Sweden avoiding lockdown

Bit cynical

JimmyVik wrote: »

But I feel the goal posts are being moved in the thread again.
All those people dead and dying now in Sweden. Would they all be dead now if Sweden had followed most of Europe in how they dealt with the virus?

Well deaths overall for the year don't seem to be too different from other years in Sweden. This suggests that the answer to your question is that most of them would still be dead though perhaps from other causes.

JimmyVik

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well deaths overall for the year don't seem to be too different from other years in Sweden. This suggests that the answer to your question is that most of them would still be dead though perhaps from other causes.

Oh, So noone died of covid then?

daithi7

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have a close relative who was diagnosed with cancer last April. Treatment started in April and is ongoing.

I have another friend who was diagnosed with prostate cancer in May. He had an operation shortly after and has been in treatment since.

Cancer treatment and detection was ongoing during lockdown.
>?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cancer-screenings-down-60-on-same-period-in-2019-1.4348775

Cancer screenings down 60% on same period in 2019
BreastCheck, BowelScreen and CervicalCheck shut down due to impact of coronavirus

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/gp-referrals-for-patients-with-suspected-cancers-drop-by-50-1.4247217

GP referrals for patients with suspected cancers drop by 50%...

Bit cynical

JimmyVik wrote: »

Oh, So noone died of covid then?

I did not say that.

JimmyVik

daithi7 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cancer-screenings-down-60-on-same-period-in-2019-1.4348775

Cancer screenings down 60% on same period in 2019
BreastCheck, BowelScreen and CervicalCheck shut down due to impact of coronavirus

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/gp-referrals-for-patients-with-suspected-cancers-drop-by-50-1.4247217

GP referrals for patients with suspected cancers drop by 50%...

All I can tell you is the two cases I know of personally who were detected and needed treatment are being treated.

I cant tell you what the criteria are for screening during a pandemic is. But people are getting screened.

Let me ask a question here.
Does anybody here wish we had the same covid numbers as Sweden?
Because if we followed the same strategy thats what we would have.

odyssey06

daithi7 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cancer-screenings-down-60-on-same-period-in-2019-1.4348775
Cancer screenings down 60% on same period in 2019
BreastCheck, BowelScreen and CervicalCheck shut down due to impact of coronavirus
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/gp-referrals-for-patients-with-suspected-cancers-drop-by-50-1.4247217
GP referrals for patients with suspected cancers drop by 50%...

If anyone has the comparable figures for Sweden, please bump here.

Because their referrals were down to, and cancer screening paused in Spring.
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7469079

daithi7

JimmyVik wrote: »

....
Let me ask a question here.
Does anybody here wish we had the same covid numbers as Sweden?
Because if we followed the same strategy thats what we would have.

So we've established that screenings (& many treatments) in Ireland were halted and that leading consultants in hse have estimated 2000+ cancers have been undiagnosed or not treated since covid restrictions came into place. Good that's progress anyway.

Now onto your question above:

The intelligent answer is yes , someone in Ireland should wish we had run our restrictions to allow for the same number of covid cases per head as Sweden, IF, and this is the big IF, if other deaths and health outcomes would have been proportionally better throughout the population as a result.

Nobody yet knows the answer to this huge question....

In the meantime, your simplistic rhetorical questions are nothing but selective cherry picking looking at one health condition from the whole spectrum of potentially deadly diseases that need treating every day. They're also short sighted & pretty ignorant imho.

JimmyVik

daithi7 wrote: »

So we've established that screenings (& many treatments) in Ireland were halted and that leading consultants in hse have estimated 2000+ cancers have been undiagnosed or not treated since covid restrictions came into place. Good that's progress anyway.

Now onto your question above:

The intelligent answer is yes , someone in Ireland should wish we had run our restrictions to allow for the same number of covid cases per head as Sweden, IF, and this is the big IF, if other deaths and health outcomes would have been proportionally better throughout the population as a result.

