Sweden avoiding lockdown

Akrasia

biko wrote: »

They don't have an argument, they just want you to add numbers for countries with high death rates.

Comparing a country with its neighbours isn't enough.

It is perfectly reasonable to compare countries with similar population demographics, health systems, geographical features and cultures

The differences in infection and death rates between similar closely connected countries can be more readily attributable to political choices than by just comparing them to the worst hit countries

biko

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think any argument at this early stage is kind of pointless, there is still not enough information available.

But now is not the time for I told you so, it is too early to tell.

Is that also true for China, Italy, USA? Or just Sweden?

Akrasia

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think any argument at this early stage is kind of pointless, there is still not enough information available. This gets compounded by untoward bias getting posted online. Every know-it-all seems to be handpicking facts from the web and dumping them to facilitate their own arguments about how this is going to pan out.

All we can tell for certain is that if you hide under your bed and don't leave the room you will not contract the virus. But you can't do anything else either.

Personally I think countries with less extreme measures will have larger herd immunity by now which will expedite their journey back to normality. Countries who have locked down sooner don't have this luxury. Obviously the downside of this is a larger death rate, for now.

There is no perfect solution at this point. Talk to a paramedic in Bergamo and you will most likely get a different opinion to one working in Sydney. This phucker has killed and mutated and killed again and we simply don't know what can happen.

But now is not the time for I told you so, it is too early to tell.

The countries eho are following the expert advice of Testing Testing Testing, handwashing and social distancing are seeing the curve flatten earlier and with fewer deaths.

Those who resist this advice see spikes in deaths and end up implementing the lockdowns anyway usually more extreme versions of the lockdown after much higher human cost has already been paid

jibber5000

wakka12 wrote: »

It makes sense but there is not any great proof of that yet

There is proof. Those numbers are from the HSE

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/20f2e0-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus-since-january-2020/

So only 44 people who died would have had a good long term survival prospect. Not belittling their tragic deaths just giving perspective to the profile of those dying

sydthebeat

jibber5000 wrote: »

Now stay with me here.
9% of those who have died here did so in Intensive care units.
Thus 91% died in wards or community.

When assessing whether a patient should go to ICU a score called the charlson comorbidity index is used. If that score is 0% 10 year survival, a patient will not be intubated.
In fact an anesthesist will likely not even assess the patient.
This will be assessed when a patient comes into ED with a likely covid infection.

So approx 91% of those who died were assessed by some medical professional and felt due to age and co morbidities that they were not fit for ICU. This should be done by using the CCMI.

Does that makes sense?

60% of deaths occurred in hospitals, which means 40% occurred in community.
ICUs numbers are included in hospital numbers, they are not separate.

you have no evidence to support that CCI assessment was carried out on all the 40% that died in community

sydthebeat

Akrasia wrote: »

So your issue was that the word 'probably' was misused rather than the use of the word itself

It was a statement of opinion rather than a statement of probability

That poster did justify their opinion in the claim that most of those dying from the virus were old with preexisting conditions and some of them could have been already on deaths door, but that in no way creates a strong enough case to justify a claim that a global pandenic involving a life threatening illness probably won't increase the overall death rate for the year

maybe its the double negative in this statement, but that reads as though you are just saying exactly what i am saying.....

a global pandemic which is killing people at higher rates that people normally die, WILL increase the over all death rate for the year.

the poster i quoted claimed otherwise

Multipass

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If this is success i'd hate to see what failure looks like

Yes but that curve will plunge just as steeply the other side, meaning it’s over with quicker. Whereas our curves will stretch out for longer. As long as ICUs don’t get overwhelmed who’s to say that pulling the plaster off quickly isn’t a valid strategy?

IAMAMORON

biko wrote: »

Is that also true for China, Italy, USA? Or just Sweden?

It is true for the entire world Biko. We have no clue how this is going to pan out.

jibber5000

sydthebeat wrote: »

60% of deaths occurred in hospitals, which means 40% occurred in community.
ICUs numbers are included in hospital numbers, they are not separate.

you have no evidence to support that CCI assessment was carried out on all the 40% that died in community

40% didn't die in the community however that's a false number.

