Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

biko wrote: »

Just when you think they can't get any more stupid.

The FHM (Public Health Agency of Sweden) won't support facemasks because "equality".
These people seem to think that A) not everyone can manage to get a facemask, and if not everyone can get one then no-one should be told to wear them.

It seems to be beyond them that every single country which mandates facemasks accepts pretty much any face covering if you don't have access to professional grade.

https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/coronaviruset/hallengren-atgarder-ar-visst-en-fraga-om-jamlikhet/

If it was just stupidity then there might be some small reason to excuse them. It`s nothing other than sheer bloody arrogance coupled with annoyance that it was their own regional authorities that took the decision making away from them and showed how wrong their strategy was.
All the Public Health Authority have left of their master plan is no face masks and they are determined to hold on to that while well aware of the situation in their country.

July: ten of Sweden`s major airports recommended they be worn.


August: Karolinska Institute recommended they be worn by all staff and students

September: Ericsson made face mask wearing mandatory for all staff and anyone visiting any of their offices.

Last week the Swedish Academy of Science recommended they be worn on public transport and indoor in shops, public buildings etc.
Staffen Normaak group chair and professor of molecular microbiology at Karolinska Institute : "There is today experimental and epidemiological evidence that face masks reduce the risk of airborne transmission and none that it might have the opposites effect"


It is almost amusing at this stage to see posters who spent their time here, before disappearing of late, lionizing Sweden`s Public Health Authority, now putting the same time and effort into bitching and moaning about Ireland`s NPHET on other threads.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You are prone to exageration.
Talking of harrowing, while Sweden reported 94 deaths in the last 4 days, Hungary a country with a smaller population reported 440 deaths for the same period. Goes completely under the radar.
If you also look at worldometer you will see many countries not only with daily deaths multiples of Swedens but also far higher numbers in ICU. Switzerland are reporting their ICU at full capacity.

You lost credibility a while back Frank, Keep an eye on Swedens Death rate over the next two months.
Your constant attempts to bolster Swedens strategy is comical at this stage, saying Countries have not managed to suppress deaths is also comical, the deaths would have been far higher if Countries had not taken the action they had, You are quite the expert Frank.

biko

6,500 officially dead

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

You lost credibility a while back Frank, Keep an eye on Swedens Death rate over the next two months.
Your constant attempts to bolster Swedens strategy is comical at this stage, saying Countries have not managed to suppress deaths is also comical, the deaths would have been far higher if Countries had not taken the action they had, You are quite the expert Frank.

You don't understand Sweden's strategy, that part is clear.

You only need to look at some of the countries experiencing substantial deaths and ICU admissions now, far worse than Sweden and their messed up "lockdown" strategies.

Czechia - hard lockdown in the Spring - Organized a national party to celebrate the end of covid in the Summer. It has now surpassed Sweden's deaths per million and is posting 4-5 times daily deaths of Sweden.

Portugal - Allowed massive attendence at formula 1 race

Russia - Allowed huge crowd at F1 race

Northern Ireland - allows limited crowds at soccer matches - subtantially more deaths and cases now than Southern Ireland

Sweden - had planned to allow limited crowds at soccer matches - paused it in October.

Lockdown followed by national party or crowds at sports events equals recipe for disaster in many countries.

Long term limited restrictions that are sustainable should have been the way to go for these countries. They didn't go for that. They shot their bolt with hard lockdowns which weren't sustainable.

And yes Swedens deaths have levelled off - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Whereas the rest of the worlds continues to grow.
Poland today posted 674 deaths
Romania 168
Hungary 106
Austria 90
Croatia 56
Slovenia 43
Slovenia has only 40% the population of Ireland and about 20% that of Sweden

These really are the failing countries currently, lockdown or no lockdown. And that's before you get to ICU admissions - Poland have over 2000 in ICU.

greyday

Nearly 5K infections and 55 deaths unfortunately notified today.

actuallylike

greyday wrote: »

Nearly 5K infections and 55 deaths unfortunately notified today.

