Sweden avoiding lockdown

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

Even the Swedes disagree with your claims on this. Amused at the straight-faced assertions on the use of stats on this thread.

https://www.thelocal.se/20201214/sweden-sees-highest-excess-mortality-in-100-years

Irelands excess deaths for April were something like 1000 over the normal.

From the article you quoted, Sweden's was 700 over a normal November.

Are you really preaching about Sweden?

Do you accept there are currently 400,000 excess deaths for Europe? Suppose you think they are all in Sweden.

Lots of countries will have worst ever months, but it will be brushed under the carpet. Don't worry, I wouldn't expect you to take an interest in them.

In fact I have the stat here for Ireland.

The numbers of death notices increased to 3,502 in April from 2,861 in March, in comparison, the average number of deaths for April for the years 2013-2017 was approximately 2,500.

https://www.thejournal.ie/excess-deaths-covid-19-ireland-5252481-Nov2020/

So Sweden's excess deaths for november represents under 10% over a normal year and its front page news. Ireland excess for April was 40% over a normal April and it doesn't even get a mention.

Keep up the finger pointing. Looks great, it really does.

is_that_so

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Irelands excess deaths for April were something like 1000 over the normal.

From the article you quoted, Sweden's was 700 over a normal November.

Are you really preaching about Sweden?

Do you accept there are currently 400,000 excess deaths for Europe? Suppose you think they are all in Sweden.

Lots of countries will have worst ever months, but it will be brushed under the carpet. Don't worry, I wouldn't expect you to take an interest in them.

In fact I have the stat here for Ireland.



https://www.thejournal.ie/excess-deaths-covid-19-ireland-5252481-Nov2020/

So Sweden's excess deaths for november represents under 10% over a normal year and its front page news. Ireland excess for April was 40% over a normal year and it doesnt even get a mention.

Keep up the finger pointing. Looks great, it really does.

No, I gave you a link from a Swedish site and that was all. They made the claim not me but keep up the shadow boxing.

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

No, I gave you a link from a Swedish site and that was all. They made the claim not me but keep up the shadow boxing.

The stat is valid but its nonsense to put it up as front page news when almost every country in Europe will have worst ever months during this pandemic.

Highlighting Sweden's 9% excess for a month, while ignoring Ireland's 40% excess for a month is pretty typical of the hypocritical armchair Swedish critics.

Its the reason I call them finger pointers!

biko

Celebrate Christmas with Anders Tegnell and family - 5 minutes via Zoom.
This is up for grabs at a charity action.



https://bossan.musikhjalpen.se/tegnell-vid-julbordet

greyday

biko wrote: »

Celebrate Christmas with Anders Tegnell and family - 5 minutes via Zoom.
This is up for grabs at a charity action.



https://bossan.musikhjalpen.se/tegnell-vid-julbordet

More than 7800 people can't avail of that offer as they got Tegnelled during the year.

tobefrank321

biko wrote: »

Celebrate Christmas with Anders Tegnell and family - 5 minutes via Zoom.
This is up for grabs at a charity action.



https://bossan.musikhjalpen.se/tegnell-vid-julbordet

What Swedish rule is he breaking here? The rule says no more than 8.

Enjoy your Christmas locked in your fort Biko. Maybe next christmas will be different eh? Although one suggestion I heard on the news today is it could be 2022 by the time we're all vaccinated.

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Irelands excess deaths for April were something like 1000 over the normal.

For Ireland:

There were about 1,100 to 1,200 more deaths than we would expect based on historical patterns; a 13% increase between 11 March to 16 June.
https://www.hiqa.ie/hiqa-news-updates/covid-19-causes-13-increase-deaths-ireland-between-march-and-june-2020-hiqa

Picked up by RTE:
https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/0703/1151127-virus-report/

Sweden's straregy has failed dismally and the 10% excess deaths in November are its victims.

greyday

odyssey06 wrote: »

For Ireland:

There were about 1,100 to 1,200 more deaths than we would expect based on historical patterns; a 13% increase between 11 March to 16 June.
https://www.hiqa.ie/hiqa-news-updates/covid-19-causes-13-increase-deaths-ireland-between-march-and-june-2020-hiqa

Picked up by RTE:
https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/0703/1151127-virus-report/

Sweden's straregy has failed dismally and the 10% excess deaths in November are its victims.

According to the General Register’s Office which records all deaths in Ireland:

“During April 2020, there were 2,689 deaths registered in Ireland. During April 2019, there were 2,599 deaths registered. During April 2018, there were 2,940 deaths registered.”

