Sweden avoiding lockdown

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

You have a terrible habit of moving goal posts Frank.

Nonsense. I clearly gave you stats and links. You knew well what I meant.

As for moving goalposts, ironic in that you said I was going on ignore days ago.

Stormyteacup

greyday wrote: »

You have a terrible habit of moving goal posts Frank.

I assumed he was talking about ICU admission rate?

What kind of lag would you expect in this data does anyone know, and is it accepted that the lag in deaths updated on Worldometers for Sweden is 10 days?

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nonsense. I clearly gave you stats and links. You knew well what I meant.

As for moving goalposts, ironic in that you said I was going on ignore days ago.

Declining numbers of ICU patients to me means a decline in people receiving ICU care.

Either way Frank, there can be numerous reasons for a drop in ICU admissions, obviously data that is not up to date as you supplied is a reason, another is that Tegnell could tell hospitals not to admit certain types of vulnerable people again.

You seem to be suggesting with your posts that things are improving in Sweden, I don't even think Tegnell would have the neck to suggest any such thing.

Again they have nearly 10 times as many Covid patients in ICU as we have, they will have close to 4 times our death rate by Christmas and have close to 20 times our infection rate, they are averaging 55 deaths per day for the last week with incomplete reporting of death's,if that's what you call a success I would not even want to contemplate what you call a failure.

As for the sources you provided, they actually tell you recent days data is to be treated with caution due to the lag in reporting.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Declining numbers of ICU patients to me means a decline in people receiving ICU care.

Either way Frank, there can be numerous reasons for a drop in ICU admissions, obviously data that is not up to date as you supplied is a reason, another is that Tegnell could tell hospitals not to admit certain types of vulnerable people again.

You seem to be suggesting with your posts that things are improving in Sweden, I don't even think Tegnell would have the neck to suggest any such thing.

Again they have nearly 10 times as many Covid patients in ICU as we have, they will have close to 4 times our death rate by Christmas and have close to 20 times our infection rate, they are averaging 55 deaths per day for the last week with incomplete reporting of death's,if that's what you call a success I would not even want to contemplate what you call a failure.

As for the sources you provided, they actually tell you recent days data is to be treated with caution due to the lag in reporting.

They are in the middle of a second wave. We are in the lull/lockdown between our second and inevitable third wave. Of course their stats are currently worse than ours. In a few weeks time our stats will look bad once again after an inevitable bounceback. Czechia, Slovenia, Hungary, Switzerland and several other countries had great stats in the spring and early summer. Now they look very bad.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They are in the middle of a second wave. We are in the lull/lockdown between our second and inevitable third wave. Of course their stats are currently worse than ours. In a few weeks time our stats will look bad once again after an inevitable bounceback. Czechia, Slovenia, Hungary, Switzerland and several other countries had great stats in the spring and early summer. Now they look very bad.

No Frank, we take the correct acyion at the right time after learning our lessons from the first wave, we are one a very few European Countries to do so.
We will see an inctrease and we will deal with it as efficiently as possible until the vaccine us rolled out, Sweden on the other hand have lòst control and it looks unlikely they will regain it now we see their lockdown is being ignored which is unsurprising.

tobefrank321

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Frank in fairness I did warn you in the past to give up.

You are debating with people who think that 1 covid death of an 85 year old man is a tragedy. In their eyes you cant say Swedish strategy is solid or is long term living etc. unless their covid deaths are 0. Comparing Sweden to any other country other than Norway will not get you anywhere.

Norwegians and Swedes are well they are borderline alien like according to this thread. You want to compare Sweden and Ireland? you mad? outrage. those Swedes have 3 legs and 4 arms and are very obedient of their govt advice, 50% + live alone. yada yada yada

Sweden and Czech republic? nope. Dont compare those 2 either. its like world apart :rolleyes:

I should have listened to you.

I've mentioned the other Scandanavian countries on numerous occassions. I don't think I've read a single post from the other side that mentions the carnage going on in the likes of Czechia, Hungary, Switzerland and now also Portugal, Greece or Austria. At most some rumblings about those other countries imitating Sweden which of course is nonsense.
Its almost like those countries don't exist!

