Sweden avoiding lockdown

biko

The King's speech made world news

MadYaker

Didn’t half throw tegnell under the bus :pac:

sydthebeat

Sweden looking to do a circuit break.... And I can see them having to double down on harder measures as its now rampant in the country

Miccoli

If Sweden strategy has been such a disaster as is being suggested, how are there total deaths this year broadly in line with the last 10 years and actually lower than 2017 and 2018?

odyssey06

Miccoli wrote: »

If Sweden strategy has been such a disaster as is being suggested, how are there total deaths this year broadly in line with the last 10 years and actually lower than 2017 and 2018?

Their death toll in november was 10% higher than previous years and their highest since the Spanish Flu.

Then consider there's been no flu in Europe this season because of the measures taken against covid globally - nothing to do with anything Sweden has done.
Similarly, the countries they border have all taken measures to reduce the spread of covid.

Come back to us when we've seen 12 months worth of covid hitting Sweden.

greyday

Miccoli wrote: »

If Sweden strategy has been such a disaster as is being suggested, how are there total deaths this year broadly in line with the last 10 years and actually lower than 2017 and 2018?

Watch what happens there over the next two months, its going to get very very bad.

Miccoli

odyssey06 wrote: »

Their death toll in november was 10% higher than previous years and their highest since the Spanish Flu.

Then consider there's been no flu in Europe this season because of the measures taken against covid globally - nothing to do with anything Sweden has done.

So come back to us when we've seen 12 months worth of covid hitting Sweden.

We've likely seen 12 months of covid in Sweden already considering it's been confirmed to have been in the UK, France and Spain since December of 2019, so your point doesn't really add up.

There death rates were lower in Q3 than previous years with no lockdowns and covid rampant apparently, so how did there failure of a strategy manage that?

Can't help but feel people are somewhat dissapointed that Sweden has seen a completely normal year in terms of deaths, despite the apocalyptic predictions made back in March when they didn't lockdown.

Miccoli

greyday wrote: »

Watch what happens there over the next two months, its going to get very very bad.

You could be right, I'm not discounting that possibility. I just think it's strange we've been hearing this for 9 months and it hasn't occurred yet.

greyday

Miccoli wrote: »

You could be right, I'm not discounting that possibility. I just think it's strange we've been hearing this for 9 months and it hasn't occurred yet.

They have multiple times the deaths and infections of their nearest neighbours, i dont go with the excess desths idea, the lockdown has saved lives from many other things which could very well negate the deaths from covid, covid primarily reduces life expectancy in elderly people who may have died of other ailments within the 12 months being measured.

Miccoli

greyday wrote: »

They have multiple times the deaths and infections of their nearest neighbours, i dont go with the excess desths idea, the lockdown has saved lives from many other things which could very well negate the deaths from covid, covid primarily reduces life expectancy in elderly people who may have died of other ailments within the 12 months being measured.

How can you not go with the excess deaths "idea", it basically confirms that not locking down for covid did not cause an increase in deaths in Sweden this year. They carried on relatively normally and saw a normal year in terms of deaths.

You bring up their Scandinavian neighbours having much lower covid death rates, which is a fair point, but at the same time there are 23 countries in the world with higher covid death rates per capita than Sweden, many of whom had hard lockdowns. That shows Swedens covid strategy was not an absolute failure nor was is it a success in terms of limiting covid deaths. From what I've gathered though, there strategy was not based around having zero covid deaths like New Zealand. Rather it was about keeping as normal a functioning society as possible whilst not seeing a huge increase in deaths. The excess death statistics show they've managed that.

Your point on lockdown saving lives for non covid diseases (apart from flu) is absolute nonsense aswell. There are Numerous studies out at this point stating that lockdown has actually increased non covid deaths.

odyssey06

Miccoli wrote: »

Your point on lockdown saving lives for non covid diseases (apart from flu) is absolute nonsense aswell. There are Numerous studies out at this point stating that lockdown has actually increased non covid deaths.