The figures supplied by another poster who produces dubious stats to support his loyalty to Swedens strategy must be updated figures from later in the year as I believe the figures supplied above came out late may/early June, it was early in the pandemic so I would assume cause of deaths took extra time to publish.
We are seeing all over Europe that Countries who copied Swedens soft restrictions during the summer months got caught out badly when the second wave started, they are now going into hard lockdowns again from a far higher base as they can see from Swedens approach the number of infections and deaths rise consistently until transmission mechanisms are reduced substantially, its a pity that those Countries that acted responsibly during the first wave could not carry that through for the second wave, they might well have reacted differently if Sweden had done the right thing during the first wave and copied the rest of Europe with lockdowns, most especially their closest neighbours, a lot of Countries delayed the first lockdown by a week or two which we can now see caused a massive amount of deaths that could have been avoided.

tobefrank321

odyssey06 wrote: »

For Ireland:

There were about 1,100 to 1,200 more deaths than we would expect based on historical patterns; a 13% increase between 11 March to 16 June.
https://www.hiqa.ie/hiqa-news-updates/covid-19-causes-13-increase-deaths-ireland-between-march-and-june-2020-hiqa

Picked up by RTE:
https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/0703/1151127-virus-report/

Sweden's straregy has failed dismally and the 10% excess deaths in November are its victims.

I'm talking about the month of April only, just as others are talking about the month of November in Sweden.

You've taken a period of 3 months, and spread out the excess over those 3 months, knowing well that most deaths occured in April. So if there was a 40% excess deaths in April and no excess deaths for the other two months, this equates to an excess of about 13% for those 3 months combined.

Hiqa are not professional statisticians, the CSO are, the clue is in their name. If they said the excess was 1000 for April that's good enough for me and they are a pretty good source, and much better statisticians that anyone here obviously!

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'm talking about the month of April only, just as others are talking about the month of November in Sweden.
You've taken a period of 3 months, and spread out the excess over those 3 months, knowing well that most deaths occured in April. So if there was a 40% excess deaths in April and no excess deaths for the other two months, this equates to an excess of about 13% for those 3 months combined.
Hiqa are not professional statisticians, the CSO are, the clue is in their name. If they said the excess was 1000 for April that's good enough for me and they are a pretty good source, and much better statisticians that anyone here obviously!

I haven't done any spreading, I am quoting from the HIQA and CSO.
You will note that the link below comes from the CSO website.

Based on the analysis of death notices the estimates for excess mortality for the period March - September 2020 ranges between 876 and 1,192.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/fb/b-mpds/measuringmortalityusingpublicdatasources2019-2020/

Regardless, whether the excess in Ireland was 40% in April or 10% over 3 months - and you will note I am not the one doing the spreading, the CSO are - my main point was...

Boards is full of posts from people claiming we should have followed Sweden's strategy after our first lockdown, because the first wave killed all those vulnerable to the virus and there was no risk of a spike in mortality from lifting restrictions as those who got through the first wave would be ok.

That basically it was pointless trying to protect people because those who would succumb to the disease would do so regardless, and those who got through would be ok without the protection of restrictions.

I referenced Sweden in relation to that theory, which November's figures from Sweden have shown to be demonstably false.

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Hiqa are not professional statisticians, the CSO are, the clue is in their name. If they said the excess was 1000 for April that's good enough for me and they are a pretty good source, and much better statisticians that anyone here obviously!

April isn't typically a month with high mortality and that was our peak COVID death month so hardly surprising. Largely made up of nursing home residents stacked with patients moved from hospitals with COVID running rampant coupled with them forced to stay open to visitors and zero testing by the HSE. The same mistakes were made in Sweden.

Bit cynical

odyssey06 wrote: »

Boards is full of posts from people claiming we should have followed Sweden's strategy after our first lockdown, because the first wave killed all those vulnerable to the virus and there was no risk of a spike in mortality from lifting restrictions as those who got through the first wave would be ok.

I don't think it is the case that many made that argument.

JimmyVik

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think it is the case that many made that argument.

Very few even trying to make it now for sure.

micosoft

Well the King has well and truly spoken to end this thread. The Swedish approach was wrong and looks increasingly that the Irish "Hammer and Dance" approach was right.

JimmyVik

micosoft wrote: »

Well the King has well and truly spoken to end this thread. The Swedish approach was wrong and looks increasingly that the Irish "Hammer and Dance" approach was right.