Then you have armchair Charlie telling us Sweden is in lockdown while posters living there post evidence of the opposite.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Then you have armchair Charlie telling us Sweden is in lockdown while posters living there post evidence of the opposite.

19th. October the region of Uppsala was the first to break away from the Public Health Authority recommendations/restrictions and introduce their own.
Johan Nojd infection diseases doctor for the region described it as " It`s more a lockdown situation, but a local lockdown"
Since that date every other region has brought in the same recommendations/restrictions.

Swedish government under the Public Order Act have also introduced a law limiting all public gathering to a maximum of 8 people. Violation of which is punishable by fines or 6 months imprisonment.
Schools for all over 16`s have been closed as have since 20th November swimming pools, museums, art galleries and any other municipal ran venue have been closed in Stockholm and Malmo.

Not that any of the above will make a blind bit of difference to some here. If Sweden had a Wuhan type lockdown some would still not see it as a lockdown.

Btw, you could perhaps consider cutting out the smart-ass armchair Charlie comment. It doesn`t bother me, but it doesn`t do you any credit.

Ficheall

It looks like Sweden, with twice our population, has, in the last month, had as many deaths as we have had cases..

greyday

96 deaths notified, 7k infections.

TonyMaloney

greyday wrote: »

96 deaths notified, 7k infections.

Stokholm ICU at 99% capacity

tobefrank321

Ficheall wrote: »

It looks like Sweden, with twice our population, has, in the last month, had as many deaths as we have had cases..

No it doesn't. Where did you get a stat like that?

greyday

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Stokholm ICU at 99% capacity

Not good at all but to be expected considering the advise on face masks and the strategy of going for herd immunity at the outset, Tegnell told the world that Sweden would not see a second wave as late as October even though all data pointed to Sweden having similar levels of immunity as other Countries which had been hard hit in the first wave, Opened care homes to visitors in October as well while infections were rising, next time you look in the dictionary for the meaning of incompetence you will only see two words "Anders Tegnell".

daithi7

greyday wrote: »

Not good at all but to be expected considering the advise on face masks and the strategy of going for herd immunity at the outset, Tegnell told the world that Sweden would not see a second wave as late as October even though all data pointed to Sweden having similar levels of immunity as other Countries which had been hard hit in the first wave, Opened care homes to visitors in October as well while infections were rising, next time you look in the dictionary for the meaning of incompetence you will only see two words "Anders Tegnell".

Yes they do appear to have got it quite wrong, and worse when there was evidence of this they haven't reacted appropriately e.g. since October.

However, bear in mind that ' the book' has yet to be written on who handled covid best, well or badly, because actually no one yet knows for definite.

E.g. Ireland have had ~2000 deaths from Covid, but we've also had(or will eventually have) ~2000 extra deaths from undetected or untreated cancers due to Covid restrictions to date. (According to leading HSE Cancer consultants) Then add the extra deaths due to mental health issues, domestic abuse, substance abuse, economic hardship, etc, etc caused by Covid restrictions, and you're getting close to a fuller picture of the relative damage to society as a whole.

This all needs to be assessed objectively & thoroughly with all the relevant data avaiable. E.g. relative QALYs, etc. This is simply not available at the moment, so it is only possible to make summary guesstimate judgements, which may or may not be correct.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

Not good at all but to be expected considering the advise on face masks and the strategy of going for herd immunity at the outset, Tegnell told the world that Sweden would not see a second wave as late as October even though all data pointed to Sweden having similar levels of immunity as other Countries which had been hard hit in the first wave, Opened care homes to visitors in October as well while infections were rising, next time you look in the dictionary for the meaning of incompetence you will only see two words "Anders Tegnell".

Care to mention the 30 or so countries where hard lockdowns have been a proven failure?

Or is it only the lockdown success stories that are allowed to be discussed? And the failures ignored?

