Sweden avoiding lockdown

greyday

https://youtu.be/ZlHXW-uwa6o

Worth watching from about 8 mins on.

Enzokk

tobefrank321 wrote: »

One last thing - I notice one or two posters resorting to personal insults on here. From my experience this is ALWAYS the sign of someone losing an argument and getting both desperate and childish.

What I have noticed is if someone has to resort to comparing apples to oranges, it is a sign of someone losing the argument and them getting desperate. Take the below example to prove some point,

tobefrank321 wrote: »

South Africa - 1250 deaths in the last week alone - despite one of the strictest lockdowns in the world

You need to look at the figures when South Africa implemented the lockdown in April. Be careful, it will not do your argument any favours though. South Africa has been out of a lockdown for a while now and the rise in figures are the reason they are going back into one, because people die if you don't try to contain it. I don't know what is difficult to figure out about this.

South Africa has closed most of its beaches for the festive season to contain the virus. If anything showing the numbers in South Africa now shows what happens when you relax restrictions.

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Horrendous figures of notified deaths and cases in a number of lockdown countries yesterday.
Switzerland and Austria well over 100 deaths each, despite considerably smaller populations than Sweden. Switzerland has registered 520 notified deaths in the last week alone, and over 2600 covid deaths for November alone.

Are Switzerland in lockdown?
Since when?
Strange kind of lockdown when ski resorts are open.

Paper lockdowns like they had in NI dont foil covid.

And is Switzerlands population of 8.5 million considerately smaller than Swedens 10.2 million?

What tier of restrictions are Sweden on?

tobefrank321

sydthebeat wrote: »

not the first time frank has been untruthful in this thread

Says the poster who said Sweden were about to send patients abroad while not bothering to add the caveat that the person actually in charge of the decision said there was no such plans!

micosoft

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Horrendous figures of notified deaths and cases in a number of lockdown countries yesterday.
One last thing - I notice one or two posters resorting to personal insults on here. From my experience this is ALWAYS the sign of someone losing an argument and getting both desperate and childish.

And I tend to find wall of text answers to be the losing side. NI has absolutely not being following a lockdown. Why do you avoid that? And then selecting a lot of countries that were late to lockdown avoiding those that did i.e. most of Asia.

MadYaker

I’m not surprised this is happening to them. All I’m wondering is why it didn’t happen sooner and why did they think this wouldn’t happen?

sydthebeat

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Says the poster who said Sweden were about to send patients abroad while not bothering to add the caveat that the person actually in charge of the decision said there was no such plans!

ah but you see, i didnt actually SAY anything in that post that you are referring to

i quoted a newspaper article.

you were the one who misunderstood what was said in the article.

sydthebeat

MadYaker wrote: »

I’m not surprised this is happening to them. All I’m wondering is why it didn’t happen sooner and why did they think this wouldn’t happen?

they hoped to have herd immunity after the first wave... which failed miserably

tobefrank321

Enzokk wrote: »

What I have noticed is if someone has to resort to comparing apples to oranges, it is a sign of someone losing the argument and them getting desperate. Take the below example to prove some point,




You need to look at the figures when South Africa implemented the lockdown in April. Be careful, it will not do your argument any favours though. South Africa has been out of a lockdown for a while now and the rise in figures are the reason they are going back into one, because people die if you don't try to contain it. I don't know what is difficult to figure out about this.

South Africa has closed most of its beaches for the festive season to contain the virus. If anything showing the numbers in South Africa now shows what happens when you relax restrictions.

Personally I think closing beaches is idiotic. It leads to people staying indoors which is a far bigger risk for spread.

Of course you have to lift restrictions. I've made that point all along. No country can remain in lockdown indefinately. And the hundreds of millions who have been impoverished by long running lockdowns are completely ignored. While you have rich westerners saying its grand we can stay locked down forever. And ireland mightn't even make it to january 1st without another lockdown. And its unclear how fast vaccine rollout can happen. We could be in and out of lockdown for most of 2021.

tobefrank321

sydthebeat wrote: »

they hoped to have herd immunity after the first wave... which failed miserably

Other countries failed miserably. Germany is the latest to fail miserably. 5000 in ICU, 30,000 new cases. They are up sh*ts creek and deaths will follow.

