Sweden avoiding lockdown

IAMAMORON

Joe_ Public wrote: »

In relation to testing South Korea is often referred to in glowing terms, so it's interesting that in a chart of 20 countries i saw listed earlier in terms of volume of testing, Korea was only listed as 17th.

So seems to suggest there were other factors involved or it came down not necessarily to volume but to efficiency and contact tracing. Maybe a bit of good old-fashioned luck involved too.

I think South Korea have handled the outbreak a little bit too cosily. Anyone endorsing mass testing keep saying S Korea etc. Given the way this virus rifled through Italy and Spain I am having my doubts about some Asian countries and their figures.

As a caveat to my misgivings it is worth noting that maybe Asia have better contingencies set up to deal with such outbreaks? They were previously badly exposed to Swine Flu and Sars 1 so they may have a more robust reaction to outbreaks.

Either way you look at this the truth or middle ground is where you will find it. I just think S Korea looks to good to be true, all things considered. I mean look at Japan ? They seem to have chewed it up and spat it back out again, have they? When you incorporate their enthusiasm to make sure the Olympics went ahead as scheduled you would need to revisit any results coming from there. I would not be surprised if they have been covering it up either.

ush

biko wrote: »

I wonder at what numbers the Swedish government will think "fcuk, we totally murdered all those people".

But they haven't, have they? Just because you wish to see Sweden fail, doesn't mean it actually will.

Cyrus

sydthebeat wrote: »

"Probably"....

When I see this is a statement it makes what comes afterwards worthless

Does it ? And how would you expect one to be more definitive when make a forward looking prediction ?

Cyrus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Emergency workers in New York described their peak as a daily 911 in terms of what they were dealing with. So definitely not an ordinary amount of deaths.

I don’t think you read what I posted correctly

jibber5000

Cyrus wrote: »

Does it ? And how would you expect one to be more definitive when make a forward looking prediction ?

Probably is actually the only word to use in this case.
Epidemiology, public health and medical treatment options should all be prefaced with the word "probably" as no one actually knows for sure

MadYaker

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think South Korea have handled the outbreak a little bit too cosily. Anyone endorsing mass testing keep saying S Korea etc. Given the way this virus rifled through Italy and Spain I am having my doubts about some Asian countries and their figures.

As a caveat to my misgivings it is worth noting that maybe Asia have better contingencies set up to deal with such outbreaks? They were previously badly exposed to Swine Flu and Sars 1 so they may have a more robust reaction to outbreaks.

Either way you look at this the truth or middle ground is where you will find it. I just think S Korea looks to good to be true, all things considered. I mean look at Japan ? They seem to have chewed it up and spat it back out again, have they? When you incorporate their enthusiasm to make sure the Olympics went ahead as scheduled you would need to revisit any results coming from there. I would not be surprised if they have been covering it up either.

Do more digging and you'll see SK have been open with numbers and with the results of the research they are doing. SK and Taiwan are pretty much the only countries that have taken this seriously from the beggining and actually have the infrastructure in place for testing and contact tracing. They did this after H1N1 because they're smart. I see no reason to doubt their figures or Taiwan's. They followed the WHO pandemic plan to the letter and its working. Japan have been in denial for some time now (see their reluctance to postpone the olympics) and it looks like they are now going to pay a high price for it, just like Sweden and Brazil and all the other countries who are doing nothing.

4068ac1elhodqr

The notion of herd immunity (perhaps relative to the Swed & uk approach) is still somewhat unproven.

WHO unsure antibodies protect against COVID, with little sign of herd immunity
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-immunity/who-unsure-antibodies-protect-against-covid-little-sign-of-herd-immunity-idUSKBN21Z2XM

“A lot of preliminary information coming to us right now would suggest quite a low percentage of population have seroconverted (to produce antibodies),” he said.

(Ryan).

At the very start the suggestion was that it might only be for 10-14days anyway.
With another Prof chap from ICL suggesting x10waves (Africa yet to have any sort of peak), perhaps other dramatic approaches are needed as long-term soloutions (Ideal for Sweden, with it's unique social experimental approaches to things):

i). Full ban on all/any smoking (lung function imparment), including immediate stop of all fag sales. (but free Nico patches offered as replacement).
ii). Forced Intervention upon any real fatty fatties i.e. The very obsese types with BMI levels that are inexcusable. No cheescake for you again, it's bootcamp.
iii). Other programs of exercise, sugar bans, fatty food bans and escilation of pollution enforcements (fuel and transport).

South Korea also had a group of religious schizos going around infecting people on purpose.

MadYaker

The WHO are full of sh!te with regards to immunity. Studies coming out of Netherlands, California and Italy are contradicting them on this one and we can't examine the data they have based that assertion on because as far as I can tell they haven't released it.

4068ac1elhodqr

MadYaker wrote: »

The WHO are full of sh!te ...

Perhaps so, and not for the 1st time have they 'mispoken'.

Time will tell, if Boris (keen on hand shaking) takes ill again, might be a good barometer).