Less than the 83 reported on the same day last week? 55 is a lot less than what was expected by some. Hopefully this trend continues. Can never tell though with the ~10 day lag in Swedish reporting.

And since tests are being rationed, I think the case number has become useless as any meaningful metric.

greyday

actuallylike wrote: »

Less than the 83 reported on the same day last week? 55 is a lot less than what was expected by some. Hopefully this trend continues. Can never tell though with the ~10 day lag in Swedish reporting.

And since tests are being rationed, I think the case number has become useless as any meaningful metric.

I think Tegnell would be ecstatic if he could keep it at 55 but as deaths lag infections by 4-6 weeks it is highly likely this number will be dwarfed before Christmas.

6 weeks ago there were less than 1000 infections a day
5 Weeks ago there was over 1000 infections a day
4 weeks ago there approximately 2000 per day
They are now at approximately 5000 per day

Deaths are going to follow that trajectory.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Nearly 5K infections and 55 deaths unfortunately notified today.

One day doesn't make a trend. You'd have to take a 5 day average at least. I'm suspicious of a jump from 20ish one day to 55 the next. My guess is its a delay in notifications from the weekend. Interesting to see what tomorrow is, if this high figure is sustained or accounted for by some other reason.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

I think Tegnell would be ecstatic if he could keep it at 55 but as deaths lag infections by 4-6 weeks it is highly likely this number will be dwarfed before Christmas.

6 weeks ago there were less than 1000 infections a day
5 Weeks ago there was over 1000 infections a day
4 weeks ago there approximately 2000 per day
They are now at approximately 5000 per day

Deaths are going to follow that trajectory.

Yeh sure he would :rolleyes:

actuallylike

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have a damning prediction of Sweden in a few weeks time, maybe 400 a day. I think this is a prediction with current restrictions though, that may change, or may be too late.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide

actuallylike

tobefrank321 wrote: »

One day doesn't make a trend. You'd have to take a 5 day average at least. I'm suspicious of a jump from 20ish one day to 55 the next. My guess is its a delay in notifications from the weekend. Interesting to see what tomorrow is, if this high figure is sustained or accounted for by some other reason.

Taking a single day in the last 10 is a mistake, but don't forget that the figure announced today can be edited in 10 days as well


https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting

tobefrank321

actuallylike wrote: »

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have a damning prediction of Sweden in a few weeks time, maybe 400 a day. I think this is a prediction with current restrictions though, that may change, or may be too late.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide

They've brought in several new restrictions and new cases appear to have stabilised at an average of 5000 a day.
Assuming a reasonable 1% cfr, that means 50 deaths a day.

400 deaths a day would equate to 40,000 cases a day. There's no sign of that happening.

seamus

actuallylike wrote: »

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have a damning prediction of Sweden in a few weeks time, maybe 400 a day. I think this is a prediction with current restrictions though, that may change, or may be too late.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide

Is this what you're looking for?:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid19-updated-projections-november-2020

For anyone else, download the PDF and it gives projections for what the ECDC thinks is the trajectory of the virus in each member state.

The dotted line is the expected value, the grey area is the confidence interval;margin of error - a wider grey area means the prediction is less certain.

Most are projected to see a reduction, some projected to see an increase. Sweden is on page 14. The projection is grim.