Nobody yet knows the answer to this huge question....

In the meantime, your simplistic rhetorical questions are nothing but selective cherry picking looking at one health condition from the whole spectrum of potentially deadly diseases that need treating every day. They're also short sighted & pretty ignorant imho.

So how many people died of covid? You know the answer to that.



and how many died of other diseases that they would not have, had there been no covid? You dont know the answer to that.


You play the safe option. Sweden simply didnt. It has cost them lives, lots of lives. And that is a fact.

daithi7

JimmyVik wrote: »

....
You play the safe option. Sweden simply didnt. It has cost them lives, lots of lives. And that is a fact.

Look, you simply don't know the difference between merely your own personal opinion and a fact.

No matter how often this is written down for you, the answer is NOBODY YET KNOWS!!!

Capiche!?

JimmyVik

daithi7 wrote: »

Look, you simply don't know the difference between merely your own personal opinion and a fact.

No matter how often this is written down for you, the answer is NOBODY YET KNOWS!!!

Capiche!?

Charming post.

Look, You get numbers of the deaths reported every day.
Its not that hard to look them up.

Sweden have far too many deaths. This we know for a fact.
You can throw links about reports and studies and estimates, future death guesses etc all over the place, but it undeniable Sweden could have and should have had less deaths from this pandemic if they handled this properly.

JimmyVik

Deleted User wrote: »

We are discussing the fact that they didn’t lockdown and still have only 7000 deaths.

It’s a bit strange considering the experts were predicting bodies would be piling up on the streets without lockdown.

Now some are saying they don’t have lots of deaths because they locked down... when they didn’t.

And some are saying they have loads of deaths because they didn’t lock down, which they don’t.

No thats just where todays goal posts have moved to.
Good point by that poster though.
Even Sweden have declared on this. The argument is over.

tobefrank321

greyday wrote: »

You know well Frank that those Countries took the hard lockdown route when their infection numbers were already out of control.

The reason for lifting lockdown too early or imposing it too late for a second wave is directly related to lockdown fatigue. Remember the reluctance here to go to Level 5.

I'd prefer long running restrictions that do not cause fatigue. What those restrictions are I don't know exactly. Probably enough that people's mental health isn't affected or that they don't feel trapped at home. In the UK and NI they have started allowing crowds at football matches which seems risky especially when you look at NI deaths and cases.

If you look at us in the south, allowing gaa club championship resume was risky as you'd inevitably have crowds and celebrations at games.
We aren't the same type of pub goer as in Sweden - there I'd imagine its a couple of drinks with table service and people keep in their own group. The Swedes among us might be able to advice on swedish pub culture. I think we can all agree the Irish are a more sociable society than the Swedes, not that there's anything wrong with that. Apparantly the Swedes hate small talk (I don't like it much myself) whereas in Ireland a lot of people live for small talk.

JimmyVik

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The reason for lifting lockdown too early or imposing it too late for a second wave is directly related to lockdown fatigue. Remember the reluctance here to go to Level 5.

I'd prefer long running restrictions that do not cause fatigue. What those restrictions are I don't know exactly. Probably enough that people's mental health isn't affected or that they don't feel trapped at home. In the UK and NI they have started allowing crowds at football matches which seems risky especially when you look at NI deaths and cases.

If you look at us in the south, allowing gaa club championship resume was risky as you'd inevitably have crowds and celebrations at games.
We aren't the same type of pub goer as in Sweden - there I'd imagine its a couple of drinks with table service and people keep in their own group. The Swedes among us might be able to advice on swedish pub culture. I think we can all agree the Irish are a more sociable society than the Swedes, not that there's anything wrong with that. Apparantly the Swedes hate small talk (I don't like it much myself) whereas in Ireland a lot of people live for small talk.

Youve obviously never been out for a night in Sweden

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Sweden when compared to Ireland on GDP and unemployment have fared no better, and their consumer spending when Denmark were in lockdown was not much better.