Akrasia

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I thinks testing is only useful if it is widespread and efficient. For example, hypothetically I could easily have been tested 4 weeks ago and then contracted the virus on the bus home from the test centre. In the meantime I get a test result saying I am negative. The testing mantra only works if it is applied robustly and is then followed up by contact tracing. It does not look like either has happened in Ireland yet, initial testing has raised eyebrows nationally.

We are only doing so well because of the lockdown and of course handwashing. Test results don't stop the spread of the virus, they merely inform medics that you have the virus or don't at a specific time.

Too many countries appear to be high fiving and back slapping themselves over their testing, I am not sure how beneficial it is as yet. As a sufferer you will know all about it if you cannot breath and are in an Ambulance, testing positive at that point will be the last of your worries.

The tests do reduce the spread. Anyone who is either awaiting a test or a test result is under enormous social pressure to isolate themselves. If they test positive, they then they, and their household are under enormous pressure to isolate themselves until they get the all clear

The hundred thousand people or whatever, who were referred for tests in the early days were all told to stay at home until the test was carried out. Even if they never eventually got the test, the fact that they were still suspected cases and told to isolate themselves, they would have reduced the spread of the virus

People are taking the social distancing relatively seriously when there is a vague risk that the virus is 'out there'
If you know your co-worker has tested positive or your neighbour, or relative has tested positive, it focuses the mind and gets people to take fewer chances with themselves and their own family.

And then there are the asymptomatic carriers which can amount to 50-80% of the population who could be working in your local shop, stacking shelves and sneezing over your jar of instant coffee... Contact tracing testing could identify these people earler and reduce the number of people they come into contact with before their body eliminates the virus

Del Griffith

Deleted User wrote: »

Emergency workers in New York described their peak as a daily 911 in terms of what they were dealing with. So definitely not an ordinary amount of deaths.

There is no immunity whatsoever so obviously it will spread like wildfire. There is also no vaccine. Hospitals are overflowing because the virus is so contagious that it has crammed the equivalent of a year’s worth of flu cases into just a few weeks.

MadYaker wrote: »

Some regions in the UK have seen a 30% increase in deaths in march 2020 compared to march 2019 so I think what you're saying is clearly nonsense. Of course deaths will increase because of this, how could they not?

COVID19 only breached the mortality rate of the 2016/17 flu season for Italy and Spain in its 14th week (likely/hopefully the peak).

Link: https://www.euromomo.eu/

Att vara en hest

sydthebeat wrote: »

Last Saturday they reported 17 deaths.
111 today.

Last Wednesday they reported 170...

And attempt to suggest what next Wednesdays numbers will be?

Last Friday and Monday were both bank holidays in Sweden, which affected the reporting.

A lot of fear mongering here.. It's been what, 2.5 months since Sweden's first case? And despite no strict lockdown they have still not had the healthcare system overrun.. Considering an incubation period of 2 weeks, if their method is as bad as some people here seem to think they would have been absolutely screwed by now - but they're not? The mainly affected area (Stockholm) reported their highest numbers around the 8-10th of April and now heading down, also keep in mind that almost 50% of deaths in Stockholm occurred in elderly nursing homes.

I see c19 link posted a lot, but it's not a good source as they keep on adding numbers without considering when death actually occured... Instead look at:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

This updates once per day but actually assigns deaths to WHEN they occurred, it's obvious numbers spiked around the 8th of April and are now going down. See chart "Avlidna/dag".

This dashboard is directly from the department of public health, link is from here:
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/

They also provide the RAW DATA in excel format:
https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/data



Peak in ALL of Sweden was on the 8th of April with 101 deaths.


Note that due to the lagging behind of death reports in Sweden the drop over the most recent 2-4 days will always be quite significant and not representative of real numbers.. They later get adjusted.

MadYaker

Del Griffith wrote: »

There is no immunity whatsoever so obviously it will spread like wildfire. There is also no vaccine. Hospitals are overflowing because the virus is so contagious that it has crammed the equivalent of a year’s worth of flu cases into just a few weeks.



COVID19 only breached the mortality rate of the 2016/17 flu season for Italy and Spain in its 14th week (likely/hopefully the peak).

Link: https://www.euromomo.eu/

The jury is still out on immunity but its looking like the vast majority are immune. Also, groups from around 60 different countries are currently working on a vaccine. In fact Oxford University say they'll have by the Autumn but I don't believe that. You need to get your info from somewhere else. Or are you trolling?

Breezin

As has been observed, there are stats that can be cherry-picked and social media-mangled to suit either view on this debate. But this US study strongly favours the Swedish approach, because it has found a vastly higher level of infection, implying a much lover mortality rate, and also pointing toward collective immunity. (It was mentioned a few posts, or pages back, but is buried in the fray and I can't find it. Re-edit: now I've found it, in a different thread.)

The study has been interpreted by some to mean we are closer to herd immunity – the concept that if enough people in a population have developed antibodies to a disease that population becomes immune – than expected. This would allow some to more quickly get back to work, a strategy currently being deployed in Sweden. But researchers behind the study said not to jump to conclusions or make policy choices until more research has been done.

