Sweden avoiding lockdown

charlie14

the incredible pudding wrote: »

That doesn't address anything I said at all. Whether or not you consider the approach equitable with the Irish system or not isn't relevant, nor is its cost. It's not the same as unemployment here (which separately grew and shrank over the past year). They're different systems and were also in place in the rest of Scandinavia, Germany and the Netherlands. Throwing them together is a gross simplification of a very complex issue. If you want to use it for point scoring but can't produce a source then well, good luck with that.



I'm not going to begin to engage with further whataboutism with using Wuhan as some measuring stick of what a lockdown is. I would question the wisdom of using declaring something is in a state when you don't have a definition for that state. However, If closing schools for the 16-18 age group falls in your definition for a lockdown then you'd have to also fall into the thinking that Sweden was in lockdown back I'm spring and summer when they were also closed? Or was it "let rip" then? What other evidence is there that there's a lockdown in Sweden currently? It certainly doesn't feel like there's one and I wouldn't have been against it if it had been introduced.

I agree there are different system. The point you appear to have missed is that for Ireland, some posters were lumping them all together when comparing Sweden to Ireland. I simply compared them on a like for like basis using the same criterion.

Sweden at present, under the latest recommendations/restrictions and the new law on public gathering under their Public Order Act, are more or less at Level 3 lockdown in Ireland. The only "whataboutism" is if it that constitutes a lockdown in Ireland how does it not in Sweden.

greyday

60 Deaths notified today and over 6K infections, The strategy Frank supports is going very well, the message was wrong at the start and they are still paying for it even though they have tried to change the message, most other responsible Countries would go for a complete lockdown now when they can see their advise is not being heeded, Lovren stated recently that the type of Christmas the Swedes get to enjoy will depend on their behaviour between now and then..........lets see what happens when the regular death rate is over 100.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

What do you mean again? I thought they were always open in line with their "let it rip" strategy?*

*sarcasm

They did a very bad job at the letting it rip - its almost like they didn't want to let it rip!

Charlie will be along to tell us otherwise no doubt, that herd immunity was the primary goal etc (even when evidence points to the opposite).

Charlie would much rather not have to waste his time pointing out to you what you are well aware off but have chosen to ignore.

From early March e-mails between Tegnell and Giesecke, Giesecke and Tredje AP-fonden (AP3) (who employed him as a health consultant at the time), Tegnell and his Finnish counterpart Mika Salminen, and Tegnell and Peet Tull, former head of head of the National Board of Health and Welfare Infectious Disease Department all clearly show that the primary aim of the Swedish strategy was herd immunity.


Annika Linde, Sweden`s former state epidemiologist has stated she knew from the outset herd immunity was the aim.

JimmyVik

charlie14 wrote: »

Charlie would much rather not have to waste his time pointing out to you what you are well aware off but have chosen to ignore.

From early March e-mails between Tegnell and Giesecke, Giesecke and Tredje AP-fonden (AP3) (who employed him as a health consultant at the time), Tegnell and his Finnish counterpart Mika Salminen, and Tegnell and Peet Tull, former head of head of the National Board of Health and Welfare Infectious Disease Department all clearly show that the primary aim of the Swedish strategy was herd immunity.


Annika Linde, Sweden`s former state epidemiologist has stated she knew from the outset herd immunity was the aim.

Touve said that at least 10 times in this thread now.
It seems to go straight through and out the other side of Franks head each time without stopping.
Why do you bother anymore?
In my eyes you have well and truly won the argument here.

tobefrank321

TonyMaloney wrote: »

There's tons of evidence that it was a herd immunity strategy. I mean it's overwhelming.
I can provide letters, videos, interviews to prove it.

What have you got? Tegnell's subsequent lies?

A large number of restrictions including mandatory ones such as over 16s kept out of school, bans on nursing home visits during peaks, a ban on large gatherings, and advisories on working from home akin to the one currently in Ireland.

I'll take these actions over email speculation any day.

