1234567

I wonder why deaths grew so much more rapidly in Czechia than Sweden. CR saw 90% of it's deaths occur in just the last 54 days. Sweden saw 90% of it's deaths occur in a 200 day period . To make it even worse CZ's deaths are also 10% higher proportionally. The intensity of deaths was much higher in CZ despite both countries seeing a relaxed approach over the last few months. I would say Czechia also saw much higher non COVID excess deaths due to the disfunction to health services caused by such a large outbreak.

Czechia is also not even close to levellling off it will certainly lose over 0.1% of it's population to COVID before the new year

greyday

bb1234567 wrote: »

I wonder why deaths grew so much more rapidly in Czechia than Sweden. CR saw 90% of it's deaths occur in just the last 54 days. Sweden saw 90% of it's deaths occur in a 200 day period . To make it even worse CZ's deaths are also 10% higher proportionally. The intensity of deaths was much higher in CZ despite both countries seeing a relaxed approach over the last few months. I would say Czechia also saw much higher non COVID excess deaths due to the disfunction to health services caused by such a large outbreak.

Czechia is also not even close to levellling off it will certainly lose over 0.1% of it's population to COVID before the new year

Do You think Sweden is levelling off?
Swedens death rate is only starting to ramp up, what's coming over the next two months will be harrowing.

hmmm

The Swedes have been a disgrace, I can't believe people are still defending their reaction. The vaccines are coming, the end of this is in sight and most countries have managed to suppress the death toll. This has done incredible damage to the reputation of Sweden and shone a very unpleasant light on the country.

doublejobbing 2

Here's a question.

The only other country that threw caution to the wind is Belarus.

At these protests against their president, is there much in the way of saying Lukashenko presided over a mass cull of the elderly and vulnerable?

Cos if it happened, like when McConkey warned us no lockdown would lead to 40,000 excess deaths here.

Did Belarus suffer a similar slaughter under their softly softly approach?

You would expect it to be one of the main gripes of the protestors if they did.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Do You think Sweden is levelling off?
Swedens death rate is only starting to ramp up, what's coming over the next two months will be harrowing.

You are prone to exageration.
Talking of harrowing, while Sweden reported 94 deaths in the last 4 days, Hungary a country with a smaller population reported 440 deaths for the same period. Goes completely under the radar.
If you also look at worldometer you will see many countries not only with daily deaths multiples of Swedens but also far higher numbers in ICU. Switzerland are reporting their ICU at full capacity.

tobefrank321

hmmm wrote: »

The Swedes have been a disgrace, I can't believe people are still defending their reaction. The vaccines are coming, the end of this is in sight and most countries have managed to suppress the death toll. This has done incredible damage to the reputation of Sweden and shone a very unpleasant light on the country.

Most countries have not managed to suppress the death toll. This is factually wrong. Daily deaths are at an all time high while at the same time Sweden's daily deaths are well below what they were in the Spring.

actuallylike

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You are prone to exageration.
Talking of harrowing, while Sweden reported 94 deaths in the last 4 days, Hungary a country with a smaller population reported 440 deaths for the same period. Goes completely under the radar.
If you also look at worldometer you will see many countries not only with daily deaths multiples of Swedens but also far higher numbers in ICU. Switzerland are reporting their ICU at full capacity.

Hungary as far as I know never had a first wave. And the smaller population? 9.7m? Not exactly that much smaller. Sweden's second wave is just starting. I fear the "restrictions" they've put in are not enough and far too late to mitigate it. But only time will tell. Keep an eye on c19.se/en from Tuesday 2pm onwards.