Sweden avoiding lockdown

SuperTortoise

Cyrus wrote: »

It’s also true that it’s killing a large portion of people who will have died this year anyway. So it will be interesting to see the full year 2020 numbers versus other years when we have them

The fact is, those people will die before their time, be it a week or 10 years, it's tragic, and a lot of them were preventable.

ush

biko wrote: »

I wonder at what numbers you will think "fcuk, the Swedish government totally murdered all those people".

10 000!

dubrov

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Given that the virus was in its infancy in the UK on the 20th March this is hardly surprising.

There will be a stark increase in deaths in the UK, give it a month to start throwing stats around. Very unusual to have ICU's at full capacity in mid April also.

This virus is a killer have no doubt, it is also not the Flu.

True, it was in its infancy but I'd like to see some official stats.
A&Es are empty and ICUs are still a long way from capacity..

degsie

Cyrus wrote: »

Are you feeling ok ?

Feet planted firmly in the real world where there is a recognition that this virus is taking too many people before their time. I feel perfectly fine and not so flippant about death, thank you.

Breezin

Strazdas wrote: »

Problem is that herd immunity and Covid-19 is only a theory. It's an extraordinary gamble to go down the route of "Let's give this theory a go and see what happens" as the Swedes are doing.

The point is that both strategies are gambles in the long term. The Swedish one is the more moderate, less politically-led, route.

dubrov

Breezin wrote: »

The point is that both strategies are gambles in the long term. The Swedish one is the more moderate, less politically-led, route.

I would say the Swedish government is taking the riskier gamble.
If other governments are wrong, they will be able to the fact that everyone else was taking that approach so there is certainly more safety in numbers.

Cyrus

SuperTortoise wrote: »

The fact is, those people will die before their time, be it a week or 10 years, it's tragic, and a lot of them were preventable.

I didn't say otherwise, it seems some of you can't take emotion out of it.

Cyrus

degsie wrote: »

Feet planted firmly in the real world where there is a recognition that this virus is taking too many people before their time. I feel perfectly fine and not so flippant about death, thank you.

Who was being flippant ? Don't be so sensitive.

IAMAMORON

dubrov wrote: »

True, it was in its infancy but I'd like to see some official stats.
A&Es are empty and ICUs are still a long way from capacity..

I don't know where you read that?

They are going through a crisis, have run out of proper PPE, have set up temporary hospitals, staff are dying, there is major epicentre in Gwent in Wales of all places. The UK is struggling bigtime. They topped 15,400 deaths today. 5 weeks ago they had 3 deaths nationally. That is 15,337 deaths in 5 weeks. Well above average you will find.

See link for the office of national statistics. Have a look for yourself.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

dubrov

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I don't know where you read that?

They are going through a crisis, have run out of proper PPE, have set up temporary hospitals, staff are dying, there is major epicentre in Gwent in Wales of all places. The UK is struggling bigtime. They topped 15,400 deaths today. 5 weeks ago they had 3 deaths nationally. That is 15,337 deaths in 5 weeks. Well above average you will find.

See link for the office of national statistics. Have a look for yourself.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

Thanks good to see some real numbers.
For others benefit, the link states

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average.

In relation to ICU numbers there appears to be loads of articles in late March talking about a possible overload of ICUs but nothing since.
I also found this in relation to London
https://www.hsj.co.uk/service-design/exclusive-nightingale-largely-empty-as-icus-handle-surge/7027398.article

munster87

Del Griffith wrote: »

LOL, are you for real, I think you've confused immune with asymptomatic.

Groups are working on vaccines you say, stop the presses! So we are in agreement then, there is currently no vaccine.

They were talking about immunity in people who have had the virus already I’d assume

Breezin

dubrov wrote: »

I would say the Swedish government is taking the riskier gamble.
If other governments are wrong, they will be able to the fact that everyone else was taking that approach so there is certainly more safety in numbers.

That is a bigger PR risk, yes. I do think a lot of this is about being seen to do something and to cover people's asses.

Our Minister for health is a PR man. The UK govt is led by a media guy. Optics rule. And we all feel safer because more is being done - apparently.

STB.

Breezin wrote: »

The point is that both strategies are gambles in the long term. The Swedish one is the more moderate, less politically-led, route.

No they are not both gambles.

One is a public health strategy to not abandon the most vulnerable to the virus.

The other is a do nothing heads in the sand approach in favour of economics.

The Swedish strategy is not moderate. Its extreme. Extremely negligent to gamble with peoples lives. Herd Immunity is NOT a vaccine. So signs on it, they will have massive deaths that their ICU capacity cannot deal with over the next month. Their ICU capacity is 5.8 per 100k, just a tad above us, so they shouldn't have been gambling at all with a 10 mill population.

Their only saving grace is that 50% of Stockholm have been ignoring their own country's advice and working from home. They are still in serious trouble.

Danzy

ush wrote: »

But they haven't, have they? Just because you wish to see Sweden fail, doesn't mean it actually will.