We can discuss any country you want - Czechia, Slovenia, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland...

Czechia for example have recorded more deaths in the last 9 weeks than Sweden recorded in 9 months. You think their hard lockdown worked?

Sweden are mid table and will be mid table by the end. Unlike a large number of hard lockdown countries who will come out worst in the world at containing deaths.

greyday

daithi7 wrote: »

Yes they do appear to have got it quite wrong, and worse when there was evidence of this they haven't reacted appropriately e.g. since October.

However, bear in mind that ' the book' has yet to be written on who handled covid best, well or badly, because actually no one yet knows for definite.

E.g. Ireland have had ~2000 deaths from Covid, but we've also had(or will eventually have) ~2000 extra deaths from undetected or untreated cancers due to Covid restrictions. (According to leading HSE Cancer consultants) Then add the extra deaths due to Covid restrictions caused/exacerbated mental health issues, domestic abuse, substance abuse, economic hardship, etc, etc and you're getting close to a fuller picture of relative damage to society as a whole.

This all needs to be assessed objectively & thoroughly with all the relevant data avaiable. This is simply not available at the moment, so it is only possible to make a summary guesstimate judgement, which may or may not be correct.

Agreed but there have been many people who saw positive impacts on their lives also, when we see excess deaths we may be surprised to see we have saved far more people not just from covid but other infectious diseases they may have succumbed to without the change in behaviours we have seen from the majority of people, even with an effective vaccine available we may see less deaths in future years if this behavioural change within the population remains.

Ginger n Lemon

daithi7 wrote: »

Yes they do appear to have got it quite wrong, and worse when there was evidence of this they haven't reacted appropriately e.g. since October.

However, bear in mind that ' the book' has yet to be written on who handled covid best, well or badly, because actually no one yet knows for definite.

E.g. Ireland have had ~2000 deaths from Covid, but we've also had(or will eventually have) ~2000 extra deaths from undetected or untreated cancers due to Covid restrictions to date. (According to leading HSE Cancer consultants) Then add the extra deaths due to mental health issues, domestic abuse, substance abuse, economic hardship, etc, etc caused by Covid restrictions, and you're getting close to a fuller picture of the relative damage to society as a whole.

This all needs to be assessed objectively & thoroughly with all the relevant data avaiable. This is simply not available at the moment, so it is only possible to make a summary guesstimate judgements, which may or may not be correct.

Unfortunately you are right.

A GP and coroner in Co Donegal has said there is “a terrible problem” of suicide among young people in Ireland.

Dr Denis McCauley, who is chair of the Irish Medical Organisation’s GP committee, said he has seen an increase in female suicides this year.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/gp-describes-terrible-problem-of-suicide-among-young-people-1.4426625

Issue is these are quite unpopular topics. But its quite delusional to think these consequences of our hard lockdown are not occurring/arent there.


Judging Swedish strategy based on number of covid deaths today or yesterday or over last 9 months is as useful as saying "Arsenal are gonna win the league" after Arsenal beat Burnley...

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Care to mention the 30 or so countries where hard lockdowns have been a proven failure?

Or is it only the lockdown success stories that are allowed to be discussed? And the failures ignored?

We can discuss any country you want - Czechia, Slovenia, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland...

Czechia for example have recorded more deaths in the last 9 weeks than Sweden record in 9 months. You think their hard lockdown worked?

Sweden are mid table and will be mid table by the end. Unlike a large number of hard lockdown countries who will come out worst in the world at containing deaths.

Opening up too soon is as good as doing a Sweden and not having any lockdown, it has the same effect as closing down too late, The countries you like to compare did one or the other, Sweden will not be mid table by the end of the year, their death rate is catching up fast even with incomplete data.
Czechia did very well with its first lockdown bringing the virus under control relatively quickly, unfortunately it was far too late with its second lockdown which you well know Frank. The second lockdown started October 22nd on which day they had over 14K infections.
Slovenia were over 2K infections daily by the time of their second lockdown which as again late October, confirmed cases I might add with the true number of infections possibly multiples of that.
We could go on.........if they acted earlier they would have controlled it faster, much like we did.