The restrictions from the Swedes meant they'd never reach herd immunity and we've been reminded on here by one poster how far out they've been.

sydthebeat

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The restrictions from the Swedes meant they'd never reach herd immunity and we've been reminded on here by one poster how far out they've been.

evidence of failure of the strategy does not equate to evidence that the strategy didn't exist

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

Touve said that at least 10 times in this thread now.
It seems to go straight through and out the other side of Franks head each time without stopping.
Why do you bother anymore?
In my eyes you have well and truly won the argument here.

If you ignore the many RESTRICTIONS sure they let it rip.

Charlie can tout the herd immunity strategy all he wants.

No-one but a few gives him credance any more.

Any poster who pretends there was no restrictions in Sweden is an obvious wind up merchant.

tobefrank321

sydthebeat wrote: »

evidence of failure of the strategy does not equate to evidence that the strategy didn't exist

Its very very easy to achieve herd immunity if thats the route you choose to go down.

Banning crowds over 50 is not the way to go about it!

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

60 Deaths notified today and over 6K infections, The strategy Frank supports is going very well, the message was wrong at the start and they are still paying for it even though they have tried to change the message, most other responsible Countries would go for a complete lockdown now when they can see their advise is not being heeded, Lovren stated recently that the type of Christmas the Swedes get to enjoy will depend on their behaviour between now and then..........lets see what happens when the regular death rate is over 100.

Here we go again. I can keep this up as long as you, I don't mind.

Sweden 60 deaths.

Hard Lockdown countries
Poland 531 (it was 620 yesterday - ten times that of Swedens)
Hungary 189
Romania 176
Belgium 122
Austria 113
Serbia 69
Croatia 68 - has less than half Swedens population
Switzerland 62
Bosnia Hertz 53 - has less than a third of Swedens population

From yesterday
Italy posted 993 yesterday - their record, even worse than the spring
Bulgaria 156 - 70% of Swedens population
Slovenia 45 - the equivalent of over 200 in Sweden
Czechia 126

I'm fairly sure the responses will be along the lines of ignoring outcomes in these hard lockdown countries.

charlie14

JimmyVik wrote: »

Touve said that at least 10 times in this thread now.
It seems to go straight through and out the other side of Franks head each time without stopping.
Why do you bother anymore?
In my eyes you have well and truly won the argument here.

It`s not so much an argument with Frank as a bizarre attempt at denial of facts.
Those e-mails are now "speculation" it seems.

JimmyVik

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If you ignore the many RESTRICTIONS sure they let it rip.

Charlie can tout the herd immunity strategy all he wants.

No-one but a few gives him credance any more.

Any poster who pretends there was no restrictions in Sweden is an obvious wind up merchant.

You are relentless. Entertaining though.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

It`s not so much an argument with Frank as a bizarre attempt at denial of facts.
Those e-mails are now "speculation" it seems.

We've been over this countless times.

I'll put it in bold if it helps?

Numerous countries discussed herd immunity in March, most prominently The Netherlands and UK. Discussing something is different to doing it.
For herd immunity to work, it means ZERO restrictions. With restrictions such as a ban on large gatherings or school for over 16s herd immunity is impossible. Every country now leaves primary schools open - I guess that means every country is following herd immunity by your logic?

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

You are relentless. Entertaining though.

And right.

Ginger n Lemon

tobefrank321 wrote: »

And right.

Unfortunately truth and common sense do not have much weight in this thread. Your efforts are in vain.

As posters here say:
1) Swedish strategy was a failure because they let it rip
2) Bloomberg reported in Q2 that Swedish GDP decrease more than Irish
3) Look they reported 60 deaths, their strategy is a big fail.
4) Tegnell is a liar and immoral man.
5) Sweden has same lockdown as every other country

yada yada yada




Sometimes as I read posts here I imagine myself being in a mental institution, this is akin to Shutter island.

tobefrank321

In mid march Tegnall said "The role of children in this epidemic is hard to understand, I think. Evidently they are not the motor of the epidemic as with influenza."