PCeeeee

odyssey06 wrote: »

Are Switzerland in lockdown?
Since when?
Strange kind of lockdown when ski resorts are open.

Paper lockdowns like they had in NI dont foil covid.

And is Switzerlands population of 8.5 million considerately smaller than Swedens 10.2 million?

What tier of restrictions are Sweden on?

Yeah I'd be interested in Frank's view of the restrictions here in Switzerland too.

MadYaker

sydthebeat wrote: »

they hoped to have herd immunity after the first wave... which failed miserably

Despite there being literally no evidence for that and the UK doing a fairly big u turn on the same strategy? What made them so confident? Some of their politicians and scientists did seem a bit arrogant pontificating to the world a few months back. Still sad to see though.

tobefrank321

sydthebeat wrote: »

ah but you see, i didnt actually SAY anything in that post that you are referring to

i quoted a newspaper article.

you were the one who misunderstood what was said in the article.

It was a tabloid level article ie only half the story.

greyday

MadYaker wrote: »

Despite there being literally no evidence for that and the UK doing a fairly big u turn on the same strategy? What made them so confident? Some of their politicians and scientists did seem a bit arrogant pontificating to the world a few months back. Still sad to see though.

Tegnell was telling them as late as October that they would not have a second wave because of the strategy they undertook trying for herd immunity, even when all the data told them they had not even come close to achieving it, he could not admit the strategy was wrong from the start.

Frank above tries to frame the debate in permanent lockdown versus no lockdown while the intelligent people know that lockdown is used in a crisis situation to reduce numbers of infection which are going out of control, the Countries that tried to follow Sweden are now suffering badly, Tegnell should assume some responsibility for those Countries late decisions on lockdown for the second wave as well IMO.

It will be interesting to see the results of the enquiry into Swedens handling of the virus, their level of infection now is not coming down and their death rate is increasing even with incomplete data on recent deaths, A Nordic bank released a research paper last week saying Swedens daily deaths rate had already passed the high of the first wave and the death rate has only increased since then with two of its biggest hospitals saying they will not carry out any non emergency surgery until next year.

tobefrank321

odyssey06 wrote: »

Are Switzerland in lockdown?
Since when?
Strange kind of lockdown when ski resorts are open.

Paper lockdowns like they had in NI dont foil covid.

And is Switzerlands population of 8.5 million considerately smaller than Swedens 10.2 million?

What tier of restrictions are Sweden on?

15% smaller is considerably smaller.

Switzerland obviously couldn't afford to keep up their lockdown.

PCeeeee

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Switzerland obviously couldn't afford to keep up their lockdown.

So you think that contributed to the worsening infection rate?

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

15% smaller is considerably smaller.

Switzerland obviously couldn't afford to keep up their lockdown.

What lockdown and when?

15 % is smaller. Considerably so? Nope.

greyday

Franks says Germany are up the creek with 30K new cases, If they were on a par with Sweden they would have 80K new daily cases but Swedens numbers look sustainable to frank, do you see the sort of poster you are dealing with just from that?
He produces figures that are increased or decreased to suit his argument and moves in another direction when challenged on the figures, be careful with Frank as he loses the temper when his arguments fall apart and reports posters for being abusive. Apparently refuting bogus figures and arguments is abusive in Franks world

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Other countries failed miserably. Germany is the latest to fail miserably. 5000 in ICU, 30,000 new cases. They are up sh*ts creek and deaths will follow.

Germany tried light touch lockdown.
Didnt work.
The proper measures they have now adopted will be a different story.
The real failure is in not recognising that.

greyday

https://theconversation.com/sweden-and-japan-are-paying-the-price-for-covid-exceptionalism-151974

A very good read.

tobefrank321

odyssey06 wrote: »

What lockdown and when?

All covered here with some useful graphs.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19_coronavirus--the-situation-in-switzerland/45592192

Very successful lockdown in the spring but thats not much use to them now.

greyday

Germany has 5000 patients in ICU with Covid, however,



At the outset of the pandemic, Germany had 28,000 intensive care beds, more than most of its neighbouring countries. In recent days that has been raised to 40,000, as hospitals brace themselves for a huge influx of patients with Covid-19. 