No but what is right in one place can be very wrong in another.

Sweden is very North, that is a big help, Britain tried the same approach and quickly changed tack as it unravelled.

Breezin

STB. wrote: »

No they are not both gambles.

One is a public health strategy to not abandon the most vulnerable to the virus.

The other is a do nothing heads in the sand approach in favour of economics.

The Swedish strategy is not moderate. Its extreme. Extremely negligent to gamble with peoples lives. Herd Immunity is NOT a vaccine. So signs on it, they will have massive deaths that their ICU capacity cannot deal with over the next month. Their ICU capacity is 5.8 per 100k, just a tad above us, so they shouldn't have been gambling at all with a 10 mill population.

Their only saving grace is that 50% of Stockholm have been ignoring their own country's advice and working from home. They are still in serious trouble.

This is in the seen-to- be-doing something school of thought. No one is saying everything is hunky dory for Sweden, but neither is it for us.

You need to look again at the international comparison charts.

STB.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

In relation to testing South Korea is often referred to in glowing terms, so it's interesting that in a chart of 20 countries i saw listed earlier in terms of volume of testing, Korea was only listed as 17th.

So seems to suggest there were other factors involved or it came down not necessarily to volume but to efficiency and contact tracing. Maybe a bit of good old-fashioned luck involved too.

The reason they are seventh on the list is because some of the countries above them are tiny countries that may have more tests per head of population but their country's population is a few thousand anyway. Example Panama.

South Korea's efficiency is down to a lot of testing in a very short period of time. 500,000 + tests. But they just didnt test as you say, it was part of a strict containment plan. Extensive monitoring traffic coming in and out of the country at ports from day one. Public buy in from day one. Utilising follow up via mobile tech.

STB.

Breezin wrote: »

This is in the seen-to- be-doing something school of thought. No one is saying everything is hunky dory for Sweden, but neither is it for us.

You need to look again at the international comparison charts.

What nonsense is this ? It is Public Health advice largely on the basis of combined minds in the medical community, headed up by WHO.

You sure as shít do not sit on your hands when there is a world wide pandemic going on.

Unless you are willing to let people die in favour of your economy which their country's chief epidemiologist has suggested. It is not public health based advice, it is economical. No epidemiologist would provide such an unproven strategy unless they are stone mad.

People have been advocating herd immunity as some form of working alternative mechanism for dealing with this pandemic, without realising
Herd Immunity is not a vaccine. A few facts.

• Sweden are only testing those with respiratory problems. So effectively no testing. The numbers are people turning up in hospitals or dying. Hence their fatality rate is very high.
• They don't know how many have the virus, so they are blind to its contagion.
• They have more deaths than the other Nordic Countries combined who total 16 million people. I suspect that will accumulate significantly over this month given it has no doubt spread like wildfire over the past month with no attempts to contain the spread.
• Their ICU capacity is not up to dealing with this when they all present at once.

Stop reading charts with zoomed out figures. It is people lives we are talking about, not bags of sugar.

This is actually cocooning season in Sweden anyway. Their actual sunlight increases over April to June.

dubrov

STB, you are reaching conclusions when there is still a long way to go in this thing.

STB.

dubrov wrote: »

STB, you are reaching conclusions when there is still a long way to go in this thing.

How so ?

I have seen their figures. Their country is limiting testing to to those with respiratory problems. This is hiding the true levels of contagion out there. Why ? They are in denial. Wait until it hits like other country's who had better ICU capacity and have now been brought to their knees by its effectiveness.

Sweden have 2,061 closed cases. 73% of them died. 73%.

10% of their current active cases are in critical condition, another 1000 people.

They have went on a solo gamble with a pandemic. The UK did the same. Then changed their minds. A lot of needless deaths could have been avoided.

Del Griffith

munster87 wrote: »

They were talking about immunity in people who have had the virus already I’d assume

That makes no sense in the context of our conversation though (almost as little as what he did mean). You are not immune to a virus if you catch it and are asymptomatic, the critical difference being the spread obviously. Again there was no immunity to begin with, nor any vaccine, hence the current situation overloading hospitals and restrictions to prevent spread, etc.

BUT that doesn't necessarily mean the mortality rates are definitely going to be FAR higher than a bad flu season, but due to how contagious covid19 is it means they're all happening far too quickly.

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

How so ?

I have seen their figures. Their country is limiting testing to to those with respiratory problems. This is hiding the true levels of contagion out there. Why ? They are in denial. Wait until it hits like other country's who had better ICU capacity and have now been brought to their knees by its effectiveness.

Sweden have 2,061 closed cases. 73% of them died. 73%.

10% of their current active cases are in critical condition, another 1000 people.

They have went on a solo gamble with a pandemic. The UK did the same. Then changed their minds. A lot of needless deaths could have been avoided.

Do you agree they should really be a lot worse by now though.

STB.

niallo27 wrote: »

Do you agree they should really be a lot worse by now though.