Gael23

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/we-need-help-says-stockholm-health-chief-as-covid-fills-intensive-care-wards-1048739.html?fbclid=IwAR0XIMs7tWEJfBBiX6GMzkiXW004OPZrelEdeCjx_7oSybJIuZ9vnsy8UMo

greyday

Gael23 wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/we-need-help-says-stockholm-health-chief-as-covid-fills-intensive-care-wards-1048739.html?fbclid=IwAR0XIMs7tWEJfBBiX6GMzkiXW004OPZrelEdeCjx_7oSybJIuZ9vnsy8UMo

But when you compare Sweden to all those Countries that shut down too late when their infection rates had already got out of control, they seem to be doing grand as Frank would say.

Sweden have only 7300 deaths despite the fact they went ages with no lockdowns or heavy restrictions.

For some perspective, 7300 would be the equivalent of Croke Park more than 90% empty. That’s the number of deaths in a country with double our population that didn’t lockdown during what we are told is a deadly pandemic.

Regardless of how anybody feels they done, they have provided us with undeniable proof that lockdowns didn’t prevent some huge number of deaths.

greyday

Deleted User wrote: »

Sweden have only 7300 deaths despite the fact they went ages with no lockdowns or heavy restrictions.

For some perspective, 7300 would be the equivalent of Croke Park more than 90% empty. That’s the number of deaths in a country with double our population that didn’t lockdown during what we are told is a deadly pandemic.

Regardless of how anybody feels they done, they have provided us with undeniable proof that lockdowns didn’t prevent some huge number of deaths.

Lockdowns at the appropriate have given us irrefutable proof that Lockdowns do save lives, just compare us over the last two months to Sweden or any other Country that had no lockdown or locked down too late when infection rates were already out of control.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

Sweden have only 7300 deaths despite the fact they went ages with no lockdowns or heavy restrictions.

For some perspective, 7300 would be the equivalent of Croke Park more than 90% empty. That’s the number of deaths in a country with double our population that didn’t lockdown during what we are told is a deadly pandemic.

Regardless of how anybody feels they done, they have provided us with undeniable proof that lockdowns didn’t prevent some huge number of deaths.

There was 3,500 deaths during The Troubles. When you think of that number in Croke Park terms I suppose it barely even happened. Wow, thanks Jac.

Sweden have had a lot more than 7,300 covid deaths, they just haven't released the data yet.
Their hospitals are at bursting point in some durisctrictions, so I'd hold your horses with figuring out how many of their dead you could fit in a stadium.

kippy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sweden have only 7300 deaths despite the fact they went ages with no lockdowns or heavy restrictions.

For some perspective, 7300 would be the equivalent of Croke Park more than 90% empty. That’s the number of deaths in a country with double our population that didn’t lockdown during what we are told is a deadly pandemic.

Regardless of how anybody feels they done, they have provided us with undeniable proof that lockdowns didn’t prevent some huge number of deaths.

Sweden have had plenty restrictions.....and have had a massive impact on their economy....and have had a lot of deaths.

Ah cmon now lads, you can’t just make stuff up because it suits a narrative.

Saying Sweden are covering up deaths belongs in the conspiracy section unless there is some proof that they actually are.

It’s also widely accepted that they didn’t lockdown or have heavy restrictions. Saying they did is silly.

The actual reality is that Sweden didn’t lockdown and they don’t have a huge death toll like lots of the experts predicted.

That doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done better. But that is not relevant to my point.

The point I made is that Sweden are proof that lockdown doesn’t prevent huge numbers of deaths. It may help to keep the death toll slightly lower though.

kippy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ah cmon now lads, you can’t just make stuff up because it suits a narrative.

Saying Sweden are covering up deaths belongs in the conspiracy section unless there is some proof that they actually are.

It’s also widely accepted that they didn’t lockdown or have heavy restrictions. Saying they did is silly.

