Sweden avoiding lockdown

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

Oh but, but, but what about ....
and what about ....


Its over man. Stop. Give people a break.

If you're going to argue a strategy has failed, at least make an effort to compare it to something, rather than just saying "it failed".

There's a large number of countries in Europe that opted for the lockdown approach, in fact 50 or so of them. A large number are now currently in a far worse state than Sweden.

If these countries were doing well I'd be the first to say Sweden's strategy was a failure. But so far, Sweden's strategy is mid table.

And mid table is always better than bottom of the table!

Ginger n Lemon

Frank in fairness I did warn you in the past to give up.

You are debating with people who think that 1 covid death of an 85 year old man is a tragedy. In their eyes you cant say Swedish strategy is solid or is long term living etc. unless their covid deaths are 0. Comparing Sweden to any other country other than Norway will not get you anywhere.

Norwegians and Swedes are well they are borderline alien like according to this thread. You want to compare Sweden and Ireland? you mad? outrage. those Swedes have 3 legs and 4 arms and are very obedient of their govt advice, 50% + live alone. yada yada yada

Sweden and Czech republic? nope. Dont compare those 2 either. its like world apart :rolleyes:

TonyMaloney

tobefrank321 wrote: »

This is the source that worldometers use.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

The graph at the top is new cases, middle graph is ICU admissions and bottom graph is deaths.

The bottom graph in particular shows a clear peak on November 24th and then a decline.

Cases at the top show a stabilization after a sharp increase from mid October to Mid November.

The ICU graph is showing a daily decline.

Ok Frank, it's quite clear from what you've just said that you don't understand what you're looking at.

On deaths - the data from March to about November 24th is sound and complete. The latest data - from about the 25th is incomplete.

Think about it. Why, when you have steadily rising cases, would you see such a drop in deaths?
Swedish data always looks like this since they changed their reporting method.
Even if the whole country went Bergamo, the data they'd put out would show a sharp decline.

I'm probably being optimistic here, but on the off chance you accept and understand this objective truth - does it change your opinion on Sweden at all?

TonyMaloney

Their ICU stats are similar, but the lag isn't as pronounced

tobefrank321

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Ok Frank, it's quite clear from what you've just said that you don't understand what you're looking at.

On deaths - the data from March to about November 24th is sound and complete. The latest data - from about the 25th is incomplete.

Think about it. Why, when you have steadily rising cases, would you see such a drop in deaths?
Swedish data always looks like this since they changed their reporting method.
Even if the whole country went Bergamo, the data they'd put out would show a sharp decline.

I'm probably being optimistic here, but on the off chance you accept and understand this objective truth - does it change your opinion on Sweden at all?

We can keep track of this for next few weeks and see where deaths are going. Wednesday seems to be a day they update deaths significantly if last week is anything to go by. At a certain point if you're proved right, the days after November 24th will be even higher than Nov 24th. So far they are not.

The relationship between cases and deaths is linked to the age profile of cases. A large number of elderly infected, you will see high deaths. A large number of young people infected, lower deaths.

The data in every country is all over the place. If in Ireland they say 0 deaths today, in reality there could have been 5 deaths today. The 0 deaths are notified today. When they say 10 deaths today, some of those people would have died in November.

Tony, the main stat I'm interested in is deaths per million as this is the main one that counts and the most reliable long term one. Yesterday Bulgaria was the latest country to jump ahead of Sweden, pushing them down to 25th on the list. Romania posted 213 deaths today for a population twice that of Sweden. They will go ahead of Sweden next weekend. Switzerland and Hungary will pass them next week.

Sweden will end up about 30th on deaths per million and Ireland probably about 45th.

TonyMaloney

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We can keep track of this for next few weeks and see where deaths are going. Wednesday seems to be a day they update deaths significantly if last week is anything to go by. At a certain point if you're proved right, the days after November 24th will be even higher than Nov 24th. So far they are not.

The relationship between cases and deaths is linked to the age profile of cases. A large number of elderly infected, you will see high deaths.

The data in every country is all over the place. If in Ireland they say 0 deaths today, in reality there could have been 5 deaths today. The 0 deaths are notified today. When they say 10 deaths today, some of those people would have died in November.