No. 73% of closed cases resulting in death in nothing to look up to.

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

How so ?

I have seen their figures. Their country is limiting testing to to those with respiratory problems. This is hiding the true levels of contagion out there. Why ? They are in denial. Wait until it hits like other country's who had better ICU capacity and have now been brought to their knees by its effectiveness.

Sweden have 2,061 closed cases. 73% of them died. 73%.

10% of their current active cases are in critical condition, another 1000 people.

They have went on a solo gamble with a pandemic. The UK did the same. Then changed their minds. A lot of needless deaths could have been avoided.

For context, 88% of closed cases in ireland have ended in death.

dubrov

STB. wrote: »

How so ?

I have seen their figures. Their country is limiting testing to to those with respiratory problems. This is hiding the true levels of contagion out there. Why ? They are in denial. Wait until it hits like other country's who had better ICU capacity and have now been brought to their knees by its effectiveness.

Sweden have 2,061 closed cases. 73% of them died. 73%.

10% of their current active cases are in critical condition, another 1000 people.

They have went on a solo gamble with a pandemic. The UK did the same. Then changed their minds. A lot of needless deaths could have been avoided.

Because the Pandemic is a long way from finished in Ireland.

For all anyone knows, the death total could end up the same (proportionately) here and we could be locked down for 6 months (which brings its own raft of social and economic issues).

Time will tell

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

No. 73% of closed cases resulting in death in nothing to look up to.

It is, it's better than we are doing.

Turtwig

STB. wrote: »

No they are not both gambles.

One is a public health strategy to not abandon the most vulnerable to the virus.

The other is a do nothing heads in the sand approach in favour of economics.

The Swedish strategy is not moderate. Its extreme. Extremely negligent to gamble with peoples lives. Herd Immunity is NOT a vaccine. So signs on it, they will have massive deaths that their ICU capacity cannot deal with over the next month. Their ICU capacity is 5.8 per 100k, just a tad above us, so they shouldn't have been gambling at all with a 10 mill population.

Their only saving grace is that 50% of Stockholm have been ignoring their own country's advice and working from home. They are still in serious trouble.

Can we please drop this 'Sweden are doing nothing'. They are doing less and their societal structure may or may not allow for it. Only time will tell. To put it another way even if this works out for Sweden it is does not mean it would have necessarily worked for Ireland. Every society is different. Culture, infrastructure and population also play a role.

STB.

niallo27 wrote: »

For context, 88% of closed cases in ireland have ended in death.

For context, Niall, You better check the source and the context of that.

1,511 out of 2,061 cases died in Sweden. Another 10% of current cases are in critical condition.

We have 14,758 cases in total. 14,110 are considered active cases.

Sweden's fatality rate is extremely high. 22 of the country’s most prominent professors in infectious diseases and epidemiology published a commentary in Dagens Nyheter calling on their chief advisor to resign and appealing to the government to take a different course of action.



If you are genuinely interested in what is happening in Sweden, you should read Hans Bergstrom's article here.

STB.

Turtwig wrote: »

Can we please drop this 'Sweden are doing nothing'. They are doing less and their societal structure may or may not allow for it. Only time will tell. To put it another way even if this works out for Sweden it is does not mean it would have necessarily worked for Ireland. Every society is different. Culture, infrastructure and population also play a role.

They are doing nothing.

The government have abdicated their public health responsibilities to the general public under the guise of self responsibility.

Don't just rock in here, without reading the thread please and its context and arguments for killing people in favour of saving bureaucrats and their cronies' money. I suggest you do a bit of reading. Nearly a quarter of their population are immigrants, many haven't a clue what is going on.

Widdensushi

STB. wrote: »

For context, Niall, You better check the source and the context of that.

1,511 out of 2,061 cases died in Sweden. Another 10% of current cases are in critical condition.

We have 14,758 cases in total. 14,110 are considered active cases.

Sweden's fatality rate is extremely high. 22 of the country’s most prominent professors in infectious diseases and epidemiology published a commentary in Dagens Nyheter calling on their chief advisor to resign and appealing to the government to take a different course of action.



If you are genuinely interested in what is happening in Sweden, you should read Hans Bergstrom's article here.

scientists are a dime a dozen and they all have to have different opinions to justify their existence, for every scientist there is an equal but opposite scientist !

biko

thebaz wrote: »

Im confused, here you are saying Sweden are doing ok, and a couple of post up you are accusing ther Government of murder ?

Ok, let's break it down.
1 Sweden are doing ok compared to Belgium because they are "only" 13th deadliest country right now (total deaths). Belgium is 6th.

2 Sweden, compared to its neighbours, are wilfully allowing its population to get infected in a hope some sort of herd immunity will kick in, when there is no evidence this approach will even work.
This approach is to me reckless and contraire to every notion of safety, and to every other country's approach.

I hope they know what they're doing, but it seems unlikely and is not backed up by any evidence it will work.