The actual reality is that Sweden didn’t lockdown and they don’t have a huge death toll like lots of the experts predicted.

That doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done better. But that is not relevant to my point.

The point I made is that Sweden are proof that lockdown doesn’t prevent huge numbers of deaths. It may help to keep the death toll slightly lower though.

Sweden had restrictions........
Sweden isn't proof of anything at the minute.

odyssey06

daithi7 wrote: »

Yes they do appear to have got it quite wrong, and worse when there was evidence of this they haven't reacted appropriately e.g. since October.

However, bear in mind that ' the book' has yet to be written on who handled covid best, well or badly, because actually no one yet knows for definite.

E.g. Ireland have had ~2000 deaths from Covid, but we've also had(or will eventually have) ~2000 extra deaths from undetected or untreated cancers due to Covid restrictions to date. (According to leading HSE Cancer consultants) Then add the extra deaths due to mental health issues, domestic abuse, substance abuse, economic hardship, etc, etc caused by Covid restrictions, and you're getting close to a fuller picture of the relative damage to society as a whole.

This all needs to be assessed objectively & thoroughly with all the relevant data avaiable. E.g. relative QALYs, etc. This is simply not available at the moment, so it is only possible to make summary guesstimate judgements, which may or may not be correct.

It's even less clear than that...
It's not clear that screenings e.g. for cancer continued in Sweden as normal - cancer screenings paused in Stockholm in spring.
e.g. https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7467201 & https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7469079

In Ireland, I have read we may have 2000 undetected cases of cancer, that is not necessarily the same thing as 2000 deaths.

On the other side of the equation...
Crimes against the person dropped in Ireland by 50% during the first lockdown.
Deaths from flu may be significantly down this year.
etc etc

How much of the above do you assign to restrictions, and how much to 'the virus'?

TonyMaloney

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ah cmon now lads, you can’t just make stuff up because it suits a narrative.

Saying Sweden are covering up deaths belongs in the conspiracy section unless there is some proof that they actually are.

It's not a conspiracy theory, sweden freely acknowledges that this is how they release their data.

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

Sweden have only 7300 deaths despite the fact they went ages with no lockdowns or heavy restrictions.

For some perspective, 7300 would be the equivalent of Croke Park more than 90% empty. That’s the number of deaths in a country with double our population that didn’t lockdown during what we are told is a deadly pandemic.

Regardless of how anybody feels they done, they have provided us with undeniable proof that lockdowns didn’t prevent some huge number of deaths.

All they have provided us with undeniable proof on is that their acquired herd immunity strategy was not only a complete failure, it was also immoral to attempt it



Whatever their view was on lockdown in the past, with the belated realization that not only did herd immunity not work, contrary to yet another of Tegnell`s predictions, it did not even manage to give any notable levels of immunity for this second wave.
They are now using lockdown like everyone else.

charlie14

charlie14 wrote: »

All they have provided us with undeniable proof on is that their acquired herd immunity strategy was not only a complete failure, it was also immoral to attempt it



Whatever their view was on lockdown in the past, with the belated realization that not only did herd immunity not work, contrary to yet another of Tegnell`s predictions, it did not even manage to give any notable levels of immunity for this second wave.
They are now using lockdown like everyone else.

Wrong.

Without Sweden, many people might believe that lockdown prevented 100K deaths in Ireland and millions of deaths around the world.

It didn’t, and we have Swedes to thank for providing the proof.

You can criticise them all day long if you want and I couldn’t care less. That’s not my point.

pjohnson

charlie14 wrote: »

All they have provided us with undeniable proof on is that their acquired herd immunity strategy was not only a complete failure, it was also immoral to attempt it



Whatever their view was on lockdown in the past, with the belated realization that not only did herd immunity not work, contrary to yet another of Tegnell`s predictions, it did not even manage to give any notable levels of immunity for this second wave.
They are now using lockdown like everyone else.

The fetish that remains over how great Sweden did is bizarre. The Swedes themselves realised they got it wrong but not the fanboys.