As of 15/04 266 out of 402 had died in hospitals.
222 deaths icluding 187 nursing home residents were linked to other residential sites.
Obviously that adds up to 488 not 402 of which the discrepancy is down to nursing home patients being transferred to hospitals prior to dying and counted in both sets of figures.

Even if we say 187 out of 222 community deaths were in nursing homes, they will have been assessed by a GP for suitability of transfer to a hospital.

osarusan

Akrasia wrote: »

It is perfectly reasonable to compare countries with similar population demographics, health systems, geographical features and cultures

The differences in infection and death rates between similar closely connected countries can be more readily attributable to political choices than by just comparing them to the worst hit countries

You also need to look at the strategy each country is taking though. It's some balance of keeping people alive and avoiding economic pain, but not always the same balance.


Ireland, for example, has clearly prioritised keeping as many people alive as possible, and the economy will suffer in proportion.


If (and I don't know, so I am saying 'if') Sweden is willing to trade more deaths for less economic suffering, then more deaths isn't necessarily a sign that they are not doing a good job of implementing their strategy.

4068ac1elhodqr

Multipass wrote: »

Yes but that curve will plunge just as steeply the other side, meaning it’s over with quicker. Whereas our curves will stretch out for longer.
As long as ICUs don’t get overwhelmed who’s to say that pulling the plaster off quickly isn’t a valid strategy?

The only single effective way to prevent ICU getting overwhelmed is to 'flatten the curve' with a gradual cautious approach.

The Swedish 'spike' is the polar opposite of this most sensible approach.

sydthebeat

Swedens numbers today are worrying.

Completely going against the trend of low weekend numbers due to processing.

Either they have changed their administration processes, or we are in for some seriously worrying figures come midweek

biko

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It is true for the entire world Biko. We have no clue how this is going to pan out.

I agree that it's not over yet.

Even then I think we should measure continuously rather than wait a year.
For instance Wuhan’s numbers have now doubled.

Akrasia

Multipass wrote: »

Yes but that curve will plunge just as steeply the other side, meaning it’s over with quicker. Whereas our curves will stretch out for longer. As long as ICUs don’t get overwhelmed who’s to say that pulling the plaster off quickly isn’t a valid strategy?

Exponential growth is a mother****er. Sweden, or anybody cannot cope with having 50% of their entire population sick at the same time, with 10% of those people requiring hospitalization and ventilation to survive

The end may come sooner but the cost would be enormous

Glenomra

Sweden only 111 deaths in last 24 hours, a continuation of similar figures of the last few days. Where's this massive spike all the experts told us was coming. Were they wrong again?

dubrov

sydthebeat wrote: »

Swedens numbers today are worrying.

Completely going against the trend of low weekend numbers due to processing.

Either they have changed their administration processes, or we are in for some seriously worrying figures come midweek

I really don't understand why all countries just don't report their numbers by date of death rather than reporting date. It makes it very hard to determine what the current rat of change is.

sydthebeat

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden only 111 deaths in last 24 hours, a continuation of similar figures of the last few days. Where's this massive spike all the experts told us was coming. Were they wrong again?

Last Saturday they reported 17 deaths.
111 today.

Last Wednesday they reported 170...

And attempt to suggest what next Wednesdays numbers will be?

MadYaker

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden only 111 deaths in last 24 hours, a continuation of similar figures of the last few days. Where's this massive spike all the experts told us was coming. Were they wrong again?

Only? Thats shocking in any context. Our population is half of theirs and we've had 435 deaths total, they just reported 111 in 24 hours and you think thats ok?

4068ac1elhodqr

One factor in Sweden is that those with foreign backgrounds are disproportionately affected by the new coronavirus.
Plenty of the 1/2million or so that came to Sweden in the last 10yrs may have issues intergrating (language, customs etc).

The country's Public Health Agency reported that Somali-born residents in Sweden were over-represented among those in need of hospital care for COVID-19, as were people born in Eritrea, Finland, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and the former Yugoslavia.

Stockholm also has 40% of all cases (of the 1st 15 deaths in Stockholm, 6 were people of Somali origin), poor neighbourhoods has x3 fold infection rates and multiples of generations can live in the same apartments, unlike native Swedes.

State epidemiologist said "For us the main signal is really that we need to reach those groups better with different kinds of messages to help protect them"

Sounds like many do not listen to state news/advice, and may live in a bubble within their own communities.