Tony, the main stat I'm interested in is deaths per million as this is the main one that counts and the most reliable long term one. Yesterday Bulgaria was the latest country to jump ahead of Sweden, pushing them down to 25th on the list. Romania posted 213 deaths today for a population twice that of Sweden. They will go ahead of Sweden next weekend. Switzerland and Hungary will pass them next week.

Sweden will end up 30th on deaths per million. Ireland probably about 45th.

Frank, forgive me for not giving a damn about your projections, but like you've just shown that you don't understand the data.

I'm not really interested in "keeping track of this for the next few weeks" either. I know for certain that I'm right. It's not something I've figured out. It's just objective fact.
By all means keep a track of it yourself. In fact I'd welcome that.

Here's something I've found that might help you understand it further. I can't speak to the projection, but it looks about right to the eye.
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/?fbclid=IwAR0fZ85afpw74BosBjRQ-I7iAv1PzbUcAe9WGpVCzQMkSKsOWw_IQIdJe-o

Ginger n Lemon

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Frank, forgive me for not giving a damn about your projections, but like you've just shown that you don't understand the data.

I'm not really interested in "keeping track of this for the next few weeks" either. I know for certain that I'm right. It's not something I've figured out. It's just objective fact.
By all means keep a track of it yourself. In fact I'd welcome that.

Here's something I've found that might help you understand it further. I can't speak to the projection, but it looks about right to the eye.
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/?fbclid=IwAR0fZ85afpw74BosBjRQ-I7iAv1PzbUcAe9WGpVCzQMkSKsOWw_IQIdJe-o

Solid.

tobefrank321

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Frank, forgive me for not giving a damn about your projections, but like you've just shown that you don't understand the data.

I'm not really interested in "keeping track of this for the next few weeks" either. I know for certain that I'm right. It's not something I've figured out. It's just objective fact.
By all means keep a track of it yourself. In fact I'd welcome that.

Here's something I've found that might help you understand it further. I can't speak to the projection, but it looks about right to the eye.
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/?fbclid=IwAR0fZ85afpw74BosBjRQ-I7iAv1PzbUcAe9WGpVCzQMkSKsOWw_IQIdJe-o

You're certain you're right. Earlier you said probably. Now you say you don't want to follow it. Doesn't sound like you are sure.

As for understanding the data, ICU numbers are a strong indicator of where infections are going. There is no significant lag with ICU. No-one is going to come along in two weeks time and start adding on ICU admissions for a particular day. ICU numbers are declining steadily.

You've made the assertion deaths are still rising since November 24th. But its clear you have no proof of that, just a belief.

Lets see where it goes.

Like I said, only one stat will count at the end, deaths per million. I've been right so far on those projections.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You're certain you're right. Earlier you said probably. Now you say you don't want to follow it. Doesn't sound like you are sure.

As for understanding the data, ICU numbers are a strong indicator of where infections are going. They lag by no more than a couple of days. ICU numbers are declining steadily.

You've made the assertion deaths are still rising since November 24th. But its clear you have no proof of that, just a belief.

Lets see where it goes.

Like I said, only one stat will count at the end, deaths per million. I've been right so far on those projections.

Show us the link to the data you are using to say ICU numbers are reducing.

They have nearly 20 times our infection rate.
The are averaging 55 deaths per day over the last 7 days and this data is not up to date.
They have nearly 10 times as many people in ICU for Covid as we have and finally by Christmas they will be close to 4 times our death rate.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Show us the link to the data you are using to say ICU numbers are reducing.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Middle graph.

And from here:
https://www.thelocal.se/20200902/coronavirus-the-latest-news-about-the-outbreak-in-sweden-timeline-part-two

December 4th-8th - 75 people admitted to ICU or about 19 a day.

Nov 27th-Dec 1st - 94 admitted to ICU or about 24 per day.

So 19 fewer admissions this weekend than the previous one.

As for case numbers, they have stabilized in terms of reproduction number. From mid Oct to mid November, they had a R0 of about 1.5. It now appears to be down to about 1.1. The curve has been flattened.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Middle graph.

And from here:
https://www.thelocal.se/20200902/coronavirus-the-latest-news-about-the-outbreak-in-sweden-timeline-part-two

December 4th-8th - 75 people admitted to ICU or about 19 a day.