It must be noted though that the data they use is two weeks behind. So interventions or improvements in the interim aren't accounted for.

greyday

3rd Nov 31 deaths over 10K infections

4th Nov 28 deaths over 3K infections

5th Nov 5 deaths over 4K infections

6th Nov 20 deaths over 4.5K infections

10th Nov 35 deaths over 15K infections

11th Nov 25 deaths over 4K infections

12th Nov 40 deaths over 4K infections

13th Nov 42 deaths nearly 6K infections

18th Nov 61 deaths over 15K infections

19th Nov 96 deaths over 4K infections

20thNov 66 deaths over 7K infections

24th Nov 94 deaths over 17K infections

25th Nov 55 deaths nearly 5K infections


The very high infection rates on certain days are for 3 to 4 days previously as they cant be arsed doing Daily updates like Ireland
Average of 34 deaths a day from last two weeks and these deaths are likely from when they had between 500 and 1700 per day.......they have romped away from those figures and would be happy to get back down to them after Christmas.

greyday

Frank lost some credibility a few weeks ago, all gone now
Its only going one way, Frank will be back in a few weeks explaining why its actually a good thing and pointing out they have less deaths than America, Brazil, UK and Russia

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Frank lost some credibility a few weeks ago, all gone now
Its only going one way, Frank will be back in a few weeks explaining why its actually a good thing and pointing out they have less deaths than America, Brazil, UK and Russia

Not at all.
As I said Sweden is still doing better than hard lockdown countries - the facts are there, even if you choose to ignore them.

Currently 22nd in deaths per million if you exclude micro states and bump up Iran in the list who've been caught underreporting deaths by as much as 2/3rds.

They've been surpassed on the list by several European countries in the last week alone such as Czechia.

And if current trends continue, they will be surpassed soon by Slovenia, Hungary and Bulgaria within a week or two and Poland within a few more weeks.

Sweden's deaths are rising but the problem for hard lockdown countries is their deaths unfortunately are rising much faster.

actuallylike

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They've brought in several new restrictions and new cases appear to have stabilised at an average of 5000 a day.
Assuming a reasonable 1% cfr, that means 50 deaths a day.

I don't think that's accurate. As I said before, their cases are unreliable due to them being rationed in certain areas. Couple that with their positivity rate through the roof, deaths will certainly follow cases but it'll "probably" be more than most trends predicts. All up in the air though, we'll see mid December.

The restrictions they brought in hopefully will reduce this, but I fear its not enough and too late

charlie14

actuallylike wrote: »

Less than the 83 reported on the same day last week? 55 is a lot less than what was expected by some. Hopefully this trend continues. Can never tell though with the ~10 day lag in Swedish reporting.

And since tests are being rationed, I think the case number has become useless as any meaningful metric.

Just to put it in perspective average daily deaths in Sweden before Covid-19 was 250.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They've brought in several new restrictions and new cases appear to have stabilised at an average of 5000 a day.
Assuming a reasonable 1% cfr, that means 50 deaths a day.

400 deaths a day would equate to 40,000 cases a day. There's no sign of that happening.

During the first wave the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths was over 6%. If this wave has the ratio then 6,700 cases a day would mean 400 deaths.


I`m not sure the new restrictions are having much effect.If they were then with a population of 10 million I would expect number to have started to drop by now rather than stabilise at 5,000 a day.

Bit cynical

seamus wrote: »

Is this what you're looking for?:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid19-updated-projections-november-2020

For anyone else, download the PDF and it gives projections for what the ECDC thinks is the trajectory of the virus in each member state.

The dotted line is the expected value, the grey area is the confidence interval;margin of error - a wider grey area means the prediction is less certain.

Most are projected to see a reduction, some projected to see an increase. Sweden is on page 14. The projection is grim.

It must be noted though that the data they use is two weeks behind. So interventions or improvements in the interim aren't accounted for.

I think we need to be careful however with these projections. If we look at the earlier report from September, there's a section where they compare ECDS's projections with actual results. Here's the section on Sweden:
And we can see that their confidence interval tended to err on the side of gross overestimation of deaths (bottom left).

Loafing Oaf

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Not at all.
As I said Sweden is still doing better than hard lockdown countries -

All hard lockdown countries?

rubadub

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

All hard lockdown countries?

FYP, if you, and others, are point blank refusing to give actual definitions about what you mean then why bother posting about them...