How come Sweden in a season of zero flu... surrounded by countries suppressing covid... have had just had their noticeably worst November for deaths since the Spanish Flu?

And how would things look if the rest of Scandinavia adopted the same approach as Sweden...

greyday

Miccoli wrote: »

How can you not go with the excess deaths "idea", it basically confirms that not locking down for covid did not cause an increase in deaths in Sweden this year. They carried on relatively normally and saw a normal year in terms of deaths.

You bring up their Scandinavian neighbours having much lower covid death rates, which is a fair point, but at the same time there are 23 countries in the world with higher covid death rates per capita than Sweden, many of whom had hard lockdowns. That shows Swedens covid strategy was not an absolute failure nor was is it a success in terms of limiting covid deaths. From what I've gathered though, there strategy was not based around having zero covid deaths like New Zealand. Rather it was about keeping as normal a functioning society as possible whilst not seeing a huge increase in deaths. The excess death statistics show they've managed that.

Your point on lockdown saving lives for non covid diseases (apart from flu) is absolute nonsense aswell. There are Numerous studies out at this point stating that lockdown has actually increased non covid deaths.

Show me the studies, other have mentioned suicide rates increasing but the data does not support that, two of swedens hospitals have now said they will not perform non emergency surgery which could cost lives in the future, not locking down has been of little or no benefit to them.

Miccoli

odyssey06 wrote: »

How come Sweden in a season of zero flu... surrounded by countries suppressing covid... have had just had their noticeably worst November for deaths since the Spanish Flu?

And how would things look if the rest of Scandinavia adopted the same approach as Sweden...

I'm not denying the existence of covid here, it evidently played a role in their excess deaths in November, but this is one month in a totally normal year overall. Also on the point of November excess deaths, I thought you didn't buy into the "idea" of excess deaths or is that only when it destroys your argument?

odyssey06

greyday wrote: »

Show me the studies, other have mentioned suicide rates increasing but the data does not support that, two of swedens hospitals have now said they will not perform non emergency surgery which could cost lives in the future, not locking down has been of little or no benefit to them.

Plus Sweden cancelled cancer screenings in the spring and referrals were down 50% ... its not just about lockdown having consequences. It is about how people and the health services react to the virus.

Sweden are trying to take a free ride on the efforts of their neighbours to keep this virus in check.

Miccoli

greyday wrote: »

Show me the studies, other have mentioned suicide rates increasing but the data does not support that, two of swedens hospitals have now said they will not perform non emergency surgery which could cost lives in the future, not locking down has been of little or no benefit to them.

Here are just two, plenty more to be found if you actually looked into it and didn't just form your opinions from whatever the Swedish King or rte say.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/d.miles/document/7702/IJCP%2520Miles%2520Stedman%2520and%2520Heald%2520Sep%25202020/%3FIJCP%2520Miles%2520Stedman%2520and%2520Heald%2520Sep%25202020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiuu_vC1tjtAhU2QRUIHWEMBawQFjAFegQIChAC&usg=AOvVaw2jUiAdYJ-0PmeXvx3tvMhL

https://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/news/2020/july/new-approach-to-recording-covid-deaths/

odyssey06

Miccoli wrote: »

I'm not denying the existence of covid here, it evidently played a role in their excess deaths in November, but this is one month in a totally normal year overall. Also on the point of November excess deaths, I thought you didn't buy into the "idea" of excess deaths or is that only when it destroys your argument?

Its not a totally normal year.
Its a year in which there is a huge global effort to suppress respiratory viruses.

odyssey06

Miccoli wrote: »

Here are just two, plenty more to be found if you actually looked into it and didn't just form your opinions from whatever the Swedish King or rte say.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/d.miles/document/7702/IJCP%2520Miles%2520Stedman%2520and%2520Heald%2520Sep%25202020/%3FIJCP%2520Miles%2520Stedman%2520and%2520Heald%2520Sep%25202020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiuu_vC1tjtAhU2QRUIHWEMBawQFjAFegQIChAC&usg=AOvVaw2jUiAdYJ-0PmeXvx3tvMhL

https://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/news/2020/july/new-approach-to-recording-covid-deaths/

The second link doesnt work.