12.5% of ICU beds taken up with Covid Patients, very bad but at least the capacity is there.

Sweden had 270 and most likely more due to their reporting out of 673 beds, Sweden looks sustainable to Frank though, Sweden's position is sustainable with 40% of ICU capacity taken up with Covid patients while Germany are up the creek with 12.5% of ICU capacity taken up and with about 45% of Swedens infection rate.

tobefrank321

PCeeeee wrote: »

Yeah I'd be interested in Frank's view of the restrictions here in Switzerland too.

Your restrictions in the spring worked. The problem is you can't close everything forever. Once you opened up a massive second wave became inevitable. You're on course to pass Sweden in deaths per million next week.

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

All covered here with some useful graphs.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19_coronavirus--the-situation-in-switzerland/45592192

Very successful lockdown in the spring but thats not much use to them now.

So they were locked down in Spring.
Yet you are citing deaths in November.

Absurd and disingenuous in the context of how you presented their data.

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Your restrictions in the spring worked. The problem is you can't close everything forever. Once you opened up a massive second wave became inevitable. You're on course to pass Sweden in deaths per million next week.

Why would that matter?

Sweden didnt lockdown and are having a massive second wave about to overwhelm their ICU capacity and the inevitable spike in deaths that will follow.

At least Switzerland avoided wave 1 and if they repeat the spring lockdown will flatten wave 2 to a lower peak... instead of letting it rip.

tobefrank321

odyssey06 wrote: »

So they were locked down in Spring.
Yet you are citing deaths in November.

Absurd and disingenuous in the context of how you presented their data.

Its about long term strategy, do you really not understand that? No one could sustain long term the types of lockdowns used in the spring.

Most of the countries doing worst now did best in the spring, eg Switzerland, Slovenia, Poland, Germany, Croatia, Hungary, Czechia, Austria, Portugal, Greece and several more.

Their long term strategy has been an obvious failure. How anyone can argue otherwise is beyond me.

tobefrank321

odyssey06 wrote: »

Why would that matter?

Sweden didnt lockdown and are having a massive second wave about to overwhelm their ICU capacity and the inevitable spike in deaths that will follow.

At least Switzerland avoided wave 1 and if they repeat the spring lockdown will flatten wave 2 to a lower peak... instead of letting it rip.

You obviously haven't looked at ICUs across Europe currently.

Turkey has 6000 covid patients in ICU, Germany has 5000, a number of countries of similar population to Sweden between 500-600.
Sweden had 270 in ICU.

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Its about long term strategy, do you really not understand that? No one could sustain long term the types of lockdowns used in the spring.

Most of the countries doing worst now did best in the spring, eg Switzerland, Slovenia, Poland, Germany, Croatia, Hungary, Czechia, Austria, Portugal, Greece and several more.

Their long term strategy has been an obvious failure. How anyone can argue otherwise is beyond me.

You dont have to sustain permanent lockdowns longterm.
The end is in sight with vaccine rollouts.

You still havent explained plausible mechanism why a massive second wave must inevitably follow after a lockdown... or how Sweden avoided it. Which in fact they have not done so as their increased deaths in November demonstrates.
Sweden cannot sustain an open society either.

Mervyn Skidmore

A weird phenomenon has arisen in the last few years, the inability to admit one might be wrong. These days when someone picks a side, no matter what the evidence, they will jump through hoops to show that their first decision was correct. Whatever happened to "when the facts change, I change my mind"?

tobefrank321

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

A weird phenomenon has arisen in the last few years, the inability to admit one might be wrong. These days when someone picks a side, no matter what the evidence, they will jump through hoops to show that their first decision was correct. Whatever happened to "when the facts change, I change my mind"?

You mean like an apology for being wrong? From governments and senior health professionals? Like the one issued by Sweden with regards to nursing homes?
The one we're still waiting for from the Irish government?

As for facts, they couldn't be clearer. A large number of countries are in deep trouble. Pretending otherwise won't work.