He came to the conclusion against a pile of bullsh*t from just about everyone including his predecessor.

As late as May Tony Holohan here was rejecting reopening schools.

Dr Tony Holohan rejected any view that there there was “mounting evidence” showing that children do not appear to be super spreaders of the coronavirus as previously thought.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-holohan-dismisses-possibility-of-reopening-schools-early-1.4252401

In October he'd changed his tune, rejecting calls to close schools, 7 months after Tegnall came to this conclusion.

Now almost every country leaves primary schools open.

TonyMaloney

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We've been over this countless times.

I'll put it in bold if it helps?

Numerous countries discussed herd immunity in March, most prominently The Netherlands and UK. Discussing something is different to doing it.
For herd immunity to work, it means ZERO restrictions. With restrictions such as a ban on large gatherings or school for over 16s herd immunity is impossible. Every country now leaves primary schools open - I guess that means every country is following herd immunity by your logic?

Putting it in bold rarely helps. Certainly not in this case.
I've been a bit more judicious with it, highlighting some completely incorrect things you've just said.

Mad. One paragraph and with so much crap in it.

greyday

Frank Said there is nothing to worry about....but....
https://fortune.com/2020/11/26/sweden-worried-herd-immunity-covid-poll/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/covid-infections-in-sweden-surge-dashing-hopes-of-herd-immunity
https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-herd-immunity-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-hospitalisations-surge-2020-11?r=US&IR=T
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/sweden-s-top-epidemiologist-says-herd-immunity-remains-a-mystery
https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

They went for it, they didnt change track, they just tried to get it slower than they had initially wanted, now they dont want it at all but its too late, those in power know they wont last much longer with death rates about to soar.....Tegnell will go soon but those that enabled him to experiment with vulnerable will almost certainly follow him at election tine.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Frank Said there is nothing to worry about....but....
https://fortune.com/2020/11/26/sweden-worried-herd-immunity-covid-poll/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/covid-infections-in-sweden-surge-dashing-hopes-of-herd-immunity
https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-herd-immunity-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-hospitalisations-surge-2020-11?r=US&IR=T
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/sweden-s-top-epidemiologist-says-herd-immunity-remains-a-mystery
https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

They went for it, they didnt change track, they just tried to get it slower than they had initially wanted, now they dont want it at all but its too late, those in power know they wont last much longer with death rates about to soar.....Tegnell will go soon but those that enabled him to experiment with vulnerable will almost certainly follow him at election tine.

I don't have the time to read all those links - give me the highlights.

Tegnell said locking down wouldn't make a big difference to deaths - in this he was largely prescient - Its unlikely to have made any difference for the 22 countries who have done worse than Sweden and the 9 or 10 more who are doing worse on a daily basis.

At the end of the day, Sweden will end up about 30th on deaths per million - this is very likely where they would have ended up anyways had they opted for various lockdowns.

Ireland's cases and deaths will also bounce back over the christmas as sure as night follows day. Lockdowns are not sustainable.

This is not rocket science.

the incredible pudding

charlie14 wrote: »

I agree there are different system. The point you appear to have missed is that for Ireland, some posters were lumping them all together when comparing Sweden to Ireland. I simply compared them on a like for like basis using the same criterion.

I don't see why what other people are doing matters. That's not a point that one can miss. If you think they're being disingenuous say so, you don't have to lower yourself to the same type of false reasoning. The presence of a broken window in a house doesn't excuse one throwing stones at another one.

Sweden at present, under the latest recommendations/restrictions and the new law on public gathering under their Public Order Act, are more or less at Level 3 lockdown in Ireland. The only "whataboutism" is if it that constitutes a lockdown in Ireland how does it not in Sweden.

There is practically very little difference in Sweden right now from how it was in back in April - June. Then, many public spaces such as museums and libraries were closed, people were told to work from home, Universities and school for those over 16 were stopped, many events hosted from public spaces like classes and hobbyist activities were cancelled and called off. How is it different enough to warrant such a distinction?