And where in the 14 page report in first link does it state definitively that more lives were lost due to lockdown?

Miccoli

odyssey06 wrote: »

Its not a totally normal year.
Its a year in which there is a huge global effort to suppress respiratory viruses.

I was clearly referring to it being a totally normal year in terms of the Swedish death rate.

greyday

Miccoli wrote: »

Here are just two, plenty more to be found if you actually looked into it and didn't just form your opinions from whatever the Swedish King or rte say.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/d.miles/document/7702/IJCP%2520Miles%2520Stedman%2520and%2520Heald%2520Sep%25202020/%3FIJCP%2520Miles%2520Stedman%2520and%2520Heald%2520Sep%25202020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiuu_vC1tjtAhU2QRUIHWEMBawQFjAFegQIChAC&usg=AOvVaw2jUiAdYJ-0PmeXvx3tvMhL

https://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/news/2020/july/new-approach-to-recording-covid-deaths/

I didnt even read the kings statement, common sense tells me saving lives now and dealing with what the future holds is the least risky strategy, Sweden has given me more reason to believe this is correct, watch the next couple of months of covid deaths in Sweden to see how not introducing restrictions at the right time works out, look at the rise in our cases since easing restrictions was introduced, look at N Ireland who didnt adhere to lockdown rules, look at all the countties that locked down too late when the weather changed.

Miccoli

greyday wrote: »

I didnt even read the kings statement, common sense tells me saving lives now and dealing with what the future holds is the least risky strategy, Sweden has given me more reason to believe this is correct, watch the next couple of months of covid deaths in Sweden to see how not introducing restrictions at the right time works out, look at the rise in our cases since easing restrictions was introduced, look at N Ireland who didnt adhere to lockdown rules, look at all the countties that locked down too late when the weather changed.

Northern Ireland is just out of a 2 week "circuit breaker" lockdown, do you have any idea what your are talking about at this stage.

odyssey06

Miccoli wrote: »

I was clearly referring to it being a totally normal year in terms of the Swedish death rate.

Which is a factor of the suppression of respiratory viruses by other countries.

And I dont think by year end it will be a normal year after the spike in November... and the cases seeded now

charlie14

Miccoli wrote: »

We've likely seen 12 months of covid in Sweden already considering it's been confirmed to have been in the UK, France and Spain since December of 2019, so your point doesn't really add up.

There death rates were lower in Q3 than previous years with no lockdowns and covid rampant apparently, so how did there failure of a strategy manage that?

Can't help but feel people are somewhat dissapointed that Sweden has seen a completely normal year in terms of deaths, despite the apocalyptic predictions made back in March when they didn't lockdown.

Sweden`s weekly deaths for all of the first 12 weeks of 2020 were lower than the corresponding average 12 weeks for the previous five year and their first Covid-19 death was not until March 11th.



In 2019 total deaths were 88,766. (Ten year average is 90,654) This year by December 11th. deaths are 89,491.
Sweden`s in a normal year, are 1,750 death per week and there are still three weeks left in this year.

Unfortunately for Sweden I cannot see this being a completely normal year in terms of deaths.

greyday

Miccoli wrote: »

Northern Ireland is just out of a 2 week "circuit breaker" lockdown, do you have any idea what your are talking about at this stage.

They paid no attention whatsoever to the rules, do you have any clue of what is happening on the ground or anything to that has happened witb countries that took action on time?

joeysoap

Miccoli wrote: »

Northern Ireland is just out of a 2 week "circuit breaker" lockdown, do you have any idea what your are talking about at this stage.