If we shouldn't jump to conclusions, we should at least be questioning the logic driving the extreme severity of the Irish lockdown, with all of its consequences.

biko

biko wrote:

I wonder at what numbers the Swedish government will think "fcuk, we totally murdered all those people".

ush wrote: »

But they haven't, have they? Just because you wish to see Sweden fail, doesn't mean it actually will.

I wonder at what numbers you will think "fcuk, the Swedish government totally murdered all those people".

biko

Stats here from 7 April

Denmark
Tested: 52 666
Infected: 5 071
Dead: 203
Population: 5,8 million

Finland
Tested: 34 900
Infected: 2 308
Dead: 34
Population: 5,5 million

Norge
Tested: 113 896
Infected: 5 863
Dead: 69
Population: 5,4 million

Iceland
Tested: 28 992
Infected: 1 586
Dead: 6
Population: 364 260

Sweden
Tested: 54 700
Infected: 7 693
Dead: 591
Population: 10,2 million

Source: Sundhedsstyrelsen, THS, FHI, Embætti landlæknis, Folkhälsomyndigheten https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/darfor-dor-fler-i-sverige-an-i-vara-grannlander/

Cyrus

MadYaker wrote: »

Some regions in the UK have seen a 30% increase in deaths in march 2020 compared to march 2019 so I think what you're saying is clearly nonsense. Of course deaths will increase because of this, how could they not?

Let’s see

degsie

Cyrus wrote: »

Let’s see

Trump type narcissistic comment...

Kermit.de.frog

Breezin wrote: »

If we shouldn't jump to conclusions, we should at least be questioning the logic driving the extreme severity of the Irish lockdown, with all of its consequences.

The logic is to close off the main drivers of transmission.

Less people infected, less people dead.

Strazdas

Breezin wrote: »

As has been observed, there are stats that can be cherry-picked and social media-mangled to suit either view on this debate. But this US study strongly favours the Swedish approach, because it has found a vastly higher level of infection, implying a much lover mortality rate, and also pointing toward collective immunity. (It was mentioned a few posts, or pages back, but is buried in the fray and I can't find it. Re-edit: now I've found it, in a different thread.)



If we shouldn't jump to conclusions, we should at least be questioning the logic driving the extreme severity of the Irish lockdown, with all of its consequences.

Problem is that herd immunity and Covid-19 is only a theory. It's an extraordinary gamble to go down the route of "Let's give this theory a go and see what happens" as the Swedes are doing.

breadmonster

osarusan wrote: »

Ireland, for example, has clearly prioritised keeping as many people alive as possible, and the economy will suffer in proportion.

I think the economy will be better off also the way we did it instead of dragging it out for how knows long, people will feel safer going back to work and the countries who recover quicker should in theory do better. We'll all be back in our offices by the middle of may so make use of this time and enjoy it :pac:

biko

Sweden isn't doing too bad compared to other European countries as regards to deaths per million.
Places like Belgium are hit the hardest and I hope they/we all pull through.

thebaz

biko wrote: »

Sweden isn't doing too bad compared to other European countries as regards to deaths per million.
Places like Belgium are hit the hardest and I hope they/we all pull through.

Im confused, here you are saying Sweden are doing ok, and a couple of post up you are accusing ther Government of murder ?

Cyrus

degsie wrote: »

Trump type narcissistic comment...

Are you feeling ok ?

Kermit.de.frog

...

dubrov

MadYaker wrote: »

Some regions in the UK have seen a 30% increase in deaths in march 2020 compared to march 2019 so I think what you're saying is clearly nonsense. Of course deaths will increase because of this, how could they not?

What's your source for a 30% increase?

The only official source I can find on Google is this webpage which appears to suggest no major change (up to March 20th anyway).

IAMAMORON

dubrov wrote: »

What's your source for a 30% increase?

The only official source I can find on Google is this webpage which appears to suggest no major change (up to March 20th anyway).

Given that the virus was in its infancy in the UK on the 20th March this is hardly surprising.

There will be a stark increase in deaths in the UK, give it a month to start throwing stats around. Very unusual to have ICU's at full capacity in mid April also.

This virus is a killer have no doubt, it is also not the Flu.

Del Griffith

MadYaker wrote: »

The jury is still out on immunity but its looking like the vast majority are immune. Also, groups from around 60 different countries are currently working on a vaccine. In fact Oxford University say they'll have by the Autumn but I don't believe that. You need to get your info from somewhere else. Or are you trolling?

LOL, are you for real, I think you've confused immune with asymptomatic.

Groups are working on vaccines you say, stop the presses! So we are in agreement then, there is currently no vaccine.

Cyrus

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Given that the virus was in its infancy in the UK on the 20th March this is hardly surprising.

There will be a stark increase in deaths in the UK, give it a month to start throwing stats around. Very unusual to have ICU's at full capacity in mid April also.

This virus is a killer have no doubt, it is also not the Flu.

It’s also true that it’s killing a large portion of people who will have died this year anyway. So it will be interesting to see the full year 2020 numbers versus other years when we have them