Sweden have 7,296 deaths, Ireland 2,097.
Sweden`s deaths are not twice our deaths. They are over three and a half times our deaths.
Per capita they have 75% more deaths than Ireland

Charlie, you know as well as anyone that something like 92% of covid deaths are in the over 65 category and we're damn lucky to have one of the lowest proportion of over 65s in Europe here.

We're very much mid table ourselves and will only be about 10 places behind the Swedes in deaths per million when this is all over. The Swedes will be a lot closer to us than they will be the worst countries.

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

Youve obviously never been out for a night in Sweden

That's why I asked. If I had I wouldn't ask.

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

So how many people died of covid? You know the answer to that.



and how many died of other diseases that they would not have, had there been no covid? You dont know the answer to that.


You play the safe option. Sweden simply didnt. It has cost them lives, lots of lives. And that is a fact.

For perspective, they only have 7000 deaths in a country of 10M. That’s less than 0.1% of their population.

Even with a harsh lockdown, they would have had a few thousand deaths anyways.

I also happen to know lots of Swedes personally. They are in a much better place socially than we are.

In Ireland, most of my elderly relatives are so afraid that we are doing damage to their own health.

zerosugarbuzz

tobefrank321 wrote: »

That's why I asked. If I had I wouldn't ask.

Might help you out

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=j-yhseMfjFE

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Charlie, you know as well as anyone that something like 92% of covid deaths are in the over 65 category and we're damn lucky to have one of the lowest proportion of over 65s in Europe here.

We're very much mid table ourselves and will only be about 10 places behind the Swedes in deaths per million when this is all over. The Swedes will be a lot closer to us than they will be the worst countries.

Frank ,we also know that there is no difference between Sweden and the other Nordic countries in the percentage of their populations aged 65 and over, yet Sweden`s deaths per capita are 7 times greater than the other 3 combined.

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

So how many people died of covid? You know the answer to that.



and how many died of other diseases that they would not have, had there been no covid? You dont know the answer to that.


You play the safe option. Sweden simply didnt. It has cost them lives, lots of lives. And that is a fact.

How many people would have died of covid if Sweden went for a hard lockdown in Spring, then opened up and due to lockdown fatigue as happened in practically every other country delayed lockdown again?

Do you know the answer to that?

And also the cost in mental health, domestic abuse, family break ups, etc etc?

For me one of the classic examples of lockdown fatique is in the US. Many states locked down hard, but could only sustain it for a couple of weeks, then opened up almost completely, voving not to lockdown again. That lockdown turned many americans off lockdown. Yesterday over 3000 died in one day, a new record.

Lockdowns are great, but they just aren't sustainable and in the example of the US did more harm than good. The US also allows crowds at sports events. They also had a massive superspreader event in South Dakota where motorcyclists met, essentially to give two fingers to lockdowns.

JimmyVik

Deleted User wrote: »

For perspective, they only have 7000 deaths in a country of 10M. That’s less than 0.1% of their population.

Even with a harsh lockdown, they would have had a few thousand deaths anyways.

I also happen to know lots of Swedes personally. They are in a much better place socially than we are.

In Ireland, most of my elderly relatives are so afraid that we are doing damage to their own health.

And counting ... at a high rate.
Even the Swedes are calling for help now.
Its actually very sad where they have come to.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Frank ,we also know that there is no difference between Sweden and the other Nordic countries in the percentage of their populations aged 65 and over, yet Sweden`s deaths per capita are 7 times greater than the other 3 combined.

There's something like a 3% difference with Norway.

Finland actually has higher elderly and I said that's why I thought Finland's achievements were most impressive in scandanavia.

Ireland's deaths are 4 times higher per capita than the other scandanavian countries combined by the way.

Hardly a great advert for our lockdown!

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

For perspective, they only have 7000 deaths in a country of 10M. That’s less than 0.1% of their population.