Nov 27th-Dec 1st - 94 admitted to ICU or about 24 per day.

So 19 fewer admissions this weekend than the previous one.

As for case numbers, they have stabilized in terms of reproduction number. From mid Oct to mid November, they had a R0 of about 1.5. It now appears to be down to about 1.1. The curve has been flattened.

The December 4th to 8th is not up to date Frank.
You can expect to know by the end of the week how many actually were admitted to ICU.
Do you know that the 75 number you have put up is still increasing the number of patients in ICU unless there are higher numbers than the 19 figure you give leaving ICU each day.
You have an awful habit of interpreting data through a singular point of view, your very own point of view!!!
I am sure you can provide us with the data that show 75 people left ICU over the dates you stipulated to show ICU cases are declining.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

The December 4th to 8th is not up to date Frank.

Source for that?

I've no problem admitting if sources are wrong, provided a correct source is provided.

greyday

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

You might show me the number of people leaving ICU over the days you stipulated please, I can't locate it.

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Source for that?

I've no problem admitting if sources are wrong, provided a correct source is provided.

That's the most amusing thing I've read all day. You have no problem admitting sources are wrong? Give over, you never admit being wrong.


From: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

There is some delay in reporting and supplementing information on new cases and deaths, so the number of recent days (especially during public holidays) should be interpreted with caution.

This includes ICU admissions, especially as they require a confirmed PCR test to list a probable covid ICU patient as an actual covid ICU patient.

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Solid.

Talk about irony.


The user you're mockingly responding to is comparing Frank's approach of "I DON'T UNDERSTAND STATISTICS BUT HERE ARE MY PROJECTIONS" and "YOU CAN'T COMPARE SWEDEN TO COUNTRIES THAT MAKE IT LOOK BAD" or "YOU CAN'T LOOK AT OBJECTIVE DATA, YOU HAVE TO INTERPRET IT THROUGH A LENS OF DEMONSTRATED IGNORANCE FIRST", with their approach of simply looking at hard data and going off that.


That point sailed way over your head, which is disappointing.


Solid indeed.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Infections have levelled off and deaths are not much different to last weekend.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Now if you want a real example of infections and deaths increasing consistently, have a look at this.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/hungary/

As for your last point, we will be back up over 1000 infections a day within weeks. That's what happens when you open up after locking down, particularly if you are unable to close borders as we aren't or stop people going about their daily business.

Worldometers gave up on Sweden`s figures months ago when the backdating of deaths to prior days weeks or even months became farcical.
You have only to look at the link you provided to see that.
Deaths reported on Friday 16, then nothing until today where it is 26.

If you do have faith in Worldmeters then I assume you also believe their projection of 20,108 Covid-19 deaths for Sweden by 1st.April 2021.

TonyMaloney

Frank & Ginger,

here's today's deaths from worldometers. 65 deaths on the 24th of Nov.




and here's the same chart but from the 26th of Nov. Notice anything unusual?



Source

How you two spend so much time around this topic without ever understanding some of the basics is somewhat disappointing, lads.

greyday

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWE

Useful site for comparing against other Countries.

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

Worldometers gave up on Sweden`s figures months ago when the backdating of deaths to prior days weeks or even months became farcical.
You have only to look at the link you provided to see that.
Deaths reported on Friday 16, then nothing until today where it is 26.

If you do have faith in Worldmeters then I assume you also believe their projection of 20,108 Covid-19 deaths for Sweden by 1st.April 2021.

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Frank & Ginger,

here's today's deaths from worldometers. 65 deaths on the 24th of Nov.




and here's the same chart but from the 26th of Nov. Notice anything unusual?



Source

How you two spend so much time around this topic without ever understanding some of the basics is somewhat disappointing, lads.

Awkward. Charles says, dont rely on worldmeters.



At least comedy in this thread is strong

greyday

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Awkward. Greyday is not have a great day (pun). Greyday as Charles says, dont rely on worldmeters.



At least comedy in this thread is strong

Your username suits you , there are another couple of Lemons on here too but you look to be the biggest.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Awkward. Charles says, dont rely on worldmeters.



At least comedy in this thread is strong

Lack of observation is even stronger.



It was tobefrank that was quoting Worldometers as a reliable source.
The poster you were replying too was showing how inaccurate their daily stats are.

greyday

charlie14 wrote: »

Lack of observation is even stronger.