You can't have it both ways where it used to be 'let it rip' and now it's a 'lockdown'. My experience of it here is that's it's really not been that different.
How many people consider level 3 a lockdown in Ireland? When pubs were open? If anything word I was getting from people back home was that things were opening up and looking at a comparison I'd still say one would have more freedom in Sweden comparatively.

tobefrank321

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Putting it in bold rarely helps. Certainly not in this case.
I've been a bit more judicious with it, highlighting some completely incorrect things you've just said.

Mad. One paragraph and with so much crap in it.

I'd ask you to tell me the parts I got wrong, but I doubt I'd get a detailed answer from you.

Ginger n Lemon

the incredible pudding wrote: »

I don't see why what other people are doing matters. That's not a point that one can miss. If you think they're being disingenuous say so, you don't have to lower yourself to the same type of false reasoning. The presence of a broken window in a house doesn't excuse one throwing stones at another one.




There is practically very little difference in Sweden right now from how it was in back in April - June. Then, many public spaces such as museums and libraries were closed, people were told to work from home, Universities and school for those over 16 were stopped, many events hosted from public spaces like classes and hobbyist activities were cancelled and called off. How is it different enough to warrant such a distinction?

You can't have it both ways where it used to be 'let it rip' and now it's a 'lockdown'. My experience of it here is that's it's really not been that different.
How many people consider level 3 a lockdown in Ireland? When pubs were open? If anything word I was getting from people back home was that things were opening up and looking at a comparison I'd still say one would have more freedom in Sweden comparatively.

Well if today is anything to go by there is literally no lockdown except wet pubs being closed. I was in town for lunch - mad busy. Youd think this is pre 2020 time. and weather is woeful... still turn out is huge.

We do have Gardai surveying where people are going at checkpoints. Conversation goes something like this

*driver pulls up*
*lowers the window*
Gardai: work is it?
Driver: yep.
Gardai: have a good day.


I can see a lot of people being sceptical over 2020 events. This level of stupidity is very rare to come by. And huge waste of taxpayers money ofcourse.

cnocbui

greyday wrote: »

https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se

Oh Look, The WHO website added the 174 notified deaths 2 days later than the sites cnocbui discredited

Oh look, you are still trying to push that joke website that overstates the total deaths by a whopping 2.4%.

greyday

cnocbui wrote: »

Oh look, you are still trying to push that joke website that overstates the total deaths by a whopping 2.4%.

You really have no clue at all.
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GCEA_enIE928IE928&ei=RG3KX_vGItql1fAPgvupoAQ&q=offician+swedish+covid+death+toll&oq=offician+swedish+covid+death+toll&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzIICCEQFhAdEB4yCAghEBYQHRAeOg4IABCxAxCDARDJAxCRAjoLCAAQsQMQgwEQkQI6DgguELEDEIMBEMcBEKMCOg4ILhCxAxCDARDHARCvAToICAAQsQMQgwE6BQgAELEDOgoIABCxAxCDARBDOgQIABBDOg0ILhCxAxDHARCjAhBDOgoILhDHARCjAhBDOgcIABCxAxBDOhAILhCxAxCDARDHARCjAhBDOgoIABCxAxDJAxBDOgUILhCxAzoCCAA6BAgAEAo6BQgAEMkDOg0ILhCxAxDJAxAKEJMCOgcIABCxAxAKOgcIABDJAxANOgQIABANOgYILhANEAo6BQghEKABOgYIABAWEB46CQgAEMkDEBYQHjoHCCEQChCgAToECCEQFVCFElizZ2DwaWgAcAF4AIABiwGIAeAVkgEEMzAuM5gBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXrAAQE&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwj7-K3O6LTtAhXaUhUIHYJ9CkQQ4dUDCA0&uact=5

and then we have the lagging WHO website......
https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Unfortunately truth and common sense do not have much weight in this thread. Your efforts are in vain.