Even with a harsh lockdown, they would have had a few thousand deaths anyways.

I also happen to know lots of Swedes personally. They are in a much better place socially than we are.

In Ireland, most of my elderly relatives are so afraid that we are doing damage to their own health.

What`s a few thousand lives anyway.

Due to the Northern Ireland conflict in Ireland between 1969 and 2001 3,532 lives were lost and sure nobody passed a blind bit of notice :rolleyes:

TonyMaloney

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Charlie, you know as well as anyone that something like 92% of covid deaths are in the over 65 category and we're damn lucky to have one of the lowest proportion of over 65s in Europe here.

We're very much mid table ourselves and will only be about 10 places behind the Swedes in deaths per million when this is all over. The Swedes will be a lot closer to us than they will be the worst countries.

Frank, your projections for where Sweden will finish in your favoured 'Deaths per Million' ranking chart are very unsound.

They're currently ranked 25th worst (including micro-states), but because of how Sweden reports deaths versus every other country - that ranking is essentially comparing every other country's death figures per million with Sweden's death stats as of two weeks ago. And it's been a bad fortnight or so in Sweden.
A conservative estimate would be that there's been another 1,000+ deaths as yet unreported.
If they reported in the same manner as every other country then they'd be in around 18th currently.

Added to this is that most of the countries with similar death tolls per million have experienced the peak of their second wave and deaths are on the decline. While in Sweden things are getting very much worse with no end in sight.

So all in all I can conclude with a lot of confidence that your projection is bogus and the opposite is far more likely to be true. Sweden will climb the table by Christmas, while still being more than 14 days out of date.

Please, bookmark this post. Set a reminder. I'll log in over Christmas and we can see who had a better handle on it all.

greyday

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The reason for lifting lockdown too early or imposing it too late for a second wave is directly related to lockdown fatigue. Remember the reluctance here to go to Level 5.

I'd prefer long running restrictions that do not cause fatigue. What those restrictions are I don't know exactly. Probably enough that people's mental health isn't affected or that they don't feel trapped at home. In the UK and NI they have started allowing crowds at football matches which seems risky especially when you look at NI deaths and cases.

If you look at us in the south, allowing gaa club championship resume was risky as you'd inevitably have crowds and celebrations at games.
We aren't the same type of pub goer as in Sweden - there I'd imagine its a couple of drinks with table service and people keep in their own group. The Swedes among us might be able to advice on swedish pub culture. I think we can all agree the Irish are a more sociable society than the Swedes, not that there's anything wrong with that. Apparantly the Swedes hate small talk (I don't like it much myself) whereas in Ireland a lot of people live for small talk.

You call it lockdown fatigue while I call it gambling, were were on our way to do the same until Holohan forced the Governments hand, I don't personally like Holohan but the rest of Europe could have done with him in this instance, he played it conservatively and has won hands down against the alternative to leaving it go as long as you dear before locking down anyway.

I dont know about ye but other than Pubs and restaurants being shut for the last number of weeks I would not call this a lockdown, I have not been stopped by the Gardai once since level 3 and then 5 came in and other than inconvenience of mask wearing and social distancing, its really no where near as bad as the first lockdown IMO.

greyday

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Frank, your projections for where Sweden will finish in your favoured 'Deaths per Million' ranking chart are very unsound.

They're currently ranked 25th worst (including micro-states), but because of how Sweden reports deaths versus every other country - that ranking is essentially comparing every other country's death figures per million with Sweden's death stats as of two weeks ago. And it's been a bad fortnight or so in Sweden.
A conservative estimate would be that there's been another 1,000+ deaths as yet unreported.
If they reported in the same manner as every other country then they'd be in around 18th currently.

Added to this is that most of the countries with similar death tolls per million have experienced the peak of their second wave and deaths are on the decline. While in Sweden things are getting very much worse with no end in sight.