It was tobefrank that was quoting Worldometers as a reliable source.
The poster you were replying too was showing how inaccurate their daily stats are.

Don't waste your time on him Charlie, in the face of overwhelming evidence he still comes out with absolute rubbish, he may have been working in a pub previously.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Lack of observation is even stronger.



It was tobefrank that was quoting Worldometers as a reliable source.
The poster you were replying too was showing how inaccurate their daily stats are.

Can't have it both ways. Can ye make up your minds.

As it happens the graphs on worldometer are accurate. And pretty much everything is accurate there. In fairness to Tony he understands how deaths are added better than you to the overall figures.

We can disagree on daily deaths. You can't disagree on total deaths. Worldometer have that one spot on.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Can't have it both ways. Can ye make up your minds.

As it happens the graphs on worldometer are accurate. And pretty much everything is accurate there. In fairness to Tony he understands how deaths are added better than you to the overall figures.

We can disagree on daily deaths. You can't disagree on total deaths. Worldometer have that one spot on.

They only have it correct for the data Swedens gives which has a 10 day lag on deaths as seen with last Wednesday's death figures.

Can you provide the source for your belief that more than 75 people left ICU between Dec 4th and 8th?

tobefrank321

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Talk about irony.


The user you're mockingly responding to is comparing Frank's approach of "I DON'T UNDERSTAND STATISTICS BUT HERE ARE MY PROJECTIONS" and "YOU CAN'T COMPARE SWEDEN TO COUNTRIES THAT MAKE IT LOOK BAD" or "YOU CAN'T LOOK AT OBJECTIVE DATA, YOU HAVE TO INTERPRET IT THROUGH A LENS OF DEMONSTRATED IGNORANCE FIRST", with their approach of simply looking at hard data and going off that.


That point sailed way over your head, which is disappointing.


Solid indeed.

More lies and personal insults from you I see.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

They only have it correct for the data Swedens gives which has a 10 day lag on deaths as seen with last Wednesday's death figures.

Can you provide the source for your belief that more than 75 people left ICU between Dec 4th and 8th?

Where did I say 75 people left ICU?

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Can't have it both ways. Can ye make up your minds.

As it happens the graphs on worldometer are accurate. And pretty much everything is accurate there. In fairness to Tony he understands how deaths are added better than you to the overall figures.

We can disagree on daily deaths. You can't disagree on total deaths. Worldometer have that one spot on.

Neither can you have it both ways. They have the overall deaths correct, but the daily deaths do not add up to the total deaths.
Not their fault in fairness. As I said, it looks as if they they got feed up with the back-dating of deaths months ago.



With their graphs and overall deaths being correct then I take it you are not questioning their projection for 1st April 2021 Covid-19 deaths of over 20,000

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Where did I say 75 people left ICU?

You said ICU numbers were declining consistently and used two weeks of incomplete data to support your assertion, the only way ICU numbers are declining is if there are less admitted to ICU than released, now provide the source which shows ,more than 75 covid patients were released from ICU from December 4th to 8th.

As for understanding the data, ICU numbers are a strong indicator of where infections are going. There is no significant lag with ICU. No-one is going to come along in two weeks time and start adding on ICU admissions for a particular day. ICU numbers are declining steadily.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

You said ICU numbers were declining consistently and used two weeks of incomplete data to support your assertion, the only way ICU numbers are declining is if there are less admitted to ICU than released, now provide the source which shows ,more than 75 covid patients were released from ICU from December 4th to 8th.

As for understanding the data, ICU numbers are a strong indicator of where infections are going. There is no significant lag with ICU. No-one is going to come along in two weeks time and start adding on ICU admissions for a particular day. ICU numbers are declining steadily.

I said 75 people were admitted to ICU for those dates and I provided sources.

94 admitted the previous weekend, 75 the following weekend.

If by ICU numbers you mean admissions I'm happy to clarify that I meant admissions, which is what I was discussing.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I said 75 people were admitted to ICU for those dates and I provided sources.

94 admitted the previous weekend, 75 the following weekend.

If by ICU numbers you mean admissions I'm happy to clarify that I meant admissions, which is what I was discussing.

You have a terrible habit of moving goal posts Frank.