Are you just fishing for arguments about what you believe to be "hard"? stop dragging it out and just ask what people mean. I have absolutely no doubt there will not be an agreed definition, so why are people wasting their time talking about it as thought its some scientifically defined term?!

tobefrank321

Some of the "lockdowns" in other countries are a bit of a joke.

Austria are planning to open their ski resorts for Christmas because they can't afford not to.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/25/austria-defies-italys-appeal-alps-ski-resorts-close-christmas/

This will set back the efforts of other countries as skiiers return home from there.

Vieira82

greyday wrote: »

Frank lost some credibility a few weeks ago, all gone now
Its only going one way, Frank will be back in a few weeks explaining why its actually a good thing and pointing out they have less deaths than America, Brazil, UK and Russia

Gotta give'm credit for staunchly holding his position in front of the surmount of evidence proving him wrong. He's proudly alone and alone he stands proudly... when all is said and done we'll still need to give him credit for so fervently holding the fort on his own.

tobefrank321

Vieira82 wrote: »

Gotta give'm credit for staunchly holding his position in front of the surmount of evidence proving him wrong. He's proudly alone and alone he stands proudly... when all is said and done we'll still need to give him credit for so fervently holding the fort on his own.

What surmount of evidence is this now?

You only have to take a daily look at worldometer to see a large number of other countries in a far worse state than Sweden, countries who went down the unsustainable full/hard lockdown route.

Austria is a good example. Currently in the middle of a huge second wave, average 88 deaths a day for the last week, but planning to open their ski resorts to the world for Christmas.

Hard lockdown followed immediately by opening up to the rest of the world - not good. It would have been better they had stuck with economically affordable sustainable measures.

beauf

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Some of the "lockdowns" in other countries are a bit of a joke.

Austria are planning to open their ski resorts for Christmas because they can't afford not to.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/25/austria-defies-italys-appeal-alps-ski-resorts-close-christmas/

This will set back the efforts of other countries as skiiers return home from there.

They need to be taken off the returning flights and stuck in a hotel in isolation for 2 weeks

greyday

67 Deaths notified today, close to 6k infections.

snowcat

greyday wrote: »

67 Deaths notified today, close to 6k infections.

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/1126/1180717-cancer-figures/

The folly of lockdowns costing billions and indirectly killing many multiples of the people lost to Covid will be with us for years.

And those cancer deaths will be Lung Cervical Brest Testicular Skin cancers. People that would have been in their 20's-50's. Not people in their 80's and 90's in nursing homes with dementia that had one or two years left at best.

charlie14

snowcat wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/1126/1180717-cancer-figures/

The folly of lockdowns costing billions and indirectly killing many multiples of the people lost to Covid will be with us for years.

And those cancer deaths will be Lung Cervical Brest Testicular Skin cancers. People that would have been in their 20's-50's. Not people in their 80's and 90's in nursing homes with dementia that had one or two years left at best.[/QUOTE


The one country that we were told would never use lockdown because their strategy was so much superior no longer look on it as folly, and like everywhere else during the worst stages of the first wave Sweden cancelled cancer screening services and none essential surgeries too.

snowcat

brokekeyboard wrote: »

Prove it

I don't believe this common argument for one minute. There will be some collateral damage sure but the many multiples argument doesn't fly.

The proof is all around you. Look at the decimated business. The intolerable debt burden. The link i posted to the massive increase in cancer that will result from this. Massive increases in mental health issues, suicide etc. For what? Even the worst affected countries in the world have all had similiar death rates. Maybe a factor of 2 or 3 difference. Once Covid gets into the elderly in nursing homes lockdowns are pointless. There is not many countries in the world even with lockdowns that have protected the elderly. 90% of deaths occur in nursing homes and hospitals. Locking down the healthy is pointless once the virus is in the vulnerable areas. Lockdowns work but not if the virus has gotten to the vulnerable first.