Local authorities have therefore been stepping up information efforts in these areas, distributing material in 26 languages other than Swedish.
Flyers are now handed out in various languages: Russian, Finnish, Arabic, Tigrinya, Somali and Persian to name a few.

The main recommendation to refrain from visiting elderly relatives would be inconceivable among certain immigrant communities.

A distrust of authorities could also play a role, but the authorities' real "blind spot" was that immigrant communities sometimes have their own social networks, power hierarchies and authority figures.
https://www.france24.com/en/20200418-coronavirus-spotlights-swedish-segregation

wakka12

Multipass wrote: »

Yes but that curve will plunge just as steeply the other side, meaning it’s over with quicker. Whereas our curves will stretch out for longer. As long as ICUs don’t get overwhelmed who’s to say that pulling the plaster off quickly isn’t a valid strategy?

Did Italy or Spain plunge steeply? NO, there is no example of a country that experienced a large scale epidemic that hasnt gone on for weeks unless they implemented extremely strict measures like China or SK

wakka12

Glenomra wrote: »

Sweden only 111 deaths in last 24 hours, a continuation of similar figures of the last few days. Where's this massive spike all the experts told us was coming. Were they wrong again?

Id have to wonder if youre trolling or not, deaths are now at almost 1000 for the total of last 10 days. How is that not a spike?

Sweden is 1/6th the size of France and Italy, who have reported 600-700 daily deaths the last while. Sweden's figures today would be a similar 660 for today if it were their size.Have you seriously been saying wow 'only' 600-700 deaths in France and Italy the last few days?

Joe_ Public

Bailee Curved Lobotomy wrote: »

One factor in Sweden is that those with foreign backgrounds are disproportionately affected by the new coronavirus.
Plenty of the 1/2million or so that came to Sweden in the last 10yrs may have issues intergrating (language, customs etc).

The country's Public Health Agency reported that Somali-born residents in Sweden were over-represented among those in need of hospital care for COVID-19, as were people born in Eritrea, Finland, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and the former Yugoslavia.

Stockholm also has 40% of all cases (of the 1st 15 deaths in Stockholm, 6 were people of Somali origin), poor neighbourhoods has x3 fold infection rates and multiples of generations can live in the same apartments, unlike native Swedes.

State epidemiologist said "For us the main signal is really that we need to reach those groups better with different kinds of messages to help protect them"

Sounds like many do not listen to state news/advice, and may live in a bubble within their own communities.

Local authorities have therefore been stepping up information efforts in these areas, distributing material in 26 languages other than Swedish.
Flyers are now handed out in various languages: Russian, Finnish, Arabic, Tigrinya, Somali and Persian to name a few.

The main recommendation to refrain from visiting elderly relatives would be inconceivable among certain immigrant communities.

A distrust of authorities could also play a role, but the authorities' real "blind spot" was that immigrant communities sometimes have their own social networks, power hierarchies and authority figures.
https://www.france24.com/en/20200418-coronavirus-spotlights-swedish-segregation

There could be several factors. Another possible factor is the immigrant communities tend to be poorer and so you will likely find a significantly greater proportion of underlying health conditions which will then have potentially serious consequences when a health crisis like this one strikes.

RugbyLad11

MadYaker wrote: »

Only? Thats shocking in any context. Our population is half of theirs and we've had 435 deaths total, they just reported 111 in 24 hours and you think thats ok?

And we had 44 deaths yesterday which is almost half of their 111 deaths in 24 hours

wakka12

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

And we had 44 deaths yesterday which is almost half of their 111 deaths in 24 hours

That is our highest ever number, vs their lowest in a few days

IAMAMORON

Akrasia wrote: »

The countries eho are following the expert advice of Testing Testing Testing, handwashing and social distancing are seeing the curve flatten earlier and with fewer deaths.

Those who resist this advice see spikes in deaths and end up implementing the lockdowns anyway usually more extreme versions of the lockdown after much higher human cost has already been paid

I thinks testing is only useful if it is widespread and efficient. For example, hypothetically I could easily have been tested 4 weeks ago and then contracted the virus on the bus home from the test centre. In the meantime I get a test result saying I am negative. The testing mantra only works if it is applied robustly and is then followed up by contact tracing. It does not look like either has happened in Ireland yet, initial testing has raised eyebrows nationally.