He should have spoken to Frank before he went public

greyday

91 Deaths and close to 9K infections, all Franks predictions and analysis are coming to fruition.

micosoft

greyday wrote: »

91 Deaths and close to 9K infections, all Franks predictions and analysis are coming to fruition.

"Sweden has reported about 1,700 Covid deaths in the past month compared with about 100 each in Finland and Norway, each of which have half Sweden’s population"

Is the Swedish King in on this Anti-Sweden Conspiracy?

whippet

My brother was telling me his kids school (close to Upsalla) is riddled with it .. and his Swedish family are now more or less in isolation for the last few weeks. He has stocked up the farm with supplies so they won’t have to leave the place until at least feb.

He said the change in attitude amongst the locals is evident

greyday

micosoft wrote: »

"Sweden has reported about 1,700 Covid deaths in the past month compared with about 100 each in Finland and Norway, each of which have half Sweden’s population"

Is the Swedish King in on this Anti-Sweden Conspiracy?

He is doubtful of Frank Tegnells analysis and predictions, when they recover faster than the rest of Europe he will see Frank was right all along.

tobefrank321

Horrendous figures of notified deaths and cases in a number of lockdown countries yesterday.

NI have been in and out of lockdown and tiers and all that - now they are treating patients in ambulances with their hospitals overrun. Their deaths and cases are regularly worse than the south despite 40% of the souths population.

The US, another country in and out of lockdown, 3538 deaths yesterday - a new high.

Germany, the model lockdown student - 749 deaths - a new high - just short of 5000 in ICU

UK - 612 deaths, despite using tiers for several weeks

Poland - 605 deaths - equivalent to 170 a day in Sweden

Bulgaria - less than 70% of Sweden's population - 191 deaths - the equivalent of 280 deaths in Sweden

South Africa - 1250 deaths in the last week alone - despite one of the strictest lockdowns in the world

Slovenia - 39 deaths - the equivalent of close to 200 in Sweden - unfortunately a regular occurance there and they are now on course to have the worst deaths per million in the world, despite a hard lockdown in the spring.

Hungary - 144 deaths from a smaller population than sweden

Croatia - 92 deaths - a new high

Lithuania - 44 deaths - a new high - and 3400 new cases, also a new high

Denmark - today recorded over 4000 cases, a new high and 17 deaths which is just 5 off their previous high - given the lag in deaths, this is likely to rise. bolded this one before our usual friend comes along to say yeh but you don't mention Scandinavia.

Turkey - almost 30,000 cases, 240 deaths and just short of 6000 in ICU

Switzerland and Austria well over 100 deaths each, despite considerably smaller populations than Sweden. Switzerland has registered 520 notified deaths in the last week alone, and over 2600 covid deaths for November alone.

And that unfortunately is just a small flavour.

One last thing - I notice one or two posters resorting to personal insults on here. From my experience this is ALWAYS the sign of someone losing an argument and getting both desperate and childish.

tobefrank321

Deleted User wrote: »

April isn't typically a month with high mortality and that was our peak COVID death month so hardly surprising. Largely made up of nursing home residents stacked with patients moved from hospitals with COVID running rampant coupled with them forced to stay open to visitors and zero testing by the HSE. The same mistakes were made in Sweden.

Agreed. Although at the time our nursing home deaths were proportionally worse.

Sweden owned up to their nursing home mistakes and apologised. We didn't. In fact and I could be wrong here, I've yet to hear any apology from any other health authority in the world for the mistakes they made with nursing homes and in most developed countries, nursing home deaths account for about half of deaths.

You're unlikely to see regular newspaper headlines in Swedish papers pointing fingers at Ireland for their nursing homes mistakes or at any other country. The UK newspapers in particular like to point fingers at other countries despite an awful performance by their own government.

Ginger n Lemon

tobefrank321 wrote: »

One last thing - I notice one or two posters resorting to personal insults on here. From my experience this is ALWAYS the sign of someone losing an argument and getting both desperate and childish.

Why I dont post here anymore. Its either an echo chamber of "Tegnelled" idiocy, or just personal insults at someone posting huge covid death numbers in countries that have been in lockdown clearly showing that theres virtually no benefits of a lockdown strategy over Swedish one.

Czech republic - identical population to Sweden, 1 hour flight from Sweden, 10k deaths with covid. 5 months in lockdown this year.

Sweden, identical population to Czech republic, 7.8k deaths with covid.