As posters here say:
1) Swedish strategy was a failure because they let it rip
2) Bloomberg reported in Q2 that Swedish GDP decrease more than Irish
3) Look they reported 60 deaths, their strategy is a big fail.
4) Tegnell is a liar and immoral man.
5) Sweden has same lockdown as every other country

yada yada yada




Sometimes as I read posts here I imagine myself being in a mental institution, this is akin to Shutter island.

Sometimes when I read posts I find it difficult to believe that the poster is not in a mental institution.

1. Sweden`s strategy has been a failure on every level that some here where predicting it would be such a success we were crazy not to be following it. From no lockdown ever, too herd immunity, (you even saw it as so imminent you believed Sweden would be attracting vast numbers of tourists Summer 2020) GDP, unemployment,consumer spending etc. etc.

2. If that is what Bloomberg reported in Q2 they were correct. That is unless you do not know what contraction means.
Sweden`s GDP contracted by 8.6% Q2. Ireland`s by 6.1%.

3.Hardly a measure of success.

4.It`s clear from numerous e-mails accessed under freedom of information and from Annika Linde he lied about herd immunity and chasing it was as immoral in March as he recently acknowledged it to be now.

He has also tended to sail close to the wind on immunity levels where he was still picking numbers out of very thin air after the first antibody test results, and recent numbers on daily deaths when they were fact checked.

5. There is no such thing as a universal formula of lockdown. To attempt to say that Sweden if not now using a lockdown strategy is simple head in the sand.

charlie14

the incredible pudding wrote: »

I don't see why what other people are doing matters. That's not a point that one can miss. If you think they're being disingenuous say so, you don't have to lower yourself to the same type of false reasoning. The presence of a broken window in a house doesn't excuse one throwing stones at another one.




There is practically very little difference in Sweden right now from how it was in back in April - June. Then, many public spaces such as museums and libraries were closed, people were told to work from home, Universities and school for those over 16 were stopped, many events hosted from public spaces like classes and hobbyist activities were cancelled and called off. How is it different enough to warrant such a distinction?

You can't have it both ways where it used to be 'let it rip' and now it's a 'lockdown'. My experience of it here is that's it's really not been that different.
How many people consider level 3 a lockdown in Ireland? When pubs were open? If anything word I was getting from people back home was that things were opening up and looking at a comparison I'd still say one would have more freedom in Sweden comparatively.

I did. I even posted Bloomberg figures and those of a leading Swedish bank that said on a like for like basis they were incorrect. In the end I had to do the calculations and post them to hopefully stop the breaking of any more windows.

The difference in Sweden now is that these new restrictions/recommendations and the new legal penalties on public gatherings are more or less the same as a level 3 lockdown here. Something posters here were arguing would never happen due to Sweden`s original strategy.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

Sometimes when I read posts I find it difficult to believe that the poster is not in a mental institution.

1. Sweden`s strategy has been a failure on every level that some here where predicting it would be such a success we were crazy not to be following it. From no lockdown ever, too herd immunity, (you even saw it as so imminent you believed Sweden would be attracting vast numbers of tourists Summer 2020) GDP, unemployment,consumer spending etc. etc.

2. If that is what Bloomberg reported in Q2 they were correct. That is unless you do not know what contraction means.
Sweden`s GDP contracted by 8.6% Q2. Ireland`s by 6.1%.

3.Hardly a measure of success.

4.It`s clear from numerous e-mails accessed under freedom of information and from Annika Linde he lied about herd immunity and chasing it was as immoral in March as he recently acknowledged it to be now.

He has also tended to sail close to the wind on immunity levels where he was still picking numbers out of very thin air after the first antibody test results, and recent numbers on daily deaths when they were fact checked.

5. There is no such thing as a universal formula of lockdown. To attempt to say that Sweden if not now using a lockdown strategy is simple head in the sand.

Charlie there is a lot of rubbish there, you do seem to be also particularly aggressive in bold.