Pity they didn’t pass any heed to it. We now have inter county traveling., car parks in Dundalk were liberally sprinkled with northern registered cars during their ‘ circuit breaker’ ’, and it hasn’t changed. They don’t wear masks either when shopping. Regulations / rules/ recommendations are not for them. Wait till January.

biko

Sweden rolls out series of new coronavirus measures, including face masks

Sweden will recommend face masks on public transport at certain times, said Prime Minister Stefan Löfven as he announced a series of new coronavirus measures on Friday afternoon

And all non-essential public services run by the state, municipalities and regions will close with immediate effect, and will remain closed until January 24th – this includes for example swimming pools, sports centres and museums, said Löfven.

All employers are also urged to let non-essential staff work from home until January 24th.

https://www.thelocal.se/20201218/swedish-prime-minister-stefan-lofven-press-conference-coronavirus

Bit cynical

odyssey06 wrote: »

The second link doesnt work.

And where in the 14 page report in first link does it state definitively that more lives were lost due to lockdown?

In the conclusion at the end it says:

On that basis and taking a wide range of scenarios of costs and benefits of severe restrictions, we find the lockdown has consistently generated costs that are greater—and often dramatically greater—than possible benefits.

odyssey06

Bit cynical wrote: »

In the conclusion at the end it says:

On that basis and taking a wide range of scenarios of costs and benefits of severe restrictions, we find the lockdown has consistently generated costs that are greater—and often dramatically greater—than possible benefits.

So nowhere does it state that more lives were lost?
Because that was the question the report was supposed to unequivocally answer.

The report places the value of a life year at £30000, or one years annual salary in Ireland.
So if someone on 80k lost their job for a year because of the virus this report would treat that as a greater cost than someone dying from covid?

mcsean2163

odyssey06 wrote: »

So nowhere does it state that more lives were lost?
Because that was the question the report was supposed to unequivocally answer.

The report places the value of a life year at £30000, or one years annual salary in Ireland.
So if someone on 80k lost their job for a year because of the virus this report would treat that as a greater cost than someone dying from covid?

That's not at all how qaly works, if for example you are 30 and a treatment could give you 30 years of extra life, then 30x£30k. That's essentially how health services budget in the actual real world.

I can't believe this crap is still going on, people dying alone in hospitals and nursing homes with no family because of the fear of catching a coronavirus. Look at the statistics, 20 people under 45 in Ireland dead. It's absolutely ridiculous and the opposite of what one might consider humane/ Christian.

Life is full of risks. We might as well insist the sun doesn't set each day and then have horrified news bulletins every night about the sun setting.

odyssey06

mcsean2163 wrote: »

That's not at all how qaly works, if for example you are 30 and a treatment could give you 30 years of extra life, then 30x£30k. That's essentially how health services budget in the actual real world.

I can't believe this crap is still going on, people dying alone in hospitals and nursing homes with no family because of the fear of catching a coronavirus. Look at the statistics, 20 people under 45 in Ireland dead. It's absolutely ridiculous and the opposite of what one might consider humane/ Christian.

Life is full of risks. We might as well insist the sun doesn't set each day and then have horrified news bulletins every night about the sun setting.

I said life year.
Do you consider one year less of life to be the equivalent of e.g. someone on 80000 a year being unemployed for a year?
When a 60 or 70 or 80 year old comes into hospital with pneumonia, or a heart attack does someone crunch the numbers before putting them in ICU based on a QALY figure?

Regardless, the report was supposed to show the lockdown cost more lives than it saves. It shows no such thing.

And people are dying in hospital FROM coronavirus.
Someone under 45 can put someone 55 into ICU with it and an 80 year old into the grave.
The virus exploits our humanity to spread.

whippet

Speaking again to my brother in Sweden ... he has no confidence in anything he hears or reads in the local media ... claims that event the journalists are burying their heads in the sand claiming that no one could have seen what was coming (apart from the rest of the world) ... there is a ingrained national pride that won’t allow them to fully admit they made a shambles of it.

He has now locked down in his farm with the family and in-laws with enough supplies until Feb and has no intention of leaving his land.