I mean why is Swedish strategy being branded as "failure" ? Why isnt lockdown strategy being called a failure? there are 20 + countries (that are not Belarus, China or North Korea reported figures of which would be difficult to trust) who have been in lockdown for 4 - 8 months + this year, who have higher deaths than Sweden per 100k.

greyday

Its amazing people don't seem to want to compare Sweden with the Country that locked down on time but are more than happy to compare to Countries that locked down too late.
I miss the posts comparing Sweden to Ireland.........
Hopefully it does not get much worse for Sweden but I fear the worst at this stage with seemingly increasing infections and deaths for a while yet as they were behind most of Europe starting the second wave, that's maybe the biggest scandal of the second wave in that they had an extra two weeks to take the appropriate action but believed Frank Tegnell that they would not have a second wave, if you made a mistake like that in the private sector you would be getting fired.

is_that_so

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Why I dont post here anymore. Its either an echo chamber of "Tegnelled" idiocy, or just personal insults at someone posting huge covid death numbers in countries that have been in lockdown clearly showing that theres virtually no benefits of a lockdown strategy over Swedish one.

Czech republic - identical population to Sweden, 1 hour flight from Sweden, 10k deaths with covid. 5 months in lockdown this year.

Sweden, identical population to Czech republic, 7.8k deaths with covid.



I mean why is Swedish strategy being branded as "failure" ? Why isnt lockdown strategy being called a failure? there are 20 + countries (that are not Belarus, China or North Korea reported figures of which would be difficult to trust) who have been in lockdown for 4 - 8 months + this year, who have higher deaths than Sweden per 100k.

The king certainly thinks so.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1217/1185099-covid-sweden-king/

greyday

Non Emergency surgeries postponed until end of January at the very least.

The rare royal rebuke came after the two major Swedish regions of Stockholm and Skåne announced that they had been forced to postpone non-emergency operations as the country’s health sector strains to deal with a second wave of infections.
“We will manage emergency care, we will manage Covid care,” Skåne’s regional health director, Alf Jönsson, said on Wednesday. “But this will happen at the expense of other healthcare.” More than 25% of Covid-19 tests were positive, he said.

The Stockholm regional healthcare director said all non-urgent care would be put off until at least 31 January. “My duty now is to do everything I can to relieve and help care staff,” Björn Eriksson said. “They have to keep going for weeks, months.”

Tegnell insisted in a television interview that it was too soon to say whether Sweden’s strategy had failed. “Pretty much every country is struggling with this,” he told TV4, adding that he had been surprised by the scale of the second wave and conceding the situation was “beginning to approach breaking point” in some areas.

Total Covid-associated deaths in Sweden, which has avoided strict mandatory lockdowns in favour of largely voluntary measures, reached 7,802 on Wednesday, with more than 500 in the last week and in excess of 1,800 since the beginning of November.

Its toll per million of 766.2 is approximately 10 times higher than neighbouring Norway and Finland and nearly five times that of Denmark, but lower than some European countries that imposed lockdowns such as France, Italy, Spain and Britain.

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

The king certainly thinks so.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1217/1185099-covid-sweden-king/

Ah yes that professional epidemiologist, the king.

Tegnell's support is at 59%, down 6%. Pretty solid support for his strategy even in the middle of a second wave that is affecting almost every country in the world.

greyday

More makey uppy numbers from Frank

An Ipsos poll for the daily Dagens Nyheter on Thursday showed public support for Anders Tegnell, the country’s chief epidemiologist and architect of its light-touch strategy, had fallen 13 points to 59%, with trust in the Public Health Agency down from 68% to 52%. Confidence in the the authorities in general slumped to a record low of 34%.

Seamai

micosoft wrote: »

Well the King has well and truly spoken to end this thread. The Swedish approach was wrong and looks increasingly that the Irish "Hammer and Dance" approach was right.

I hadn't heard that "Hammer and Dance" term before, had to look it up, thought the Tinker Flatley had a new show.

sydthebeat

greyday wrote: »

More makey uppy numbers from Frank

An Ipsos poll for the daily Dagens Nyheter on Thursday showed public support for Anders Tegnell, the country’s chief epidemiologist and architect of its light-touch strategy, had fallen 13 points to 59%, with trust in the Public Health Agency down from 68% to 52%. Confidence in the the authorities in general slumped to a record low of 34%.

not the first time frank has been untruthful in this thread

greyday

sydthebeat wrote: »

not the first time frank has been untruthful in this thread

Think his second name to pinnochio to be frank