Unfortunately, I have to remind you that Irish GDP should not be looked at as a measure of economic activity for 95%+ of entire population

"Ireland’s economy fared much better than the rest of Europe during the Covid-19 crisis, with economic activity contracting by just 6.1 per cent in the second quarter compared to a euro area average of 12 per cent, despite a more severe lockdown.

No wait, that’s wrong, it fared much worse. Modified domestic demand, an alternative measure of economic activity which weeds out the statistical noise from multinationals, suggests we suffered a 16.4 per cent hit."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-gdp-numbers-too-good-to-be-true-1.4348897

Welcome to the Irish national accounts, where every story has a caveat or countervailing narrative; and where the headline economic data bears little resemblance to life on the ground.


Hopefully you ll be able to move on from Q2 GDP comparisons between Ireland and Sweden now.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We've been over this countless times.

I'll put it in bold if it helps?

Numerous countries discussed herd immunity in March, most prominently The Netherlands and UK. Discussing something is different to doing it.
For herd immunity to work, it means ZERO restrictions. With restrictions such as a ban on large gatherings or school for over 16s herd immunity is impossible. Every country now leaves primary schools open - I guess that means every country is following herd immunity by your logic?

But only one country that admitted in early March out of the three possible strategies, herd immunity was the choice.
Tegnell made that very clear in his e-mail exchanges with Peet Tull the former head of Sweden`s National Board of Health and Welfare Infection Disease Department.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Charlie there is a lot of rubbish there, you do seem to be also particularly aggressive in bold.

Unfortunately, I have to remind you that Irish GDP should not be looked at as a measure of economic activity for 95%+ of entire population

"Ireland’s economy fared much better than the rest of Europe during the Covid-19 crisis, with economic activity contracting by just 6.1 per cent in the second quarter compared to a euro area average of 12 per cent, despite a more severe lockdown.

No wait, that’s wrong, it fared much worse. Modified domestic demand, an alternative measure of economic activity which weeds out the statistical noise from multinationals, suggests we suffered a 16.4 per cent hit."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-gdp-numbers-too-good-to-be-true-1.4348897

Welcome to the Irish national accounts, where every story has a caveat or countervailing narrative; and where the headline economic data bears little resemblance to life on the ground.


Hopefully you ll be able to move on from Q2 GDP comparisons between Ireland and Sweden now.

From my reply to your 5 points the one you contest is the one where you believed Bloomberg were incorrect.

Hopefully should you ever consider posting similar in future you will first look up the word "contract" and realise that Bloomberg were correct before doing so.

tobefrank321

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Charlie there is a lot of rubbish there, you do seem to be also particularly aggressive in bold.

Unfortunately, I have to remind you that Irish GDP should not be looked at as a measure of economic activity for 95%+ of entire population

"Ireland’s economy fared much better than the rest of Europe during the Covid-19 crisis, with economic activity contracting by just 6.1 per cent in the second quarter compared to a euro area average of 12 per cent, despite a more severe lockdown.

No wait, that’s wrong, it fared much worse. Modified domestic demand, an alternative measure of economic activity which weeds out the statistical noise from multinationals, suggests we suffered a 16.4 per cent hit."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-gdp-numbers-too-good-to-be-true-1.4348897

Welcome to the Irish national accounts, where every story has a caveat or countervailing narrative; and where the headline economic data bears little resemblance to life on the ground.


Hopefully you ll be able to move on from Q2 GDP comparisons between Ireland and Sweden now.

We're lucky to have a lot of US owned companies with European HQ based here who did quite well from the pandemic! Pharma and IT ones in particular.

Swedens exports on the otherhand were hit by lockdowns elsewhere - eg IKEA, Volvo, Scania. Car sales collapsed in the spring.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

But only one country that admitted in early March out of the three possible strategies, herd immunity was the choice.
Tegnell made that very clear in his e-mail exchanges with Peet Tull the former head of Sweden`s National Board of Health and Welfare Infection Disease Department.

This is a lie.

The UK made a huge deal about going down the herd immunity route. They allowed sports events to continue with full crowds.

They obviously decided in mid March to go for herd immunity.