We are only doing so well because of the lockdown and of course handwashing. Test results don't stop the spread of the virus, they merely inform medics that you have the virus or don't at a specific time.

Too many countries appear to be high fiving and back slapping themselves over their testing, I am not sure how beneficial it is as yet. As a sufferer you will know all about it if you cannot breath and are in an Ambulance, testing positive at that point will be the last of your worries.

DeanAustin

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think any argument at this early stage is kind of pointless, there is still not enough information available. This gets compounded by untoward bias getting posted online. Every know-it-all seems to be handpicking facts from the web and dumping them to facilitate their own arguments about how this is going to pan out.

All we can tell for certain is that if you hide under your bed and don't leave the room you will not contract the virus. But you can't do anything else either.

Personally I think countries with less extreme measures will have larger herd immunity by now which will expedite their journey back to normality. Countries who have locked down sooner don't have this luxury. Obviously the downside of this is a larger death rate, for now.

There is no perfect solution at this point. Talk to a paramedic in Bergamo and you will most likely get a different opinion to one working in Sydney. This phucker has killed and mutated and killed again and we simply don't know what can happen.

But now is not the time for I told you so, it is too early to tell.

Great post. All the approaches taken have logic to them and our approach and Sweden's may turn out to be just as effective or effective in different ways. No one knows. The indignation I've seen from some people that everyone isn't locking down as if they are experts annoys me.

No one knows how this will ultimately pan out. I sincerely believe that most governments are making decisions on how to deal with the virus (if not the reporting of it) in good faith. History will judge how right or otherwise they've been. At this point, it's just too soon to tell.

Joe_ Public

In relation to testing South Korea is often referred to in glowing terms, so it's interesting that in a chart of 20 countries i saw listed earlier in terms of volume of testing, Korea was only listed as 17th.

So seems to suggest there were other factors involved or it came down not necessarily to volume but to efficiency and contact tracing. Maybe a bit of good old-fashioned luck involved too.

wakka12

Joe_ Public wrote: »

In relation to testing South Korea is often referred to in glowing terms, so it's interesting that in a chart of 20 countries i saw listed earlier in terms of volume of testing, Korea was only listed as 17th.

So seems to suggest there were other factors involved or it came down not necessarily to volume but to efficiency and contact tracing. Maybe a bit of good old-fashioned luck involved too.

Yes, SK was just top of the world in testing at the time of it's major outbreak,which is months ago now. Once that was suppressed, there was not much need fo such high levels of testing after, many countries have much higher numbers of tests per capita now including Ireland, but for many countries the testing came too little too late at least compared to how SK handled it

Joe_ Public

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes, SK was just top of the world in testing at the time of it's major outbreak,which is months ago now. Once that was suppressed, there was not much need fo such high levels of testing after, many countries have much higher numbers of tests per capita now including Ireland, but for many countries the testing came too little too late at least compared to how SK handled it

I dont think their testing numbers were actually huge though, compared to what some countries are testing now, they were never reaching those figures. They were highest because lots of other countries were low. Maybe it was how they tested, the contact tracing and the fact - learning from the sars experience - they nailed it from the very beginning. That's how they managed to contain it, or first wave at least.

jibber5000

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I thinks testing is only useful if it is widespread and efficient. For example, hypothetically I could easily have been tested 4 weeks ago and then contracted the virus on the bus home from the test centre. In the meantime I get a test result saying I am negative. The testing mantra only works if it is applied robustly and is then followed up by contact tracing. It does not look like either has happened in Ireland yet, initial testing has raised eyebrows nationally.

We are only doing so well because of the lockdown and of course handwashing. Test results don't stop the spread of the virus, they merely inform medics that you have the virus or don't at a specific time.

Too many countries appear to be high fiving and back slapping themselves over their testing, I am not sure how beneficial it is as yet. As a sufferer you will know all about it if you cannot breath and are in an Ambulance, testing positive at that point will be the last of your worries.

The problem with testing is the 70% sensitivity with the Pcr.

It can actually give someone a fall sense of security that even if they're not feeling great, theyre covid negative so can get on with things.

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

Good breakdown of the whole Sweden position. Worth a watch