So all in all I can conclude with a lot of confidence that your projection is bogus and the opposite is far more likely to be true. Sweden will climb the table by Christmas, while still being more than 14 days out of date.

Please, bookmark this post. Set a reminder. I'll log in over Christmas and we can see who had a better handle on it all.

I have been telling him this for the last while but he is not interested in hearing anything that goes against his view.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There's something like a 3% difference with Norway.

Finland actually has higher elderly and I said that's why I thought Finland's achievements were most impressive in scandanavia.

Ireland's deaths are 4 times higher per capita than the other scandanavian countries combined by the way.

Hardly a great advert for our lockdown!

Finland is 2% higher than Sweden and Denmark the same, so proportionally the four Nordic countries are the same for those 65 and over.

I have always believed a comparison between Nordic countries is more apt than one between Ireland and the three Nordic countries of Finland, Norway and Denmark.
Using your comparison of our deaths being 4 times higher as opposed to Sweden`s 7 times higher, then it`s not such a poor an advert for lockdown.
It`s 75% less deaths.

tobefrank321

JimmyVik wrote: »

And counting ... at a high rate.
Even the Swedes are calling for help now.
Its actually very sad where they have come to.

Here's a breakdown of ICU in Sweden.

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

As you can see they are still below the spring for ICU.

Stockholm has issues but overall they are doing ok. I read a stat somewhere, and I will post it when I find it, that currently something like a half of ICU beds are full in the country and about a quarter in total are for ICU patients.

There is still headroom there. Stolkholm will ask for help and new ICU admissions will be transferred elsewhere.

ICU admission problems are nothing new at winter time. The HSE here expanded ICU due to an expected surge. Its generally a case of moving around resources.

TonyMaloney

greyday wrote: »

I have been telling him this for the last while but he is not interested in hearing anything that goes against his view.

He's clearly quite obstinate, but I think one thing I said might have got through to him the other day - why would your deaths suddenly start declining while you have steadily rising cases?

I could well be wrong, but I think I saw a chink of light. A flicker of understanding.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Here's a breakdown of ICU in Sweden.

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

As you can see they are still below the spring for ICU.

Stockholm has issues but overall they are doing ok. I read a stat somewhere, and I will post it when I find it, that currently something like a half of ICU beds are full in the country and about a quarter in total are for ICU patients.

There is still headroom there. Stolkholm will ask for help and new ICU admissions will be transferred elsewhere.

ICU admission problems are nothing new at winter time. The HSE here expanded ICU due to an expected surge. Its generally a case of moving around resources.

With another close to 8,000 new cases today I cannot see the ICU situation improving unless they start to get those number down significantly, and soon.

I appreciate they can move patients around, but the situation is different in this wave compared to the first. Then it was mainly Stockholm that was effected. This time every region is, and some are reporting very high numbers as well where they most likely have little extra capacity to spare.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

Finland is 2% higher than Sweden and Denmark the same, so proportionally the four Nordic countries are the same for those 65 and over.

I have always believed a comparison between Nordic countries is more apt than one between Ireland and the three Nordic countries of Finland, Norway and Denmark.
Using your comparison of our deaths being 4 times higher as opposed to Sweden`s 7 times higher, then it`s not such a poor an advert for lockdown.
It`s 75% less deaths.

As I said before, because two countries are in the same region and use the same approach, it doesn't always follow they will have the same outcome. Even slight variances might throw things off.

To take one example - Stockholm is 400% more dense than Oslo. The economies of both countries appear to be vastly different - 62% of Norway's exports are from oil and gas, Sweden meanwhile depends more on manufacturing. Sweden is in the EU, Norway is not. Swedes despite their reputation for living along are more likely to work collaboratively while Norwegians tend to work alone when problem solving.

To be honest Charlie, we're both Irish people, sitting in our armchairs, trying to be experts on life in Scandanavia. Which is why I always set more store by what Swedish posters contribute on here.